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Random Thoughts About the 2012 Nomination Process

There have been many false narratives promoted throughout this primary season by the establishment elites, and also by the pundits and national media. The reason for these false narratives have varied. The first one was the “inevitability” of Romney winning the nomination. This narrative was promoted by establishment elites in order to clear the field and discourage people from entering the contest. The liberal national media wanted the contest over quickly to give Obama extra time to smear the nominee. Inevitability can’t begin to be considered until a candidate begins winning at least 50% in the polls, and none of the candidates have done this.

Another false narrative promoted is that the contest is between Romney and the non-Romneys. This narrative is linked to the first one in order to promote the inevitability of Romney. Now some of the punditry are promoting the narrative that the contest is between Gingrich and the non-Gingrich. In my opinion these narratives are both phony.

There is a false narrative that the candidates who have dropped out of the contest have only themselves to blame. I think they are only partly to blame. The punditry talking points are similar to the American Idol judges’ critiques in that their opinion influences those who text in their votes. If you like and have respect for the opinion pundits or judges, then you tend to follow their lead. It also means you are less likely to vote for those receiving a bad critique.

Some think the debates have been a wonderful way for the voters to pick the candidate to support. I disagree, and my disagreement is not with the concept but with the way they’re structured. The RNC Chair set up these contracts with the liberals at ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN, and FOX to run these debates and it has given the liberals the power to have the Republican candidates look petty and silly. We conservatives are to blame for not filling up the empty PC slots with like-minded conservatives to get an RNC Chairman elected who cares less about making himself look good to the media, and more about improving the image of the Republican Party in the eyes of Americans. I’m not criticizing the ability of Priebus to articulate conservatism, but I am criticizing him for the deals he has made with the liberal media – they are not helping the Republican brand. All of the Republican debates should have been on C-SPAN with conservative moderators like Mark Levin, Michael Reagan, Fred Thompson etc. It is difficult for good people to subject themselves to the abuse of running for office when the RNC surrenders moderation and control of debates to the liberals.

One recent meme is that the base of the Republican Party simply does not like Mitt Romney. This one makes me laugh. “Like” is such a social network Facebook kind of word. Voters are looking to identify who they think is the best person for the job of president. The ability to articulate is so much more important a factor than the “like” factor. George Will recently put it this way:

But if Romney says even one more time “I believe in America” – a bromide worthy of Tom (“Your future is still ahead of you”) Dewey – voters may decide there is no there there.

The last observation I have about this 2012 nomination process is that I do not understand how the primary calendar is decided. If it was decided to reward on the basis of the outcome of a state in the previous Presidential election, then Oklahoma should have been the first primary state in 2012. Oklahoma is the only state that Obama did not win a single county. The rules for the elections in Oklahoma are different than any other state. Oklahoma Registration Deadline: 25 days before the election. Only voters who are registered members of a recognized political party may vote for the party’s candidates in primary and runoff primary elections. You cannot change your political affiliation “from June 1 through August 31, inclusive, in any even-numbered year.” Voter ID cards won’t be issued during the 24 days prior to an election. A party is defined either as a group that polled 10% for the office at the top of the ticket in the last election (i.e., president or governor), or who submits a petition signed by voters equal to 5% of the last vote cast for the office at the top of the ticket. An independent presidential candidate, or the presidential candidate of an unqualified party, may get on the ballot with a petition of 3% of the last presidential vote. Oklahoma is the only state in the nation in which an independent presidential candidate, or the presidential candidate of a new or previously unqualified party, needs support from more than 2% of the last vote cast to get on the ballot. State law prohibits the state from accepting a candidate’s candidacy if the $2,500 cashiers check and the declaration of candidacy are not submitted together. Oklahoma operates as a winner-take-all system if a candidate achieves a majority of the vote (i.e. over 50% of the vote). However, it is a modified winner-take-all system because the delegates are allocated proportionally if no candidate breaches the majority vote threshold. Stated another way, in a modified winner-take-all system the at large delegates are allocated proportionally based on a 15% threshold; however, they are allocated on a winner-take-all basis if a candidate achieves over 50% of the vote.

Cross-posted at Unified Patriots

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COMMENTS

  • lizzie

    I like pilgrim’s idea of Oklahoma, or whichever state makes sense for the next cycle.

    and, even tho I did not start watching the “debates” until Perry entered, I do not necessarily think the problem is solely “liberal media”, butrather the quality of the moderators, but, more importantly, the 60-second answer format.

    The Forums I have watched have been far more informative, but we now also see the difference once you get down to 4 or 5 on the stage – more time to answer.

    My biggest beef is that candidates need at least one year of fulltime campaigning to get to name recognition.

    I kind of miss those smoke-filled rooms instead of what has become a media circus that amplifies a gaffe, and echoes the conventional wisdom.

    If Iowa and New Hampshire insist on being first, then they should both go to closed primaries. No caucuses. No last minute party registration change. Force independents to choose a party in order to have a voice if we are stuck with the Two-Party duopoly.

    I am only registered as a dem in New York because we used to have primaries where we could stop the ultra-left liberals.
    Now, half of all NY registered voters stay at home in despair.
    I protest vote the elimination of most primaries in favor of ‘coronations’ since 2002.

    • http://www.unifiedpatriots.com/ pilgrim

      The worst example is Stephanopolis asking the candidates if a state has the right to ban contraceptives. When Newt added his own one-on-one debates on C-SPAN first with Gingrich and then with Huntsman, they were much more informative than what we got from the networks.

