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Impersonating SE-779: MN Race Breakdowns

By: qsclues (Diary)  |  January 31st, 2010 at 05:35 PM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

Having enjoyed SE-779’s breakdowns of various state races, I figured I’d contribute with my own analysis of my home state of Minnesota.

Governor: Incumbent Republican Governor Tim Pawlenty is not running for re-election. Oddly, despite the fact that Minnesota has not voted Republican in a Presidential race since 1972 (yes, we even voted for Mondale in 1984, though probably mostly out of pity), Minnesota has also not had a Democratic Governor since Rudy Perpich was defeated in 1990. This year is probably the best chance for Democrats to change that. The Democrat nomination will likely come down to former U.S. Senator Mark Dayton and current Minneapolis mayor R.T. Rybak. The main Republican contenders are House Minority Leader Marty Seifert, State Senator David Hann, former Rep. Bill Haas and current Rep. Tom Emmer. Former U.S. Senator Norm Coleman has declined to run. I admittedly know little about any of the Republicans, but I do know that Democratic favorite Dayton didn’t fare well as a Senator, causing him to not run for a second term in 2006, and the people may remember that. I also recall that no one knew who Tim Pawlenty was before he won in 2002, but his Democratic challengers were not as well-known. This prediction is subject to change, but: DEM GAIN, certainty factor 4/10.

Senate: Neither of the reliable liberal votes – Amy Klobuchar or Acting Senator Al Fraudken – are up for re-election this year. Pity.

MN-01: Incumbent Democrat Tim Walz is running for re-election, and has no primary challengers. This is a seat Republicans are targeting, but no strong contenders have yet emerged. Current Republican contenders include Rep. Randy Demmer, longtime congressional aide Jim Hagedorn, military veteran Frank McKinzie, and former gubernatorial candidate Allen Quist. The national GOP seems unimpressed with this lot, as they have hoped to recruit either State Senator Julie Rosen or former Rep. Brad Finstad, but neither has joined the race as of yet. Walz won by a comfortable margin (30 points) in this southern Minnesota rural district two years ago (which Obama won 51-47), but the voter registration is R+1 and supported Bush in 2000 and 2004. Walz voted against ObamaCare in November, but for the most part has voted with Pelosi on everything else. This will be a closer race than in 2008, but Walz is fairly popular and the Republican field is not strong. Prediction: DEM HOLD, certainty factor 7/10.

MN-02: Incumbent Republican John Kline is running for re-election, and has no primary challengers. Democrat contenders include former state Rep. Shelley Madore and salesman Dan Powers. Madore will win the primary, but brings nothing to the table in this conservative district. As I live in both Kline’s district as well as Madore’s former state district, I know of what I speak here. :-) Prediction: GOP HOLD, certainty factor 10/10.

MN-03: Incumbent Republican Erik Paulsen is running for re-election, and has no primary challengers. Democrat challengers include physician Maureen Hackett and PTA president Jim Meffert-Nelson. Neither challenger poses any reason for Paulsen to worry. Prediction: GOP HOLD, certainty factor 10/10.

MN-04: Incumbent Democrat Betty McCollum is running for re-election, and has no primary challengers. No Republicans have announced for this race. Prediction: DEM HOLD, certainty factor 10/10.

MN-05: Incumbent Democrat Keith Ellison is running for re-election, and has no primary challengers. No Republicans have announced for this race. Ellison has had some ethics issues, but with no serious opposition should still breeze through, thus illustrating a lot about what is wrong with our political system today. Prediction: DEM HOLD, certainty factor 10/10.

MN-06: This is clearly the main event. Incumbent Republican Michele Bachmann is running for re-election. Attorney Chris Johnston is challenging her in the primary, but is no threat. Democrat contenders include State Sen. Tarryl Clark and former U of MN regent Maureen Reed. Clark is the likely primary winner. Nancy Pelosi has made it clear that Bachmann is the top target for Democrats this year, and clearly wants very badly to see the conservative Bachmann gone. Bachmann has had three close races in 2004-2008 against fairly weak challengers, but she is becoming increasingly popular both locally and nationally. Sorry, Ms. Speaker, but Michele Bachmann isn’t going anywhere. Prediction: GOP HOLD, certainty factor 8/10.

MN-07: Incumbent Democrat Collin Peterson is running for re-election, and has no primary challengers. Republican challengers include 2008 nominee Lee Byberg and accountant Glen Menze. This is a safe Democratic district. Prediction: DEM HOLD, certainty factor 10/10.

MN-08: Incumbent Democrat James Oberstar is running for re-election, and has no primary challengers. Construction executive Michael Cummins is the only announced Republican. This is a safe Democratic district in the northern part of the state. Prediction: DEM HOLD, certainty factor 10/10.

