« BACK  |  PRINT

RS

MEMBER DIARY

Colorado: The Way Forward

Now that the dust has finally settled on the 2010 political campaign in Colorado, it’s time to assess the results and find the way forward. Unless we learn the lessons from this and past elections, we’re doomed to continue along the same path. Although this diary is about Colorado, it could apply to many other states. There are probably many that won’t agree with my assessments.

We had mixed results here in Colorado. We picked up two House seats, but lost the Governor’s and Senate races. We picked up statewide offices for SoS and Treasurer, and we regained control of the State House, but lost our initiatives to remove some liberal judges and assure healthcare choice.

The Governor’s race was a perfect storm, and enough ink has already been spilled over that race. Suffice it to say that we need to find a way to encourage better candidates to run and stay in the race so we aren’t stuck with such inferior choices that eventually leads to doom. We didn’t remove some liberal judges, but the numbers improved and I think we can eventually get there with more voter education (more on that later).

Of greater interest to me was evaluating the Senate race and the healthcare choice initiative. It is my belief that we failed due to the large number of single-issue voters in Colorado that do not understand the minds of the voters. I’ll begin with the Senate race.

The two primary reasons for Ken Buck’s loss were allowing Michael Bennet to run against his own record and paint Buck as an extremist. There will be many that will argue there were other factors, such as a lack of GOTV effort at the end and pulling money for races in other states at the last minute. Certainly a lack of funds contributed to allowing Bennet to successfully run against his record, but none of these other factors affected the left’s success in getting voters to believe Buck was too extreme for them.

Single issue groups have always put out candidate questionnaires, but these have become much more specific lately. While I think it’s very important to know where a candidate stands on the issues, there’s a fine line between getting answers and giving ammunition to the opposition. While it may feel good to get all the answers that you want, if in the end it actually helps elect those opposed to your cause, what good does it do?

This brings me to the Personhood Amendment. Ken Buck supported this initiative early in his campaign, and his opponents eventually used it to make clearly false statements about him, but this perception stuck. I voted for this amendment, but I also knew it would be a polarizing force, and was an attempt to take too large a bite off the apple at one time. This leads me to the healthcare choice initiative.

Any other election, this would’ve easily passed. Unfortunately it ended up being a victim of something as simple as a number. Amendments 60 and 61 (and referendum 101) were poorly-written and didn’t even have the support of the base, and therefore had no chance. Add to this Amendment 62 which was too much of a reach, and people just decided to vote no on the 60s.

I’m not a fan of voter initiatives in general, as it goes against a representative form of government. It would be better that voters held their representatives accountable and replaced them when they overreach. That doesn’t seem to be the case often, and I prefer that voters live with the consequences of their inaction. That said, initiatives like 63 that are intended to specifically reverse government overreach (i.e. Obamacare) are ones I can get behind.

I know a lot of people aren’t going to agree with me, and they’re going to continue to pursue their narrow agenda, and thereby continue to elect Democrats that are completely opposed to their goals. Sure, they’ll feel good about themselves, and convince themselves that they’re sticking to their principles, but I believe there’s a way to do that and still make progress in the right direction too. My proposal contains two parts.

The first part is getting the various groups to find areas where they can work together, instead of focusing on differences. Just to suggest and example that I’ve seen in a few places, the defunding of Planned Parenthood. This would appeal to several groups, social conservatives, fiscal conservatives, and even libertarians. Social conservatives want to see the number of abortions reduced, and fiscons and libertarians don’t see this funding as something the government should be involved with. I believe that candidates that come out in favor of such ideas would find wide support and avoid being labeled as extreme. I’m sure there are many other ways the different factions could find ways to work together.

The second part of this proposal is to get groups to focus their energy on education. One of the complaints I often hear from people about the first part of my proposal is that they’re being forced to shut up and get in line. I’m not advocating this at all. What I am saying is, that we should look for areas where we can make progress now, and concentrate on educating others on areas where we can’t so we can make more progress in the future. We should wait until the climate is more favorable, rather than forcing candidates to voice a position on issues that are currently unpopular. There are some good organizations out there already doing this type of work, such as the Independence Institute. They’re focused on education about fiscal issues, transparency, education, and others.

