The Battleground Contests for 2010


Rand Paul had this to say after winning the Kentucky primary race for US Senate.

I have a message, a message from the Tea Party, a message that is loud and clear and does not mince words: We’ve come to take our government back.

Barney Frank said this recently to an audience of young democrats.

You can reach out to your fellow young people and make it clear to them, that when they may not be satisfied with everything we’ve done — we’re not satisfied with everything we’ve done. The way to cure that is to give us more authority and more ability.

Those two sound bites illustrate the divide between the Washington federal government establishment and We the People. There is a war that is very much like the war between the states this country had around 150 years ago. Only this time the rebels are in the establishment in Washington DC trying to transform our nation into something that it never was and was never intended. We the People are for preserving the Union of a representative republic with all the written constitutional limits and checks observed and respected. We did not fire on the fort, but Obama and his minions did by grabbing so much power that was never intended for them to hold. Wars are made up of battles, and the intent of this diary is to project a battle plan and where the battles are going to take place to win back a majority of Governor seats US House seats, and US Senate seats. I rely very much on Real Clear Politics to project in which congressional districts and states the battles are going to take place. For a battle plan I refer to two Civil War Generals, Stonewall Jackson and William T. Sherman. General Jackson earned the nickname Stonewall for holding the line so fiercely that it was like the enemy had just ran into a stone wall. The GOP needs to hold the line and win all the seats that are considered safe GOP, likely GOP, and leans GOP. The rest of the battle plan has to do with the seats that are considered toss-ups, and the GOP must run the table and rout all of these toss-up seats like General Sherman’s march thru Atlanta to the sea.

I would have liked to put up a picture of all the warriors the GOP has selected to direct the battles in all of these toss-up races much like this one, but I could not do it because a, I lack teh photoshop skilz and b, there are still contested primaries to determine who they will be.

Union Generals

Governors

Current Governors: The Ds have 9 safe or not up, 2 likely D, 1 leans D for a total of 12. The Rs have 13 safe or not up, 5 likely R, and 8 leans R for a total of 26. There are 11 toss-ups and 1 seat projected to independent former R Linc Chafee. If the battle plans work after the 2010 election there will be 37 Republican Governors, 12 Democrat Governors, and 1 independent. Winning is important for the 2012 election especially in states with large electoral votes.

The 11 Toss-up Governor Contests
California (55 EVs)
Meg Whitman
Meg Whitman
Illinois (21 EVs)
Bill Brady
Bill Brady

Ohio (20 EVs)
John Kasich
John Kasich

Minnesota (10 EVs)
Maryland (10 EVs)
Colorado (9 EVs)
Connecticut (7 EVs)
Oregon (7 EVs)
Chris Dudley
Chris Dudley

New Mexico (5 EVs)
Susana Martinez
Susana Martinez

PaulLePage
Maine (4 EVs)
Paul LePage
Vermont (3 EVs)
Brian Dubie
Brian Dubie

US House

Current House:255 Democrats | 177 Republicans | 3 Vacancies
The Ds have 150 safe seats, 23 likely D seats, and 27 leans D seats for a total of 200. The Rs have 165 safe seats, 10 likely R seats, and 25 leans R seats for a total of 200. There are 35 toss-ups. If the battle plans work after the 2010 election there will be 235 R seats and 200 D seats. New York is the state with the most toss-ups, and it is not known for having conservative Republicans. This just shows how one can not have control over where a battle takes place.

The 35 Toss-up US House Contests
NY-01
NY-13
NY-19
NY-23
NY-24
FL-02
FL-08
FL-22
FL-24
OH-13 Tom Ganley
Tom Ganley
OH-18 Bob Gibbs
Bob Gibbs
PA-03 Mike Kelly
Mike Kelly
PA-08 Mike Fitzpatrick
Mike Fitzpatrick
PA-12 Tim Burns
Tim Burns
VA-02 Scott Rigell
Scott Rigell
VA-09 Morgan Griffith
H. Morgan Griffith
VA-11 Keith Fimian
Keith Fimian
AZ-05
AZ-08
IL-10 Bob Dold
Bob Dold
IL-11 Adam Kinzinger
Adam Kinzinger
AL-02 Martha Roby
Martha Roby
AR-01 Rick Crawford
Rick Crawford
CA-11 David Harmer
David Harmer
IA-03 Brad Zaun
Brad Zaun
ID-01 Raul Labrador
Raul Labrador
IN-09 Todd Young
Todd Young
MA-10
MI-01
MO-04
Harold Johnson

NC-08 Harold Johnson
SC-05 Mick Mulvaney
Mick Mulvaney

WA-03
WI-07
WV-01 David McKinley
David McKinley

US Senate

Current Senate: 59* Democrats | 41 Republicans
The Ds have 45 safe or not up, and 3 likely D for a total of 48. The Rs have 33 safe or not up, 5 likely R, and 4 leans R for a total of 42. I list the 3 likely D with the 10 toss-up contests in the US Senate.

