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Observations regarding S&P’s Downgrade of America’s AAA bond rating.

They say the worst news in Washington is dropped on Friday afternoon. Yesterday was no different as Standard and Poors’s decided to downgrade America’s AAA bond rating.

While many in the political establishment (that includes many of us activist) view what may be profitible for the next election, businesses look for stability and solvency to ensure a return on their investment.

As a result I believe the following observations are important to note going forward:

* Republicans offered not one (cut, cap and balance), but three plans which would cut in excess of the 4 trillion requested by S&P.  This included Paul Ryan’s plan (~7 trillion) and Senator Coburn’s 9 trillion dollar reduction plan.

* Gang of Six technically reaches the magic number, but includes trillions of dollars in tax increases which offers businesses zero incentive to bring jobs or investment back to the United States.

* Democrats still refuse to provide any sort of long term deficit reduction plan outside of repealing the Bush era tax rates.

* Brinksmanship was just as much as a determining factor as the deficit its self. For those who argue conservatives could twist arms better after the August 2nd date, S&P disagree and cites such gamesmanship as a core reason as to why AAA could not be retained:

The political brinksmanship of recent months highlights what we see as America’s governance and policymaking becoming less stable, less effective, and less predictable than what we previously believed. The statutory debt ceiling and the threat of default have become political bargaining chips in the debate over fiscal policy.

Taking the budget to the edge makes investors and business people nervous. It adds unpredictability and concerns those who might seek to or invest in our bonds.

To be clear, I am not advocating folding like a cheap suit and implementing tax increases as Democrats sought. That is  wrong.

However, to intentially want to shut the government down and even appear to threaten the situation does more harm than good. This includes the United States Senate refusal to pass a budget for in excess of 800 days or President Obama’s refusal to propose any sort of plan.

*No real structural changes were made in the budget agreement proved very costly. While obvious for many of us, at the heart of the rational for the decision to downgrade, was the fact no real changes were made to ensure the solvency of entitlement programs.

Despite this year’s wide-ranging debate, in our view, the differences between political parties have proven to be extraordinarily difficult to bridge, and, as we see it, the resulting agreement fell well short of the comprehensive fiscal consolidation program that some proponents had envisaged until quite recently. Republicans and Democrats have only been able to agree to relatively modest savings on discretionary spending while delegating to the Select Committee decisions on more comprehensive measures.

Any real reform, such at the Ryan plan or cut, cap and balance address these core concerns and provide sound fiscal policy which addresses such issues. Without reforming entitlement spending investors will continue to look at our bonds with doubt whether or not we can pay them back.

* Most importantly, poor economic growth matters greatly. While the report notes that Democrats desire to increase taxes on “upper income earners” would bring in 950 billion over ten years, it is equally important to note tax revenues are a full 3.5 percent below the Bush years and account for 300-400 billion a year.

The key element here is not just the recession, but the core cause of why businesses are not re-investing. With the passage of Obamacare and the Dodd-Frank act, the cost doing business increases greatly. Combined with Democrats current threats to increase taxes, it dramatically depresses any optimism or opportunity for investment.

While entitlement reform is key to any long term budget deal, the environment for businesses to be able to make money and invest here must be changed.

If elected officials truly seek to tackle debt or the deficit under any plan, the economy must grow. Businesses must feel comfortable investing in people and resources.

As I’ve noted before, businesses small and big need certainty and encouragement that the money they spend will return as a net positive.  If the government’s policy is counter to this basic need, then the economy will not grow and our yearly deficits will only grow larger.

Simply put, Marco Rubio is correct when he stated that the system needs more tax payers as a pose to more taxes.

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COMMENTS

  • acat

    Brinkmanship was a bipartisan affair. S&P must be read as equally applying to the Dems in the Senate and White House who refused to even consider CCB or the Coburn plan.

    My take is that S&P would have downgraded regardless, but the country as a whole would be better off had we shut it down and forced a serious negotiation, instead of kicking the can. Again.

    Mew

    • Paul Seale

      To be clear, I am not advocating folding like a cheap suit and implementing tax increases as Democrats sought. That is wrong.

      However, to intentially want to shut the government down and even appear to threaten the situation does more harm than good. This includes the United States Senate refusal to pass a budget for in excess of 800 days or President Obama?s refusal to propose any sort of plan.

      The report also added this, which supported both of our claim that entitlements must be addressed.

      In addition, the plan envisions only minor policy changes on Medicare and little change in other entitlements, the containment of which we and most other independent observers regard as key to long-term fiscal sustainability.

      Thanks!

      • acat

        and yet, you demanded that those of us who were trying to force the situation to fold, and are now blaming us for making the situation worse.

        I .. disagree with your assessment of the situation.

        All we have achieved is a kicking of the can and a downgrade. I do not accept that this is all we could have achieved.

        I have not put together a diary blaming you for folding and putting us in this situation, however I may have thought that a time or two.

        Put shorter, in order to win it is necessary to fight. I have yet to see where you grasp this, Paul. You seem to want to compromise your way to victory despite decades of evidence to the contrary.

        Mew

        • Paul Seale

          You can color this however you would like it – and are missing the greater thrust of the piece.

