She takes on Paul Krugman and exposes the antiquated nature of his policy recommendations:
Paul Krugman of the New York Times has been on the attack lately in regard to the New Deal. His new book “The Return of Depression Economics,” emphasizes the importance of New Deal-style spending. He has said the trouble with the New Deal was that it didn’t spend enough.
He’s also arguing that some writers and economists have been misrepresenting the 1930s to make the effect of FDR’s overall policy look worse than it was. I’m interested in part because Mr. Krugman has mentioned me by name. He recently said that I am the one “whose misleading statistics have been widely disseminated on the right.”
Mr. Krugman is a new Nobel Laureate, teaches at Princeton University and writes a column for a nationally prominent newspaper. So what he says is believed to be objective by many people, even when it isn’t. But the larger reason we should care about the 1930s employment record is that the cure Roosevelt offered, the New Deal, is on everyone else’s mind as well. In a recent “60 Minutes” interview, President-elect Barack Obama said, “keep in mind that 1932, 1933, the unemployment rate was 25%, inching up to 30%.”
The New Deal is Mr. Obama’s context for the giant infrastructure plan his new team is developing. If he proposes FDR-style recovery programs, then it is useful to establish whether those original programs actually brought recovery. The answer is, they didn’t. New Deal spending provided jobs but did not get the country back to where it was before.
As Shlaes points out, if you do not count the make-work temporary jobs that were handed out to people–jobs that “mask[ed] the anxiety of one who really didn’t have regular work with long-term prospects”–you had unemployment consistently above 14% from 1931 to 1940, with 20% unemployment six years into the New Deal. Even if temporary jobs were counted, unemployment would range from between 9% to 16%. The constant tax increases to fuel Keynesian programs certainly did not help growth. Neither did minimum wage laws, which kept employers from hiring more people because the few that were on the payrolls put a greater strain on employer budgets (money does not grow on trees, something that people like Paul Krugman always seem to forget when discussing the minimum wage).
Let’s give the microphone back to Amity Shlaes so that she can round things out:
Why does all this matter today? Because lawmakers are considering new labor legislation containing “card check,” which would strengthen organized labor and so its wage demands. Because employees continue to pressure firms to spend on health care, without considering they may be making the company unable to hire an unemployed friend. Piling on public-sector jobs or raising wages may take away jobs in the private sector, directly or indirectly.
What the new administration decides about marginal tax rates also matters. Mr. Obama said in a Thanksgiving talk that he wanted to “create or save 2.5 million new jobs.” People who talk about saving new jobs are usually talking about the private-sector’s capacity to generate jobs in the future — not about the public sector alone. We know that the new administration is going to spend. But how? It can try to figure out a way to do that without hurting the private sector. Or it can just spend, Krugman-wise, and risk repeating the very depression we seek to avoid.
One hopes that the Obama Administration, at least is listening to Shlaes’s sound warnings. Given his rabid partisanship, it is a good bet that Paul Krugman isn’t.
Steve Maley
Neil Stevens
Daniel Horowitz
Amity Shlaes
jcheney Sunday, November 30th at 12:31AM EST (link)I read the article she wrote over at The Wall Street Journal. She is great. Her newest book is a must read: The Forgotten Man.
Spend yourself rich!!!
vernonia Sunday, November 30th at 6:24AM EST (link)Brilliant, Dr. Krugman.
I have an added wrinkle for “New Trade Theory“–protect infant businesses by not taxing and regulating them to death.
And nothing says *declining returns to scale *quite like a New Deal-esque program: put a dollar in, get fifty cents worth of output back.
Dave Ramsey in 2012!
History will prove Krugman dead wrong...
Jim Sunday, November 30th at 9:47AM EST (link)Unlike in the 1930s, we cannot afford a New-New-Deal with the massive debt and unfunded liabilities we already have from 70+ years of central planning and a welfare state. Krugman seems to think there is a magic pot of gold from which the government takes to spend on “fixing” the economy. The producers in this country are getting close to being tapped out through oppressive taxation and regulation. Piling on more, combined with a weakening, diluted dollar (thanks Ben Bernake) will make it worse. As we slide more and more into disrepair and insolvency, I hope that history will show this Keynesian nonsense promoted by Krugman, Paulson, Bernake and the rest of the clowns to be a lie. Those advocating free-market economics, sound money, and less regulation will be proven right.
