In my Diary yesterday, “THE CHOSEN ONE” knows he is in deep Kimchee

http://wizbangblog.com/content/2008/09/19/how-liberal-trolls-are-working-to-get-mccain-elected-president.php

I truly believe that half of the dem crazies feel the need to boast of their support for Obama, but when the curtain closes it will be a different story. I’d bet the farm that even Hillary will go McCain! On top of that, most of his supporters will miss the bus!

Good points.
We still have a long way to go in this race. With debates (including the VP debate too), any october surprises, the market continuing to recover… anything could still happen.

Every major news source had called the New Hampshire primary for Barry on January 6, 2008, one day before the actual voting.

Barry’s lead was between 7 and 10 over Hillary.

Barry lost New Hampshire 39% to 37%. He didn’t even ask for a recount (perhaps he should have; after all, democrats were involved).

I am encouraged by polls which show McCain within 3% in New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Iowa, New Mexico, Wisconsin, and Minnesota.

If recent history is any guide, Barry polls better among “phone voters” than he does among ACTUAL VOTERS.

I re-posted it on the frontpage at R408

more later

http://race42008.com/2008/09/20/devine-gamecockstradamass-memory-not-enough-read-this/

am sending to all my friends and asking them to do so.

This blog puts meat on the bones of all my history justified optimism and I think its important, not to make us complacently lazy, but rather, to give us the confidence in the American people that they DO reject known libs every time.

more later

Redstate

Thanks for the pick-me-up as we head into debate 1 week…

Dick Morris has even more encouraging news on Newsmax.com…looking mighty RED!

http://www.newsmax.com/morris/dickmorrisstatemap/2008/09/19/132493.html

Methadone for Poll Junkies

5

To have an accurate poll you have to have equal or close to equal numbers of each group sampled. The CBS poll, for sure, is heavily skewed with Democrats, then Independents, then Republicans.

A full 43% of the sample is Democrat, yet, Obama gets only a 49% to McCain’s 44%. All things considered that’s not good for Obama. Some of the others don’t break down their numbers by party ID.

Either way, expect another contested election. Whether they lose by a small or large margin, Democrats are sore losers.

Good review, Nobama. Thanks.

on the left! more needed

But careful poll-watchers knew who was going to win. RealClearPolitics and Daly Thoughts both correctly called 49 states (the only one they got wrong was Wisconsin, which Kerry won by the narrowest margin of any state).

I’d been wondering if someone had compaired McCain’s polling with that of Pres. Bush’s. I too believe McCain’s in better shape than the polls suggest; I also believe Obama knows it that is why he’s been hitting hard recently.

I saw were Rassmusen had Obama within 2 of Indiana. He’s is a likely voter poll, but does anyone, I mean even Obama supporters, really believe O will win in Indiana.

I’d been wondering if someone had compaired McCain’s polling with that of Pres. Bush’s. I too believe McCain’s in better shape than the polls suggest; I also believe Obama knows it that is why he’s been hitting hard recently.

I saw were Rassmusen had Obama within 2 of Indiana. His is a likely voter poll, but does anyone, I mean even Obama supporters, really believe O will win in Indiana.

Only because I like to write. In writing, it’s ALWAYS important to remember the audience. I also took stats and am very familiar with the old saying ‘lies, damn lies, and statistics’.

With the media the way it is…’enjoy reality.

5

that Bush won because of vote fraud and Supreme Court interference in the political process?

I thought so.

And now you’re predicting more of the same old “business as usual.”

(-.^)

there are signifigant problems with the underlying analysis.

First, it mixes apples with oranges. The Rolling Stone focuses mainly on exit polls. Those are a totally different methodology from pre-election polls. You cannot draw conclusions from exit poll failures and extend them to pre-election polling. Two different animals.

