New Hampshire apparently tries to hard in Presidential years to have its primaries first, that it tires and has to have its Senate primaries last. So we’re still on primary watch for that state, and it looks like the Republican race has shifted again. Kelly Ayotte still leads the primary race to decide Democrat Paul Hodes’s opponent, but it appears the race for second is | Read More »
When the first major post-primary poll came out for the Washington Senate race, some questioned whether it was skewed toward Republican Dino Rossi over Democrat Patty Murray, or if it was simply an outlier. But now we have confirmation that Rossi does appear to have a lead at this point, though perhaps not as large as SurveyUSA showed.
All the talk in your typical Senate analysis this year has assumed Republican Mike Castle will beat Democrat Chris Coons in the Delaware Senate race, but the fact is there’s still a GOP primary in progress. It’s forgivable to forget about that primary when polling of the primary is scarce, and PPP and Rasmussen hold Coons under 40, but let’s extrapolate from the PPP poll | Read More »
Public Policy Polling jumped out ahead to poll the Alaska Senate race even as Republican Lisa Murkowski tries to drag out her primary defeat at the hands of Joe Miller. PPP also checked up on what might happen if Murkowski somehow were able to dislodge the Libertarian nominee and take that party’s line on the ballot in November.
Busy day today, but I couldn’t let go without comment this new poll by Missouri State University for KY3 of the Missouri Senate race. Even if its findings weren’t entirely out of step with the rest of the polling world, the details of the poll carry a number of warnings that it’s not very accurate.
When Sharron Angle came out of the Republican primary in Nevada, oddly enough she was vulnerable. She got no unity bounce, instead taking a stream of attacks from Republicans nationwide. As a result, Harry Reid went on the air for the knockout. He didn’t get it. Even the new Mason Dixon/LVRJ poll has stabilized.
Rasmussen Reports has two new polls out: one on the race for Governor between Democrat Jerry Brown and Republican Meg Whitman, and the other on the Senate race between Democrat Barbara Boxer and Republican Carly Fiorina. I don’t think the results they show are compatible. If one is right, I think the other is wrong.
So 538 moved to the New York Times this morning and in the process made Marco Rubio the favorite finally. But seriously, my issue with Nate Silver today comes from the old site and specifically, his primary night commentary.
Despite a rash of independents and party switches in Florida, tomorrow there are still two meaningful primaries at the top of the ticket. For the Democrats, tomorrow they choose between Bill Clinton-backed Kendrick Meek, and wealthy challenger Jeff Greene for a Senate candidate. Republicans have to decide on a candidate for Governor between former Impeachment star Bill McCollum and wealthy challenger Rick Scott. With one | Read More »
In the Washington Senate primary, those candidates with an expressed preference for Democrats combined for 48.7% of the vote, with Patty Murray leading at 46.4%. Those candidates preferring Republicans combined for 49.7%, with Dino Rossi on top at 33.3%. And yet, looking at SurveyUSA’s poll, Republicans are coming out of the primary energized and unified, Democrats are depressed, and Independents are ready to try someone | Read More »
Some Senate seats I’ll worry about all the way to November, but today when I looked at the list of new polls out, I got a flood of races I’m pretty comfortable calling for the Republican, barring any new news of course.
Tired of Florida yet? Too bad! Just about every public pollster is hitting the state comprehensively, so like a hanging chad this race will stick around at least until next week. And after Quinnipiac yesterday went contrarian on the primaries, today the firm goes contrarian on the general.
Both Bill McCollum and Kendrick Meek have struck back against their respective challengers Rick Scott and Jeff Greene. Meek has campaigned hard with Bill Clinton, while McCollum has done different things depending on whom you ask. Regardless though, Quinnipiac shows both candidates on top as the Florida primary nears.
Good afternoon. My life gets much easier when polls agree, and that’s the state of the race for the Senate in Pennsylvania. We have two polls out directly comparing Republican Pat Toomey and Democrat Joe Sestak, as well as a poll on the Governor’s race. All three favor Pat Toomey by a healthy margin.
From Unlikely Voter: PPP has delivered a poll on the Missouri Senate race for Daily Kos, and I’m seeing genuine anger at the results, which are now filtered for those likely to vote in November. As Kos says, “So what’s going on? Our old friend, the intensity gap.”
From Unlikely Voter: According to Rasmussen’s latest, Rob Portman is holding a steady level of support in the Ohio Senate race. However the surge of support that Lee Fisher took after his primary win seems to be receding, which leaves Portman alone on top with a clear lead.
From Unlikely Voter: I theorized before that Pat Quinn would drag down Alexi Giannoulias in Illinois, with a rout for Governor having reverse coattails for Senate, and now Public Policy Polling seems to show the effects I predicted. A bad candidate for governor in a negative wave year is a terrible situation for a party to have, but that’s the Democrats in Illinois today.
Some may have questioned why, in my new Senate projection, I had Florida at a 55% chance to win for Republican Marco Rubio, when much of the polling has shown newly minted independent Charlie Crist with tiny leads. It’s because I saw this new poll from Mason Dixon which not only covered the primary the Democrats are holding, but the consequences of that primary on | Read More »
From Unlikely Voter: SurveyUSA polled the California statewide races for San Francisco’s KPIX, a television station for one of the most safe cities in the state for Democrats. This is Nancy Pelosi’s own district here. Any bias introduced into this poll won’t be from the right. So it’s notable when this poll shows Carly Fiorina and Meg Whitman ahead of Barbara Boxer and Jerry Brown.
From Unlikely Voter: The Illinois Senate race is already set to be an ugly war, only distinguished from France 1916 by the lack of chemical warfare. Both candidates are hated and have baggage that is not going to go away. Either one can win, though, judging by the polling I’ve seen. But if Republicans rally around a surging Bill Brady while Pat Quinn polls as | Read More »
![[RS]](/t/img/logo-footer.jpg){kind=logo}