The HotAir October Candidate Survey was put out and the results are now up.

As many of us here know, the readership of HotAir.com is probably a bit more conservative than the general GOP base on average. The results of the survey though show just how fluid the race still is.

Herman Cain has bolted to the top of the rankings of all preferred candidates to 39% from a low of 3% last month. Among declared candidates, Cain has 58%. Romney is holding at 6%, up from… 5%. Palin for some odd reason is holding at 32% even after it’s becoming obviously apparent that she isn’t running. Even Christie is clocking in at 6%, which I guess some think no means yes. Bachmann has completely collapsed down to 1% after going off the deep end.

Which brings me to Perry. Perry shot up to 48% in the previous month. Now he’s down to 12%. The illegal immigration issue seems to be hitting Perry hard. I think the “don’t have a heart” comment topped off the issue and has people seeing red. I have seen him in personal interviews that I mentioned in a previous post, where he’s much better now, but he’ll have to do much more in order to gain back support he’s lost. Personally I would recommend to Perry to hire Frank Luntz and work with him on getting a simple strait forward positive message that the majority population is looking for in such depressing times.

Other stats though show an interesting picture. The male to female ratio seems pretty high for males. Although I do have to ask, is that normal, as the tendency of the parties is to have a so called “gender gap”?

The most interesting part of the survey is the “committed” question. So many indicate that they are “very committed” to their candidate of choice, yet month to month now we’re seeing huge swings on the conservative side of the candidates. I don’t think people are as committed as they think they are. This is more telling than all the polls so far in the race.

One last thing, there are candidates who are consistently not getting much support. As you see in the polling, all of the candidates on the RINO side are showing a ceiling to their support instead of a bottom.

I just finished reading an article over at HotAir.com on a Rick Perry interview at CNBC. I also watched the video of the interview which is imbedded.

FINALLY Rick Perry showed the confidence and poise that I’ve seen before he got into the race. He also finally explained in easy to understand reasons as to many of the issues he’s been hit with lately. It was also nice to see the governor of Florida there who also joined in on the interview.

Tina Korbe wrote the article and made the following quote.

“We need to have an immigration policy that’s thoughtful,” Perry said. ”We’re a rule of law country. We’ve got to have a secure border so that we know who’s coming in and we’re making the right decisions about who should come in and when they should come in and how long they should stay.”

Then, in a subject-concluding statement that sounded anything but weak, Perry promised to secure the border and “end illegal immigration” if elected president.

If Perry starts doing this with other issues like Social Security, I can see him regaining his footing and climbing back in the polls. What do you all think?

For some odd reason this poll that was completed Sunday night Sept. 25 has not gotten any press. So here’s some press.

In a national Poll Position telephone survey Sunday night of registered voters who said they’d vote in the Republican primary in 2012, 22% said they’d vote for Perry, 19% for Romney, 15% for Cain, 8% for Newt Gingrich, 5% for Ron Paul, 5% for Rick Santorum, and 3% for Michelle Bachmann. Five percent said they’d favor someone else, and 18% said they had no opinion on the question.

I’m guessing the Five percent for someone else is a combination of Huntsman, Johnson and others.

They seem to have standard polling methods for this poll.

This Poll Position scientific telephone survey questioned 507 registered voters nationwide who said they would vote in the 2012 Republican primary or caucus. The poll was conducted September 25, 2011 and has a margin of error of ±4%.

The QOTD has to be, will Cain be able to keep and expand on this surge after the success he had over the weekend. I know another poll put him in the lead, but we’ve already had discussions over that and don’t really count it.

Having checked around the conservative bloggosphere, some are starting to really warm up to Cain. Jain over at You Too, Congress! had to comment after this weekends events.

Despite the “Rick Perry for President” Bumpersticker on my car, I’m rapidly becoming a Herman Cain fan. Cain had a great debate Thursday night and handily won the Florida straw poll on Saturday.

She had even more to say but I’ll let you drop on by to read her musings.

Now I know it’s still way early, but it is fun to watch the race as it unfolds.

As the world turns edition.

Some days, as I read through the news postings, it seems that the world in one place or another, is having world shattering crises that will change the world as we know it. Well pardon me while I sit back and sip my tea to relax.

I can see you looking at me with a puzzled look, wanting to scream that if we don’t do something, life as we know it will change forever. I nod in agreement that life as we know it does change. This pisses off some who are active and on the go to “do something”. I ask what this “something” you want to do is. As you rattle off your ideas, I hear someone else behind you come up and say well I agree mostly but some of those ideas won’t work and we should try some other ideas they have. My head is spinning and it feels like Charlie Brown listening to his teacher saying “blah blah blah.. blah blah bla-blah”.

