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We need to deny the Global Warming crowd the use of the word “Science”

 

One of my favorite movies is “The Princess Bride”, and in one of my favorite scenes, one of the characters says to another (one who is convinced that he’s the smartest man in the world) “you keep using that word.  I don’t think it means what you think it means”.  I find myself flashing on that every time I hear a liberal talk about the “science” of Manmade Global Warming.

I’m not a climatologist.  Technically, I’m not even a scientist.  What I am is an electrical engineer with training and experience in physics, computer modeling, and dynamical (control) system theory.  I’ve also had one article published in an engineering journal, and I’ve spent many years working with formal scientific documentation processes.  The scientific method and critical thinking are second nature to me.  I would have no problem putting up my credentials against those of Al Gore, Ted Turner, and Prince Charles. 

Although I consider myself a conservative, I’ve looked at AGW theory with what I consider an open, scientific mind.  What I’ve seen convinces me that we’re not only dealing with an erroneous theory, but with a worldwide scientific fraud of unprecedented proportions.  Actually, I should say “nearly unprecedented proportions”, as this bears an eerie similarity to the way the Nuclear Winter fraud was carried out nearly two decades ago (the key difference being that the people who perpetrated the Nuclear Winter hoax never found a way to further enrich politically well-connected financiers who would help maintain the fraud).

I could go on for a half hour about the holes in AGW theory, the abuses of the peer-review process, the absolutely outrageous behavior of the IPCC, and the outright scientific misconduct of the people who’ve staked their careers on something that can be fairly described as a crackpot theory.  I could explain how easy it is to bias a computer model to comply with your pre-determined outcome and how such a model will fail to reflect reality.  I could point out that there’s no actual proof that CO2 is causing the Earth (or, for that matter, Mars) to warm up.  I could I could ask them why there’s no evidence of the heat signature that a runaway greenhouse mechanism would cause. 

I could do all of these things, but the fact is that there’s nothing that will convince the alarmists that their pet hypothesis is wrong.

Why will we never convince them?  Well, for one thing, most of them don’t have the fundamental knowledge needed to even understand the problems with the theory.  We’re talking about people who’ve never solved a differential equation or calculated the phase shift of a feedback function, who don’t even know what an absorption spectrum is.  Trying to explain to them the effect of arbitrarily assigning positive magnitude to a major feedback channel in a computer model of a multivariable nonlinear dynamical system would be exactly as effective if done in Latin as in English.

Furthermore, these are people who might have studied the scientific method back in 6th or 7th grade, and haven’t given it a thought since.  They simply have no idea how well the AGW crowd has gamed the peer review process (or, for that matter, the grant process).  They don’t understand the incredible ethical lapse of Michael Mann not allowing anyone to see his source data, and then conveniently losing it.  They don’t understand the level of scientific misconduct that went into preparation of the IPCC report.  They don’t understand about the biases in the data collection, they don’t understand about statistical forcing in the analysis of the raw data. 

But the most important reason we’ll never convince them is this: they simply don’t care.  They don’t care where the theory came from, they don’t care if there are holes in it, they don’t care that there are better natural explanations.  They don’t care that the people who are flogging this theory the hardest stand to make billions through the stroke of a government pen.  They don’t even care that their “solution” will lock billions of people into lives of hopeless, grinding poverty in order to assuage their own nagging feeling of environmental guilt.

What they understand, and what they care about, is that they now have a set of beliefs that gives them comfort, defines their place in the universe, and gives them a sense of smug self-righteousness.  Better yet, it gives them an unassailable moral position from which they can tell other people how they should live.  I realize that I’m not the first person to accuse environmentalism of becoming a faux religion, but I find it fascinating that this new religion’s adherents have found a rationalization for all of the negative behaviors that are usually attributed to the worst kind religious zealot.

The point I want to make is that we need to start calling them out whenever they claim to have “science” on their side.  They don’t.  Politicians need to pointedly reference Al Gore’s degree in government management, or Prince Charles status as a complete dilettante.  When they trot out the “consensus” nonsense, we need to point out that consensus isn’t a scientific concept, and then ask them who exactly decided who was included in this “consensus”.  When they claim that the science is settled, we need to ask them which science, and how they know it’s settled, and who settled it.  When they claim that they’re the ones defending “real” science, we need to ask them how much of that science they understand.  And most importantly, we need to ask them what it would take to disprove the whole AGW theory.  Because if the answer is “nothing”, then we need to point out that they’ve crossed from science to theology.

