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The continuing march of the bogus job numbers: unemployment claims drop to lowest since 2008

Just in time for tonight’s debate, let’s give Uncle Joe some talking points, even if he and the “knucklehead vote” are the only ones who believe them.  The weekly initial jobless claims dropped to 339,000, the lowest in four years.   ZeroHedge reports that, “ironically, not even the Labor Department is defending it: it said that “one large state didn’t report some quarterly figures.”

Jobless Claims and Revisions (courtesy ZeroHedge)

Last week, we had 25 broad-based economists who avidly follow the U-3 Unemployment Rate, predicting the U-3 coming in at 8% lowest.  Instead, we were given a pre-election rate of 7.8%, while the U-6 rate, which counts everyone unemployed, under-employed, discouraged/stopped looking, remained at 14.7%.  Jack Welch, roundly criticized for his viral tweet about the numbers, said in a recent Wall Street Journal article,

But I’m not sorry for the heated debate that ensued. I’m not the first person to question government numbers, and hopefully I won’t be the last. Take, for example, one of my chief critics in this go-round, Austan Goolsbee, former chairman of the Obama administration’s Council of Economic Advisers. Back in 2003, Mr. Goolsbee himself, commenting on a Bush-era unemployment figure, wrote in a New York Times op-ed: “the government has cooked the books.”

I worked and lived abroad for three years in Moscow, Russia, during the early ’90′s, just as the former Soviet Union was wrenching itself out of the 70+ year quagmire of Communism.  Through my experience, I worked with govt. representatives,  bankers, other expats, Russian business people trying out capitalism, everyday shop owners, etc. And what was the one prevalent underlying theme: no one trusted their government. The statistics merited laughter, the pronouncements met with shrugs, their newspapers, Pravda and Tass, were good for coffee grounds.   People were living and seeing the truth through their own daily lives.

So America, any of this starting to sound familiar?

 

Cross-posted at www.political-woman.com

 

 

COMMENTS

  • thesubprimecrime

    No doubt these numbers are cooked. I love the term statistical anomaly. I find most of the statistics i encounter anomalous.

    It’s similar to the polling horseshit. Just look at the % swings after the debate. Hell, 50 million people would have to be on the fence right now. We know that just aint’ so.

  • jamesm

    Dem skulduggery. How uncoincidental. Give the topline sound bite and then put a little disclaimer in the comments.

    • http://www.examiner.com/x-1597-Charlotte-Law--Politics-Examiner Mike gamecock DeVine

      But, even if the latest weekly UC claims numbers are true, 300,000+ is still a high number. Moreover, at some point, layoffs will slow because so many have already been laid off. One thing about these numbers that are superior to the BLS “surveys” is that these numbers are actual raw numbers of actual filed claims.

      • jamesm

        They weren’t and the jobless numbers are higher. California also has many statewide and district wide candidates and propositions that are going to be voted upon. Unemployment is higher then the national average and is an issue in California. If the Dems can influence numbers they will. California has a history of not getting their act together on UC claims. California can influence national numbers big time. Governor Brown is having a heck of a time with high gas prices. He just ordered the switch to “winter blend” gas three weeks early to drop the price. Count on everything being politcal until after the elections. Especially if there are Dems anywhere near. :)

        • http://www.examiner.com/x-1597-Charlotte-Law--Politics-Examiner Mike gamecock DeVine

          I know. I just want people to understand that even if we accept that the Obama numbers and even if the economy were finally emerging from the recession, that such developments would not justify an Obama re-election. We can never get back the lost years that Obama is responsible for.

  • Repair_Man_Jack

    Wow! I love that chart. Love it!

    • Repair_Man_Jack

      Kowalski -
      Henry Blodget confirms from DOL there are 15-25K CA claims omitted from the report.
      http://www.businessinsider.com/what-happened-with-jobless-claims-2012-10
      (HT: Baseball Crank)

      • jamesm

        Had to come from a Dem run state.

        • fredflintlock

          Thank you. Knew somebody who understands the process would out the offending state. Hopefully Ryan isn’t afraid to deploy this when Biden brings the numbers up.

  • http://hehasfailed.wordpress.com/ HopeHeFails

    Stunning, but not surprising.

  • fightnright

    How convenient for Obamites to keep throwing out varying and dubious
    claims figures that keep commentators focused on near-futile arguments
    of definitions and measuring methodology instead of the abysmal
    unemployment number itself, the part-time/no benefit labor market, the shuttered businesses on Main Street, and the skyrocketing costs of food
    and fuel.

  • greyeagle

    Came out the next day after Obama’s fiasco. Of course it was cooked.

  • http://libertynews.com/ mbecker908

    How can this be? Erick just told us that the numbers weren’t cooked. What’s up?

    Of course he also assured us that the pollsters and the media weren’t cribbing the polls by stacking the D/R/I splits too.

    Nice to see somebody on the front page with a shred of intelligence on the matter of numbers and reporting.

  • gunnyg2002

    Dems cooking the books here just like Franklin Raines and Jamie Gorelick cooked the books at Fannie and Freddie, in order to tke their multi-million dollar bonuses and to Hell with the aftermath.

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