I believe if we continue down the same path of forcing candidates into corners, we will continue to lose elections. I believe there’s a better way forward, one of mutual cooperation and respect. We find ways to work together where we can, and wait and educate where we can’t. If we don’t, we will continue to elect Democrats and lose even more ground. I don’t see how that’s in anyone’s best interest.

Night Twister

Get Alerts

COMMENTS

  • http://thesandsinstitute.org Vassar Bushmills

    Some friends will be launching an extensiove anti-voter fraud campaign early in 2011, to highlight and punish wrongdoers. I wonder if you have any sense of that in Colorado? If so, please email me with links at siccm@thesandsinstitute.org

    • http://www.nighttwister.com NightTwister

      Voter fraud isn’t really an issue here. Infighting between factions and an inability to find common ground is our biggest problem. The independent, pioneering spirit in Colorado has its upside, but also a downside.

      • peter_s

        NT,

        Colorado was one of the swing states targeted by the left over the past 6-7 years to amp up voter registration, and Obama won almost all of those states by more than the new registrations added by ACORN and affiliated entities. Don’t be so sure that all those new registrations were legitimate. Further, the laws have been systematically changed over the past couple of decades under the stated rationale of “increasing access” in a manner which, curiously enough, facilitated fraud and impeded its detection. For example, in California, no photo ID is required when someone is voting, and someone can register by simply proffering a driver’s license number (number, not drivers’ license itself). Since there are probably several million non-citizens in California who have driver’s licenses, this is a situation rife with the possibility of fraud. And, in CA, it is illegal to check someone’s citizenship when they register–though it is otherwise easy to do so through e-Verify. Research how Bob Dornan lost his incumbent US House seat in Orange County to Loretta Sanchez in 1996, then project out how the left-leaning groups have been running this same playbook each election cycle since then, in many districts across the state, to see the size of the potential problem from just that issue alone. And that’s only one of the devices in the left’s playbook for voter registration fraud and voter fraud.

        • http://www.nighttwister.com NightTwister

          ACORN was involved here a while back, but there was no widespread voter fraud found. Also, CO requires showing an ID before you vote.

          That said…..voters can now opt in to permanent mail-in ballot status. The potential for fraud in the future is much greater now.

          • peter_s

            NT,

            If someone can register without proving citizenship (which is the case throughout the country, I believe–the 9th Circuit just struck down Arizona’s citizenship requirement under the bizarre legal argument that the “affidavit” on Arizona’s registration form by which the registrant “swore” he or she was a citizen was sufficient to pre-empt any other attempt by AZ to confirm citizenship), then don’t assume that the left isn’t systematically seeking out non-citizens in large numbers and registering them to vote. This is assuredly happening in California, for example, and appears to have been going on for many years now. It’s a playbook the left also appears to have brought to other states (Nevada, for one) in recent years. There’s no reason to believe the left hasn’t done this in CO as well, as it’s been one of their targeted states for many of their state of the art devices for influencing elections “by any means necessary.”

            Even in Georgia, where there doesn’t appear to have been the same type of systematic effort to register non-citizens, a local TV station found a couple of months ago that there were, at minimum, many hundreds of people who were non-citizens who were registered to vote, and voting. Since they only checked the lowest of the low hanging fruit (people who had gotten themselves off of jury duty by claiming they weren’t citizens, and people who were arrested and had had their citizenship status checked), the findings by the station only uncovered the tip of the iceberg of the problem in Georgia (my guess, only a tiny fraction):

            http://www.wsbtv.com/news/25555958/detail.html

            Again, there’s no reason to suspect that in Georgia there’s been a systematic effort to register non-citizens, as there is in a number of states.

            Then there’s the fact that about half of the states willfully refuse to comply with express provisions of federal law which require them to remove people from the voter rolls who have moved away, or died. With photo ID required, it’s of course harder to vote these folks (you may recall the youtube video of a van load of people in Sacramento, CA going around from polling place to polling place, and at each location given the name they were to vote under at that location, then at the end of the day, each one was given a $100 bill–btw, any guesses as to what party those votes were cast for). However, absentee voting gets around this, and of course the left has amped up its use of this device dramatically over the past several electoral cycles.