COMMENTS

  • swvapatriot

    One of the aspects of a cult is to seek and maintain the group’s approval, mediated by its leader(s). Cults have a distorted view of reality which most normal, sane people readily recognize, but that they follow because, as you said, it gives their lives meaning and purpose. But the house is built upon sand and cannot survive the wind and floods of life.

    The “scientists” in the AGW cult are its self appointed high priests, alone initiated into the inscrutible mysteries of the religion. They mock and ridicule anyone who doesn’t defer to their knowledge of the mysteries as ignorant and unwashed peons. This is nothing but a resurrection of ancient gnosticism.

    The eventual problem for them is that, their prophesies will continue failing to deliver and will not match reality. It may take a few generations, but facts are facts, reality is reality, and this will one day be looked back upon and laughed at as the collective insanity that it is. Alchemy and bloodletting suffered similar fates.

    Finally, as the economic effects of policies begin to take their toll and have increasingly adverse effects upon economies, the public will rise up and say enough. When families have trouble heating their homes, feeding their kids, and finding enough fuel for even necessary transportation, they will rebel and elect leaders who are not of the cult to put a stop to it.

    The long path of history is toward liberty and freedom.

    ———————————————————————————————
    Give me liberty of give me death.

    • Next93

      My point is that we need to go on the offensive and not let them use “science” as a figleaf, particularly those who couldn’t explain the working of a BIC lighter.

      If they want thier theology, then they need to admit that it’s a theology.

  • http://stevemaley.com Steve Maley

    Computer modeling can be a useful tool for understanding the behavior of oil and gas reservoirs. The idea is to model the pressure and withdrawal history, and the sometimes-complicated interaction of liquids, gas phases and rocks to predict the future.

    “Can be.” It can also be horribly misused. A computer model that matches history perfectly can provide false confidence in its projections. History matches aren’t unique.

    Petroleum systems are finite and subject to a handful of well-understood physical processes. By comparison, global climate is horribly complex and not particularly well-understood; new interactions and effects are being discovered all the time. I have zero confidence in making sweeping policy changes based on the ultimate GIGO exercise.

    • Next93

      Beleive me, I’m in absolute agreement with you, but the true beleivers are still of the opinion that anything that comes out of a computer model is sanctified.

      Besides which, they really don’t care about facts like this. When they’re not fawning over thier pet climatologists, they’re far more likely to mock those of us with a scientific background.

      Trying to explain the limitations of computer modeling to someone with a sociology degree is like trying to teach an oyster to play the violin.

    • danielhill2008

      just watch this summer during hurricane season. The forecasters appy their “spaghetti” models to every storm, and after about one day out, the tracks diverge wildly. I don’t know exactly how they arrive at these models, but I would have to assume they input roughly the same set of data into all the computers, and let them do their thing(s). I’m sure global climate is a lot more complex than the conditions surrounding a tropical storm/hurricane, and they know where the storm is, and what the weather is in its vicinity.

      Computers don’t “know” anything, they make educated guesses based upon the input given, and when you fudge that, you got nothin’.

      • danielhill2008
        • http://impudent.edublogs.org/ kyle8

          who would come on Redstate and tell us what idiots we were for doubting the “settled science” of global warming?

          Funny, haven’t seen them for a while.

          • blooch

            He got blammed during the ClimateGate scandal when he sidled in here with his smirky attitude trying to perfume that pig, and Vlad got him to lose it. LOL

          • http://impudent.edublogs.org/ kyle8

            The other guy who I used to love was Brooksrob. That guy was particularly infuriating because he would go along with many of your points, but then he would just go back and repeat what he said in his original post.

      • davidappell

        Next93 wrote:
        > Beleive me, I?m in absolute agreement with you, but the true beleivers
        > are still of the opinion that anything that comes out of a computer model
        > is sanctified.

        Certainly not. Scientists know they have to test and verify their models — there is a long section in the IPCC Assessment Reports on exactly this subject. They put some trust in their models because they back-predict the past, as demonstrated in the IPCC 4th Assessment Report (2007) WG1 Ch 9 FAQ 9.2 Fig 1, p. 703 (bottom three graphs).

        Climate models show that natural forcings alone do not explain the climate of recent decades, but the inclusion of anthropogenic forces does.

        • Aaron Gardner
        • http://stevemaley.com Steve Maley

          Nice little cartoons.

          Those models are garbage in, garbage out, just like I said above. And I used my own name.

          Plenty of questions have been raised about the integrity of the data upon which these cartoons are built. Plenty of questions have also been raised about the integrity of the ‘scientists’ who built them, their commitment to the scientific method, and their commitment to an unbiased peer review process.

          Have you ever asked yourself why we need an IPCC? In what other field of endeavor do we need a panel of scientists, not to actually do research, but to compile, direct explain and defend the work of other researchers? In most branches of science, alternative viewpoints are aired and discussed, then they live and die on their own merits.

