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Four Scenarios for the 2012 Presidential Contest

By: pilgrim (Diary)  |  April 29th, 2012 at 09:49 AM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

Cross-posted at Unified Patriots

In the next five months a lot of things may happen that have an impact on who wins the presidential contest. We’ve already seen biased analysis by political pundits with their own agenda of either striving for attention or scaring folks. I am not a political pundit, and the only reason I have for writing this piece is to provide a sane and reasonable perspective of the presidential contest. I do believe I am informed with respect to election trends recently and also over the last 20 years. First I will list the states that I believe Obama and Romney have from the start.

    Obama starts with 205 electoral votes

  1. DC
  2. California
  3. Colorado
  4. Connecticut
  5. Delaware
  6. Hawaii
  7. Illinois
  8. Maine
  9. Maryland
  10. Massachusetts
  11. Minnesota
  12. New Jersey
  13. New York
  14. Oregon
  15. Rhode Island
  16. Vermont
  17. Washinngton

    Romney starts with 209 electoral votes

  1. Alabama
  2. Alaska
  3. Arizona
  4. Arkansas
  5. Georgia
  6. Idaho
  7. Indiana
  8. Kansas
  9. Kentucky
  10. Louisiana
  11. Mississippi
  12. Montana
  13. Nebraska
  14. North Carolina
  15. North Dakota
  16. Oklahoma
  17. South Carolina
  18. South Dakota
  19. Tennessee
  20. Texas
  21. Utah
  22. Virginia
  23. West Virginia
  24. Wyoming

    Romney needs 61 and Obama needs 65 of these 124 electoral votes

  1. Florida
  2. Iowa
  3. Michigan
  4. Missouri
  5. Nevada
  6. New Hampshire
  7. New Mexico
  8. Ohio
  9. Pennsylvania
  10. Wisconsin

Scenario 1

    Romney gets the minimum 270 electoral votes needed to win by winning these additional states

  1. Florida
  2. Missouri
  3. New Hampshire
  4. Ohio

Scenario 2

    Obama gets the minimum 270 electoral votes needed to win by winning these additional states

  1. Florida
  2. Michigan
  3. Nevada
  4. New Hampshire
  5. Wisconsin

Scenario 3

    It’s a 269-269 tie if Romney only wins these additional states

  1. Florida
  2. Iowa
  3. Missouri
  4. New Mexico
  5. Wisconsin

Scenario 4

    Romney wins in 1980 Reagan-like fashion if Obama only wins in these states

  1. DC
  2. California
  3. Delaware
  4. Hawaii
  5. Illinois
  6. Maryland
  7. Oregon
  8. Rhode Island
  9. Vermont

God only knows what will be the final outcome of the 2012 presidential contest. I hope my assumptions about the District of Columbia and 16 states for Obama and the 24 states for Romney are not considered far-fetched. I also hope my assumption regarding the 10 toss-up states is fair. The states in Obama’s column have voted more than 50% of the time in the last 20 years for the Democrat nominee for president. Included in the Romney column are the three states that in 2008 Obama received just over 50% of the vote – Indiana, North Carolina, and Virginia. Missouri is the only one of the 10 toss-up states where Obama received slightly under 50% of the vote, and over the last 20 years Missouri has voted just over 50% of the time for the Democrat nominee.

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  • APA Guy

    Romney gets the minimum 270 electoral votes needed to win by winning these additional states

    Florida
    Missouri
    New Hampshire
    Ohio

    Those four seem completely plausible, IMO. The only way Obama wins FL is if he succeeds in scaring seniors so badly about SS and Medicare that they vote for him in large numbers. The seniors I speak to here in IN who move to FL during the cold-weather general voting season aren’t buying his brand at the moment, so I’m skeptical.

    I think he loses NH and MO with little effort on Romney’s part. Winning OH will be a function of Romney’s hard work and getting a ground game rolling there because Obama has a deep-seeded ground game across the state…even in rural areas.

    • mikeymike143

      and seniors are obama’s weakest voting block.