          Whether you like it or not S&P saw brinksmanship (both Democrat and GOP) as wrong.

          That is not my opinion – that is what the S&P said like it or not.

          The problem goes as far back as Democrats in the Senate not passing a budget deal and or clouding business environment with rules and regulations which discourage people to invest.

          The stance which held that the closer to Aug 2 or after, the more leverage is a political view which added to the atomospher and yes – helped in deciding to downgrade.

          In the end, to make a blanket statement that those who are not willing to “crash the car” as you posted a while back, is just silly.

          I would argue instead of focusing on trying to keep crashing the cart to make a point (which is bad for business – case proven) we should work toward ensuring that the proper people like Coburn and Ryan end up on the committee.

          If we are fortunate enough, perhaps we will see something on the order of the Coburn plan passed out of that committee and approved by Congress.

          • acat

            The only way to not lose our rating was big cuts. This is a fact.

            The three ways to ensure big cuts were (a) Ryan’s roadmap (b) CCB (c) the Coburn plan. That these were offered and “on the table” is a fact.

            That the Dems engaged in brinkmanship, Obama threatening to withold social security checks, the various threats on the part of Dems in the Senate, are also fact.

            There was no way, once the Dems said they would go to the brink, for anything less from the GOP to get to a fair compromise.

            I’m not interested in brinkmanship, but I do understand that giving into someone who is engaging in it both reinforces their tendency to use it in the future, and undermines our ability to bargain from strength in the future. Ask any parent who has a kid over 5 years old how to handle a fit in a toy store.

            You can dress your willingness to give up any way you like, Paul. It’s still a decision to fail rather than to take a chance and see what could happen.

            Mew

          • Paul Seale

            Lets start off with the brinksmanship remark, shall we? It was you that said in another thread a couple of weeks ago that the difference between yourself and me is that you are willing to crash the car. That is a fact.

            It is also a fact that in this diary, other posts, and nearly every thread that I am aware and agree that large cuts are needed – as is a balanced budget.

            The question is (was) how do you get Democrats to go along with such cuts which are against the very fabric of their belief.

            You, and others, believed that brinksmanship was perferctly fine. In effect that the closer to, and past, August second the better.

            I argued that it was irresponsible of an elected official to act that way and to get as deep of cuts as possible and to play for what we wanted in 2012.

            I also noted the need for us to close ranks and move forward.

            That said, this entire article is not about brinksmanship alone. It points out that Republicans/Conservatives had it right – and that the battle isnt just about deficit reduction alone.

            The truth is, as Rubio stated, we need more tax payers. You achieve that by growing the economy and making the environment better for free markets.

            Yes, deficit reduction is part of that necessity to strengthen the dollar.

            S&P agreed with me (and many who run businesses) that the brinksmanship was over the top and led, just as much as the deficit its self, to the downgrade.

            Yes, as I posted in this diary and number of others, there are numerous plans which Republicans should push forward on. This means making sure we put the right people on the committee and continue to fight beyond this year.

            If you wish to continue to distort my beliefs and positions – but they stand as they are.

            None are a position of weakenss or willingness.

            In either case, I would argue that your rage is better served attacking those who would truly enjoy expanding government.

            Your choice.

          • littlehouse18

            and I believe it was their plan all along. They were the ones who kept saying no and ‘DOA’ and so forth, without ever offering up constructive suggestions. They were just biding their time until Aug. 2 so they could pull out this deal at the last minute and force it to be accepted. This is their standard operating procedure of the past few years.

          • acat

            claims to be my ally, yet does not appear to understand the nature of the opponent, and therefore does not understand what is necessary to survive.

            Yes, I said brinkmanship in this was the right course. I stand by that. The GOP should have shut down the government rather than raising the debt ceiling without real, substantial cuts. You have posted nothing that convinces me otherwise.

            The fact is, the Boehner fold was the only one of the plans that passed the House that could cost us the debt rating. The Ryan Roadmap or CCB would both have preserved it.

            Thanks in large part to those “adults” in the room, we are all going to be paying higher interest rates, and the economy will continue to decline.

            Thanks to Boehner capitulating (and you cheering him on) the economy is only going to get worse.

            Mew

    • mrlord4459

      All the debate and “brinkmanship” was meaningless save the idea that at least they were not arguing for more spending. Whether S&P would have downgraded if some of the bolder plans were enacted is irrelevant, in my mind. The facts are under any plan presented was that we are going to nearly double the debt in ten years.

      Can anyone argue the US is financially AAA with a projection of $27Trillion in debt? If balanced budgets were projected, and they are not, in that time frame, is there any expectation to repay? Think about interest service of $800BILLION per year! Does anyone predict that income in America will more than double in ten years? We will not even be able to service the interest.

      Getting a downgrade, now, might be the best thing. Nearly as dramatic as a shutdown but more flexible.

      Both parties and beltwayers over the years, albeit democrats more so, deserve to be somehow tried for treason or some sort of fraud, if only in some historical sense.

      Remember the magnitude of this debate- keep this in scale-
      1 Million seconds = 11 days-1 Billion seconds= 11years- 1 Trillion seconds= 32,000 years

      Without a CONSERVATIVE victory in 2012, and the will to balance the budget in 2-3 years- this deal is over, as we know it at least.

