In DJ Drummond’s blog discussing the latest AP-Yahoo poll, he stated that the poll was “biased in six distinctly invalid ways relative to known demographics”. So I decided to look for myself and I found 7 worth noting. And I compared his “known demographics with census information. These are the results from Knowledge Networks who conducted the poll, matched with DJ Drummond’s analysis. I made the type bold for DJ Drummond to make it easier to read.

First here are my sources:
A blog by DJ Drummond http://tinyurl.com/5jm2en (thanks PaRep),

A link to yahoo http://news.yahoo.com/page/election-2008-political-pulse-souring-on-mccain just click where it says “Full poll results”

UPDATE I was unable to produce the full tables due to formating, so I limited the sample to the first wave of calls. There is very little change from Wave 1 to Wave 8

Census info on 2004 election http://www.census.gov/prod/2006pubs/p20-556.pdf You have to scroll down to Table B.

Here are the seven fundemental problems with this poll, starting with the least objectionable.

*1. DJ Drummond – LV5 asks if the person is registered to vote. 86% say yes, so that tells you that unless the question was only asked of registered voters, one of every seven answers is irrelevant. *

Knowledge Networks – LV1. Are you registered to vote?

Yes, at my current address 76%
Yes, but at a different address 7%
No 13%
Not sure 3%

Census.gov – Registration and Voting 18 and older

Registered Voters (142,070,000)
Actual Voters (125,736,000) Note: 88% of those registered, voted.
Pop Eligable to Vote (215,694,000)

2. DJ Drummond – 22% of respondents are identified as 18-29 in age, versus 17% in that age group’s actual voting in 2004.

Knowledge Networks – AGE

18-29, 22%
30-44, 28%
45-59, 28%
60+, 23%

Census.gov – Age

18-24, 9% (11,639,000)
25-34, 14% (18,285,000)
Total Voted (125,736,000) Note: All %s will be calculated using Total # Voted, with Income the only exception.

3. DJ Drummond – In this poll, 13% of the respondents did not complete High School, versus only 4% of voters in 2004 who did not complete High School. 31% of the poll respondents have a High School diploma as their highest education, versus 22% of voters in 2004 in that category. The overweight is obvious.

Knowledge Networks – EDUCATION

Less than high school 13%
High school 32%
Some college 28%
Bachelors degree or higher 27%

Census.gov – Educational Attainment

High School/GED, 28% (35,894,000)

4. DJ Drummond – Whites in the poll made up 69% of the pool, versus 77% of voters in 2004. Hispanics in the pool counted for 13%, versus 7% who voted in 2004.

Knowledge Networks – RACE / ETHNICITY

White, Non-Hispanic 70%
Black, Non-Hispanic 11%
Other, Non-Hispanic 5%
Hispanic 12%
2+ Races, Non-Hispanic 1%

Census.gov – Race and Hispanic Origin

White alone, non-Hispanic, 79% (99,567,000)
Hispanic (any race), 6% (7,587,000)

5. DJ Drummond – In the poll, 84% of respondents live in urban areas, versus 30% of actual voters in 2004.

KN – METROPOLITAN STATUS
Non-Metro 16%
Metro 84%

Census.gov – not available in this report.

6. DJ Drummond – 58% of respondents to the poll make $50,000 a year or less, versus 45% of the actual voters in 2004.

Knowledge Networks – INCOME

Under $15,000 15%
$15,000 to less than $20,000 5%
$20,000 to less than $25,000 7%
$25,000 to less than $30,000 6%
$30,000 to less than $40,000 15%
$40,000 to less than $50,000 12%
$50,000 to less than $75,000 21%
$75,000 to less than $100,000 11%
$100,000 or more 8%

Census.gov – Annual Family Income of Actual Voters

<50,000, 33% (32,852,000)
Total family members, (97,352,000)

And my personal favorite…

**7. DJ Drummond – PID1 notes that the party affiliation split for the poll was 40% Democrat, 27% Republican, 21% Independent, and 12% undecided or other, which actually creates a DRI split of 40/27/33, as usual for this year far out of balance with historical norms.

PARTYID goes further, noting that 49% of the respondents consider themselves Democrats, 37% Republicans, and just 14% other or Independent, a contrast to PID1 which is not explained. **

Knowledge Networks – REG1. Do the state records show that you are currently registered as a Republican, a Democrat, an
Independent, or do voters not register by party in your state?

I’m registered as a Democrat 36%
I’m registered as a Republican 29%
I’m registered as unaffiliated or
Independent 14%
My state does not allow registration
with a party 4%
I’m not sure 16%

Knowledge Networks – PARTYID. Do you consider yourself a Democrat, Republican, an Independent, a supporter of some other party, or none of these?

Democrat 46%
Republican 37%
Independent 8%
Some other party 4%
None of these 8%

Census.gov – not available in this report, but of course it’s been the subject of many blogs and news articles. I’m pretty sure it’s been historically less than 12% Democrat advantage.

Its obvious the pollsters/Democrats are hoping for a different voting demographic than 2004.

If numbers exist on the demographics of where 2004 voters lived (ie. metro/non-metro), I will try to find them.
It would explain a lot if the pollsters are primarily polling in cities.

Updated Sorry about any formating errors, I’m relatively new to this type of format.