In 2010 there are 435 seats in the US House that are going to be filled. Currently these seats are occupied by 258 Ds and 177 Rs. I think that the GOP has a good shot at picking up enough seats so that in the next Congress the Rs will occupy 228, and the Ds will occupy 207 seats. I would hope that the GOP can keep all but two of the seats the GOP have an incumbent running for reelection and pick up 53 seats currently occupied by Democrats. Ten months ago I could not have imagined this to be a possibility. A lot of good things are going to have to happen, but I really believe it can be done.
The gallery of photos do not include any new members who defeat an incumbent R in the primary, or anyone who occupies a seat that a retiring R occupied. The photos are people who will win a seat that had been occupied by a D.
The abbreviations for the states I envision GOP pickups include AL,AR,CA,CO,FL,GA,HI,IA,ID,IL,IN,KS,KY,LA,MD,MI,MS,NC,NH,NJ,NM,NV,NY,OH,PA,TN,
TX,UT,VA,WA,and WI. This took me quite a bit more time to investigate House elections than it did for the US Senate elections. Let me know if there are any errors I need to fix.
This is my dream freshman class that will include 53 new GOP members to the US House. I realize that some may have another individual to win in a GOP Primary than I picked, and it is not my intent to argue with you about that primary. I want, and I would hope, that you want a GOP candidate to win the General Election.
Cross-posted at The Minority Report





















































Jeff Emanuel
Good job.
NightTwister (Diary) Wednesday, December 16th at 8:23PM EDT (link)I’m not fully sold on Cory Gardner in CO-4 just yet. I want to see if Diggs Brown can get any traction. He’s one of those dream candidates that don’t come around very often.
“Baseball fits America well because it expresses our longing for the rule of law while licensing our resentment of law givers.” ― Major League Commissioner of Baseball A. Bartlett Giamatti
thanks NT
pilgrim (Diary) Wednesday, December 16th at 8:27PM EDT (link)The one thing we agree on is that Betsy Markey is going down to whichever R wins in the CO-04 GOP primary.
And a Kowalski...
NightTwister (Diary) Wednesday, December 16th at 8:28PM EDT (link)There are rumblings that Salazar is in trouble in CD-3 too, but I need to do more research before I buy into that.
“Baseball fits America well because it expresses our longing for the rule of law while licensing our resentment of law givers.” ― Major League Commissioner of Baseball A. Bartlett Giamatti
Alright Pilgrim! We have the same pick for NC 8!
nessa (Diary) Wednesday, December 16th at 9:28PM EDT (link)I must admit my selfishness when I saw the diary, that was the first thing I looked for. Actually I’ve been eagerly awaiting it since the Senate Freshman class was posted.
There are currently 5 Republican candidates for NC8, but D’Annunzio impressed me. Hopefully your right about all of them! Thanks for the diary.
“If you love wealth more than liberty, the tranquility of servitude better than the animating contest of freedom, depart from us in peace. We ask not your counsel nor your arms. Crouch down and lick the hand that feeds you. May your chains rest lightly upon you and may posterity forget that you were our countrymen.”—Samuel Adams
Contributor to Unified Patriots
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thanks for the recommend, nessa. nt
pilgrim (Diary) Wednesday, December 16th at 9:37PM EDT (link)Pilgrim, you did a lot of work to sort this out.
penguin2 (Diary) Wednesday, December 16th at 10:09PM EDT (link)I see you have Ben Loyola for getting rid of Glenn Nye-D. Nye got the seat based on Obama’s coattails, which I think will be gone in 2010. I know there are several people interested in this seat, including Scott Rigell, a local car dealer. We just had a primary to determine the Republican candidate for an open State Senate seat (Ken Stolle -R), who ran and won for sheriff here in Va. Beach. Rigell backed the winner of the primary Jeff McWaters, Loyola backed Rosemary Wilson, a long time local GOP city council and previous school board member. My take on Wilson’s loss, was the idea of fresh new blood being desired. BTW, Virginia’s special state elections to fill Ken Cuccinelli’s and Stolle’s seat is Jan. 12, 2010.
