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The 2012 US Senate Elections

By: pilgrim (Diary)  |  August 5th, 2011 at 01:48 PM  | 

RESIZE: AAA


There are 14 months to go before we vote for who 33 of our 100 US Senators are going to be. There are 37 Rs and 30 Ds who are safe because their term is not ending in 2012. The breakdown of those 33 seats is 23 currently held by the Ds and 10 currently held by the Rs. Eight incumbent Rs are seeking reelection, 17 incumbent Ds are seeking reelection, 6 open seats are currently held by Ds, and 2 open seats are currently held by Rs. The Ds do not have a good record to run on. They have not proposed, let alone passed a budget bill for over 826 days. They will do an all out name calling negative campaign against their R opponents because that is all they know how to do. I would love to see all 33 seats won by the Rs. This would give us a filibuster and veto proof majority of 70 Rs to 30 Ds. Now let me switch from “electing constitutional conservative to public office” cheerleader to political oddsmaker. In short -  Let’s. Get. Real.

According to a prominent political handicapper, Larry Sabato, there are 5 states that a liberal will not be elected in, and 7 states that a conservative will not be elected in. The 5 states safe for the Rs include:
Mississippi: incumbent R running
Tennessee: incumbent R running
Utah: incumbent R running
Wyoming: incumbent R running
Texas: incumbent R retiring

The 7 states safe for the Ds include:
California: incumbent D running
Delaware: incumbent D running
Maryland: incumbent D running
New York: incumbent D running
Rhode Island: incumbent D running
Vermont: incumbent D running
Washington: incumbent D running

This brings the tally to 42 Rs and 37 Ds in the Senate. With my cheerleader replaced by my political handicapper I want to emphasize that defeating an incumbent R or an incumbent D in the primary and winning the general is nearly an impossible task. Yes, it happened in Utah when Mike Lee won. This is the exception and not the rule. Look at what happened in 2006 when Ned Lamont won a primary over Joe Lieberman. Look what happened in 2010 in Arkansas when Bill Halter tried to defeat Blanche Lincoln, in Colorado when Andrew Romanoff tried to defeat Michael Bennett, in Arizona when J.D.Hayworth tried to defeat John McCain, in Pennsylvania when Joe Sestak defeated Arlen Specter, in the Alaska primary when Joe Miller defeated Lisa Murkowski. In each instance there was not a happy ending for either the Ds or the Rs. I am not going to call anyone names or try to dissuade them from trying to primary an incumbent, but history shows us that these attempts are mostly unsuccessful.

Larry Sabato has listed 6 states that should elect a Republican and 9 states that should elect a Democrat. (Please note that I replaced conservative and liberal with Republican and Democrat.) The 6 states expected to elect a Republican include:
Indiana: incumbent R running
Maine: incumbent R running
Arizona: incumbent R retiring
North Dakota: incumbent D retiring
Massachusetts: incumbent R running
Nevada: appointed incumbent R running

The 9 states expected to elect a Democrat include:
Connecticut: incumbent D retiring
Minnesota: incumbent D running
Pennsylvania: incumbent D running
Hawaii: incumbent D retiring
Florida: incumbent D running
Michigan: incumbent D running
New Jersey: incumbent D running
Ohio: incumbent D running
West Virginia: incumbent D running

This brings the tally to 48 Rs and 46 Ds. The Rs still hold a slim 2 seat advantage, but they need 3 more seats to have the majority in the Senate. The fight over the final 6 Senate seats is the battleground that will determine who wins the majority, and for these reasons they are going to be the most important seats to pick the most electable conservative candidate. If there is another wave election like 2010 I believe the GOP can win all 6 seats. The 6 states listed as Toss-ups include:
New Mexico: incumbent D retiring
Virginia: incumbent D retiring
Wisconsin: incumbent D retiring
Missouri: incumbent D running
Montana: incumbent D running
Nebraska: incumbent D running

The only poll that really matters is taken on November 2012 election day. I hope I have not depressed anyone living in one of the 46 states projected for the Ds. That is not my intent. It is late enough now to become involved in choosing these US Senate candidates. It is not nearly enough to attend Tea Party meetings and write blogs. Get active in your local Republican Party. Do not wait for an invitation or assistance in going through the process of becoming a precinct committeeman. Take it upon yourself to attend any meetings you become aware of, and ask people that go to these meetings just what you need to do in order to become more involved. The establishment may not want you this active, but it is your right, and obligation to do so – if you want to make a difference in 2012.

Cross-posted at Unified Patriots

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COMMENTS

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  • Repair_Man_Jack

    Each state has gone right of where it was in 2008, based on 2010 election results. Ohio, I almost give the GOP a better than coin-flip chance in. Sherrod Brown is a vulnerable man. Two Cap_And_Trade votes have forced him to hack-off portions of his base.

    • http://www.unifiedpatriots.com/ pilgrim

      I hope that you are even more optimistic with respect to the 6 states that Sabato lists as Toss-ups all getting won by the GOP. I want the strongest efforts to be toward winning those toss-ups and winning the majority in the US Senate instead of the strongest effort be made to prove Sabato is wrong about Michigan.

