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Correction made, but The Force is still NOT with Romney

By: noprisoners49 (Diary)  |  April 14th, 2012 at 05:46 AM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

First, I would like to extend a sincere thank-you to my detractors. You were quite correct…I did make an error. In my first post on the subject, I incorrectly typed in a value from the wrong cell in my spreadsheet. Instead of Romney needing 663 hard delegates, he needs 608. Other than a miss-read, my calculations are still correct.

Now I don’t know if Romney has already been awarded Party and Committee delegates (there are 69 of these), so let’s pretend they haven’t been awarded:
Romney currently has 536 hard delegates and needs another 608 to win the nomination outright.

If Romney gets 45% of the remaining 869 delegates from upcoming state and district primaries, plus all 69 Party and Committee delegates, he ends up with a total of (536 + 460) = 996 delegates.

If Romney gets 60% of the remaining 869 delegates from upcoming state and district primaries, plus all 69 Party and Committee delegates, he ends up with a total of (536 + 590) = 1126 delegates.

Romney is still shy necessary delegates even if he gets 60% of the remaining state and district delegates plus all 69 Party and Committee delegates.
How is Romney going to pull this off if he consistently struggles to get his poll numbers above 44%?

Maybe the RNC can just “deem” Romney the nominee – or he might buy every delegate a nice sandwich.

COMMENTS

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  • texastaxpayer

    Look let’s assume your right about the math. Let’s further assume Romney doesn’t get the magic number and he goes to the convention just shy… Two words for you friend “Super Delegates”. So yes the RNC will just anoint him if he is within spitting distance and we both know he will be.

    Romney will be the nominee its that simple. I hate it too but these are the cards we were dealt. The question now is how are you going to play them?

    • texastaxpayer

      http://dailycaller.com/2012/04/07/gop-superdelegates-its-over-romney-is-nominee/

    • noprisoners49

      What I *hear* are a lot of very unhappy people. After McCain, folks were pretty darned upset with the GOP sending a RINO out to beat a socialist. Now they’re at it again with another RINO. Plus, this time the RNC is manipulating numbers and has the MSM shilling for Romney.

      Romney does NOT have popular support, and the resentment is growing daily. How will Mitt inspire people to vote for him in November? Answer – he won’t, and Obama will win by default.

      Did you listen to Romney trying to reach the NRA yesterday? Major fail. He has no clue, and cannot win against Obama. It’s just that simple.

      Newt, on the other hand, is tuned in. People want major change. They want the shackles of an ever-growing and hyper-controlling government removed. Romney wouldn’t even try to ease the burdens imposed by government, and we would still get Romneycare’s big brother, Obamacare.

      • Viet71

        A lot, I hope.

        You’re a youngster. A piece of advice. Go with what you like. If you like Dem activisimism. You can make money in politics.

        • noprisoners49

          I’m about as hard-core Conservative as you can get, Viet. And I lost friends in VietNam. Don’t assume, don’t patronize.

  • http://908StraightSt.wordpress.com/ mbecker908

    Lay this out on a state by state basis. Show the delegate counts. And talk about where Newt or whoever is going to get the money to compete.

    • Viet71

      You assume the diarist is a sincere Romney opponent.

      The diarist is not sincere. He or she is a Dem interloper, whose task is to keep stirring up anti-Romney sentiment on Redstate. There are a handful of interlopers here. Krish and xymbaline are two other examples.

      • APA Guy

        Time to get Thor’s Banhammer out of storage :)

        • noprisoners49

          Step #1 – accuse the person who disagrees with you of being a troll or interloper.

          Step #2 – proceed with attacking the messenger and not the message

          Step #3 – get that person banned

          So how soon will I be banned for being anti-Romney? “Red State” should probably change its name to “Purple State”.

          • JSobieski

            Care to explain how there are only 869 delegates to be awareded?

          • noprisoners49

            It’s the hard delegate count that matters, JSobieski. There are only 869 of those remaining to be won.

            And yes, Romney does need over 60% of those hard delegates to win the nomination outright.

          • JSobieski

            The numbers I am seeing are more than a thousand.

            Why not provide the specifics so people can look at how you come up with the numbers?

      • noprisoners49

        “The diarist” is most sincere, and no I am NOT a Romney supporter. Romney is 2 or 3 clicks to the right of Obama and I will not vote for another GOP Moderate.