          No, climate science is too thoroughly polluted with the bias of the IPCC. After all, if the organization has “Climate Change” in the title, isn’t it pretty much a given that everyone who works there has already drunk the kool-aid?

        • Next93

          That would be the same IPCC report that voilated it’s own data sourcing rules and ignored review comments that it didn’t like? The same one that some of the authors admitted to inflating dire predictions to bring about political action? The one where an author who was mis-quoted stated that he was afraid his career would be ruined if he corrected them?

          THAT ipcc report?

      • mspector
    • earlgrey

      recall that the model is subject to some number of assumptions often to create boundarly or baseline conditions and in explaining what is happening in the atmosphere. those assumptions can be effected by what someone’s desired outcome may be.

      I also believe that most people have no clue as to how political the world of academic research can be. For whatever reason, scientists are assumed to have only noble goals, but that is not true of any profession.

      Finally and this isn’t necessarily to your point, but the very people that are singing the praises of their version of science now, were probably making fun of the techie geeks in high schools and skipping chemistry class.

    • donnybrooke

      a computer model is only as good as… well, the computer model. The National Weather Service actually has several different CMs,
      ( http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/ ) and they will all produce varying results with the SAME input data. So trusting
      a computer climate model, which is much more complicated, and
      data that is suspect, is folly.

    • davidappell

      Finrod wrote:
      > When they say that global warming ?science? is ?settled?, I point out
      > how the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age were settled
      > science too, and ask them for the evidence that would prove
      > that those *don?t* exist, as the warmists claim.

      Climate scientists certainly _do not_ claim that the MWP or LIA don’t exist.

      The MWP is an active area of paleoclimate research and there was a big conference on it just last fall. Most scientists think that the MWP existed but was localized to northern Europe, but there are uncertainties and paleoclimatologists are collecting more data and doing more analysis. It is an active area of research.

      All scientists agree that the LIA existed — in fact, the real question is why is doesn’t *still* exist and why temperatures have been rising since about 150 yrs ago, and esp in recent decades.

      In any case, these eras have little bearing on today’s questions because now we are anomalously perturbing the atmosphere by dumping a great deal of carbon into it, which did not happen before the Industrial Revolution.

      • Finrod

        If it was warmer during the MWP than it is now, how do you know that the warming now isn’t caused by the same thing that caused the MWP?

        Until you can settle that question, there can never be solid proof of anthropomorphic global warming.

        • davidappell

          By calculation. Scientist have shown that natural factors do not explain today’s climate, but that natural+manmade factors *do* explain it. Climate scientists have been doing this calculation for about three decades now, and they’ve found that they can’t quantitatively explain the last several decades of the earth’s climate without factoring in a strong anthropogenic component. The summary of this calculation is presented in the IPCC 4AR WG1 FAQ 2.1 Fig 2 p 136 (available at www.ipcc.ch). When climate scientists take the underlying factors and plug them into their best models, they *do* explain recent climate, but if and only if anthropogenic forces are included. Without them, recent climate cannot be explained. This is shown in detail in the IPCC 4AR WG1 Ch 9 FAQ 9.2 Fig 1, p. 703 (bottom three graphs).

          • Finrod

            Just because scientists today can’t explain the current climate based on natural factors does not prove that manmade factors are causing climate change, because the current climate could simply be too complex for existing models of natural factors.

            Using your logic, a caveman who encountered magnets would proclaim them to be magic and not a physical phenomenon.

          • davidappell

            Except that today’s models *do* work — they back-predict the past. Even models developed 20 yrs ago have done a fair job (for their time) of predicting the present. Models developed in the ancient ’60s already managed to predict the flow of water vapor in the atmosphere. Heck, a model developed with paper and pencil in 1896 demonstrated global warming from CO2.

            Besides, there are strong theoretical reasons to expect that CO2 will warm a planet.

            Sure, there always *might* be some unknown factor in any science. But you must work with what you know. And when what you know works — viz explains many observed phenomena and makes valid predictions — then we tend to attribute some truth to it.

          • Finrod

            If we could, it’s very possible that we’d find glitches in the models that don’t match up then either. If you develop the models after you have the data, of course they’re going to match. You’re using your models’ failure to predict the future to claim AGW, instead of looking for flaws in your models.

            You also have temperature vs CO2 wrong; rising CO2 levels trail rising temperatures, not the other way around like Al Gore claimed. This makes sense to anyone that’s opened a warm 2liter of Coca-Cola, put it in the fridge, and later found it to be flat because the CO2 evacuated when it was warm. There’s no physical evidence out there that CO2 causes rising temperatures instead of the other way around. There’s lots of ocean out there with lots of dissolved CO2 in it, after all.