    • http://www.buckforcolorado.com bjwilson83

      All is well.

  • http://beaglescout.wordpress.com Beaglescout

    It’s important to choose issues where the good guys can win now, put them up for a vote and agitate the voters about them. And it’s also important to educate the voters about issues where a win is not possible right now. Are there any conservative newspapers or tv news stations in Colorado to help with the education effort? I’m sure there are hyper-progressive ones, including taxpayer funded ones.

    • http://www.nighttwister.com NightTwister

      There’s also a Leadership of the Rockies program that has been very effective in training current and future conservative leaders.

      There really isn’t a conservative print or tv news source. Most people get their conservative news from the People’s Press Collective, a group of center-right bloggers that came together during the DNC convention from the last Presidential election.

      • wonkish1

        I immediately went to their website, and found what I have wished there were more of. A very efficiently ran voter centric body. We need more of those around the country.

      • http://www.buckforcolorado.com bjwilson83

        www.completecolorado.com

    • http://www.buckforcolorado.com bjwilson83

      has exploded on the scene in at least Northern Colorado (www.libertyinkjournal.com). The guys and gals there do an amazing job. The Constitutionalist Today (out of the Springs, I think?) was pretty good until they rode the Dan Maes train to obscurity.

  • aesthete

    There are several areas where libertarians, fiscons, and socons could not only work together, but where they would happily work together: private school vouchers, freedom of religion, defunding of several arts, welfare reform, and basically anything that strips government of power and restores it to the citizenry would go over well in the current climate. People are willing to ask where each dollar is going, and to pull the plug if they don’t like the answer, so cutting programs that advance social agendas or centralize the state are likely to work well.

  • IJB

    The results of 2010 were pretty disappointing across the board in CO.

    But what’s hard to assess is whether the GOV’s race affected *everything* else – whether every other race thus became “fruit of the poison tree”, so to speak – or whether the demographics of CO really are “bluing” to the point where CO can no longer be considered a true “swing state” but more of a “light Blue” state a la MN and WI. (I know NT will disagree with the latter assessment, but as an “outsider” I’m not sure I’m going to be convinced one way or the other until we see the results of another election result or two in CO…)

    Anyway, the biggest disappointments, overall, on Election Day 2010 have got to be CO & NV. And I’m not basing that on the Senate losses, but rather the fact that in NV we only won the GOV (the State Legislature is still in Dem hands, though narrowly) and in CO we only won the CO State House (and, there, just *barely* enough that even one untimely death and CO redistricting will go out the window for the GOP…). I’d argue that we even did better in places like OR and WA (which both became shades redder) than we did in the supposed ‘swing states’ of CO and NV…

    Anyway, I think it’ll take another election or two to figure out if these results were just bad luck/timing, or a sign or more permanent demographic changes.

    Just my $0.02…

    • wonkish1

      What I see in Colorado isn’t so much a “bluing” of the state, but a complete fracturing of the GOP electorate, and this appears something very unique to Colorado. The problem is the completely different world people live in only 20 miles away from each other in Colorado.

      Allow me to explain. In the state of Colorado, the vast majority of people were not born in Colorado, they were born in a different state, and moved to Colorado. And they move mostly into the Denver Metro, not to the rural parts of the South, East, and Northeast of the state. Now, there are heavily populated GOP territories of the Denver suburbs and exurbs. One example is the suburbs of south Denver which are wealthy and fairly conservative, but mostly fiscally conservative. Due to the fact that the area is very open and friendly to folks(because at one point or another everybody was new to the state) they have a streak towards tolerance that causes them to get uncomfortable anytime anything very socially conservative comes up.

      Also, we all know that there is the Air Force in south in Colorado Springs, but the weird thing is what is going on in the east and the north east. There is such a huge disconnect between the Rancher style folks only15 miles to the east of the Denver metro and the folks that live in the metro. The rancher’s have been there most of the time their entire lives and their parents have been lived in the same spot their entire lives. These folks are a lot more traditional and a lot less open in conversation. And they are also distrustful of anything seen as to bold in the advancement of wealth because they look at the people in the city as stealing their water(a big issue in Colorado) and economic progress laying waste to their way of life.