SE-779: How’d I do? :-)

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  • http://conservativestateproject.blogspot.com/ SE-779

    Only 2 I have to disagree on are MN-GOV and MN-01. In MN-GOV, I see a Ryback vs Seifert race, and in this climate, that will be a tossup til’ the finish. In MN-01, I wouldn’t put it past Demmer to upend Walz, albeit narrowly. Other than that, I agree with the analysis.

    • eburke

      Do you have any info on Demmer? Haven’t gotten anything from him and had decided to go w/Hagedorn but am not exactly turning handsprings over him.

      And I agree w/your assessment of CD-1. This is a purplish red district and Walz is a socialist who has managed to paint himself as a moderate mostly because he’s pro-gun and there’s about a zillion hunters down here. That and Brian Davis was right on all the issues last time but ran just a horrible campaign.

      It didn’t help that the NRA endorsed Walz last time. His opponent was just as pro-gun but sometimes the NRA can’t see past the nose on the end of their face. Doesn’t do a lot of good to have a ‘pro-gun’ guy who then caucuses w/the anti-gun nuts and votes to impose Marxist/socialistic policies. Being an NRA member, I sent a rather pithy letter to them expressing that point and informing them that an endorsement again this year would cost them my membership. I’m not going to have my donations and dues going to support political mailings supporting a guy who’s a leftist socialist trying to destroy all the things that the 2nd Ammendment is designed to protect.

      • http://conservativestateproject.blogspot.com/ SE-779

        Other than when he lost the Caucuses in 2008, I knew the GOP was doomed.

        • varia

          will it be done in a series by multiple people since there’s 53 CD’s?

          I’d imagine it’d be tedious to do alone.

          • scarlos

            Since they’re all essentially “Mind-numbingly Democratic holds”

            The State was Incumbent-Gerrymandered in 2001, so there are very few actually competitive races. I’d say the only ones to watch are CA-3, CA-11, CA-18, CA-20, and CA-47.

          • varia

            seeing as I live in the 39th I have SOME optimism for defeating the more progressive Sanchez

            So far the only candidate I know of is Larry Andre . I still need to research the race but that’s what I know so far.

            After all, wasn’t MA a “mind-numbingly Dem Hold”?

            Also, <a href=http://www.ballotpedia.org/wiki/index.php/California_Proposition_11_(2008)Prop 11 reapportions the redistricting power to a “bipartisan panel”

          • scarlos

            As of right now, I don’t see us winning any of the districts above. Unless we recruit an incredible candidate who can run against a terrible Democract like in MA, I don’t see us being competitive.

            Naturally, this could change alot in the coming months, but for now none of these races should be aggressively targeted.

            Though you’re right in that the 39th has potential, as it’s the least Democratic out of all the Los Angeles ones and sports Linda Sanchez, who I think has officially the most Liberal Voting record out of any Congressman in the country.

            Also, the Prop 11 commissions don’t actually take place until the 2010 census, so they won’t really affect the 2010 elections. Come 2012 however, we’ll probably be able to pick off 2-3 in East LA once we undo the Gerrymander (though a few of our own will become much bigger targets)

          • varia

            Remember that Joseph Cao has a D+25 district in LA-02…granted it was mostly because of the indicted incumbent, but if MA and LA-02 show anything, it’s that people don’t ALWAYS vote for the clump of atoms with the (D) next to it just because it’s a (D).

            She is WAY too liberal for our district , 100% NARAL/PP , 95% Liberal…and on and on. If the (R) nominee gets the message out well, then this certainly could be a potential target. I would think it’d be more of the job of the locals to get the message out through grassroots rather than the national party, as it should be.

            Right, but what I meant to add was that this is the last time we fight with these boudaries so we should make the most of it. Next time, it may be a little easier but we could make it that much more easier to defend if we have a good incumbent (R). Rather than being on the offense, we are defending the seat. We need every seat we can to take back the House with enough of a Margin of RINO.

    • proudgop

      I wish more posters would give us updates on their home states

      I am concerned about Gov mansion in MN. It seems highly likely the GOP may pick up all Gov mansion surrounding it ( WI, IA, MI, OH) and I fear if we lose Gov mansion whats dems will do redistricting wise to Bachmann.

      If we are going to take back house we will need to win back seats like MN 1. Waltz is a liberal he must go down.

      On Peterson I thought that is a very Republican seat? McCain won that district I believe? Peterson has never faced a tough challenger but he should.

      • morstar150

        If you have information on the congressional races or 2010 state races tag them with 2010 tag. It makes them easier to follow. I will be reporting on the 2010 elections in Florida and have posted twice in the last couple of days. Thanks for the heads up! I also hope that others will start reporting on their own states.

        • qsclues

          Thanks for the heads-up.

          • http://vbushmills.blogtownhall.com/ vassar

            Mr Bushmills wrote me to say that I should comment on this diary, as being what needs to be developed in every state this year.

            Your format is perfect, he says.