      • snowshooze

        Romney still just a bit back in the RCP Polls.
        Hey, I forgot you were down there, Gingrich won the rural areas, and Romney won the urban areas… were you smothered like we were by Romney?
        My phone wouldn’t quit ringing, every radio station was the same…
        Then, nothing.
        I would think that our guy should be pulling a substantial lead.
        Well…polls are polls…

        • mikeymike143

          romney just polled too strong with seniors and had too much money and organization in place for us to compete.

          and just look at the 2010 elections, the same polls said the dems would be competitive down here. LOL. they got absolutely decimated. i think this state goes heavy republican and romney wins by 4 or 5 points.

  • acat

    found here can be used to play around with Pilgrim’s scenarios.

    Given the 2010 trend in Florida, I think they’ll go to Romney .. it’ll be interesting to see what happens in Wisconsin.

    I notice that Pilgrim doesn’t give Romney a chance there, although demographically, it’s similar to Michigan, and Gov. Walker has done the heavy lifting of splintering the unions.

    If Romney can keep the wedge going, splitting public-sector and private-sector unions, something that will help him in Michigan and Ohio and Pennsylvania as well, it will force the Dems onto defense on their home turf, depriving them of resources elsewhere.

    Nothing Romney can do will turn around Illinois, unfortunately.

    Mew

    • http://www.unifiedpatriots.com/ pilgrim

      I include Wisconsin as one of ten toss-up states, and even include Romney winning Wisconsin in two of my four scenarios. I definitely do not say that Romney has no chance of winning Wisconsin.

      • Dave_A

        WI might have it’s first ‘clean’ presidential election in my lifetime….

        The Supreme Court already ruled on this issue (Voter ID is OK as far as they see it) a few YEARS ago, but lower courts in Dem-friendly states seem to be ignoring that precedent…

      • acat

        Yes, you included Wisconsin as potentially going for Romney.

        I blame lack of coffee.

        Mew

  • ww2nd95

    I do think Romney will win FL, but I do not see him winning PA. That state may be unhappy with him, but overall I still think PA is a blue state that will be tough for Romney to win. I can see him winning WI too, but not Michigan. I think Snyder taking over Detroit is a bad move that will cause him some problems in the end for his own reelection, I honestly do not like any of what Rick Snyder is doing there, but that’s for another topic. I do also think Obama will take Ohio, but that’s going to be extremely close.

    I think this is going to be a very close election. I don’t know if it will be Gore/Bush all over again, but I think it could be that close. It’s either going to be very close or a blowout one way or the other, I don’t see any sort of moderate win here.

    • http://www.unifiedpatriots.com/ pilgrim

      If Romney wins the additional states of
      Florida
      Iowa
      the rural vote in Maine
      Missouri
      New Hampshire
      Wisconsin

      this adds up to 270 electoral votes.

      • ww2nd95

        Maine will be a tough one, but they seem to be moving more toward the right, but I still think it’s a stretch. However, if we’re going to steal any states from Obama, I think the NE is the best place for Romney to pull that off.

        • acat

          so what Pilgrim suggests is possible.

          I linked to Unlikely Voter’s tool earlier, it shows the splits.

          Mew

          • ww2nd95

            Well learn something new. Then what he is saying makes since. I can see Romney pulling some EC votes from Maine. Have a little more hope now, but I still am leaning toward a very close race, and we cannot get comfortable. I’ve seen more then a few posters and have heard people saying they believe we have this wrapped up, and I don’t think that could be further from the truth. And I realize that in least in part, some of those people are just trying to comfort themselves rather then come to reality and face the the fact that Obama could win another term.

            I just do not think we can afford to get comfortable until after November.

          • http://www.unifiedpatriots.com/ pilgrim

            !?

          • acat

            and the rotten urban cores get progressively worse as the Dems siphon as much money as they can to buy suburban voters.

            Mayor Daley was routinely criticized because most of the State political spend in Chicago, for instance, was in areas the suburbanite commuters could see and appreciate. Millennium Park, for instance. Renovations to the Loop and the United Center area, pushing out long-time poor in favor of yuppies…

            Mew

          • snowshooze

            I’m so exited.. I just can’t hide it…

          • acat

            but unless you see a *SERIOUS* way to replace him as the nominee, you need to give it up.

            Mew

          • snowshooze

            Whatever get’s the job done.