  • Tbone

    All you did during the debate was holler “compromise”.

    Well, your RINO Leader buddies did exactly that and got the downgrade.

    Putting up this diary to cover your butt ain’t workin’, Sparky. It’s hanging out big time with Barry’s and Harry’s bootprints on both cheeks.

    • gekster

      You have to realise that he is the smartest in the room.
      And as such, he can do no wrong, and he knows everything. ;)

    • Paul Seale

      In addition to m diaries.

      Contrary to your reply, the S&P’s analysis supports exactly what I have posted.

      What I, and a few others maintained, is that we should get as good as deal possible – as long as it didnt violate principles and raise taxes.

      We are correct to that end. The business community needs certainty and solutions, not political rhetoric focused on positioning for next years election.

      The whole bit of toeing the line and brinksman ship is one of the very core reasons the S&P downgraded. If you do not believe my quote from above, read the analysis your self.

      Democrats and President Obama are the ones who anger should be focused at.

      I cannot find a single exception of Republicans or conservatives in this fight arguing for tax increases or to continue expanding government.

      There is nothing inconsistent with my views or this post.

      • acat

        100% bull{manure}.

        The inconsistency is right there in front of your face. We could have gotten a better deal if we had held the line.

        Obama was desperate to have this go away before his birthday and .. guess what? He got his birthday gift right on schedule… thanks to people who think like you… cower in fear of rocking the boat today and hope that, by some miracle, someone else will come along and save us tomorrow.

        Guess what, Paul. There. Is. No. Cavalry. We save ourselves, by holding the line.

        Mew

      • Tbone

        No flavor, lots of bulk.

  • snowshooze

    They look at the numbers. The numbers say we are on thin ice.
    There is no preference as to spending cuts, or taxes…
    So long as the plan will work, they can work with it.

    It doesn’t matter if we tax the wealthiest at 95% or lay off 75% of the government employees and put them on unemployment. ( It would cost us less than if they were at work, anyway )
    All they care about is the bottom line.
    In this case, they have decided the bottom line of this deal will support a higher rate of return to the creditors based on risk.

    • carolina

      The 2012 election becomes ever more important.

    • acat

      while S&P don’t have a political motive, they have sure stirred up an ideological reaction…

      (http://hotair.com/archives/2011/08/06/for-whom-the-downgrade-tolls/)

      It’s an interesting read, esepcially as Paul here is doing the same thing the partisan left are engaging in – cherry-picking quotes from S&P and ignoring much of what S&P left unsaid.

      Mew

      • Paul Seale

        I posted the whole thing to read in entire paragraphs.

        In any case, you’ve hi-jacked the diary and posted the complete opposite of both the content and meaning.

        The truth is, I am pointing out exactly what the S&P said. To a point the chairman discussed what I posted on Cavuto’s show this morning.

        He noted the problem with revenue stream (poor economic situation and possible double dip recession – not so much tax revenues), spending and brinksmanship which created uncertainty.

        Like it or not, it is there in black and white.

        • acat

          I, for one, reject that blame as the base foolishness that it is.

          As for cherry-picking, you surely did pick a few quotes to insert in your diary. It’s right up at the top in black and grey. Block quote. Not the whole article.

          You continue to assert, in the face of contrary evidence, that the Boehner capitulation is the best deal we could get. I disagree.

          I haven’t hijacked anything, Paul. I’ve pointed out – repeatedly, and going back to our 2:00am conversation before Boehner folded like a cheap suit – that you’re mistaken on this.

          Mew

          • gekster

            He never will.
            Being always right means every one else is wrong..

          • acat

            of all the plans the GOP offered, and all the points – prior to and including S&P’s warning of impending doom – highlighting that the GOP kept offering plans while the Dems offered nothing but intransigence and brinkmanship.

            Read the time line at Ace’s comments board here. (note – Ace of Spades is not politically correct, expect salty language)

            In short, for every GOP plan offered, the Dems offered .. zero.

            And yet, we have to be the adults and fold.

            Mew

            p.s. yes, gekster, I did read your post. I even agree. I’m not letting this go yet.

          • acat

            over at Hot Air, naturally .

            As usual, Ed writes clearly, and cites several references, not just the S&P bond ratings guy but also Janet Daley and Heritage. (not copying Ed’s links, go read his piece for yourself…)

            The problem is the debt, and – to Paul’s argument specifically – the lack of spine to start addressing it at the earliest opportunity, whether you take that to be one of the nonexistent budgets, or the debt ceiling or .. next up… the continuing resoluitons.

            If we are to survive as a country, we must work to eliminate (not “reduce” but *eliminate*) the defecit, and to start to pay down the debt. We are on the wrong road, and the sooner we start trying to change lanes toward the exit, the better!

            Mew

            p.s. Yes, I still say it would have been better to risk crashing the car than taking Boehner’s fold-o-matic deal. A 50/50 (or even 75/25) chance of a crash now beats a 100% chance of it in the future .. and that’s what we’re looking at.
            Hold. The. Line.