At this point, I just want to join the 50% of the population that just want to get by in life, having a little enjoyment along the way. I sip my tea, enjoying the flavor as it washes past my taste buds. I watch from a distance the dance of the politically engaged fighting for the goal lines on opposite ends of the field. People argue over who the quarterback should be while the rest of the team has been running plays without one. A quarterback completes the team, but alone can’t make the team successful.

Why is it that I seem so laid back and not as wound up as many others seem to be? I’ll let you in on a little secret I’ve learned early in my life. I’ve learned that things do work out in the end. It might not be what you thought or expected, but it does work out. It doesn’t mean you shouldn’t work hard towards your life goals, you should, but don’t be despondent if you fail or things didn’t work out like you initially wanted. The way I see it, one failure opens the door to a new opportunity that could be even better.

This philosophy of mine helps me stay positive in life. As the old saying goes, success comes from 10% sweat, 80% positive attitude and 10% BS. I take the last swig of tea, having enjoyed the relaxing time sitting back and reflecting on life. I’m so glad that my daughter has finally learned the value of hard work, along with the money she has personally earned. She works in an AT&T store at the mall, having already moved up to assistant manager after just 3 months. Talking to her about work, she’s learned more about the real world than she would have in 4 years of college. It has worked out with her, even after she had to deal with divorced parents since she was age 3.

I have a feeling that her generation will do better than we give credit. She is reflective of the can do attitude Americans have. The ability I’ve seen over and over again in America, when people say our time is behind us, somehow we overcome by reinventing ourselves. There is one big difference our country has compared to past super powers. We have people who know that money makes the world turn, but it’s an idea that can transform that world over. This is why I see great things ahead for us.

Take for instance people on the conservative side of the political isle who see socialism creeping into our lives more everyday. Yes it is true, those who want socialism keep pushing for more. But i counter that the more they push, the more capitalism will either push back or find ways around it. This is why socialist don’t get why their plans never seem to last or work out like they think it should. One example of a way around is Glenn Beck taking the route of going through religious institutions, pulling them together, and having them become a much stronger influence for good.

I also see a new level of technology that will help us get past the socialists. Here’s what I see in the next 25 to 50 years ahead. I see the electric grid going away while we flush our toilets to power our homes. Just think about it, your house will include it’s own power source. A new cheap synthetic gasoline with no carbon emissions which looks to only cost $1.50 per gallon. I see the education system changing over time, moving away from teachers and unions to a collaborative interactive system like Salman Khan has developed. There are stories of people developing educational software based on a fun gaming reward system that would help students learn all of high school in one year.

There is one thing I think will really change the world technology wise. It is a one word term, GRAPHENE. Graphene is a carbon based type material that promises to replace the use of rare earth materials in electronics and many other uses. It comes from processing graphite, which is about as abundant as water is. It will have as big an effect as the internet has had in the last 2 decades.

The future holds so much promise that I am not that worried about the present. I hope everyone who reads this is able to reflect on the bigger picture, and end up feeling the same way that I do. Just remember not to take life too seriously, you’ll never get out alive. In the mean time, pardon me while I have another cup of tea.

Mitt Romney was down in Miami, FL Wednesday holding a small townhall meeting talking and answering a few questions.

Some of his answers showed that he could be as “bi-partisan” as John McCain can be. Asked how he would work to elect a GOP majority in the Senate, Romney stressed his record working with Massachusetts legislative Democrats and said he could do it again in Washington.

“It would be nice to have my party in power,” Romney said. “But I’m not going to ignore the other party.”
“In Miami, Romney said he reached out to Democrats to make deals — most notably, the state health care plan, which he did not explicitly mention during Wednesday’s event.”

Huh? Does he not want a Republican majority? This just goes to show that Romney is the quivering jello mass who will not stand up for the conservative ideals or people while under withering attack. So many of us remember how it was so frustrating when GWB would not respond to outright lies and distortions of what was going on. We didn’t have GWB standing up like Reagan did while facing down both a Democratic congress and Soviet Russia. That standing up forcefully is what made Reagan a great president and GWB a failure in so many conservative’s eyes.

Of course Romney didn’t stop his quivering there.

Massachusetts Democrats weren’t the only ones on his mind. During an attack on Texas Gov. Rick Perry for his claim that Social Security is unconstitutional, Romney pointed out that Ronald Reagan “was a believer in Social Security” and said he intends to “protect it for future generations.”