I like Loyola, and will see what else I can find out. One thing is fairly certain, you have it right, this seat should turn back to R, Nye doesn’t have much to commend himself around here.
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thanks penguin.
pilgrim (Diary) Wednesday, December 16th at 10:33PM EDT (link)I’ll let you in on a major source I used to put this diary together.
http://www.thegreenpapers.com/G09/House.phtml?v=a#VA
It is an excellent source for finding out who is running, and how much money they are getting together. From this I saw that Loyola has amassed a little more money to report than Rigell.
It is not everything. I also look for press clippings, but having the money is very important.
freshman class 2010
jlkpatriot Wednesday, December 16th at 11:01PM EDT (link)I live in col. Alan West’s district-19- in Fla. and let me tell you , he is someone to be excited about! My wife and I are volunteering for his campaign,as he represents the new brand of conservatism that’s needed in Wash. In addition to his stellar resume’ he communicates brilliantly our message , and is unafraid to confront Obama and any or all leftists in an effective and aggressive manner , necessry @ this time. He was great on Hannity last night, and will be on Laura Ingraham’s radio show tomorrow 10 am. Obama continues to be a disgrace on American soil, and we need to fight his agenda @ all turns!!
My Potential Freshman Class (Including Open Seat Holds)
MerrimackMan (Diary) Wednesday, December 16th at 11:05PM EDT (link)AL-2: Montgomery City Councilor Martha Roby
AL-5: Madison County Commissioner Mo Brooks
AR-2: Fmr. US Attorney Tim Griffin
AZ-1: Fmr. State Senator Rusty Bowers
AZ-5: Maricopa County Treasurer David Schweikert
CA-47: State Assmeblyman Van Tran
CO-3: District Attorney Martin Beeson
CO-4: State Representative Cory Gardner
CO-7: Aurora City Councilor Ryan Frazier
CT-4: State Senator Dan Debicella
10
CT-5: State Senator Sam Caliguiri
FL-2: Carl Meece
FL-8: State Representative Kurt Kelly
FL-22: Allen West
FL-24: State Representative Sandy Adams
HI-1: Honolulu City Councilor Chales Djou
IA-3: State Senator Brad Zaun
ID-1: Vaughan Ward
IL-11: Fmr. McLean County Commissioner Adam Kinzinger
IL-14; State Senator Randy Hultgren
20
IN-2: State Representative Jackie Wolarski
IN-8: Larry Buschon
KS-3: State Senator Nick Jordan
LA-3: State Represenative Nickie Monica (Yet to Announce)
MD-1: Fmr. State Senator Andy Harris
MI-7: Fmr. US Representative Tim Walberg
MI-9: Fmr. State Representative Rocky Raczkowski
MN-1: State Representative Randy Demmer
MO-4: State Senator Bill Stouffer
MS-1: State Senator Alan Nunnelee
30
NH-1: Manchester Mayor Frank Guinta
NH-2: Fmr. US Representative Charlie Bass
NJ-3: Jon Runyan
NM-2: Fmr. US Representative Steve Pearce
NV-3: Fmr. State Senator Joe Heck
NY-1: Randy Altschuler
NY-19: Nan Hayworth
NY-23: Doug Hoffman
NY-29: Corning Mayor Tom Reed
OH-1: Fmr. US Representative Steve Chabot
40
OH-15: Fmr. State Senator Steve Stivers
OH-16: Fmr. Wadsworth Mayor Jim Renacci
OH-18: State Senator Bob Gibbs
PA-7: Fmr. US Attorney Pat Meehan
PA-10: State Representative Michael Peifer
PA-11: Hazleton Mayor Lou Barletta
SC-5: State Senator Mick Mulvaney
SC-AL: Secretary of State Chris Nelson
TN-6: State Senator Jim Tracy
TN-8: Stephen Fincher
50
TX-17: Bill Flores
VA-2: Scott Rigell
VA-5: State Senator Robert Hurt
VA-11: Keith Fimian
WA-3: State Representative Jaime Herrera
WI-3: State Senator Dan Kapanke
WI-8: Door County Supervisor Marc Savard
WV-1: State Senator Robert Barnes
Of Course, it is unlikely we will be able to win in all 58 Districts, but these guys are probably are best bet to win in the General Election