      So as you could probably guess, the folks in the rural parts of the state absolutely don’t talk to anybody from the cities, suburbs, or really even the exurbs. The differences are way to stark. And there is really almost a non existence of medium sized towns or small cities in the rural parts of Colorado to act as any bridge between these two communities.

      These differences do exist in other states on a much smaller scale, but not like this. It literally feels like as if you took wealthy conservatives from northern Virginia and the Texas metro’s and put them in the same state as people from Wyoming. This thing could likely end up blowing up and creating a mess for the state GOP.

      That is why, more than any other state I think the OP has nailed it especially for Colorado. The elements of the GOP in Colorado just need to find a way to get along.

      This is also why a 1 issue candidate like Tancredo can do so well in a state like Colorado because if it is an issue(like immigration) that doesn’t offend any part of the GOP electorate then they will unify, but 1 issue candidates are a bandaid. What ultimately needs to be found is common ground between the factions of the GOP in Colorado politics.

      This post was given from someone that doesn’t live in Colorado, but has family there, worked there, and spent sometime trying to understand Colorado politics(especially since those family members are in Colorado politics).

      On another note, we didn’t perform well in the North Carolina congressional elections at all. And to a lesser extent we didn’t do very well in Iowa either.

    • http://www.nighttwister.com NightTwister

      We one back the House, and a win by one seat was considered the best we could hope for. Taking back the Senate was always considered a longshot. When you look at the numbers, the votes were there for Sos & Treas, but fell off for Gov & U.S. Senate. It wasn’t a lack of voters, it was a lack of good candidates.

      BTW, we don’t have to worry about an untimely death. If a house seat becomes vacant, it is filled by a vacancy committee from the party’s own leadership. That seat would remain in GOP hands.

      One effect the close Senate race had was to push our current Senators to the right. Both of them voted for the earmarks ban. I think they realize that this isn’t a state that you can vote like Barbara Boxer and get away with it long term.

      Our greatest concern going forward now is redistricting. Since we hold a majority in the House, they won’t be able to be too extreme. The likeliest big change will be including more of Boulder into CO-4, making it more difficult for Cory Gardner to retain his seat.

      • IJB

        Usually what happens in a ‘split governance’ scenario you have in CO is an “incumbent projection” plan. I imagine that’s what’ll end up happening – we’ll strengthen CO-04 and CO-03, and they’ll strengthen CO-07.

        But I can’t imagine the GOP would agree to any plan that would weaken CO-04. They certainly shouldn’t agree to such a plan, and should fight it…

        • http://www.nighttwister.com NightTwister

          We saw that in the last election. It’s solidly in the Dems camp, for now. CO-3 & CO-4 are most in jeopardy. Last year the legislature passed a law removing the requirement that these rural areas be kept together. The Dems will try to split these conservative areas and merge them with liberal areas to remove their influence.

          I’m not saying the GOP would agree to anything. Personally I’d be happy if nothing changed, but the boundaries will eventually have to be moved to properly reflect the new population. The GOP doesn’t have the strong hand here, and will likely need to compromise somewhere.

          • IJB
          • http://www.nighttwister.com NightTwister

            But why do you think the Dems will be satisfied with 3 of 7 House seats for the foreseeable future?

          • froster

            nt

          • http://www.nighttwister.com NightTwister

            That seat has been held by R’s & D’s about 50/50. Western Slope Rs aren’t your typical Rs either. The three most important things to them are water, water, and water. Get that wrong and it doesn’t matter what letter you have after your name.

            But if CO-3 & CO-4 are strengthened, it will make it much harder for a Salazar or a Markey to win, even in an unfavorable R climate.

          • wonkish1

            That in every other state it comes down to the money, in Colorado a lot seems to always come back to water.

            I think it practically runs under the surface of everything.

          • froster

            I bet you he got carried away by the R tide; not himself. (Whereas Betsy Markey was more of the fact that she voted for all the liberal legislation)

          • IJB

            If Salazar’s name was so good, he would have held on like McIntyre and Matheson did.

