Economics projects a 94 EV defeat for Barack Obama

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  February 3rd at 05:30 PM  | 

Over at the American Enterprise Institute, James Pethokoukis modeled the economy and the effect of the economy on the 2012 elections. He calculated what unemployment would look like under 28 different scenarios, varying both job and labor force growth rates to cover the range of possibilities, ad the results look bad if there’s any sort of return to the previous trend, should job growth rates | Read More »

Gallup: Generic ballot shows record Republican lead

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  August 30th at 05:30 PM  | 

I’ve had my ups and downs with Gallup (one might say the relationship is like the plot of the Gallup generic ballot itself!), but since they’ve been solidly running registered voter surveys again, the numbers have looked reasonable. But now they’re shocking us from the other direction by showing the Republicans having their largest ever lead in the generic ballot survey, showing a larger edge | Read More »

Simulating the major House ratings

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  August 24th at 09:18 PM  | 

As if the big Swingometer update wasn’t enough, I’m not done projecting the House today. Taking a cue from Patrick Ishmael I’m going to simulate today the elections based not just the latest seat-by-seat Cook Political Report ratings, but also on those of Congressional Quarterly’s, the Swing State Project’s, and Larry Sabato’s. Swingometer right now says R+52 from 2008. Ishmael right now also says R+52, | Read More »

Swingometer Update

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  August 24th at 07:00 AM  | 

The Florida primaries are today, but I’m not posting on them today. That way I have time to address – by popular demand* – all the new generic ballot polls, and see where the Swingometer is landing lately. As always, I’m using the trusty Real Clear Politics archives to find the polls. So let’s go.

Giannoulias leads, but Democrats deeply depressed

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  August 17th at 02:00 PM  | 

From Unlikely Voter: I theorized before that Pat Quinn would drag down Alexi Giannoulias in Illinois, with a rout for Governor having reverse coattails for Senate, and now Public Policy Polling seems to show the effects I predicted. A bad candidate for governor in a negative wave year is a terrible situation for a party to have, but that’s the Democrats in Illinois today.

Gallup retreats and I claim victory

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  August 3rd at 12:00 PM  | 

From Unlikely Voter: Some may recall when I questioned the recent Gallup generic ballot results with sharp language. I caught them passing off a poll of adults, with the shift toward the Democrats that usually entails, as a poll of registered voters. It got national media attention. It’s clear to me the message was received, because now in the first release after my criticism, the | Read More »

Rasmussen and Gallup generic ballots diverge

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  July 20th at 11:00 PM  | 

Until now, Gallup and Rasmussen Reports have generally pointed in the same direction with their generic ballot polls. If they’ve differed, it’s been in the magnitude. This week, that has changed. How big a difference is it, and what does the Swingometer say about it all? Let’s find out.

Swinging the Rasmussen Generic Ballot

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  July 13th at 08:30 AM  | 

Speaking of the Swingometer, let’s see what it says about Rasmussen’s latest Generic Congressional Ballot released on the 11th.

Swinging Democracy Corps’ Generic Ballot

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  July 1st at 05:30 PM  | 

(H/T to Liberty Central) So Greenberg Quinlan Rosner did another generic ballot for Democracy Corps, as Democrats try to find messages that will stem the Republican tide. But how are things looking now, and what does the Swingometer say about it?

Swingometer on the Rasmussen Generic Ballot

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  June 7th at 09:20 PM  | 

Rasmussen has a new generic ballot out, and that means it’s time to see how the Swingometer projects the election to go based on that result.

Gallup generic ballot suggests 45 seat Republican gain

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  June 1st at 06:37 PM  | 

The new Gallup generic ballot is out. Republicans have jumped to a 49-43 advantage, which National Review Online says is the largest Republican lead in 60 years. Given the historical accuracy of the Gallup generic ballot in midterm elections, let’s plug this result in to the Swingometer.

Swingometer now suggests 33 seat Republican gain

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  May 18th at 12:30 PM  | 

The new Gallup generic ballot is out. Last time, it was even: 46-46. The two times before that it was at 45-45. Now it’s at R 46-D 45. Democrats have not led since March. Gallup’s generic ballot is accurate in off year elections, so let’s see how that moves the Swingometer.