And just as important:
TO HOLD OPEN SEATS (12)
DE: Fmr. State Senator Charlie Copeland (Yet to Announce)
FL-12: Fmr. State Representative Dennis Ross
GA-9: State Senator Lee Hawkins
IL-10: State Representative Beth Coulson
KS-1: State Senator Jim Barnett
KS-3: State Senator Dick Kelsey
MI-3: Fmr. State Representative Bill Huizenga
MO-7: State Senator Gary Nodler
OK-5: State Corporation Commissioner Jef Cloud
PA-6: State Representative Curt Schroder
SC-3: State Represenative Rex Rice
TN-3: Bradley County Sheriff Tom Gobble
I like your positive attitude
pilgrim (Diary) Wednesday, December 16th at 11:21PM EDT (link)Taking a positive attitude into the 2010 elections is the only way to fly. I also think the so-called “professional analysts” like Sabato and Cook are low-balling big time the numbers of pickups for the GOP in the “US House 2010 election.
Is 58 Too High
MerrimackMan (Diary) Wednesday, December 16th at 11:26PM EDT (link)Absolutely, But if you told me 75% of the people I just listed won, I wouldn’t be surprised at all, the Democrat majority was won in a number of really marginable places, it wouldnt be too difficult to tip the scales back in our direction. I’d say the GOP picks up something in the 30-50 Range after its all said and done.
We've got to have at least 40
Duane White (Diary) Sunday, December 20th at 4:51AM EDT (link)If memory serves me correctly, we picked up 53 seats in 1994. We only need 40 this time to take the Speakers gavel away from Nancy. If we get more- great. Would be fun to get at least 50.
The concern is in the Senate. We need 10 seats. Here in Washington we’re going to try to dump Patty Murray, but it’s going to be an uphill battle.
it’s just that they know so much that isn’t so.” — Ronald Reagan
41 not 40 are needed to take back the House. nt
pilgrim (Diary) Sunday, December 20th at 12:35PM EDT (link)This is one thing that I can stay positive on
Richard Mullins (Diary) Wednesday, December 16th at 11:45PM EDT (link)It’s not a doubt that 2010 is going to be a big pickup for the GOP in the house(I’m thinking more 80 can flop Republican and even more if Democrat voting is as low as they say). Pilgrim, I’ve noticed the lack of a picture of Quico Canseco. What gives? I want him to give Ciro D Rodriguez a permanent vacation. If there are less Texas donks in 2011, I’ll know why.
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Joe Biden is like a Decrepit Park owner with a Meth lab that happens to not only be a dealer but a user.
Let’s Bankrupt the Democratic paty. Make spend all the money to defend thier candidates.
I hope that more than the 53 I provided a pic for will win
pilgrim (Diary) Wednesday, December 16th at 11:54PM EDT (link)I only put up pics of 53 people from 31 states. Some of those other 19 states already have Rs elected in them, and it’s Ok with me if there are additional pickups from the ones that I projected.
I disagree with your choice of
Scope (Diary) Friday, December 18th at 10:56AM EDT (link)VA 5, State Senator Robert Hurt. Have you looked into his history on voting in the State Senate, and the House before that? He is not a conservative, he is a moderate, and the type so many want to not see in Wash. I hope you didn’t choose him because he has the backing of the RNC and the NRCC. There are plenty of alternative choices in that race, and, I don’t see Hurt winning in that primary.
Have you read Morton Blackwell’s diary? Mr. Blackwell and another Virginia Republican party member have written letters of endorsement for another of the candidates. They know he is not a conservative. I would let that slot open, but, be confident that a conservative candidate can win that seat from Perriello.
