Murkowski on the ballot would not threaten Miller
Rasmussen Reports polled the hypothetical three way matchup for Alaska Senate between Republican Joe Miller, Democrat Scott McAdams, and newly minted independent Lisa Murkowski. This is clearly the best case scenario for Murkowski as she actually won’t be on the ballot, but even in this case, the result is not changed from the previous poll.
It’s not us who should be afraid about California
Last month there was a real shift in the California Senate polling. After the primary Babs Boxer was terribly underperforming her past elections, but she was at least ahead consistently. But starting in August, Carly Fiorina started taking leads. Some say that the new PPP poll is reason to worry, but I don’t. PPP is a generally honest, reliable pollster in my experience, but that | Read More »
Johnson and Walker extend leads in Wisconsin
Daily Kos and Public Policy Polling have hinted on Twitter that they have a new Wisconsin poll coming, which I am glad of because I’ve long wanted to see a second opinion in that state, but I’d like to start the week by hitting a pair of polls I missed while I was in Austin over the weekend: Rasmussen Reports on the Wisconsin Senate race | Read More »
Checking in on Washington
I’m sensing great interest in recent Washington polling. The Elway Poll I’m going to ignore for now, as I’ve picked it apart in the past, and Real Clear Politics had a note on it as well, so I’ll look more closely at the new Rasmussen Reports poll, which shows Democrat Patty Murray retaking the lead from Republican Dino Rossi.
The first post-primary poll in New Hampshire
If I’m going to break my rule and talk about Delaware right away, then I might as well do the same and cover the new Rasmussen poll on New Hampshire, which is the first post-primary poll of that Senate race between Republican nominee Kelly Ayotte and Democrat Paul Hodes. For a while there it wasn’t sure we’d get this matchup after all, but here we | Read More »
Dudley staying close, Wyden staying safe
Candidates matter. Even in a wave year, some candidates on the losing side will have no trouble. Dianne Feinstein was an example of that in 1994, and Democrat Ron Wyden appears to be one in 2010, as he is comfortable over Republican Jim Huffman in the latest SurveyUSA poll even as that poll and the Riley poll both have Republican Chris Dudley highly competitive for | Read More »
, Chris Dudley
, Jim Huffman
, John Kitzhaber
, Rasmussen Reports
, Riley Research
, Ron Wyden
The first post-primary poll in Delaware
I normally like to let these races rest a week before I start looking into the polling, but thanks to one pollster sitting on a pre-primary poll to drop the bomb after the primary, I thought I’d hit today the actual first post-primary poll of the race between Democrat Chris Coons and Republican Christine O’Donnell.
A rainbow of polls in Nevada
Real Clear Politics showed 21 polls yesterday, plus we’re already at 5 today, so I’m grateful that some of them can be done in batches as with this bunch on the Nevada Senate race from Ipsos for Reuters, Rasmussen Reports, and POR for Fox News. If we color Republican advantages in red, leads for Democrats in blue, and ties in green, then this set is | Read More »
No progress for Jack Conway
The last time Public Policy Polling hit the Kentucky Senate race, Republican Randal Paul had squandered a huge lead. Democrat Jack Conway had pulled within 7 in the Rasmussen poll back at the end of June, and he was even tied in the PPP poll of Registered Voters. PPP (this time for Daily Kos) is polling Likely Voters now, and it’s not good news for | Read More »
Blumenthal’s closest shave yet
Quinnipiac has released this month’s poll for the Connecticut Senate race. Now we turn to those who say Rasmussen’s “House Effect” is repsonsible for Democrat Richard Blumenthal’s surprisingly weak leads against Republican Linda McMahon, because Quinnipiac has the race even closer than Rasmussen does.
Boxer doing triage in California?
The word “triage” keeps coming up in talk of Democrat strategy lately, as the Democrats have to give up seats or even whole states for dead, leaving candidates to fend for themselves (presumably to fail). Barbara Boxer is continuing that trend. She has a new television ad out, which the Sacramento Bee points out is running in “the Sacramento, San Francisco, Los Angeles and San | Read More »
, Barbara Boxer
, Carly Fiorina
, Central Valley
, Sacramento Bee
Kaboom, part two: Lamontagne closing on Ayotte
If this isn’t the most exciting and competitive year for Republican primaries of all time, it has to be close. Ovide Lamontagne had faded far behind Kelly Ayotte in the New Hampshire Senate primary, but he’s been making a comeback. And now Public Policy Polling has him truly competitive. And to think he looked like spoiler bait once upon a time!
Kaboom, part one: O’Donnell over Castle
I said twice before that Christine O’Donnell’s big challenge in the Delaware Republican primary for Senate was that she needed to give the voters a reason to vote for her over the popular Mike Castle. For the whole primary season, she’d failed at that. Judging by the new PPP poll, she’s very recently had great success. She leads.
And now the mirror image of North Carolina: Connecticut
Much as Richard Burr has underperformed in the view of many, so too is Democrat Richard Blumenthal having more trouble than expected to shake Republican Linda McMahon in the Connecticut Senate race. And while it is Rasmussen’s second consecutive single-digit gap that inspires this post, Quinnipiac also has it at 10, a long way from the D+41 of January.
Rare good news for Richard Burr
Normally when I’m skeptical of a poll it’s because it’s from a firm I don’t trust or because I don’t think its methodology makes it predictive of the actual election. But here we have Rasmussen Reports polling likely voters, and it’s by far the best poll I’ve seen for Republican Richard Burr in the North Carolina Senate race against Democrat Elaine Marshall.
Robin Carnahan is in real trouble
It’s already bad enough for Democrat Robin Carnahan that she hasn’t led a poll this year, but since primaries Republican Roy Blunt’s lead has been growing. In the likely voter polls he now leads by 6, 7, and now 10 in the latest Rasmussen.
Sometimes a candidate is more than we expect
During the California Senate primary, my major criticisms of Carly Fiorina were that she had no public track record to back her on the issues, and that as a novice campaigner she was liable to make mistakes and lose a winnable race. During the race I didn’t quite give her the Tom Campbell treatment, but I gave Chuck DeVore all the support I could. During | Read More »
, Barack Obama
, Bill Brady
, Carly Fiorina
, Charlie Crist
, Chuck DeVore
, Harry Reid
, Kendrick Meek
, Marco Rubio
, Mark Kirk
, Sharron Angle
, Tom Campbell
Rasmussen: Castle greatly outperforms O’Donnell
I’m definitely a latecomer to following the Delaware Senate primary between Republicans Mike Castle and Christine O’Donnell, but now that I’m aware of it, it’s striking to me just how differently the two candidates perform in the new Rasmussen poll featuring each candidate against Democrat Chris Coons.
SurveyUSA: Paul well ahead in Kentucky
SurveyUSA is no fly-by-night operation in polling. They’ve been around a while, they have a reputation, and a great many newspapers seem use them to poll local House races. So we can’t dismiss their continuing series of polls which look very good for Republicans, including this new Kentucky Senate poll for the Louisville Courier-Journal with Republican Randal Paul seeming to overwhelm Democrat Jack Conway.