          • davidappell

            Sometimes CO2 trails temperature, and sometimes it doesn’t. In this case (as in the PETM), there is an outside perturbation — a large slug of CO2 that is being artificially introduced into the system (human burning of fossil fuels).

            Again, we know that the extra CO2 in today’s atmosphere is not natural, from its radioactive signature.

            But, honestly, do you think tens of thousands of scientists haven’t thought of this and analyzed it inside-and-out over the decades?

          • Finrod

            I seriously doubt that there are that many actual ‘scientists’ trained and working in that field. Please provide justification for that, first.

            Second, the whole global warming theory dates from 1995. That’s a decade and a half, at most. Quit saying ‘decades’ when it’s NOT decades plural.

            Third, please provide a link to your claim that the CO2 in the atmosphere has a different radioactive signature that can only come from burning fossil fuels. You’re the only one I know of making that argument and I’m not about to accept that purely on your say-so.

            Fourth, there’s an awfully good correlation between historical air temperature and sunspots. Please show me why that isn’t a better explanation than yours: http://www.dakotavoice.com/2009/06/nasa-study-shows-sun-responsible-for-planet-warming/

            Fifth, the CRU threw away their original data and kept only their ‘adjusted’ data. This violates every principle of the scientific method, and puts any conclusions they’ve drawn from that data on very shaky ground: http://www.examiner.com/independent-in-columbia/cru-scientists-admit-they-threw-away-key-data-used-global-warming-calculations

            Sixth, there hasn’t even been any global warming for the last fifteen years! http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1250872/Climategate-U-turn-Astonishment-scientist-centre-global-warming-email-row-admits-data-organised.html

            Seventh, the Russians say that CRU distorted their data in order to exaggerate global warming: http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jamesdelingpole/100020126/climategate-goes-serial-now-the-russians-confirm-that-uk-climate-scientists-manipulated-data-to-exaggerate-global-warming/

            Eighth, here’s a report the EPA buried that one man rushed to put together in less than a week that exposes very large holes in global warming theory: http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2009/06/endangermentcommentsv7b1.pdf

            I’ve provided links. Where are yours?

          • nilram

            I bet he was refering to this: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2004/12/how-do-we-know-that-recent-cosub2sub-increases-are-due-to-human-activities-updated/

            I knew I had seen it somewhere. I thought it was 14C/12C. But apparently it’s 13C/12C.

            Their argument sounds good until you consider that most of the CO2 in the atmosphere comes from “burning” plant material (e.g. through digetstion.)

          • nilram

            Are you refering to the decrease of C-14 in relation to C-12?

            If so, the C-14 concentration of C-14 was artificially increased by nuclear testing in the 60′s and has been declining every since.

            http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_14

          • AzHat

            Is the source really important, or just the concentration?

            When you look up in the sky on a beautiful partly cloudy day, does it matter that they were formed by jets flying over? Are there more because more jets flew over? Or, is something else at play here?

            Think for a bit, don’t make me explain it further.

          • catt

            Models “back-predict” the past? Seriously? Back-predict?

            Can I sell you a subscription to a newsletter that back-predicts what the stock market did last week? Or back-predicts previous winners of the super bowl?

          • davidappell

            If you *did* develop a model of the stock market, the very first thing you would do is run it backwards using, as initial data, today’s numbers. If you had reasonably accurate results you would start to think there is something to your model. If you could not back-predict the past, using your model’s underlying principles and processes, you would not.

            Even simple models developed two decades ago (some even run on 386 PCs) did a fairly good job of predicting where we are today. See, for example, “Theory and Development of a One Dimensional Time Dependent Radiative Convective Climate Model.” R.M. MacKay and M.A.K. Khalil. Chemosphere 22(3-4), 383-417, 1991

            or

            “Global Climate Changes as Forecast by Goddard Institute for Space Studies Three-Dimensional Model,” J Hansen et al,
            JGR v93 n D8 pp 9341-9364 (Aug 20, 1988)
            http://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/docs/1988/1988_Hansen_etal.pdf

          • Next93

            At one time, aeronautical science couldn’t explain how bumblebees flew. Turned out that there was a factor (as I recall, it had to do with acoustical energy) that hadn’t been included in the models. No one at the time demanded that the government kill all bumblebees.