        I am instead a very proud Newt supporter!

  • JSobieski

    If you do that, you will find that you vastly undercounting the number of delegates that have not yet been awarded.

    There are a total of 2,286 hard delegates.

    By the RCP total (row 1), Romney has 656 of the 1,135 awarded delegates which means that there are 2,286-1,135=1,151 delegates yet to be allocated.

    If you use the official RNC count (row 2 on the chart), Romney has 573 out of 933 awarded delegates which means that there are 2,286-933=1,353 delegates yet to be awarded.

    Using your calculations, the number of total hard delegats would be less than 2,286 hard delegates. That is why you keep incorrectly concluding that Romney must get 60+% of the remaining delegates.

    • JSobieski

      So is the point that the 2nd half of the primary season has a vastly smaller roster of candidates (Paul and Newt aren’t exactly high profile from this point forward).

      I know that there are so many people no thrilled about Romney’s math, but I am surprised that people are so willing to lie to themselves about the numbers.

    • noprisoners49

      Romney does need 60+% of the remaining hard delegates to win the nomination.

      • JSobieski

        The “magic number” is based on hard and soft delegates.

        If you exclude that number from the total number of delegates, then you have to lower the corresponding threshold requirement.

        Otherwise, any idiot can just make up a requirement like . . Romney needs to get 90% fo the delegates if we exclude certain states, if we exclude delegates who are male, if we exclude delegates who are not bald, etc.

        Besides, Romney will get 60% of the hard delegates anyway.

        it is silly.

  • JSobieski

    You need to have colums for each of the following:
    (1) Romney’s delegates
    (2) Each of the other candidates
    (3) A total of the non-Romney delegates (summing 2)
    (4) The uncommitted delegates, which is calculated by taking 2286 and then subtracting (1) and subtracting (2)
    (5) The number of delegates Romney still needs to win, take 1,144 and then subtract (1)
    (6) Calculate the % by taking (5) and dividing by (4)

    If you do this, the proposition that Romney needs to win 60+% is shown to be inaccurate.

  • JSobieski

    According to the RCP, there are 1,151 delegates yet to be won.

    According to the RNC, there are 1,353 delegates yet to be won.

    How in the heck did you calculate 869 yet to be won, since the total number of hard delegates is 2,286?

    • JSobieski

      This diary is going to appear more and more silly as time passes.

      • tnfriendofcoal101368

        Here is what I have as outstanding to be awarded. I think there are 816 delegates left for grabs (states and delegate numbers below). Romney has 724 delegates (I think) and would need 420 to get to 1144. This means he needs slightly north of 50% of the remaining delegates. However, there is a flaw in the reasoning: it doesn’t take into account the winner take all states that are left. California, New Jersey and Utah are all winner take all and I really don’t think anyone believes that the plurality of the vote in those states will go to anyone but Romney. This is 262 of the remaining delegates. Add those 262 to 724 and this puts Romney at 986. Subtracting 986 from 1144, leaves us with 158 needed to clinch the nomination when factoring in the impact of the Winner Take All states. Subtracting 262 from 816, the proportional state delegates left are 554 so Romney needs 158/554 or 29% of the delegates awarded from the proportional states to clinch the nomination on the first round. This is a lead pipe cinch as long as he is alive to accept the nomination.

        Louisiana 46
        Indiana 46
        NC 55
        WV 31
        Oregon 28
        Arkansas 36
        Kentucky 45
        Texas 155
        California 172
        NJ 50
        NM 23
        S Dakota 28
        Nebraska 35
        Montana 26
        Utah 40

  • JSobieski

    Clearly an uphill battle that will require Romney to focus on each primary all the way to the convention.

    /sarcasm off

    The people so utterly convinced of Romney’s “uphill battle” should face up to the stridency of their belief that Romney couldn’t win.

  • Melody Warbington (rwm52)

    in this diary here.

    I was a Newt supporter as well, but Newt has moved on and so have I. You should do likewise.

  • http://908StraightSt.wordpress.com/ mbecker908

    Here

  • Ender

    You are stupidly conflating popular vote % with delegate numbers. Since you are persisting in this idiocy I will say it again.

