In a small rural courthouse in 1865, the stately and aristocratic Confederate General Robert E. Lee awaited the arrival of his rival, the rugged upstart Union General, Ullyses S. Grant. The differences between the two men were stark. While Lee had a storied and illustrious career, Grant had a more checkered career by virtue of his resigning his commission in the remote West after being discovered drunk while on duty. Lee played a prominent role in the Confederate military from the beginning of the war, while Grant was promoted into his present role a little over a year previous. Immaculately dressed, Lee received Grant, who was wearing a mud-spattered uniform and boots. The terms were generous, with Lee and his officers were allowed to keep their sidearms, horses, and other personal baggage. Grant even silenced his own troops as they broke out in cheer as the news of the surrender was relayed to them.

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Senator McCain:

Only a week remained until the election when operatives from your ill-fated campaign started leaking details to the press about Governor Palin going “rogue”. Rumor had it that she was running her own campaign within yours, with a focus on a personal run in 2012. Such behavior within your campaign might be part of the reason you lost the presidency to Barack Obama by a few million votes. I’m not suggesting that there was still a chance to convert some of his supporters to your campaign, but it evidently affected turnout on our side. Republican turnout was low by all counts, and it even amounted to 20% of Senator Obama’s support. One doesn’t need to be a campaign strategist to notice that if you managed to solidify the conservative base, you would have easily taken the presidency. What I am getting at, Senator, is that the leaks coming from inside your campaign as well as general ineptitude doomed your campaign. We all know about your famous comment earlier in the campaign that you’d rather lose a campaign than lose a war. Such a statement is evidence of what a fine patriot you are and it was one of the few reasons I chose to cast my ballot for you. However, the statement made later by your campaign manager, Steve Schmidt, pretty much summed up for me why you were not the right candidate to carry the colors for the conservative movement. When pressed about why your campaign did not bring up some of Senator Obama’s disturbing professional connections, Mr. Schmidt paraphrased your earlier comment by stating that you’d rather lose an election than run a campaign which was “dishonorable”. Senator, your campaign was dishonorable, but not due to anything you said or did to Barack Obama.

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With so many polls pointing to an Obama victory, this prediction is definitely one which goes against the trend. With that said, I didn’t make this one up out of nothing. It is apparent that McCain has problems. His Titanic has struck the iceberg and is taking on water fast. His only hope is being towed into port by the strength of his base and disaffected Democrats who are incredibly scared by an impending Obama victory. So, what gives? Why make such a prediction on a ship which is sinking, as columnist Charles Krauthammer alluded to in his recent endorsement of McCain. The secret, my friends, is that while McCain is taking on water while under tow into port, the Obama ship is dragging some serious anchors. And they’re about to snag on the rock of fear. The polls numbers reflect the electorate’s natural desire to punish the party in executive power for the economic crisis. It is true that McCain forever lost some voters because of this. But what is going to be the deciding factor is that he didn’t lose them all. Voters seething over the current administration and current crisis are going to pause before they pull the lever for Obama. The reason is clear. What makes a first term senator qualified to solve this crisis?

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With the media so blatantly relishing their self-appointed roles as Obama cheerleaders, it’s quite difficult to get a good enough read on public perception of the debates. So far we have had two debates (McCain/Obama & Palin/Biden), and if we believe the polling data, Obama and Biden are the respective winners. However, I did notice something peculiar in the reaction to both.

In the first debate, McCain hit all the points he needed to in coming down on Obama’s lack of experience and questionable judgment in foreign affairs. Various media analysts conceded this point, as McCain was a very least shown to have competence in this area. However, the polling and some analysts indicated that Obama was the clear winner. Why? The answers trickled in at first as Obama beating the expectations games since foreign policy was his perceived “weak link”, while McCain was supposed to excel in this field. A “tie” would then go to Obama since he needed to show that he was competent in this area. To win McCain would have had to totally humiliate him, which he didn’t. I also heard reasons such as McCain being condescending in not looking at Obama and being “cranky”. Honestly, I didn’t see this at all. In fact, Obama’s smirks, fake smiles, and interruptions were not flattering at all. The media started in on the “presidential look” that Obama seemed to carry. Maybe I was missing something?

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The lessons of history are there for all of our benefit. John McCain would do his campaign well by studying what worked in previous elections, as well as what didn’t work.

We’ll look at three elections which I feel have significance.

The most obvious parallel is 1976. Gerald Ford had nothing to do with Watergate, but he pardoned Nixon. This, as well as the sin of having an “R” after his name was just enough to defeat him. Barely. Today has much the same political climate. McCain is attached to Bush the same way Ford was to Nixon. You think McCain is in deep trouble in the polls right now by being anywhere from 6 to 9 points behind? Ford was at one point 33 points behind a relatively unknown and inexperienced Jimmy Carter. Yet the election was decided by only 2 percentage points in Carter’s favor. Again, this was a year in which Democrats were heavily favored over the damaged Republican brand. Losing by only 2 percentage points actually said a lot about Gerald Ford and even more about the elctorate’s general distrust of obscure candidates such as Carter and Obama. The only stark difference between 1976 and 2008 on the surface would be a drastically changed electoral map. Obama wont be able to sweep the South as Carter did, while McCain is unlikely to win in California and Illinois as Ford did.

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