          • snowshooze

            Not the RHINO blog… and as Romney is really a Democrat from the People’s Republic of Massachusetts…
            Why are over half the Red-Staters kissing his butt?

          • commonsenseobserver

            nor Conservative, to make a laughingstock of your party. Good order is, after all, the foundation of all good things.

            And Romney is definitely not a Democrat, even if he’s on the left of the Republican party (which he’s not, at least not now…it appears…).

          • snowshooze

            I am a Member.
            Now you watch them and see who is making a ” Laughing Stock” of whom.
            I merely observe and comment.
            Funny, so many take it personal.
            Am I getting warm?
            Just look at this mess. I ain’t blind, and I ain’t bs’n meself.

          • krish

            make sure you mention that date & time for his position!! kidding!!

            you guys are so sensitive when somebody says something about Romney! take it easy….your guy won! take a deep breath! you do not need to have knee jerk reaction every time somebody points out Romney’s latest liberal position (last week was student loans) …

            To the conservatives in this blog (are you still here?)….do you have to point out every liberal position that Romney takes? How about a truce? Why not give him a mulligan….one liberal position a week? If he supports more than one, you can get on his case! That is around 25 liberal positions till elections…no big deal guys!

          • http://www.tooncesthecat.wordpress.com tooncesthecat

            to ignore everything Romney says between now and election, to hope that he says whatever it takes to win the election, and that he governs as a conservative after he wins. He can come out in favor of Roe v Wade as established precedent, as far as I’m concerned. It won’t change my vote or my opinion. Beat Obama, that’s all I care about at this point.

          • CincoSolas_del_Bronx

            Free Will is rather overrated–it might let you call, raise or fold, but normally frowns on your going through the deck after the deal.

          • snowshooze

            Rather shallow of them, actually.
            They were trying to curtail the primary 6 years ago… I think.

          • checkmate2012

            of funding just to set up polling places…so I heard on the street. One can only hope.

    • davenj1

      It is true Obama’s numbers are not great in the state. A lot depends on the Philadelphia suburbs (forget Philadelphia itself) in Bucks and Berks counties (even Delaware and maybe Chester counties). From everything I have heard and read out of those areas, Obama fooled them in 2008 but they are leery this time out. If Romney can make inroads here, he may pull off PA. That would create all sorts of scenarios. Also, I believe Romney will take NH, MO (not even close) and its looking more & more like FL. Ohio is the wild card.

  • Change Jar Conservative

    Colorado: 9
    Florida: 29
    Ohio: 18
    Missouri: 10

    as the first four states that would be added to your list above.

    That would put Romney at 275. That would require Romney to get between 50 and 51% of the vote.

    THEN the states after that to fall would be:

    Iowa
    New Hampshire

    THEN

    Pennsylvania
    Minnesota

    • http://www.unifiedpatriots.com/ pilgrim

      Including Colorado as part of the 205 Obama starts with instead of as a toss-up is different than what the political scientists are saying. Colorado GOP lost the US Senate and Governor contests in 2010 and Pennsylvania won those contests. That is how I see it.

      • http://www.nighttwister.com NightTwister

        There are other things in play here, and even though many are calling it a tossup, I believe that as of now it’s “leans Democrat”.

        • http://www.unifiedpatriots.com/ pilgrim

          It’s not wrong to hope that Colorado can change over the next five months and be in the GOP column for the electoral college vote.

          • http://www.nighttwister.com NightTwister

            Republican voter registrations are running significantly ahead of ones for the Democrats. On the other side, it looks like the “Personhood Amendment” will make it onto the ballot again. That has increased Democrat voter turnout every time, and I expect the same thing this cycle.

        • Remington_Steele

          Colorado now leans Democrat sadly. If only Boulder and the rest of deep blue Denver moved to the Bahamas.

          It’s nice to be in Colorado Springs where red is strong, but we can’t compete with the blue numbers to the north of us.

          • Remington_Steele

            Heck, it would be nice if they moved back to California.

          • http://www.nighttwister.com NightTwister

            *nt*

          • checkmate2012

            move here and want to re-create CA laws, banning everything they’re against but forgeting why they left their beloved poor state. Head back west please.