He then added: “This came out of Franklin Delano Roosevelt, and I think it’s pretty darn good, and I’d like to keep it.”

So if I get this strait, Romney thinks a program FDR came up with is “pretty darn good”? Excuse me while I go puke up my dinner.

The article continues on about how Canada has this great immigration policy, that Sec. Duncan has done great things through the federal government, including the Obama – Race to the Top program. It’s all pretty sickening to read the quivering but I did get some relief when a Perry spokesman gave a response to it all.

“Mitt Romney’s own book compared Social Security to a criminal enterprise,” spokesman Ray Sullivan said. “Now Mr. Romney is again sounding like a Democrat, distorting the truth and trying to scare senior citizens. As he has so many times in the past, Mr. Romney seems to forget he’s a Republican.”

OUCH! The truth hurts when it’s a fact, and the fact is, Romney is too “bi-partisan” for me.

Sean Hannity had Ann Coulter on his radio show during his last hour. She still has her man-crush on Chris Christie, but she is leaning towards supporting Mitt “Mittens” Romney. She thinks that Romney will also end up being the GOP nominee.

She also tried to do a balancing act between Perry and Bachmann but ended up pushing some of the views that Bachmann was saying about the immunization.

I don’t know if Sean will have this convo up on his site, Ann might have it though but will appear later. Or someone might post a news article on it.

Is it just me or am I just going mad(crazy)? Seriously what’s with the GOP women this year? (Not all of them mind you, just the ones saying stupid stuff)

Seems that Romney is going to use the liberal attack line “Rick Perry: How can we trust anyone who wants to kill Social Security?” leading up to the next debate down in Tampa, FL.

The Tampa Bay Online news site has the details.

I am shocked that Romney would go to such underhandedness… oh who am I kidding. Of course he would resort to lying about his opponent who is leading him in the polls. I am curious to see how this plays out for Romney. If Perry comes back in the next debate and dispels this myth that Romney is putting out, it could really backfire on Romney. But what if the fliers go to people that aren’t really paying attention and to the debates, it could hurt Perry once those seniors start talking to all their friends.

I am curious as to what everyone else thinks. Any theories as to what Romney and Perry might be doing behind the scenes to jockey for the lead? I myself always try to see all this like a chess board and trying to see what the moves mean in the end.

UPDATE: Seems that Michele Bachmann is going to try and hit Perry on Social Security as well. Byron York has the details at the Washington Examiner I’m really disappointed that Michele would go this route but she is desperate to get back some traction after Perry took so much air out of her campaign.

Even Newt Gingrich seems to be knocking Perry on the Social Security issue in New Hampshire. It was reported that he said SS was “real”. But then said we should work to have young people under 40 be able to opt out. The Politico has a few excerpts but doesn’t really expand or have a transcript of what he said there. If anyone can find out if Newt published his remarks and link them, that would be great.

This is getting really interesting…

Background. Rick Perry has been in New Hampshire this weekend and was at a TEA party gathering answering questions. The story it seems starts when someone asked Perry about his stance on having a fence along the Mexican border.

The AP’s “version” of the event: Perry tells NH ‘no’ to border fence

“No, I don’t support a fence on the border,” he said, while referring to the long border in Texas alone. “The fact is, it’s 1,200 miles from Brownsville to El Paso. Two things: How long you think it would take to build that? And then if you build a 30-foot wall from El Paso to Brownsville, the 35-foot ladder business gets real good.”

Instead, Perry said he supported “strategic fencing” and National Guard troops to prevent illegal immigration and violence from Mexican drug cartels.

The answer produced an angry shout from at least one audience member. And it exposed an ongoing rift with some conservative voters over Perry’s immigration record.

Seems that there was another reporter blogger in the middle of the crowd there listening to the entire discussion, in fact the entire question and answer session. Jane Woodworth from youtoocongress.com recounts the entire time on her blog named Perry won’t be demanding Greek columns

I attended that event, stood about 15 feet from where he delivered those remarks and never heard an “angry shout”. Either the AP is making it up or it wasn’t much of a shout. Perhaps they can supply the audio.

From there Newsbusters picked up the story : AP reports at least one person shouts at Perry

I’m curious if anyone else who blogs was at the Perry TEA party event and could report on it.

I am also wondering that once this falsehood comes out, will the AP retract the story, or will they go even further and fire the reporter for making the ultimate sin in journalism….

Yeah like that is going to happen.

I have been tracking a lot of the news events on Sarah Palin. I know most of those that are really believe in Sarah are still pushing the notion that she’s just taking her time to announce that she is running for President.