            Gotta love the logic chain that goes something like this:
            1. My computer model can’t match current temperatures (collected using really questionable techniques)
            2. We need to reverse the industrial revolution.
            QED (latin for “the science is settled”)

            Nowhere on the chain does anyone stop to say “maybe my datasets are bad”, or “maybe my understanding of the science is incomplete”, or “maybe assumptions in my model are wrong” or “maybe there’s a code error in this model that I refuse to let anyone double-check”.

          • acat

            That they give their fudge a label with political usefulness is separate from the fact that the model is full of crap.

            Mew

  • ntrepid

    ?What they understand, and what they care about, is that they now have a set of beliefs that gives them comfort, defines their place in the universe, and gives them a sense of smug self-righteousness. Better yet, it gives them an unassailable moral position from which they can tell other people how they should live.?

    Excellent diary. (Where were you during the Great Redstate Weekend Global Warming Debates of 2006?)

    Ntrepid
    Proud Redstate Member since April 2006??

  • Finrod

    When they say that global warming ‘science’ is ‘settled’, I point out how the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age were settled science too, and ask them for the evidence that would prove that those *don’t* exist, as the warmists claim.

    • The_Gadfly

      they existed, it is just that they were “only localized” events that didn’t affect the overall arc toward our current summer of 105 degree temperatures.

      [grin]

      • Finrod

        I then ask them to explain http://www.john-daly.com/hockey/hockey.htm which shows either the MWP or the LIA showing up in over a dozen different spots around the world.

    • Red_in_SC

      I like the term Warmers better. It fits in with Truthers, Birthers, etc. and reminds me of fuzzy things you wear to make you more comfortable.

  • runner12

    I tried to recommend, but it won’t let me. My favorite point that you made was the truth that the AGW crowd has completely abandoned the Scientific Method.

    They simply manipulate facts and studies to support their views, and make a mockery of the word “scientist”.

    • 6eorge Jetson

      ask him to explain what it means to reject the null hypothesis.

      I’m guessing at least 4/5 will be absolutely stumped.

      • davidappell

        Sound and fury, signifying nothing. You somehow *could* disprove what decades of professional scientists have shown, what the Earth is showing us, and what national academies across the world have verified, but you can’t be bothered to actually offer the evidence. Instead you just throw around innuendo and slurs and stomp your feet and we’re supposed to be convinced? From someone who won’t sign their name to their opinion?

        The more these kinds of positions are taken and these kind of articles appear, the more sure you can be that there really is something to human-induced climate change.

        • donnybrooke

          http://pielkeclimatesci.wordpress.com/2011/04/27/another-publication-of-an-unverifiable-multi-decadal-climate-prediction-cold-spells-in-a-warming-world/

          Anything else?

          • donnybrooke

            Your pardon, the link should have been

            http://pielkeclimatesci.wordpress.com/category/climate-science-misconceptions/

            Thank you.

          • davidappell

            In science, one link from a few days ago proves nothing. Nor does one paper. Science is a long-term process, requiring considerable back-and-forth, expert review and re-review, correction and re-correction, and lots of digestion and analysis. In this way it is very unlike blogging.

            Pielke Sr is a good scientist, but consistently in the minority. So, we?ll see. Like all scientists, what he writes isn?t holy writ, and one paper or blog post is certainly not going to undo decades and decades of climate science – tens of thousands of results and papers by thousands of scientists.

            By the way, Pielke Sr accepts AGW, saying: ??the evidence of a human fingerprint on the global and regional climate is incontrovertible as clearly illustrated in the National Research Council report and in our research papers.? He differs on the details of its causes, believing that land use changes have been under emphasized.

          • donnybrooke

            Perhaps you should read his conclusions:

            http://pielkeclimatesci.wordpress.com/main-conclusions-2/

            Science is a long term process. Too bad the peer review, correction and analysis for this area has been so badly thwarted and
            mishandled.

            BTW, saying he is in the “minority” is not proof that he IS in the minority. Neither is what other scientists write holy writ. All the writings of all the sages of several thousand years will not prove the earth is flat.

            Your data is flawed. Your computer models are flawed. Your conclusions are flawed.

          • davidappell

            > Your data is flawed. Your computer models are flawed. Your
            > conclusions are flawed.

            As I said, the more these kind of vapid, unconvincing, unscientific statements are offered the more clearly they are rooted in nothing but ideology, and the more it is certain that there really is a huge problem here.

          • donnybrooke

            Vapid, unconvincing, unscientific statements are offered the more clearly they rooted in nothing but ideology , but not from my side. Read your own first post above.

            You appear to be a believer in AGW. I maintain a healthy skepticism.

            Or would you rather discuss how many angels may dance on the head of a pin?