  • Kyle-MI

    I think we have a shot in Florida and Ohio.
    Michigan is hard to tell. Stabenow is definitely the weaker of the two MI Dems but the Detroit stronghold is hard to overcome statewide.
    I would put NE at leans R. It is just too red and there is bad blood against Nelson.
    We should have a good shot in Montana, too. We have about the best GOP candidate we could hope for there.
    I am hopeful about Virginia, too.
    MO should be favorable for us. It went red in 2008. Of course, the Dem has the power of incumbency and she has certainly played at being a conservative Dem.
    I am least hopeful in NM and WI. In WI the Dems seemed energized over the union issues. I would not be surprised if they are successful in the recalls and even oust Gov. Walker. The unions and voters seem financially suicidal in the same way that CA is.

    I don’t think Brown will survive in MA. At best I would put it as a tossup.

    Even so, I like our chances at this point.

    • http://www.unifiedpatriots.com/ pilgrim

      My only guess is that in the case of ND it is an open seat while in NE the incumbent D is seeking reelection. There were a lot of supporters in 2010 for Dave Westlake to win the nomination for Senator in WI. Perhaps 2012 is going to be Westlake’s opportunity. The states that have a Republican Governor have an organizational advantage in NE, NM, VA, and WI. In MT and MO the GOP absolutely needs to recruit the most electable conservatives to win in spite of the Dem Governor in those two states.

    • gawken

      And we’re gonna retire Nelson also..

      • mikeymike143

        either adam hasner or mike mccalister is going to hand nelson his walking papers next year.

        • electionwatch

          Nelson needs to go. He is a far-left socialist who wants more government intrusion into everything. I’m not making any endorsements (yet!), but, I think Republicans will have a good chance with Hasner or McCalister, and maybe even Vern Buchanan (if he runs). I’m not endorsing anyone yet.

    • lastgopinillinois

      is nothing but a professional spin doctor and her true voting record is being exposed to the public over the MSM in the form of TV commercials sponsored by one of the conservative 527 groups.
      She talks out of one side of her mouth and votes another. I think there is a good chance she gets defeated.
      Americancrossroads is the best thing to happen for conservatism in the history of the US because it airs ads across all the local TV stations.
      This is what we need to win in 2012

  • youngconstitutionalist

    I think it’s pretty much a foregone conclusion that the Republicans will pick up the Senate, the question is by how much. Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, and North Dakota are almost certain to go GOP. The Dems likely won’t pick up any in return (Brown has high approval ratings). In addition, FL, MI, NM, OH, WI, VA are definitely up for grabs, which could put the GOP up to 57. I’d also say WA is not in the solid Dem category. WA nearly returned a majority GOP delegation. In the D+3 WA-2, solid conservative John Koster was within just a few thousand votes of knocking off Rick Larsen, and there was only one district (Jim McDermott’s Seattle district) where the Democrat exceeded 60%. The Governor’s race also appear favorable. In a wave election cycle (theoretically possible, I think), I could see Washington going red. There are other states listed in the solid or likely Dem that I think could swing GOP in a wave election, but I do not know enough about them myself.

    • http://www.unifiedpatriots.com/ pilgrim

      As the election draws nearer some of those 6 states listed as Toss-ups today may be projected as likely R. One thing I believe is a must is the GOP must have a candidate in all 33 contests. Do not just concede anywhere. The Dems need to worry and spend time and money to defend every seat from a GOP opponent.

    • onemovoter

      Especially FL, OH, and WV should be on the toss up list in which the Dems hopefully will lose.

      What we need is an article a little later down the road of the candidates running, especially on the GOP side.

  • http://www.examiner.com/x-1597-Charlotte-Law--Politics-Examiner Mike gamecock DeVine

    given how early this is.

  • Ausonius

    A group called Crossroad Grassroots Political Strategies has financed this very effective ad against Brown:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TVVs9Z2Z3qY

    As always, quoting the Dem’s words and actions is most effective. Leftists supply us with ammunition against them every time they vote for or speak for higher taxes, surrender, and policies to encourage the spread of mediocrity.

  • acat

    GOP POTUS candidates who are, according to Erick, not viable; McCotter and Santorum, respectively.

    Santorum lost to Casey, and Pennsylvania is far worse off now. If Santorum can leverage his increased national profile and, more importantly, any funds he’s raised for the POTUS race to challenge Casey to a re-match, Pennsylvania is in play.

    McCotter is well suited for Michigan, as a successful republican, who has been pro-union in the past so can’t be immediately rejected. About the only candidate I can think of who’d be better is Romney, given his family history in the state, and his money. I can see Michigan being in play.