“If we wish to preserve a free society, it is essential that we recognize that the desirability of a particular object is not sufficient justification for the use of coercion.”
F.A. Hayek
“Laws are no longer made by a rational process of public discussion; they are made by a process of blackmail and intimidation, and they are executed in the same manner. The typical lawmaker of today is a man wholly devoid of principle — a mere counter in a grotesque and knavish game. If the right pressure could be applied to him, he would be cheerfully in favor of polygamy, astrology or cannibalism.”
H.L. Mencken
They already were.
seattle_ite Sunday, November 30th at 11:30AM EST (link)Sad to see so many “highly educated journalists” who’ve completely forgotten the Carter debacle. Krugman and Co. are old enough to remember, but have their Dem blinders on.
Pro-New Dealers like Krugman
ColoKid Sunday, November 30th at 1:01PM EST (link)can always say that the New Deal would’ve been more successful if it had gone further and spent more money. Sure, why not? If X dollars of federal spending can arguably reduce unemployment to as little as 9%, then X + Y dollars can reduce it even more. Simple, eh? And Krugman’s point was arguably confirmed during WWII, as the Great Depression ended because the war effort stimulated the economy while simultaneously removing 11 million men and women from the civilian workforce and putting them on the federal payroll. But the waste and inefficiency in federal spending during the war were monumental, tolerated for a limited time only because of the urgency of the war effort. As the Soviets discovered, that kind of spending program is disastrous on a prolonged basis. So Krugman can make his academic debating points, but as an economist proposing useful fiscal policy, he is totally irrelevant
Public vs Private sector jobs (and some basic Math for Liberals)
JLenardDetroit (Diary) Sunday, November 30th at 1:39PM EST (link)it is so simple that even a LIBERAL could understand it if they took a few minutes to actually THINK!!
Liberals love Govt. They will make these “jobs” (Biden, 3 letter word) Public (Govt paid) sector jobs rather than attempting to broaden Private sector employment. In this context, the Infrastructure build, 90% will be “temporary” jobs anyway (even if Private sector, projects end jobs end), and therefore no real long-term benefit. My point here though…
Any “job” that the Govt creates makes a demand to TAX Private sector more (or inflates Deficit/Debt) to pay for these non-productive (in so far as generating real “taxable”) income as the funds are “tax dollars” taken from actual productive citizens’ wages to begin with! Such an obvious/easy concept to most – anything the Govt spends is OUR MONEY taken from the Economy.
For every Govt. worker (any Govt. paid job or make-do worker) requires the allocation of dozens of “actual” Private sector economy “real” jobs to fund the Govt paycheck. This is NOT a solution, but a recipe for further disaster.
For the SLOW (read: Liberals)… in order to pay someone in a job created by the Govt and paid by Govt for say $30,000/year (w/o bothering to go into other costs above that simple wage) we must take AWAY from (let’s say) 20 peoples’ taxes (under an obvious assumption, for ease sake, that those 20 paid $1,500 in Federal Income Tax each). That is, of course, then $30,000 that the Federal Govt DOESN’T HAVE to WASTE (sorry, spend) on some other program (like National Defense see Can we afford the Obama/Dems $urrender doctrine and Dems and Law of unintended consequences) – which you know they will NOT cut any other programs to make up for. INCREASING DEBT!!! If you can’t understand with this GROSS over-simplification, you’re hopeless!
It is ONLY Private sector job creation that benefits the country.
Regards from NoMoTown (the MOTORlessCITY)
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in addition to taxes...
Jim Sunday, November 30th at 3:35PM EST (link)You’re forgetting the taxing people is so 20th century.
Nowadays the real way to expand the size and scope of government is to sell debt to foreign countries and, when all else fails, just print more money. Who cares if we are ripping off the rest of the world since we will never be able to pay any of that back. Who cares if the value of the dollar is going to drop like a rock when all this new money makes it way into the system (massive inflation).
“If we wish to preserve a free society, it is essential that we recognize that the desirability of a particular object is not sufficient justification for the use of coercion.”
F.A. Hayek
“Laws are no longer made by a rational process of public discussion; they are made by a process of blackmail and intimidation, and they are executed in the same manner. The typical lawmaker of today is a man wholly devoid of principle — a mere counter in a grotesque and knavish game. If the right pressure could be applied to him, he would be cheerfully in favor of polygamy, astrology or cannibalism.”
H.L. Mencken