  • http://www.tooncesthecat.wordpress.com tooncesthecat

    Florida with it’s 29 electoral college votes is the key to all of your scenarios. It’s is difficult (but not impossible) to construct a winning scenario for either candidate which excludes Florida

    If Obama wins Florida, he would only need to win Pennsylvania and Michigan as well as the 205 base allocated to him to get to 270. With Florida in the bank, Obama would also have multiple pathways to 270 or more even if he loses either Pennsylvania or Michigan (but he must win at least one of those also).

    If Romney wins Florida, he could win Michigan, Missouri (likely) or Wisconsin, and Iowa or Nevada and get to 270. With Florida in the bank, Romney has multiple paths to victory even if he loses both Ohio and Pennsylvania.

    Prediction: Whoever wins Florida will win the election.

    Conclusion: Romney should choose either Jeb Bush or Marco Rubio as his running mate.

    I

    • http://www.unifiedpatriots.com/ pilgrim

      Obama can win Florida and lose to Romney if Obama is not able to win one of the Great Lake states (Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania). The VP pick alone is not going to matter that much. The key to victory will be for Romney to convince voters that he can be trusted more than Obama. I think Romney will win on the trust issue.

      • http://www.tooncesthecat.wordpress.com tooncesthecat

        but Romney would have to hold Ohio and Missouri and win at least one Great Lakes state–Pennsylvania, Michigan, or Wisconsin–that John Kerry won in 2008 and that no Republican has won since Reagan. Even then, Romney would have more work to do. Not impossible, but highly unlikely. Romney should, however, pursue a “Rust Belt” strategy in order to improve his chances should he lose Florida.

        • http://www.unifiedpatriots.com/ pilgrim

          In 1988 Bush won 5 of the 8 Great Lakes state on his way to routing Dukakis. In 2012 Obama starts with three Great Lake states (Minnesota, Illinois. New York). Romney starts with one Great Lake state (Indiana). The other four Great Lake states are part of the 10 toss-ups. I agree with you that Romney should be courting those states to improve his chances.

          • http://www.tooncesthecat.wordpress.com tooncesthecat

            If you’ll concede that Wisconsin should be included as a Great Lakes State and was carried by Dukakis.

            Also, as a note of caution, if Kerry had won either Florida or Ohio, he would have beaten W.

          • http://www.unifiedpatriots.com/ pilgrim

            Dukakis carried Wisconsin as well as Minnesota and New York. GHW Bush carried Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.

      • powertothepeople

        Romney will take Florida. All the signs point that way although they could change.

        But as to Wisconsin, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, these are going to be tough for Romney no matter how long he woos the states. Ohio will probably go for Romney as it has been hurt bad by Obama policy. Wisconsin will be close either way as will Pennsylvania. I think the big surprise this time around will be Michigan. I am almost ready to bet that state flips to the republican side. Since I moved from there in 2003, the state has been moving ever so steadily towards our side, it just may be ready to flip.

        I agree with my father on this election, I think all sides are going to be surprised at the one sided affair it becomes. He and I both feel that once our party settles down and gets back to the business of beating Obama instead of ourselves, polls are going to start favoring Romney greatly. It will not be a Reagan over Mondale massacre, but I think Romney will win and win big.

  • commonsenseobserver

    RCP has Minnesota, Oregon, New Jersey and Maine as leaning blue. But Romney needs to watch out in Arizona. It’s close to a toss up this time if we trust the polls this early.

    The problem with using swingometers is that the state level swing can never be uniform.

  • kaheo

    Will be the mainly contested states.

    I’m calling OH, FL for Romney. After which, he only needs to win 1 of the above states. Obama needs to win all 4!

    The easiest pick up for Romney is NH. The rest might be tough due to changing Demographics favoring Obama.

    My prediction, Romney wins NH thus: 272(R) to 266 (O).

    • Remington_Steele

      5 electoral votes, but I have a really hard time with the argument that Obama could win it.

      McCain lost it cause there was no reason to anchor the votes and Nevada was a battleground state then, but this time around there are two major factors for Romney:

      The Mormon vote and the economy is decimated. The LDS vote is not only a given, but it is the one general demographic that is very excited for a Romney candidacy.