    When Romney got 40%+ of the vote he won anywhere from 60 to 80% of the delegates of that state. That’s just how it works in the not
    Winner take all states. The popular vote does not correspond to the delegate count raked in. When you win 50%+ of the vote in a state you can often win 100% of the delegates of that state.

    So your ridiculous assumption of – you win 50% of the popular vote and you win 50% of the delegates is in the real world you win 50% of the popular vote and you win 100% of the delegates in that state. That’s how most of the so called “proportional states” work once you get 40-50%+ of the vote. Which is what Romney will start getting everywhere now without competitors.

    Which means Romney will actually get 80-90% of the remaining delegates. Which means Romney will get 1300-1400 delegates total. Which is why everyone in the real world knows Romney is the nominee 100%.

  • acat

    Grow the {copulation} up.

    Mew

  • Scope

    You thought that the candidate could exist that could get the majority of GOP voters behind them early and often, and run with him right to Pa. Ave. We had Bachman, Perry, Cain, Gingrich, Santorum, and some of those supporters feel so hard on their swords, and preached their undying love and devotion to the guy/gal they wanted, or they are going home. If they can’t have their guy, you can’t have your guy either. We thought it was only the Ron Paul supporters that allowed themselves to become so mind numbingly brainwashed. Some are just as stubborn as the most obstinate jackasses.

    Did you see where a university in Portland is now offering a course in Marxism? One of the requirements in signing up for the class, is that the person has to be a part of some movement such as OWS.

    Did you also see where Havud is going to be offering a course in “Understanding Obama”?

    I just read a headline where two Nazi lobbyists were hired to work the Washington scene. McCarthy was branded as a loon for even suggesting that there were any Communist sympathizers in the US, even by many in his own party. I expect the same will happen to Allen West, even though many of them are now out of the closet.

    Don’t get me wrong, I loathe the thought that Romney has probably already written his convention speech where he accepts the nomination, but, I much more so shake and tremble at the thought of an unrestricted and unhinged Obama winning re-election.

  • noprisoners49

    Nothing of substance to add? Just a feeble attempt at obscenity? The average American IQ is nearing 80, I suspect yours is close to that.

  • acat

    and UC Berkeley is almost as far out. Did you see the piece on Christian Communists I linked? The danger of mixing religion and politics never ends well, regardless of *which* religion or *what* politics.

    And yet, even though we’ve got a hard left president, even though he’s telegraphed that he’ll move further left after the election, even though it’s how Conservatives have lost the last umpteen presidencies, even though it’s clear to anyone with eyes to see, we *still* had the supporters of the twelve little “conservatives” tearing each other down and taking their balls and going home.

    The word “conservative” doesn’t stretch far enough to cover these emotionally-driven zealots… nor should it!

    Mew

  • noprisoners49

    That you’ve already given up. That’s real patriotism in action!

  • noprisoners49

    Do you have a smaller image? This one is too fuzzy to read.

    Santorum’s in debt too, not just Newt. And as far as campaign staff, Newt’s staff at the state and grassroots level is intact. Grassroots is especially active.

  • noprisoners49

    “stupidly”, “idiocy”, “ridiculous assumption” – nice way to discuss the issue.

    But you’ve made my point very nicely – it doesn’t matter to the political machine what the people want – only what’s good for the party.

    Try explaining your premise that a 40% vote for Romney turns into 80-90% of the delegates to the average person and see what reaction you get.

    1300-1400 delegates? Sorry, you’re dreaming. IF Romney gets the nod, it will be by the slimmest of margins. Your next task will then be to turn a majority of disgruntled constituents into enthusiast supporters. Won’t happen. Obama wins, and America as we know her will die.

    Great job GOP!

  • acat

    Look, Romney’s going to be the nominee. I don’t like it, but there is no statistically significant chance otherwise.

    Your continued bloviations about how he can still be stopped are counterproductive, they indicate you’re working out some kind of emotional framework, not a cold political one.

    Let us know when you choose to rejoin reality. Oh, and leave the mocking to your betters. You’re just not that good.

    Mew

  • gekster

    They truely are afraid of Romney, why else so much effort to destroy him.

  • Ender

    to understand it, doesn’t mean it doesn’t work that way. Can’t wait till you idiots see it happen. Unfortunately we will keep being treated to this dimwittism.