Pilgrim, how deep did you look at NC8?
nessa (Diary) Wednesday, December 16th at 11:44PM EDT (link)They have D’Annunzio at 300k and Huddleston at 100k. Yet the NRCC Young Guns program recognized Huddleston as “On the Radar”. Claiming “The NRCC’s Young Guns program recognizes top tier Republican challengers whose campaigns have shown the organization and broad-based fundraising support to win their Congressional race in 2010. The program helps ensure that top recruits meet ambitious benchmarks that form the foundation for victory.”
D’Annunzio self funded 260k to get started but reported on Monday he had raised 40k that week alone. Of course $50 for a night of indoor skydiving will raise a little money, especially with the adrenaline junkies around “The Home of The Airborne”. There are benefits associated with being a successful business owner after all.
Currently according to OpenSecrets, D’Annunzio has $312,021 and Huddleston still has $102,765. This is 3rd Quarter data so there’s a little lag.
My concern here is Huddleston and the NRCC. D’Annunzio is an “orthodox conservative” to use the MSMs terms from NY 23, I’m not so sure about Huddleston. From his website:
Frankly I have a very hard time trusting any Republican who would brag about working for that despicable, big-government, racist, traitorous POS, combine that with my instinctual wariness of **Commissioned Officers, then throw in the NRCC as the cherry on top and something doesn’t smell right here.
I need to find out a few more details…
“If you love wealth more than liberty, the tranquility of servitude better than the animating contest of freedom, depart from us in peace. We ask not your counsel nor your arms. Crouch down and lick the hand that feeds you. May your chains rest lightly upon you and may posterity forget that you were our countrymen.”—Samuel Adams
Contributor to Unified Patriots
teh twitter
Enjoy List
proudgop (Diary) Thursday, December 17th at 12:11AM EDT (link)I have different names for some of our nominees ( keep in mind people are still announcing)
My list of place where we still need top tier candidates is:
Murphy NY Edwards TX
Courtney CT Carney PA
Open Delaware Holden PA
Boucher VA Dahlkemper PA
Kosmas FL Altmire PA
Grayson FL Hill IN
Marshall GA Pomeroy ND
Barrow GA Stupak MI
Peterson MN Boren OK
Mitchell AZ McNerney CA
Matheson UT Braley IA
who decides if a candidate is top tier?
pilgrim (Diary) Thursday, December 17th at 12:58AM EDT (link)You list 23 contests that in your opinion lack a candidate who is top tier. Eleven of those you listed I have projected to win a seat in the House. Eventually we will get the results in the final vote on Nov 2, 2010.
of course its subjective
proudgop (Diary) Thursday, December 17th at 1:20AM EDT (link)To me if someone is an announced candidate and they have not raised that much money they aren’t top tier
Great Post
gopjohn13 Thursday, December 17th at 5:28AM EDT (link)It is very obvious that you put a lot of work into this. Is it possible to list each distrcit and the winner that you are projecting. I expect that the Republicans will win more than what you are projecting. Your post is an excellent starting point.
Thanks fror all of your effort on this.
you can see the information if you move your mouse
pilgrim (Diary) Thursday, December 17th at 6:45AM EDT (link)I have named each photo with the state, district, and name of each candidate. If you move your mouse over a photo you will see at the bottom in the status bar the information. For example the last photo is named WI-08 Reid Ribble.
Take another look
morstar150 (Diary) Thursday, February 11th at 5:10PM EDT (link)two months down the road. These high expectations are looking more doable.
One candidate I would like to talk about is Allen West Florida’s 22nd Dist. I saw him speak last night at a REC meeting and I was truly impressed, a military figure with a great presence. He is running against Ron Klien a wishy washy Pelosi pawn who just voted to increase the debt limit by 1.9 trillion. Col. West spoke to us about the absurdity of enemy combatants being given Miranda rights. He talked about the failed economic stimulus that put us deeper into debt and failed to produce any jobs. He talked about the impotence of the UN and the ridiculous irony that puts us at the same table with Libya.
It was a great night. He was very exciting. Watch for him; he is a new leader for all of us here.
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil, in its worst, an intolerable one. (Thomas Paine)