        • Next93

          One simple question – what kind of “proof” would move you off of your certain beleif in AGW? Lack of upper atmosphere warming? Simultaneous warming of two other planets in the solar system? A higher correlation between sun spots and temperature than between CO2 and temperature? Evidence that CO2 buildup is a result of warming and not a cause? Evidence that cloud formation is a negative feedback channel, and not a positive one? The inability of your computer models to actually model known past events? The completely dismal track record of all predictions based on your computer models? How about the sheer improbability that a natural dynamical system so lacking in robustness wouldn’t have been jogged into runaway eons ago?

          Lets face it, any one of these should have discredited this theory years ago. Yet none of this has done the trick, and nothing ever will. Probably 98% of all climate alarmists (like Prince Charles) have no idea what these things even mean, and most of the other 2% stand to make money or gain power by having the government impose Green-ness on the rest of us.

          You people are the equivalent of bigfoot beleivers, and with about the same quality of “proof”. You’re the liberal version of creation “science”, with one notable difference; the creationists are only asking for equal time in the textbooks, while you people want to essentially reverse the industrial revolution. You won’t be happy until you’ve turned poverty into a tradable commodity in order to appease your superstition with a “solution” that wouldn’t actually “solve” your crisis even if it existed.

          Your political agenda is far more important to you than any set of facts that anyone could bring to bear.

    • lineholder

      They don’t take a hypothesis and then seek to prove or disprove it (which is one of the basics in the use of scientific method.) They define a desired outcome, then establish a base of data that is used to substantiate their desired outcome.

  • speaksoftly124

    its impressive how you are able to make such claims without backing up, well… anything that you said. Quite a feat.

    • Next93

      I’m not going to debate the “science” with anyone who’s not capable of understaning the science. This is quantatively different than Al Gore refusing to debate the science with anyone who DOES understand the science.

      Have YOU ever solved a differential equation? Have you written a computer simulation? Do you know what stability criteria are for dynamical systems? Do you know the difference between a positive and negative feedback mechanism? Have you seen a system in runaway (coming for you, as I have)? Or are you simply another warm-bot quoting unknown and unnamed “scientists” just like some voodoo witch doctor invoking his mystical spirits?

      There’s absolutely NO sense in trying to argue the science with someone who will simply tell me that there are “thousands and thousands of scientists over decades and decades” who disagree with me.

      • speaksoftly124

        I have solved a differential equation, though, admittedly simple ones. But no, I am not a scientist, but I have a pretty good grasp on scientific methods and general information.

        But, like I said, I am not a scientist, so in issues of science I usually defer to the consensus opinion. I believe that evolution is real, and I have a general understanding of the mechanisms behind it, but its not because I am an evolutionary scientist, but because a vast array of experts say that it is real. Likewise, I have a basic understanding of Climate Change, but I only believe that it is real because most scientist who study it say that it is real.
        http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_opinion_on_climate_change#Statements_by_organizationshttp://en.wikipedia.org

        Now, I wasn’t complaining about you not giving evidence to support your dissent from the consensus opinion, as I doubt I would fully understand overly-technical information. I do, however, disagree with your statements about it being a vast conspiracy, about how scientist have gamed the peer-review system, ect. ect. without any evidence. It seems to me like you would just say that anything evidence that disagrees with your conclusion is just part of that conspiracy, or what have you, and that seems, to me, to be the cheap way of avoiding actually arguing.

        • Next93

          When you say “the majority” of scientists, who exactly are you incluing? If you’re not qualified to understand the science, you’re not qualified to choose who’s an expert and who’s fighting for a slice of the goernment’s Green pie. You also don’t know how many people are *not* taking a stand because they don’t want to be seen as “deniers”.

          This is exactly what happened in the Nuclear Winter hoax; no one wanted to be seen as being “pro-nuclear war”, so it was years before anyone pointed out the fact that the TTAPS computer model had been (intentionally and systematically, IMHO) “simplified” to remove any effects that might move the result away from the pre-selected output.

          In the corner of the world I work in, there’s a little thing I like to call called “proof”. For all of the pictures of swimming polar bears and sad-looking penguin, proof is something the climate alarmists have never actually delivered. If they had, I wouldn’t be having this argument. What they’ve provided is computer models based on questionable (and not fully disclosed) assumptions, fudged (oops – I mean “adjusted”) data taken from a flawed dataset, and correlations that apparently reverse cause (temperature increase) and effect (carbon rise).

          Even before the Climate Gate data dump, there was plenty of evidence that the most vocal proponents of AGW have commited scientific malpractice; they refused to share source data, they refused to disclose the source code for thier computer models, they moved reporting stations, they admitted to exaggerating predictions to get media attention. The CRU emails showed that they were certainly gaming the peer review process, and no number of whitewash “investigations” will ever change that fact.