The 10 Senate Toss-up Contests

Pennsylvania Pat Toomey
Pat Toomey
Ohio Rob Portman
Rob Portman
Florida Marco Rubio
Marco Rubio
Nevada Sharron Angle
Sharron Angle
Illinois Mark Kirk
Mark Kirk
California Carly Fiorina
Carly Fiorina
Colorado
Missouri
Washington
Wisconsin

The 3 Senate Likely D Contests
Oregon Jim Huffman
Jim Huffman
Connecticut
New York

I have tried to provide a map of the battleground contests for Governor, US House, and US Senate in 2010. I hope the directors of this conservative and Republican website will consider endorsing some of these candidates. I hope bloggers will write to promote these candidates, defend these candidates from the attacks, and mock their opponents when the opportunity arises. These are the basic meat and potatoes contests that we need to win, and if we can win in other contests that are projected for a D win, then that will just be gravy for us. We can’t be sitting out the election because the perfect candidate is not on the ballot, because we are never going to have the perfect candidate. So let’s go to war. We have got about 140 days until Tuesday, November 3, 2010. Let’s Roll!
Cross-posted at The Minority Report


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1861-5 War of Northern aggression and 2009-10 War of ObamaDemLibDC aggression

Mike gamecock DeVine (Diary) Thursday, June 10th at 10:15PM EDT (link)

In the former, the fed’s Fort Sumter hit that cannonball hard….nah, we seceded and started the War between the States, but this time it is the liberal elite usurping the right of self government and We the People are defending against the radical ObamaDem rebels.

more later

Mike DeVine’s Examiner.com and Charlotte Observer columns
“One man with courage makes a majority.” – Andrew Jackson

If you want to go with that analogy...

Diogenes314 (Diary) Friday, June 11th at 1:59AM EDT (link)

The Northern oppressors had been waging economic warfare against the South for decades-and were threatening to escalate said warfare and put themselves in a position to do so permanently and with impunity.

Or something like that.

agreed - nt

Mike gamecock DeVine (Diary) Saturday, June 12th at 9:22AM EDT (link)

Mike DeVine’s Examiner.com and Charlotte Observer columns
“One man with courage makes a majority.” – Andrew Jackson

 
 
 

Pilgrim, thanks for keeping track of these races.

penguin2 (Diary) Friday, June 11th at 1:02PM EDT (link)

Of course, every race is important, but I have begun to pay more attention to the governors’ races due to the critical redistricting issues/shenanigans.

Scott Rigell is our VA-02 guy and I am satisfied with his primary win this past Tuesday. One problem we had here was too many conservatives in the race. 3 out of the 6. In the final stretch of the campaign two of the conservatives got a bit ugly in the campaign against the other. Mr. Rigell was the 3rd guy and he stayed on message with his campaign, which was to run against the D incumbent Nye the entire time. In a way, he is able to hit the ground running.

Yes, we are rated a toss-up, much to my disappointment; challenging work ahead as I understand that Nye and the Dem machine is ready to pour millions into this fight.

Resistance to tyrants is obedience to God. – Benjamin Franklin
When Good stands up to Evil, Evil blinks. – Vassar Bushmills

Conservative Education: Suggested Reading List

Activists Taking Action: Unified Patriots

thanks penguin for the recommend

pilgrim (Diary) Friday, June 11th at 2:12PM EDT (link)

I think that you and the good folks in Virginia’s 2nd congressional district can elect Scott and defeat Nye even with the opposition pouring the bucks in to stop you. Just be on the lookout for the attacks on Scott so you can smash the left when they do it.


Activists Taking Action: Unified Patriots

And this persistent cuss of a pilgrim does all this without secretarial help! - nt

Mike gamecock DeVine (Diary) Saturday, June 12th at 9:22AM EDT (link)

Mike DeVine’s Examiner.com and Charlotte Observer columns
“One man with courage makes a majority.” – Andrew Jackson

 
 
 

Any thoughts on Oregon-4?

Diogenes314 (Diary) Saturday, June 12th at 9:53AM EDT (link)

Art Robinson challenging Peter DeFazio. I first heard about this guy almost 10 years ago (thanks to Tom Bethell and the Spectator). He should make a great addition when the grownups take back Congress in November.

Some background info.

He’s challenged DeFazio to an interesting debate format.

He described the format as simple and direct. Each event would be two hours. The candidates would take turns talking for three minutes at a time, with a timekeeper but no moderator.

“This format will provide voters with an unfiltered, unchoreographed, open dialogue on the critical issues facing our district and nation, a dialogue they they greatly need and want.”

