It’s no wonder that the Chamber of Commerce, feared by Barack Obama, is ready to spend another $1.25 million educating Americans about the dismal failure that Babs Boxer’s 28 years in DC have been. Since Carly Fiorina started her ad offensive and kept piling on, the polls have been moving. The television barrage has come just at the right time. While a month ago it | Read More »
Since Democrat Joe Manchin, West Virginia Governor and Senate candidate, literally shot a copy of the “Cap and Trade” bill that DC Democrats tend to support, it’s been clear that Republican John Raese’s easy days of running against Barack Obama were going to get harder. But the new Orion Strategies poll for Marshall University of the race just isn’t credible.
As I’ve not been shy about saying, I have an emotional attachment to the California Senate race. I live here, I’ve always lived here, and in fact Democrat Barbara Boxer was first elected to the Senate when I was first beginning to follow politics, back when I was 14 years old. So I knew the television ad campaigns would make or break the race for | Read More »
I still have the Washington Senate race as one of the four closest, despite Republican Dino Rossi taking a decent lead over Democrat Patty Murray in recent polling. This is why: both candidates have been capable of rattling off good polls, and one new result at any time can come out in favor of either candidate.
Later today I will find out what my Senate projection says are the four closest Senate races are, but for now, here are what I think those four currently are, and the latest polling on each: Illinois between Democrat Alexi Giannoulias and Republican Mark Kirk, Nevada between Republican Sharron Angle and Democrat Harry Reid, Washington between Democrat Patty Murray and Republican Dino Rossi, and West | Read More »
Carly Fiorina is still fighting hard against No Ma’am Boxer, and it’s good to see. I like this one, it’s short and it’s simple. It takes extra work to cut your typical online ad down to a 30 second (minus BCRA requirement) slam, and done well it matters:
Good evening. We have a great deal of new polling that’s flooded in. Much of it is interesting too, so rather than pick and choose which polls I’ll cover in depth and which I will omit, instead I’ll give a quick look at all the good ones. We’ve got Senate races in Nevada, Connecticut, West Virginia, Ohio, New York, Missouri, and Delaware, plus races for | Read More »
Back when Democrat Patty Murray got several good polls all at once, taking nearly double digit leads over Republican Dino Rossi in the Washington Senate race, I didn’t think it was a fundamental shift of public opinion. I called it a “good week,” and when her leads dropped, I said the race was returning to a tie. The new Rasmussen suggests I was right and | Read More »
Wisconsin is traditionally the most Progressive state in America. Progressives win there. Progressives have long won there. Progressives have won there even in years when they lost in much of America. Wisconsin even went in for the La Follette-founded Progressive Party, making it a highly successful third party within the state for about a decade. So I’m just at a loss for words as to | Read More »
Do you want to beat Harry Reid, and on top of that elect a true TEA party candidate to the United States Senate? We’re capable of doing that in Nevada. Sharron Angle has withstood so much pressure both before and after the primary, so many bad polls that have been underestimating her from day one, and she’s come out of it all keeping the race | Read More »
The Illinois Senate race keeps going back and forth. Republican Mark Kirk led a while, then Democrat Alexi Giannoulias took it back, but now having won three consecutive polls including PPP’s latest, it seems that Kirk is definitely on top again. It’s so close though that the polling of third party candidates is a serious issue. It may not matter in the end, though.
Some states get seven or eight polls of their Senate races. West Virginia has had two: Public Policy Polling and Rasmussen Reports. And honestly it seems that we were lucky to get PPP to jump in there. But now that Rasmussen’s latest is out, it’s official: Republican John Raese leads all the current polling over Democrat Joe Manchin.
This new poll of the California races by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner and American Viewpoint for USC and the LA Times has been discussed from one side of the Internet to the other, and back again. But I wouldn’t be doing my job if I let it go without chiming in, now would I? Of course not. So let’s dig in.
The last SurveyUSA poll of the Kentucky Senate race showed Republican Randal Paul running away with it from Democrat Jack Conway. However the new one tells a completely different story in its top line. When two polls by the same firm of the same race differ by that much, there has to be a story behind the story. Fortunately SurveyUSA’s detailed public reports make it | Read More »
Barbara Boxer, having been in Congress for 28 years, is a clear expert on where to go, and what to see, on the taxpayer dime. Here’s a great new site showing her expertise as compiled in Boxer’s new book: Five Places to See Before You Retire: A Senator’s Junket List. Also make sure to help her pick a retirement spot for when Carly Fiorina charges | Read More »
Here we go. Just when I started to think she needs to kick things up a notch, Carly Fiorina has taken to the air against Babs Boxer statewide. The ad is called “Sir,” and introduces all Californians to Ma’am’s incredible arrogance:
A flood of new polls about New York Senate races came out today. Chuck Schumer still looks safe, but the polling is variable on the special election between Republican Joe DioGuardi and Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand. We’re now beyond the idea that only one poll, one time showed the special election to be competitive. Polls showing a Gillibrand blowout are now the minority.
Being just one man trying to cover 435 House races, 37 Senate races, a few dozen more states electing Governors, plus some of the technical and mathematical aspects of polling, I tend not to post on races that aren’t competitive. So it’s surprising to me that I now have not one, but two New York polls to discuss today: Quinnipiac on the Governor’s race and | Read More »
Along with West Virginia, Wisconsin I wanted to see more polling in. Rasmussen Reports has been the lone voice up there polling again and again, showing these key races competitive while the rest of the polling world passed on by. PPP went there for Daily Kos finally, and now we get that critical second opinion on the races to see if they are as competitive | Read More »
I was going nuts watching West Virginia get almost no polling, even as Rasmussen Reports repeatedly showed the race close. Well I need not pull my hair out any longer, as Public Policy Polling hit the race. And once again, the theory of a Rasmussen “House Effect” for Republicans is called into question.
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