      • lizzie

        I know most of the media thought George S’ persistent questioning of Romney on “if a state has the right to ban contraceptives” was silly, but, it was actually quite important for four reasons:
        1) handed the DNC another “Mitt Fit” because Romney got really flustered.
        2) proved that even having a Harvard Law degree could not keep Romney look ignorant of the landmark 1965 SCOTUS Griswold v CT, which not only established the right of privacy, was the precedent for Roe v Wade, but also finally overturned the last of the 1873-1880′s state Comstock Laws that had banned contraception.
        3) so, how can Romney convince anyone he is capable of assessing judicial nominations? Griswold v CT was the result of an almost forty-year use of the judiciary to overturn the state Comstock Laws because it proved to be near impossible to change them in the state legislatures, especially in New York and Massachusetts.
        4( The term “Banned in Boston”, which I assume someone Romney’s age has heard of, was coined when Margaret Sanger was arrested while speaking about contraception on a stage in a public theatre in Boston, Massachusetts.

        Rick Santorum knew exactly why George S was asking that question.

        I wrote a grad school paper on those Comstock Laws and why Margaret Sanger was forced to use the judicial route, leading to 1965 Griswold v CT. It was the last Comstock Law to be removed. It was still against the law in Connecticut for a doctor to even counsel married couples about contraception. Estelle Griswold was a Catholic, married into a prominent CT family, and also the President of CT’s Planned Parenthood at the time, which was originally about contraception.

  • Scope

    I was trying to remember how long ago it was that I first saw the words “inevitable” and “Romney” being used. For sure it was before the field was even populated with the candidates who eventually threw their hats in the ring. Many argue that there is no “next in line” backroom dealing that happens within the GOP, but, if that is so, how did so very many of the Republican elites, pundits, talking heads, moving lips, and Fox decide to get on the Romney bandwagon early and often? Do we really have that many people who can be bought for a price. Now that it seems that their plans may be backfiring on them, I would hope that those that participated for whatever reason, have found that no matter how much they try to push a candidate on us, that candidate is not a sure thing, and on the contrary, they are less “electable” because they are seen as “selected” rather than “elected.” That is a Democrat game. How often do you see more than one or two Democrat candidates running for any office, usually they run unopposed by anyone within their own party, as they seem to be pre-selected.

    I’ve wondered who was in charge of the Republican debate schedule. I wasn’t aware that it is something that is agreed to be the RNC Chair. Again, I go back to the most recent election of Preibus. Steele was an unmitigated disaster. He suffered not only from hoof in mouth disease, but his associations and attendance at some questionable events lead to his early demise, thankfully. I and others wondered at times who side he was really on. We all read the varied stories that Prebius was already “selected” long before voting day happened. I remember reading that Haley and Henry Barbour had some shenanigans going on their to insure his election, if that was true. Again, another case of “selected” not elected. What ever could have been in his mind to allow our candidates to be moderated mainly by the liberal media, that most assuredly doesn’t have the Republican agenda in mind, or in their hearts. I could care less if someone prefers thin crust or deep dish. The best debate this year was conducted by Huckabee, when he invited 3 Atty’s Gen. to ask the most important and pertinent questions. They were barred from going for each other’s throats, unlike the MSM free for alls.

    Every single election season their are cries to please please change the primary schedule, especially with respect to who goes first. Election season goes away, we lose, and everyone forgets they had gripes against the primary schedule, until the next election season comes up again.

    Nothing, and I mean absolutely nothing will change with the GOP while we still have the same arse prints imbeded in the seats in the Senate and the House. Heck I’ve seen an article headline claiming that Mitch McConnell may be poised to become the new Senate Majority Leader. Nothing can be more disastrous. In the quest to have anyone with an R after their name to fill a seat, the same insanity just becomes same thing different day. The very same is happening with our run for the presidency. I’m not overjoyed.

  • http://redmerrimack.blogspot.com/ charliebravoNH

    is money. It is not just the local media and local businesses in the early states that make money off the early nominating contests. The State and local party committees also are able to raise a lot of money with Presidential Candidates roaming the states. In NH if you want to be State Party Chair or National Committeeman or National Committeewoman your ability to defend NH’s first in the nation primary is a huge factor in you getting elected. The first in the nation primary is huge in NH. The top dogs of both parties as well as the top elected officials will do anything to protect it.

    As far as open primaries and caucuses go, you notice Iowa, NH and SC all make it easy to vote register for the party in the contested primary or caucus. Why? higher voter turn out. Higher turn out means more candidate visits. The bottom line is this, even if you switch the early states. Say move Iowa and NH to the bottom and move OK and Utah to the top, over time the same influences will prevail because of the money factor.

    The RNC had the right idea by moving the calender later and creating a proportional delegate award system. This reduces the media momentum factor which gives too much influence to the early states and forces candidates to drop out too early. Unfortunately Florida messed this process up knowing full well the RNC didn’t have the gonads to move the national convention to another state.

    For any body who cares there is a bill to close our primaries in the NH legislature. It is doubtful this bill will get anywhere, but there is an attempt to give conservatives a voice in what should be our primary.
    http://www.gencourt.state.nh.us/house/committees/billtext.aspx?billnumber=HB1595.html

    • http://www.unifiedpatriots.com/ pilgrim

      I know there is no perfect solution to the primary calendar. I am most critical of the deals that were reached on debates. In my opinion the RNC chairman wanted to look good to the networks much more than he wanted Republican candidates to look good to Americans.