          There’s no denying that there’s as much or more money behind the warmists as there is behind the skeptics. In fact, the carbon traders alone (who will make money without having to actually produce anything) will probably stand to make larger profits than the oil companies within just a few years if global cap-and-trade programs are adopted. It’s very clear that the AGW camp is not acting like scientists who have a theory that they beleive they can actually prove.

          The point I’m trying to make is that you can’t take the stand you’ve apparently taken (“I don’t understand the science but I trust the media”) and then claim that the “science” is on your side and that skeptics (including people who do, in fact, understand the science) are unscientific. There are plenty of good, scientific reasons to be skeptical. The science is NOT settled, consensus is not a scientific method.

  • donnybrooke

    Yes, how can he make such claims in an opinion piece without backing it up! How dare he question the holy scripture of
    AGW! Denier! Anti-Gaiaist! Blasphemer!

    “Onward Climate Soldiers,
    Marching as to war.
    With the Hockey Stick of Mann,
    Going up in score!

    Gore the richest Anthro,
    Leads against our foes!
    Forward into battle,
    Let your carbon go!”

    (Aren’t the proponents of Political AGW Ideology fun when they make it into a religion? Blinded by the light.)

  • rickbull

    I have a firm belief that AGW is just the latest in a series of “liberal” religions including, but not limited to, the nuclear winter and the coming ice age.

    Thus far, none of the evidence has proven whether rising CO2 levels are a leading cause or a trailing effect of global warming.

    What I can prove is that none of the “green power solutions” are any less malevolent than the fossil fuel based power systems that are prevalent today. There is a hefty environmental price to pay for each and every one.

    The only true solution to the detrimental effects of human habitation of our planet is genocide: the future “liberal” religion.

  • davidappell

    rickbull wrote:
    > Thus far, none of the evidence has proven whether rising CO2 levels
    > are a leading cause or a trailing effect of global warming.

    It certainly has. It’s well known that the extra CO2 in today’s atmosphere is anthropogenic in origin, via its radioactive signature. The fraction of atmospheric carbon that comes from human-burned fossil fuels has nuclei that were once radioactive but long ago changed to non- radioactive carbon. Carbon dioxide emitted from natural sources on the Earth’s surface retains a measurable radioactive portion. More evidence comes from the tops of ice cores, and from the fact that there is slightly more CO2 in the northern hemisphere than the southern hemisphere.

    So, carbon dioxide is leading temperature. In turn, rising temperatures induce more carbon emissions (a positive feedback).

    What’s amazing to me is that you would think that somehow tens of thousands of professional scientists would have overlooked this simple, fundamental question or have found they couldn’t answer it.

  • davidappell

    danielhill2008 wrote:
    > I?m sure global climate is a lot more complex than the conditions
    > surrounding a tropical storm/hurricane,

    Actually in many ways climate is simpler than a hurricane or localized storm,, just as you can more easily calculate the long-term, equilibrium state of a swimming pool’s temperature than the short-term evolution of all the little swirls and eddies that exist in the pool. Climate is not weather.

  • davidappell

    In science, one link from a few days ago proves nothing. Nor does one paper. Science is a long-term process, requiring considerable back-and-forth, expert review and re-review, correction and re-correction, and lots of digestion and analysis. In this way it is very unlike blogging.

    Pielke Sr is a good scientist, but consistently in the minority. So, we’ll see. Like all scientists, what he writes isn’t holy writ, and one paper or blog post is certainly not going to undo decades and decades of climate science – tens of thousands of results and papers by thousands of scientists.

    By the way, Pielke Sr accepts AGW, saying: “…the evidence of a human fingerprint on the global and regional climate is incontrovertible as clearly illustrated in the National Research Council report and in our research papers.” He differs on the details of its causes, believing that land use changes have been under emphasized.

  • Aaron Gardner
  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    You’re too incompetent to use the site properly, and you’re too indoctrinated to be interesting.

    Enough of the talking points. Begone.

  • Finrod

    I was actually looking forward to see what equivocation and handwaving he’d come out with to try to answer my bombarding him with links and such up above.

  • Next93

    He’s a prime example of a True Beleiver. There’s no number of holes that can ever be shot into this idiotic hypothesis that will ever convince him that it’s all a plot by the oil companies. Every hole we find will be conveniently papered over with unsubstantiated assumptions and nebulous claims.

    We have a saying in the software business that “there’s no silver bullet”. I think for AGW theory, we need to adopt the philosophy of “there’s no wooden stake”, as in “we’re never going to be able to drive a wooden stake through the heart of this thing”.