I just don’t see it. She’s dragging things along to keep the media interested in her, but I think it’s for a different reason. I think she is using her popularity to help keep interest in the TEA party and help build the movement. I think she sees herself as a role model for those wanting to get into politics and help move the entire field to the conservative side.

Here’s why I say so. I see not only the actual change in politicians and the change of government, but the change of society itself. Think of it this way. If you see a convergence of the political side, the economic side, and the religious side in a way no one ever expected, wouldn’t you want to be at the front of it help leading the way?

More people are getting into politics who are more conservative, and sticking it out. This is really needed to slowly turn back the damage liberal socialist policies have done over the last century. So many states in 2010 turned their entire state level governments from Democrat control to Republican control. We also had the 2010 census and redistricting, which will help solidify Republican control in many states.

The TEA party is focusing on the economic side of things as it applies to political policies. Much of this movement has been helped by social media, as well as not getting tied to any political party has kept it going. The TEA party is the 2nd leg of 3 that is making huge changes, but it’s only a third of the electorate. It needs some backing.

The religious right, has been on the wane for the last decade but has found new energy as the world looks like something the end of the world coming. The surprising leadership on the religious side, I see, is none other than Glenn Beck. He has been working behind the scenes gathering religious leaders of nearly all faiths here in the US to help push conservative ideals in the USA, pushing back the tide of liberalism and all that.

I see Sarah filling the role of helping lead the TEA party leg. To be the educator of the public, using her ability to get media exposure. She has several things still going, that any person considering a run would have to put aside.

- She still has her FoxNews contract, and hasn’t been asked to drop if she is considering a run. The Huckster and Newt had to drop before they came out about a month later.
- She is scheduled for the TEA party events in Iowa and NH over the labor day weekend. I still don’t see any news other than TEA Party hype here.
- She is scheduled to attend Glenn Beck’s Defending the Republic Rally on October 7. All of the other candidates have been keeping their distance from anyone who would be a lightning rod to liberals and “moderates”.
- She is scheduled to attend the World Knowledge Forum from Oct 11-13. This would also conflict with a scheduled Republican debate around the same time.
- She has to register for the early primaries I believe by the end of October, which means having a team in place and organized at least several weeks before hand.

There is also polling which has been consistent in that even with her included, she has lost support and is only polling around 8%. Large numbers are also saying she shouldn’t run. Her politician side should be looking at that honestly.

She has said before that she knows she can’t string people along for too long. She has even dropped hints in writings she has posted at her Facebook page. I think she’ll finally come out mid September and say she’ll lead in helping the country and the Republican party but not run. I doubt at that point she’ll give her support to any candidate until after a clear winner in 2012 primaries. I could be wrong there, maybe if she see’s a good strong candidate (Perry) she’ll come out for them.

Let the flaming begin…..

The OMB which is a part of the Obama administration updated their economic GDP forecast for the rest of the year up through the 2012 elections.

OMB downgrades job growth forecast for 2012

The first paragraph pretty much says it all:

The Obama administration downgraded its forecast for economic growth Thursday, predicting turmoil in the economy will likely keep unemployment above 9 percent through next year’s election.

OUCH! The report goes on to say that they see only 1.7% GDP growth for 2011, down from a 2.7% projection. There is also a CNN poll that asked of Obama’s handling of the economy, with a disapproval of 65%, of course that’s lower than other polls that show even higher dissatisfaction.

Other things happening that will make those numbers worse for Obama (although how can they be that high with such a crappy economy?) is that the August jobs numbers will be coming out tomorrow, Friday. The private firm ADP that tracks just private jobs indicated Wednesday that 90,000 jobs were added, revised down from 102,000, which were revised down from 110,000 before that. However Goldman is predicting only 25k jobs total tomorrow, down from their initial 50k prediction. Zerohedge.com is thinking it might be slightly lower than that, maybe even negative. He also thinks it will only get worse in the next several months with higher negative jobs reports. Here is the latest post in showing THE UGLINESS!

Why unemployment is about to surge

Zerohedge.com also notes that anytime the GDP Year over Year drops below 2%, a recession follows. Says this has been true ever since 1948. Right now he says we are at about 1.5% GDP YoY. With recessions usually lasting 12 to 18 months minimum, this would really spell DOOM for Obama. People will most likely start to blame Obama instead of looking back to Bush finally.

One last DOOM! Rasmussen came out with a new poll today with Perry at 44 and the One at 41. It used to be Romney who was leading the One, but Romney is now trailing instead. Here’s the linkage:

Perry leads Obama

I sense a 1980 all over again.