    I also only see Wisconsin being a toss-up if the GOP nominate a lousy candidate. If we see a good candidate, Wisconsin will be possible. Also, be on the lookout for the Dem candidate – if he or she made any public statements during the Dem statehouse walk-out protests, we’ll need to make sure they go viral…

    Mew

    • electionwatch

      it will be tough for them to win. I believe Santorum is the only candidate there with good name recognition, and in new polls of the Republican presidential primary in PA, he’s in second with over 10% of the vote, and is down 2 in a hypothetical matchup with President Obama (elsewhere, Santorum’s not polling too good). I think Santorum would be a good candidate for PA Senate against Bob Casey.

      In Michigan, former Rep. Pete Hoekstra is in the race, and will make it competitive with Debbie Stabenow. McCotter has MUCH less hame recognition than Hoekstra, and would not poll as well against Stabenow. There are already a bunch of other challengers already in the Michigan Senate race (most are tea party-affiliated), so, McCotter would just complicate the race. I think McCotter should run for re-election to his house seat, and run for Senate in 2014 against Carl Levin (D).

      In Wisconsin, it will be an uphill battle for any Republican if former Senator Russ Feingold (D) runs, which, as of now, looks unlikely, as Rep. Tammy Baldwin looks like she is getting in. It is all but sure that former Wisconsin Governor and former HHS Secretary Tommy Thompson will get into the race. He will probably proivde Republicans with the best chance to pick the seat up, although he is more of a moderate, and I have known in the past that he supports an individual mandate. Maybe former Rep. Mark Neumann will run….

      • acat

        to be an egotist. If he runs, it will be in part because he’s feeling left out.

        Mew

    • http://www.unifiedpatriots.com/ pilgrim

      The three states I think are the safest for the Ds of the 9 listed as likely or leans D are Hawaii, Michigan, and New Jersey. The black turnout is going to be a lot bigger from Detroit and from Newark in 2012 than it was in 2009 and 2010, and they will vote straight D instead of split their vote. Hawaii will have a huge turnout of Ds with Obama’s name on the ballot. The EPA and Interior regs against coal and natural gas are going to put Pennsylvania, Ohio, and WV into play as places the Rs can pick up seats.

      • acat

        The “hail mary” point first. Black turnout in Detroit is predicated on Obama being the candidate. What if he’s not? I’ve been asking this for a while, and .. I’m not the only one looking at Obama and thinking “Weak horse”. The Hot Air article here (http://hotair.com/archives/2011/08/05/ralph-nader-were-totally-going-to-primary-obama/) says Nader’s eyeballing Obama too… and I am not so senile as to forget that Obama was supposed to be an also-ran in 2008. Sometimes, the also-rans catch lightning in a bottle….

        The more serious point is Michigan – if Obama is the candidate, and if the economy still sucks – and things are very bad in Detroit, IIRC – he’s going to depress Dem turnout outside of the black bloc.

        Could a Perry/Pawlenty ticket – Pawlenty being from neighboring Minnesota and having his own compelling narrative to add to Perry’s – have coattails long enough to, maybe not to win in Michigan, but to bleed the Dems? Force them to fight for it?

        Any dollar they spend in Michigan cannot be spent in Pennsylvania or Wisconsin…

        Mew

        • http://www.unifiedpatriots.com/ pilgrim

          .

  • ningrim

    Who are the Rubio, Paul, Lee, Johnson, Toomeys of this election cycle?

    I’m looking for allies that can go on television into hostile environments and persuasively articulate conservative economic doctrine.

    Also, are there any Tea Party challengers to Roger Wicker in Mississippi? If I recall he is one of the top porkers in the Senate, and I’ve never heard him lead on anything. Utah, Indiana, Mississippi all seem like states where a more conservative option is still electable.

  • mbauer

    The game is always to tick the entire country 3-4 points to the right before election day. The 6 toss ups would change to likely R and the currently likely D races become toss ups. Then we can start talking about a filibuster proof majority.

  • spainishirish

    Thanks.

  • toothpick

    I would love to see a Republican-majority Senate elected in 2012. I live in the People’s Republic of California, which seems to be in a steady slide to bankruptcy thanks to my state’s unshakable faith in the Democrat / Progressive philosophy of governance.

    I could spend my time in 2012 trying to help a Republican unseat Diane Feinstein, but your post suggest that is a fool’s errand, bound to fail. Should I instead give up on my own state and spend my time helping a candidate in one of the toss-up states? And is that even possible? For example, via long-distance phone-banking?

    • redneck_hippie

      (Illinois) Phone banking is a great way to get involved long distance. There will be many races needing support in the toss-up states.

      For on the ground activism, my district is so red that for the House races, I cross over and support challengers in other districts.

      • proudgop

        Republicans clearly are on offense I only worry about holding open Nevada and Mass will always be tough though Brown does look solid

        ND Berg looks to be only candidate and state has no primary but convention so it looks like he will be nominee
        NE Hopefully its not bitter primary but Nelson should be tossed
        MO I think Akin probably get nod and Claire should be tossed
        FL should be close
        VA and MT are gonna be close but I think will break our way

        Republicans are putting races in PA, OH, WI, NM, MI and all will be battleground states and depending how low Obama is a lot Dems could get washed away

        we still need candidates for open races in Hawaii and Conn. Manchin in WV needs tough opponent