Second, Texiera’s blog explicitly states that the LV polls correctly predicted that Bush would win. He goes on to make a personal prediciton that the RV polls, which showed Kerry up, would be more accurate. He was wrong, but that doesn’t mean the pollsters were. Those they predicted were likely to vote did in fact vote the way they predicted.

Third, the battleground polls and results in 2004 were very close, well within the margin of error. Every poll includes an MOE, for good reason; the pollsters are telling you that within the MOE, the results are just as likely to be wrong as they are right. So what those battleground polls really said then, and are saying now, is “too close to call.” That means exactly that: too close to call.

We poll junkies like to ignore the MOE when the results are tight. But the reality is, if the margin is within the MOE, the poll results really are too close to call. If a poll shows Obama up by 2%, then McCain could just as easily be up by 2%. The converse is also true; a poll showing McCain up by 2% could just as easily be wrong. And looking at multiple polls or a “poll of polls” does not predictably reduce the MOE. Note that RCP does not tell you the MOE of the RCP average. That’s because it isn’t known, so the average is just a guess. And guesses are as likely to wrong as they are to be right.

Bottom line, the battleground states are battlegrounds because they are usually close. As long as the polls all fall within the MOE, as they are very likely to do for the rest of this campaign, there is no real reliable way to predict who will win. Therefore, until McCain exceeds the MOE in a particular BG state, we need to assume we are losing and fight accordingly.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/RCPPDF/BG2-way-ballot-trender.pdf

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/publiccontent/politics/election20082/2008presidentialelection/foxrasmussenpolling/foxrasmussenswingstatepollingseptember21_2008

n/p

http://tinyurl.com/2u693r

MRG Poll: McCain Up Three In Michigan

http://tinyurl.com/529y5j

I heard a radio report today that stated “polls” are showing NO MOVEMENT of the Hillary supporters, to Obama.

I repeat. NO MOVEMENT since June.

Anyone know which poll(s) that report could be from?

Another data point for Barry demise scenario.

I heard a radio report today that stated “polls” are showing NO MOVEMENT of the Hillary supporters, to Obama.

I repeat. NO MOVEMENT since June.

Anyone know which poll(s) that report could be from?

Another data point for Barry demise scenario.

http://tinyurl.com/4wwdny

I heard a radio report today that stated “polls” are showing NO MOVEMENT of the Hillary supporters, to Obama.

I repeat. NO MOVEMENT since June.

Anyone know which poll(s) that report could be from?

Another data point for Barry demise scenario.

http://tinyurl.com/45rbyp

http://tinyurl.com/5472f8

http://tinyurl.com/3tjex8

Sept 15-21. It means nothing now.

49-47

Rasmussenreports.com

But by Not answering you’ve answered Me

The Battleground Poll is the most favorable to Republicans this cycle, so if you wan’t to believe their party ID weighting system, go right ahead. They are out on an island with their results, but feel free to celebrate.

Somebody will look like a fool on election day. But keep cherrypicking polls…

Somebody will look like a fool on election day. But keep cherrypicking polls…

To do any good with the Bailout, I guess telling fellow Dems that you will be there if needed & vote present isn’t much help, He gets to sit at the Little Kids table

http://tinyurl.com/3mnq3s

“True leaders” step up without “Bias” on
any cause that supports the welfare and safety of Americans-politics aside! BHO
doesn’t want McCain to cancel this debate
because he knows he can’t walk in the
foot steps of this great American Hero!
Foreign affairs experience from BHO is
like asking Rev. Wright to support the
“majority of Americans”! BHO knows McCain will win and wants to get this over quickly so he can get to the economy just before the election! BHO
though is only fooling himself to think
he can control that subject! This democratic congress has the worst performance that I have ever seen! Look
at their poll ratings! Reid and Pelosi
couldn’t lead a “horse to water”! Washington desperately need “reformer’s” that are not afraid to go against the tide to get things done for “all” Americans, not just a “select” few! A Bipartisan effort is critically needed to cure this economic mess!Independent and veteran for McCain/Palin!