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Colorado Postmortem

The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly

Colorado didn’t fare as well on election day as much of the nation. There are several reasons why this is so. Trying to pin key losses on one or two reasons oversimplifies what really happened here. This diary isn’t going to have a bunch of links to past events. I’m sure there are going to be people out there that disagree with my analysis here, and could provide links to prove their view. What follows is one man’s opinion that had the ear of the candidates, the key bloggers in the State, and my own general observations.

The Good

Cory Gardner won in CD-4 over Betsy Markey. Markey won in 2008 due to several factors, primarily because Marilyn Musgrave’s popularity waned on all sides, and the popularity of Obama in Colorado. Markey joined the bluedog democrats, but voters in CD-4 saw through this and rejected her due to her consistently liberal voting record. Cory is a small businessman that has been in state politics for awhile. He’s from the eastern plains, so look for him to champion small business and farm interests. He will be a consistently reliable vote for fiscal and social conservatism.

Scott Tipton won in CD-3 over John Salazar. Salazar had been in office since 2004, and previously held his own due to a moderate voting record, but like Markey, he voted consistently Reid-Pelosi agenda. This win along with CD-4 puts the rural areas of Colorado back in Republican hands.

The GOP also won back the state House, by an extremely thin margin of 33-32. This should dampen the fears that Democrats would have a free hand at redistricting.

The Bad

Ryan Frazier lost to Ed Perlmutter. This one is still puzzling, but I’ve come to the conclusion that CD-7 is bluer than previously thought. It was the right candidate in the right year, and yet the election just wasn’t that close. Unless the demographics change naturally in this district, it’s likely to be a comfortable Dem hold just like CD-1 and CD-2.

Ken Buck lost to Michael Bennet for the open Senate seat. There are a lot of reasons why Buck lost this race. Certainly having the NRSC pull money out last minute prevented Buck from being able to respond to last-minute attack ads. Not only were these ads grossly misleading and out-of-context, but they were relentless. The tense primary didn’t help, with both candidates slinging mud at each other. Buck’s campaign was inexperienced, and that showed with Bennet being able to successfully run against his own voting record. Buck decided to run far to the right to distinguish himself from Norton, and then during the general tried to move back towards the center, but for many independent voters, they just didn’t buy it.

The Clear the Bench Colorado efforts didn’t pan out, although the State Supremes received fewer retention votes than last time around, so at least it raised awareness.

Proposition 63, the healthcare choice initiative, went down, primarily due to the number assigned to it. Amendments 60 & 61 were poorly written, 62 was another attempt to define life beginning at conception, which failed miserably last time. People just decided to vote no to all of them.

The Ugly

What a debacle the Governor’s race was. Not only did the democrat get over 50% of the vote, but it most likely affected other races. And to think this all started out with Bill Ritter having about the same chance at re-election as mbecker’s dead white cat. The establishment pushed McInnis (knowing full well of his plagiarism issues), the Tea Party backed an unknown candidate in Maes who it turns out was running for Governor because that’s the best job he could find in a slow economy, all the while the best candidate in the original field ended up slinging mud at our eventual Senate candidate.

The state GOP has a lot to answer for, starting with Dick Wadhams. It doesn’t really matter how you paint it, a true leader knows in the end he shoulders the responsibility either way. We’ll probably have to start with a clean slate before we begin to make progress again. The Tea Party needs to evaluate their own failures. No Tea Party-backed candidate or initiative was successful in Colorado, although I’m sure the enthusiasm helped other downstream races that were won.

As for me, at least I gained a congressional representative that will listen to his constituents. All my other representatives are democrats, which means they’ll find new ways to spend money they don’t have and charge it to my children and grandchildren. The voters in my city even voted for higher property and sales taxes. I can’t do much about the property taxes at this time, but I can certainly start shopping in the neighboring communities to avoid the sales tax, and that’s exactly what I plan to do, along with a lot of other people I know. Businesses will continue to move out to Timnath, Windsor & Loveland, but that’s what happens when you try to become Boulder North.

Lots of local work still to do….

Night Twister

P.S. My biggest disappointment of all was the failure of Denver’s Initiative 300. It’s clear there’s no intelligent life in Colorado anymore, so I was secretly hoping we’d find some elsewhere and maybe…just maybe…these aliens would vote Republican.