            The folks at SSP are convinced he’ll win a rematch, but I think they’re whistling past the graveyard (unless Obama is somehow able to recreate the 2008 electorate in 2012…).

          • froster

            I’m looking at that blog right now. What do you know about it?

          • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens
          • IJB

            It’s not totally useless. But a lot of their redistricting diaries are devoted to drawing abysmally gerrymandered pro-D maps. And most of their commenters are of the “Rah! Rah! D!!” DailyKos types.

            Still, SSP is occasionally useful for info…

          • froster

            that if you are looking for election news its fine but you have to be able to disregard the commentary … which seems to be of the lefty kind as you said.

            You said you are from CA, did you see the redistricting diary that draws a district that goes from Lynwood to Irvine, Pomona to the San Diego suburbs, and Sun City to South Gate? That gives true meaning to gerrymander.

          • IJB

            But a lot of the redistricting diaries at SSP are like that… :|

          • http://www.nighttwister.com NightTwister

            Especially on the Western Slope (CO-3) where Ken has cost people jobs because of the administration’s anti-energy policies.

          • IJB

            If they has won the CO State House, I have no doubt they would have gone for a 4D-3R (or even a 5D-2R) CO map.

            But without the ‘trifecta’, they’ll ultimately have to settle for incumbent protection, IMO.

          • http://www.nighttwister.com NightTwister

            You’d think they could do better than that with 2 out of 3.

    • http://www.buckforcolorado.com bjwilson83

      Demographics have been trending slightly blue, but we should still have been a red state in the last election. (Just look at the down ballot state races, we won all of them.) Given good candidates and well executed strategy, we can win everything but Denver and Boulder. Pueblo is the trickiest besides those two but Hispanic Republicans would do well there.

      • wonkish1

        Granted I don’t live there, but I have family there(in Colorado politics), and I have visited and worked in the state in the past. Traveling around I just see the issue of GOP fracturing as a more driving problem in Colorado then any demographic changes.

        Again since I don’t live there take it with a grain of salt.

        • http://www.buckforcolorado.com bjwilson83

          Heading somewhat more toward blue, but still moderately conservative if we can pull our stuff together.

  • harpsichord

    I was a poll watcher in Denver in 2008. I was appalled at the contrast between the Dem and Repub ground game. At my polling location there was me vs. 2 Dem poll watchers and 7 OFA pollwatchers. There was no Republican effort to get info back to the Party about who had voted. After the election, I looked up the Denver rules and discovered that the OFA effort violated the rules.

    1. The Colo Repubs were totally unresponsive to my efforts to help with this process.
    2. Efforts need to begin NOW to train people to serve as judges and poll watchers.
    3. This effort needs to be County specific, since the Counties all have different rules and procedures.

    I don’t know what happened in 2010, Judging from what i saw from the “outside”, a lot of Colorado Party Flacs think alot more of themselves than of their unwashed fellow Republicans.

    • http://www.nighttwister.com NightTwister

      That’s especially true in the Denver area where the Democrats have a significant advantage in numbers. There is also tension between the old guard vs. younger leaders that want to move the party forward in the areas of technology and new media.

      • proudgop

        1. The election in CO had few positives as you noted we increased our future candidates. AG, SOS and Gen Treas and have 2 congressional seats plus now but the problem is demographics switch and how can we get better message out to growing Hispanics as well as young voters. I know plenty of east coast people who when they move out west they move to San Fran, Seattle, Denver, or Las Vegas now and I am sure thats helped Dems

        I was disappointed to see Ryan Frazier not do better I still think he has bright future in party

        • http://www.buckforcolorado.com bjwilson83

          nt

  • deano64

    For one Dick Wadhams needs to go and I imagine he will. I pretty much agree with you on Buck. He did and said some things that cost him some female votes. In a close race that was enough to make a difference. For anecdotal evidence my sister is a Republican and she did vote for Buck. Hoewever, the cowboy boots/high heels comment prior to the primary really turned her off. I imagine it also turned off a lot off female Independent voters who decided to vote for his opponent in the general. Like you, no one has convinced me CO has gone blue but it’s going to take some work to get it back obviously.