    Any theory that can’t be disproven by science is, by definition, not science. I don’t often quote Stevie Wonder, but “when you beleive in things that you don’t undestand and you suffer, superstition is the name”.

  • AzHat

    Scientific problems require scientific solutions. Since the only solutions I see being proposed for ?Climate Change? are political, it must be a political problem.

  • Finrod

    Heck, I saw one scientific analysis that concluded that even if we are warming the Earth, we should just go with it for now because we won’t be able to warm it up over the next 100 years more than we’d be able to fix with 22nd-century technology, which would be much more cost-effective than anything we could do now.

  • http://www.twitter.com/AWG9_yoyo yoyo

    Yeah, it is hot. But, only because I live in Charleston SC and it is late spring.

    I don’t see a problem, or feel a problem at all.

    It looks, to me, to be a “problem” in search of a solution in search of a problem.

  • Next93

    The carbon traders stand to become the Railroad Barons of the 21st century, rich men made richer by the stroke of a government pen. And anyone who thinks that there isn’t a concerted and well-funded movement to make sure that happens, needs to look no further than Jeffery Immelt and the GE/NBC push for Green-ness.

    The big difference is tjhis: the Railroad Barons eventually had to build railroads and actually provide service. The Carbon Barons will simply move paper from one side of a desk to another electrons.

    They’ll make untold fortunes by skimming a slice off the top of a market that the government gives them, one that we will all be forced to participate in. They’ll simply charge a “service fee” to transfer money from the poor and middle-class of the developed countries and into the pockets of the “hereditary democratically elected presidents for life” of various third-world toilets, in exchange for keeping thier people locked in permanent, hopeless poverty.

    Anyone who doesn’t find all of this morally repugnant has something wrong.

  • http://impudent.edublogs.org/ kyle8

    temperatures in the low 70′s in Texas today in the month of May?!?!

  • gekster

    And we are told it is “because” of global warming.
    I think that’s like saying I’m going to dry off by jumping in a swimming pool.

  • Next93

    The fact that there’s CO2 in the atmosphere that came from fossil fuels isn’t contested. It’s not even contested that there’s a link between increased CO2 levels and warming in the historical record.

    What’s contested is the idea that carbon increases in the past were the cause or the result of associated warming periods. In other words, no one has been able to show if the carbon increases before or after (and the evidence appears to indicate “after”) the warm-up.

    And I have to say it’s amazing to me that anyone who can’t understand the difference between cause and effect feels qalified to offer an opinion on this subject.

  • Next93

    I promised myself I wouldn’t get into the science when I wrote the OP, but what the heck:

    Ok, normally I don’t accept the idea that a cold day, or even a cold season is evidence of a trend (otherwise I have to listen to the alarmists whining every time it’s above normal temps or the first snow is late).

    HOWEVER…

    If we’re talking about a runaway greenhouse mechanism, in wich warming caused by CO2 is amplified by cloud formation (water vapor being the most common and most powerful greenhouse gas on the planet), then we’ve got a really big, really powerful positive feedback channel, one that should overpower everything else except solar input.

    Speaking qualitatively, I find it really unlikely that this wouldn’t result in a much faster and much more monotonic rise rate than what we’ve seen, which is basically a mild bias shift that’s barely larger than the noise floor.

    Of course, without the number-crunching this doesn’t mean much. If I were to win the lottery, I’d love to spend a year putting some serious quantitative work in on this (actually produce an open-source model that would be available to everyone)

    Of course, the FIRST thing I’d have to do if I won the lottery would be to visit the Vatican, since I *never* buy lottery tickets…

  • Next93

    It’s pretty well-accepted that a large volcano in upper lattitudes will cause one or more cold years. So if we really need to cool things down, hand me a billion or so, and I’ll spend $30 million of that putting up a couple of high-altutute sounding rockets with payloads of synthetic volcanic dust. In a couple of years the dust will settle out, so the chances of long-term damage are nill, and we can always send up another rocket or two every time we think it’s getting too hot (I’ll even offer a group-purchase discount of 10% or so)

    Problem solved, more effectively than a global carbon exchange and for a fraction of the cost. The world saves $999 billion a year, the libs get thier “hope and change”, and I get to keep the pocket change (a paltry $970 million, but it’ll have to do ).

    Next stop, the fabulous and tax-free Cayman Islands. Anyone for a Red Stripe?

  • Finrod

    He was able to recreate the hockey stick by tweaking the data, which shows if you tweak the data just slightly differently, you don’t get a hockey stick any more.

    http://iowahawk.typepad.com/iowahawk/2009/12/fables-of-the-reconstruction.html