The audience could ask questions afterward, he said.

real clear politics calls Oregon-4 a safe seat

pilgrim (Diary) Saturday, June 12th at 10:24AM EDT (link)

If Robinson beats DeFazio then that is just gravy to add on to the 234 number I use in this diary. I hope Robinson wins.


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Okay.

Diogenes314 (Diary) Saturday, June 12th at 10:36AM EDT (link)

I don’t think is quite as safe as they think, but that may just be me.

We’ll see.

 
 
 

Pollak v Schakowsky for IL-9

redneck_hippie (Diary) Saturday, June 12th at 10:51AM EDT (link)

Since it is “safe” D, not a battleground. But Pollak is fighting hard. Schakowsky already ducked out of the Northwestern University debate which had to be “postponed.” Not holding my breath until she deigns to debate Joel Pollak and deems it necessary to actually answer all the questions Joel has been hurling her way via his blog on Biggovernment and elsewhere.

Check him out if you’re in his district or just think it is ultimate wonderful that an orthodox Jew is endorsed by both the tea party and Alan Dershowitz. An interesting candidate, intelligent, talented and HE FIGHTS!

He is the young man who was captured on youtube singing his “Ballad of the Tea Party” and also when he challenged Bawny Frank to splain his part in the financial collapse.


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I remember the exchange between Pollack and Frank

pilgrim (Diary) Saturday, June 12th at 11:06AM EDT (link)

I definitely hope that Pollack defeats Schakowsky, and we can have more than 234 House Rs.


Activists Taking Action: Unified Patriots

At the very least, Pollak's challenge

redneck_hippie (Diary) Saturday, June 12th at 11:16AM EDT (link)

will lessen the Helen Thomas-loving Schakowsky’s ability to donate funds to her cronies. You know, like Blagojevich, who she practically mouth-kissed during his candidacy.


Activists Taking Action: Unified Patriots

 
 
 

NY-13 is not a toss-up; State Senate more important anyway

Sean (SIConservative) (Diary) Sunday, June 13th at 6:30AM EDT (link)

According to April polling, Rep. McMahon leads both Republican contenders by 30-points and is polling at 56%. What’s more, he’s a Staten Islander and the Republicans running are Brooklynites. With the overwhelming majority of the district in SI, that makes a huge difference. Staten Islanders fiercely guard the independence of the Island and are probably more interested in having one of their own in Congress rather than a Brooklynite. This is in no small part due to the fact that the Island frequently gets shafted by politicians, though more those in Albany and Manhattan than in Washington. Even During Republican domination of Island politics, Democrats enjoyed a heavy voter registration advantage, so while the people tend to be conservative, they’re not partisans.

Further, the Island Republican Party is divided on the race, and activists and party insiders are not known for their Koombaya moments. It’s not uncommon for insiders/activists to vote against the Party’s nominee in the hopes of losing the seat to have a better shot at getting their guy in in the following election. Often, they won’t even pay lip service to party unity.

I can’t speak to the other races in New York, but NY-13 is definitely not worthy of “toss-up” status, and is especially less important as a target given that Democrats may be able to do away with the district in redrawing the districts, putting part of Staten Island in a district with Manhattan, which has been done before, and the rest with heavily Democrat parts of Brooklyn. Were that to happen, Republicans would be hard pressed to be competitive in either.

The most important New York elections this year are for the State Senate. Andrew Cuomo is going to trounce Rick Lazio, who should’ve switched races to challenge Gillibrand. Democrats have a lock on the Assembly, but only a two seat lead in the Senate. If Republicans can recapture the Senate, it gives us a say in redistricting. If not, Democrats could quite possibly redraw the districts to ensure that they will control both the Assembly and the Senate for the next decade. More importantly, they could very well draw up a plan to give Democrats a 29-0 advantage in Congressional representation. As such, it is far more important to be able to redraw the districts in play in New York than to actually win in districts that could no longer exist in two years.

thanks for NY-13 information

pilgrim (Diary) Sunday, June 13th at 8:03AM EDT (link)

Like I said in my diary I rely much on RCP projections, and I did not drill down deep to read news articles on each and every seat listed by RCP as a toss-up. The New York primary election is not until September 14th, and there is a good likelihood for many changes to happen between now and then. You also are in agreement with me and RCP that NY Governor seat is a safe Dem .


Activists Taking Action: Unified Patriots

 
 

Battleground Contests ?

Kenny Solomon (Diary) Sunday, June 13th at 8:20AM EDT (link)

How about every Congressional seat…. Every Senate seat, Every State, County and Local seat and elected office, including Dog Catcher ?

Nobody is in a seat they can’t lose……. Nobody. And the sooner we all realize that, the better. Career criminals politicians like Alcee Hastings here in Flori-duh MUST be sent packing.