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COMMENTS

  • eburke
  • IJB

    Because looking at the results, I think the most charitable conclusion one can come to is that CO is at least a “lean Dem” state now.

    And I base that not on the Senate results, or the Governor results, but on the *State Legislature* results – the fact that, this year of all years, the GOP couldn’t make up any ground in the State Senate (gaining one seat barely counts), and only technically took the State House (which could easily be reversed by a resignation or a death in a few months), is extremely telling.

    (Lest anyone get excited by the wins in CO-03 and CO-04, all that happened there is that two rural districts returned to their GOP roots – but that’s no different than what happens in rural districts in CA, WA, OR, IL or NY. The really tangible outcomes that can answer my question are found in the overall the statewide results…)

    Your post-mortem of the state Prop’s would seem to further confirm my view.

    So, with all the CA and WA transplants – is CO a “blue” state now?…

    • http://www.nighttwister.com NightTwister

      But we have a LOT of work to do here. The first thing that has to change is all the single-issue center-right voters need to get over themselves and start working together. Until that happens, the democrats will retain a comfortable lead. The second thing that needs to happen is to get the State GOP to start doing their job by generating a narrative that the people here will understand and accept.

      • calgacus

        Colorado used to be one of our best seats. I am greatly concerned by the fact that the individual mandate proposition failed. It passed overwhelmingly in Oklahoma (granted that is a conservative state). I see no reason why we can not win 2012 Colorado for presidency. It is possible the candiddates were just not liked. After all, Hickenlooper got only 50% and Bennett only 48%.

  • runner12

    but didn’t the Tea Party support Tancredo and not Maes?

    • http://www.nighttwister.com NightTwister

      They originally supported Maes, which is one of the reasons he won the primary after McInnis imploded.

  • runner12

    The Tea Party was somewhat split though, wasn’t it? I thought some Tea Party members endorsed Tancredo from the get go. I know that Palin endorsed him.

    • http://www.nighttwister.com NightTwister

      It was between Maes & McInnis for most of the primary. The tea parties supported Maes, the establishment supported McInnis. Then came the plagiarism, Tancredo’s threats to run 3rd party, Maes wins the primary. Most of the tea party groups rescinded their support of Maes and switched to Tancredo, but by then the deal was already sealed.

      • proudgop

        I heard Republicans picked up 2 statewide races? Have AG race too?

        Gov race was a disaster and Senate Race was bad for us.

        I think CO 7 is reason CO is trending blue. A lot Northeast people when they move out west now go to San Fran, Seattle, Denver

        • http://www.nighttwister.com NightTwister

          We have AG, and won SoS and Treas. Having the SoS back in Republican hands will help keep Hickenlooper from doing many of the things Ritter did after Coffman left when he became the congressman in CD-6.

          • IJB

            You can tell a true “Blue” state when a Republican can’t win statewide office even in the most favorable environment or even against massively flawed Dem candidates (see: CA, IL, and NY).

            The fact that CO is still willing to vote for Republicans for AG, SoS and Treasurer makes me think that CO’s not really “Blue” yet…

            (Addendum: I just checked, and it looks like Steve Cooley has pulled ahead again in the CA AG race. So maybe CA won’t have ‘all-Dem’ statewide offices either! :) )

          • ffc99

            statewide.

  • markpryor9

    …would have defeated Bennet with room to spare. The tea party blew it in that race. It’s about candidate “quality control”. But you take the good with the bad in a nascent movement.

    As far as the governorship is concerned, what else can be said? The GOP was poised to take it going back to late ’09 whether against Ritter or Hick. And then the perfect storm of the plagiarism scandal, an unqualified alternative to the frontrunner and the third-party candidacy of a firebrand hit. This one can be squarely laid on the state party with the candidate they pushed and their desire to keep viable alternatives out of the race. Wadhams needs to go.

    • http://www.nighttwister.com NightTwister

      Norton had her own issues that Bennet would’ve been able to exploit. I supported her because she was polling better against Bennet than Buck, but we’ll never know. It would’ve been a close race.

      Wadhams definitely needs to go, and the names “Tancredo” and “Maes” should never be uttered again when talking about political office. Unfortunately, I doubt that’ll be the case with the former.

      • IJB
  • http://908StraightSt.wordpress.com/ mbecker908