      If you’ve had a chance to visit Las Vegas in the last year (hopefully not with the GSA), you would easily notice the many numerous skeletons of halted building projects. Nevadans are sick and tired of the Obama economy and Reid has done nothing to bolster it (aside from visits from the GSA).

      Trust me, Nevada is in the Romney corner this year barring any major mess ups on his part.

      • http://www.unifiedpatriots.com/ pilgrim

        I was hoping to read a post from someone familiar with Nevada. I put Nevada into the list of 10 toss-ups because there is a 20 year trend of Nevada voting for the Democrat nominee more than 50% of the time. I am thinking that in 2012 Missouri and Nevada are both going to vote GOP, but I am more confident with the 24 states I put as Romney’s base of 209 EVs that over 20 years have voted for the GOP nominee more than 50% of the time.

      • http://www.tooncesthecat.wordpress.com tooncesthecat

        Only a technicality, but it gives Romney another path to 270 even if he loses Ohio, but carries Florida.
        Base = 209
        Florida = 29
        Missouri = 10
        Wisconsin = 10
        Iowa = 6
        Nevada = 6

        Total 270

        Lose Wisconsin and win Colorado (9), Romney has 269

        It is much more likely that Romney will win Nevada and/or Colorado than that he will win New Mexico (Scenario 3)..

      • kaheo

        Mormon’s are 6% of the vote, and they reliably vote Republican. I’d watch more of the growing Hispanic vote 15% in 2008.

        I do agree that the foreclosures and the poor economy could however put Romney over the top.

    • http://www.tooncesthecat.wordpress.com tooncesthecat

      on pilgrim’s list to get the 209 base vote for Romney. Adding Ohio and Pennsylvania gets Romney to 256. Missouri, which pilgrim thinks will go Romney (and I agree) gets Romney to 266. Still one state short. One of the following (in order) is the most likely path to 270 or more: New Hampshire, Iowa, Nevada, or Colorado.

      I have no idea how you came to 272 electoral college votes for Romney without Virginia being included.

      So, pilgrim’s Scenario 1 is the most likely path to a Romney victory with everything else being gravy.

      • kaheo

        In turning VA for Obama. I suspect Obama will do a lot worse in Southern VA this time round, but Northern VA is turning blue really fast.

        For either Obama or Romney to win: Obama will need turnout to be same or better than 2008 levels, and Romney will need to spend some ad money across the state to make sure our turnout is good in the Southern parts.

        This is how I got 272 for Romney: He wins NH, FL, OH, CO, MO, IA but loses NV, NM, VA.

        As it looks it could end up being a really long night on Nov 6th and possible recounts in several states! It could get really ugly!

        • ww2nd95

          I think that’s going to go blue. I do think Romney will win NH and WI though.

          • kaheo

            WI has been extremely close in previous elections with the exception of 2008. However for us to claim WI in our column, we’d have to explain why 2008 was a blowout.

            Was there a shift of electorate towards the Democrat side or lack of enthusiasm? Obama got almost 200k votes above Kerry. McCain got more than 200k less than Bush in 2004.

            If it was lack of enthusiasm for McCain/Palin, and those 200k stayed home, I think it could be competitive this time round. If there has been a shift due to Union issues or other reasons, then it could be out of reach.

            I have no idea on how WI will go. I think we’ll just have to follow the polling closely.

            If Romney wins WI & NH and loses CO in my scenario, he still wins: 273-265!

  • Viet71

    Obama stumbles.

  • naraht

    Is between those that assume Obama holds all of the 2004 Kerry States, and those that don’t.

    The Kerry States in 2004 would now be worth 252 Electoral Votes, and I can’t see New Mexico (5) going Red. meaning that Obama needs 13 more Electoral votes,

    Of the ones that don’t keep all the Kerry States, by far the most likely to go Red is New Hampshire which makes the mathematics somewhat easier for Romney, since it would bump up what he needs to 17 electoral votes.

    If Romney, OTOH can take one or more of the Swing Great Lake States (PA, WI & MI), in addition to Ohio, then I don’t think there is any question, Romney has won. (I can’t see Florida going Blue if PA, WI or MI go Red).

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