The American people are being woken up from a deep-r.e.m. nap and they’re getting cranky about being disturbed.

I pose that every single electable office throughout our nation is vitally important – and yes, some are obviously more so than others.

However, do not lose sight of holding accountable and electing good people to your town councils, county commissions and under-governor state offices…. It’s absolutely vital to pay attention locally as well.

Yes, it’s overwhelming, especially with everything else going on around us.

But somehow, we all seem to be right there getting things done.

People ask me how I find the time to work, support several candidates and also go here, go there with my PA systems for political functions, work for two bands and also do other things (including watching my Yankees),

My answer is that I just do it. I have to do it, if for no other reason, to show other people they can too.

I agree Kenny they are all important

pilgrim (Diary) Sunday, June 13th at 8:48AM EDT (link)

What I am trying to do with this diary is make an analogy of the fight we find ourselves in with the war between the states. In that war the Union soldiers could not just march into Richmond Virginia and capture CSA Pres. Jefferson Davis. General Grant had to win some victories in Kentucky and Tennessee for example. I don’t want to give up on any contest, but I know it will take longer to win in some parts of the country than in other parts.


Activists Taking Action: Unified Patriots

I hear ya, Pilgrim.

Kenny Solomon (Diary) Sunday, June 13th at 10:01AM EDT (link)

I just didn’t before.

Great diary and comparison.

All I heard an hour and a half ago was the din of those damnable Vuvuzela Trumpets while I was trying to watch Slovenia v Algeria.

Now, it’s the same ‘swarm of a billion bees’ for Ghana v. Serbia.

I gotta get a life.

;)

 
 

Great comments, Kenny

redneck_hippie (Diary) Sunday, June 13th at 10:47AM EDT (link)

Pil is doing important work to focus on some of the races where a good general would be allocating his reinforcements.

Doesn’t mean we aren’t watching and participating in all the contests we are close to and able to join.


Activists Taking Action: Unified Patriots

 
 

Maine seems poised for a Republican governor!

From ME to You (Diary) Thursday, July 8th at 3:35PM EDT (link)

The 1st Congressional district doesn’t seem to be as ‘locked’ up for the Dems as it usually is.

Rasmussen has Lepage (R) at 43% and Mitchell (D) at 36% (MOE 4.5%, 95% confidence) for Governor

First District is rated at only +1 leans Democratic (RCP) kinda low for this area. That shows that Pingree (D – ME 1) is vulnerable. Scontras would do wellto hammer home Pingree’s support for the Healthcare Program as it has only abput 30% support in this heavily Democratic area!

Photobucket

Thanks From Me to You

pilgrim (Diary) Thursday, July 8th at 3:51PM EDT (link)

I did update that there are 11 instead of 10 toss-ups, but I forgot to add that the 11th one is Maine. Pickups in Governors could be the most positive result of the 2010 elections.


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I'm not sure if Maine should be classed as a 'toss-up'!

From ME to You (Diary) Friday, July 9th at 3:31PM EDT (link)

Libby Mitchell’s numbers are driven by her name recognition. Paul Lepage was really a relative ‘unknown’ that cam e in from “right” field and won the Republican nod.

The fact that he has a 7% in polling right off the bat is fantastic and VERY surprising. Having been a Republican mayor in a very Democrat area is no small potatoes (Maine agriculture joke there, buy Maine potatoes!!!)

Waterville is the 13th largest city in Maine with a population of just over 15,000 and, I’m quite sure, because of it’s Franco-American heritage, leans heavily Democrat. (I’m of French-Canadian descent so that’s not a racist statement! LOL)

With little fanfare, a meager budget, almost no high profile campaigning he managed to get 37% of the primary vote that had 6 other candidates to chose from!. The message he did put out resonated very well with the voters and his ‘no-nonsense’ approach will sell well across the board.

He may be Maine’s answer to Governor Christie of New Jersey!

Photobucket

I hope you like the Paul LePage photo I added

pilgrim (Diary) Friday, July 9th at 4:49PM EDT (link)

It looks like in body shape there is a similarity with Chris Christie. I hope he wins, and can govern in similar fashion to Christie.


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Yes....Mr. LePage and Gov. Christie do have similar...'styles'!! nt

From ME to You (Diary) Saturday, July 10th at 4:53PM EDT (link)
 
 
 
 

Check. Awesome, most useful post pilgrim. ty! /nt

Veronica (Diary) Friday, July 9th at 4:49PM EDT (link)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Pray as if everything depends on God, and work as if everything depends on us. – St. Augustine

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

thanks Veronica

pilgrim (Diary) Friday, July 9th at 4:59PM EDT (link)

I am going to continue to update this diary as more primary elections wrap up, and as Jay Cost at RCP changes his projections.


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