Scott Walker would be bad news for Russ Feingold
From Unlikely Voter: Even in a wave election, some members of the losing party stand well in their own local elections. However one key trait of a wave election is that the losing party’s base is so discouraged that they fail to show up. So if this Rasmussen poll is right, I think the nomination of Scott Walker for Governor by Republicans would depress Democrats | Read More »
Missouri Senate race also opens up
From Unlikely Voter: In my estimation, Missouri Republicans have underperformed. The state doesn’t strike me as especially friendly to Democrats, and failed to swing for Obama, but Republicans there ought to do better than they have. I think Roy Blunt may be opening the kind of lead I expect in that state, after months of concern and close polling.
Ipsos: Portman pulling away from Fisher
From Unlikely Voter: I keep insisting the Ohio Senate race is going to be as drum tight as the Pennsylvania race, but polls like the Ipsos survey for Reuters may force me to re-think that. Especially when Rob Portman is showing a massive fundraising advantage, a 43-36 lead (MoE 4.3) over Lee Fisher among likely voters is serious news.
Battleground Senate Poll
From Unlikely Voter: In an open and credited aping of the Greenberg Quinlan Rosner House battleground polls, Public Opinion Strategies has conducted a massive Senate battleground poll. Politico has for us the summary and 150 pages of gory, numerical details. I’m going to see what sense I can make of it.
, New Hampshire
, Public Opinion Strategies
PPP on the Colorado Primaries
From Unlikely Voter: Colorado voters have primaries to attend to today, but PPP has one last primary poll to give us something to look at before the real polls close.
, Andrew Romanoff
, Dan Maes
, Jane Norton
, John Hickenlooper
, Ken Buck
, Michael Bennet
, Public Policy Polling
, Scott McInnis
I think Stephanie Herseth Sandlin’s finished
From Unlikely Voter: At-Large House races may get a disproportionate amount of attention and polling, but it is what it is. So Stephanie Herseth Sandlin’s polling troubles get the whole country’s attention, while a House incumbent in some other state might barely draw notice. And the South Dakota At-Large Representative is having serious problems. I just don’t see how she can win this.
, Dennis Daugaard
, John Thune
, Kristi Noem
, Rasmussen Reports
, Scott Heidepreim
, South Dakota
, Stephanie Herseth Sandlin
Barbara Boxer still leading, still vulnerable
From Unlikely Voter: Carly Fiorina’s support continues in a band of 38-43 in the new Rasmussen poll of the California Senate race, while Barbara Boxer fails to reach 50. Boxer strikes me as the Democrats’ counterpart to Richard Burr: She really ought to be doing better, but she’s letting her opponent hang around.
Corbett steady as Toomey and Sestak joust
From Unlikely Voter: While the Pennsylvania Senate race has lived up to my expectations of volatility (Rasmussen has swing from Pat Toomey +8 to Joe Sestak +4 back to Toomey +6 most recently), the race for Governor has been pretty boring. No matter how many times this race gets polled, Republican Tom Corbett defies the recent partisan trend of Pennsylvania and consistently leads Democrat Dan | Read More »
Daylight in the Florida Primaries
From Unlikely voter: Florida is a large and aggressively contested state. It, of all states, demands the clarity of traditional horserace polling. We have been denied that opportunity yet, though, because the Republicans still need a candidate for Governor and the Democrats still need a candidate for Senate. Quinnpiac’s poll suggests we may get answers soon, as late entering political novices Rick Scott and Jeff | Read More »
, Alex Sink
, Bill McCollum
, Bud Chiles
, Charlie Crist
, Jeff Greene
, Kendrick Meek
, Marco Rubio
, Quinnipiac University
, Rick Scott
Planned Parenthood is coming, so let’s hold the line
They’re coming. Planned Parenthood is probably the most successful private vendor of death since Tesch und Stabenow m.b.H. made a killing selling Zyklon B to the Nazis. Planned Parenthood makes millions off of its abortion factories, and now the firm is on the political march for one of its dearest, but most vulnerable, allies in the Senate: Barbara Boxer. Will we do nothing, or will | Read More »
Ron Johnson is here to stay
From Unlikely Voter: When Ron Johnson showed a lead over Russ Feingold in the Wisconsin Senate polling, it could have been a fluky outlier result. The incumbent Democrat could still have been safe. Rasmussen again has Johnson ahead, though, so that theory is ruled out. The lead is tiny, but looks real.
Unpacking the California Senate polling
From Unlikely Voter: I’ve seen a few Republicans express serious doubts about Carly Fiorina after the latest California Senate poll from Public Policy Polling, but I think close inspection of that poll should give one pause before putting too much weight on its results. Besides, the other new poll, from the Public Policy Institute of California, deep down is as bad for Barbara Boxer as | Read More »
The primary heats up in New Hampshire
From Unlikely Voter: The big, scary to Republicans headline over at Hotline is Ayotte’s Unfavorable Ratings Rising in UNH Poll. I’m sure it’s true, but that’s what happens in contested primaries such as the one right now for Republicans in the New Hampshire Senate race. Right now, Bill Binnie’s fans don’t like Kelly Ayotte much, her fans don’t like him much.
Babs Boxer: Being a Senator is as tough as being a soldier
It’s no wonder Madam Senator Barbara Boxer (Democrat-California) demands to be called Senator: She thinks it’s a pretty tough job. In fact, she thinks it’s as tough as being “a policeman or a fireman or a veteran.” It gets better, too. She says “the pressure” that she and Maxine Waters feel creates the same bonding that the aforementioned police, fire, and military volunteers endure and | Read More »
Florida Senate Update
We have a pair of polls to look at updating us on the Florida Senate race, a general election carpet bomb from Rasmussen, and a peek at the race between the Democrats in the primary from PPP. Unfortunately, what we don’t have is any clarity.
Abortion will not drive California elections this year
The Orange County Register ran a doom and gloom article on abortion, saying that a Field Poll release suggests abortion will drive statewide elections this year. This is important because Carly Fiorina is a three-exception pro-life Republican. But there’s one big, honking problem with that theory, and the Register‘s Dena Bunis even mentions it: Among Boxer supporters, 82 percent support abortion rights. Of those who | Read More »
More good news for Rob Portman
Since I tried to tell Rob Portman his business, and suggested he was emphasizing the wrong issues in his campaign, two polls have come out covering the Ohio Senate race. Both by Rasmussen, the late June poll had Portman up 4, and now Rasmussen’s July poll has Portman up 6. I clearly picked the wrong moment to speak up!
Reid leads, or Mason Dixon understating Angle again?
In the runup to the Nevada GOP primary, Mason-Dixon and the Las Vegas Review-Journal understated Sharron Angle’s support by 8 points, and cut her 14 point win almost in half to 8. Now the pair releases their first post-primary poll. Are they gauging Angle’s support accurately this time?
Is Rasmussen biased toward the Republicans? Not in California.
Certain critics either say or imply that Rasmussen Reports is skewed toward Republicans, just because this cycle he predicted early that the 2010 electorate would look nothing like that of 2008. But that’s not the same as having a partisan bias, and in fact, comparing the latest Rasmussen poll of the California Senate race with SurveyUSA hints there is no such partisan bias to be | Read More »
Rubio battles back
For a while the polling of the Florida Senate race had many people thinking that Charlie Crist, newly minted Independent, was running away with it. I disagreed and assumed his bump in the polls was driven by heavy coverage of his party switch and of his oil spill inspections. Rasmussen’s latest just might bear that out as Marco Rubio takes a fresh lead.