            And cheers

            St George

          • qsclues

            I thank you for the compliment. Although it is only fair to note that I copied SE-779′s format for the most part, except that I added my own “certainty factor”. Since this seems to have attracted a fair number of recommendations, I’ll update this on a monthly basis.

          • redpens

            You all are lucky to have her in Minnesota. Next time Acting Senator Fraudken is up for election(since he really didn’t win), make it a blowout win for the Republican

    • qsclues

      On MN-1: This used to be my home district, and I still have family there. Walz isn’t a carer politician; he was a high school teacher before 2006, when he beat Gil Gutknecht, who got caught up in the Abramoff scandal. Two of my cousins even had Walz as a teacher. He’s considered likable enough, just rather liberal. I agree that *a* Republican can beat him, but I’m not sure any of *these* Republicans can. As noted, Walz did win by 30 points in 2008, and voted agsinst ObamaCare.

      On MN-Gov: I agree that if Rybak wins the nomination, it’s a tossup. I just think Dayton is the favorite due to his name recognition and his wealth. If that name recognition and wealth are enough to overcome his useless term as a U.S. Senator and whatever his Republican challenger brings to the table remain to be seen. My prediction is based largely on the fact that I know little about these candidates, as I pay much more attention to national politics than state politics.

      I do hope we see some serious challengers in other races, especially against Ellison.

  • Brian Hibbert

    We should ALWAYS have a candidate on the ballot. In every race from dog catcher to President. Everywhere.

    The candidates don’t alway need to have money thrown at them and don’t always need to be expected to win, but really…. if we don’t have someone on the ballot we can’t pick up the seat no matter how bad the Democrat is.

    What would the Republicans do if Ellison or McCollum were arrested for something serious? If there’s no one to oppose them, they still get the seat by default.

    P.S. Great job qsclues.

    • proudgop

      LOL Ellison could be arrested any day and it wouldn’t shock me

      I am more disgusted as why MN GOP does not challenge Colin Peterson who represents Republican district and won seat with only 49% in hist 1st race and has since been given a free ride

      He voted for Obamacare and stimulus bill too

      • http://beaglescout.wordpress.com Beaglescout

        People volunteer to be candidates. The GOP can support or not support, but the party doesn’t run. Those seats need people to volunteer to fill them, and after Brown I’m surprised that nobody has stepped up?

        • Brian Hibbert

          Yes, candidates are volunteers, but volunteers can be recruited. There should be a local GOP chairman (or many) who are located in the 2 districts without a Republican on the ballot. It’s their JOB to recruit candidates. And if they can’t find anyone who thinks they can win, they can get someone on the ballot without spending money on campaigning just to make sure the slot is filled.

          I understand that it’s not smart to spend many resources in areas that are heavily Democrat, but it doesn’t cost much of anything to collect a few signatures.

          Empty ballot slots are something that irritates me….

          Come on! These are US House seats! Why are we just GIVING the seats to the lefties??!!!

    • MNConservative

      http://www.barbdaviswhiteforcongress.com/

  • andybates

    In Peterson’s House district? Any Republicans? Ii spent some time across the river from Peterson’s district. While that district isn’t the most Republican in the midwest, I would guess Nancy Pelosi and Barney Frank’s favorability in that district is in the single digits-low teens. I wonder if Peterson’s constituents know he enables the likes of them?

  • lukematthews

    Sorry, but I will have to question some of your handicapping, mostly due to the conservative resurgent factor as well as the depressed socialist damper.

    Most likely Marty Seifert will get the GOP nomination for governor and in this bankrupt climate, he will, by his wit and steadiness, win. That will completely change the climate in both the First and Seventh Districts. He will have significant coattails for those two, very rural and very conservative districts. Demmer, also my second cousin, is a rock-ribbed conservative, and should get the Republican nomination.

    Peterson got punked on Crap and Tax and he is backpedaling as fast as his little feet will allow him. He’s also vulnerable due to the metrics of the district and the rage over the outlandish spending. Seifert is going to drag the Republican into office.

    Kline, Paulson and Bachmann will be safe. The conservative surge will protect them from the DFL. However, McCollum is not as safe as she should be. St. Paul, and especially its inner ring suburbs, are very independent and not nearly as kneejerk as Minneapolis DFLers. She will probably squeak it out, but they will have to pull resources from the First and Seventh to do it.
    Barb Davis White is going to make a respectable, though losing run against Ellison. But, once again, the DFL will need to actually work in the Fifth, something they haven’t had to do in a long time.

    Oberstar is another who will be more challenged than recently. That will also drain the DFL resources.

    All these races are also going to be driven by the state representative and senator races as well. They are all up for reelection and it isn’t going to be all sunshine and lollipops for the DFL.

    I think we keep the governorship and pick up two seats for the Republicans.

  • http://itsaboutfreedom.proboards.com/index.cgi IronDioPriest

    …. Tom Emmer, for governor on Tuesday. He’s a sharp guy, likable, and conservative.

    Can’t say enough good things about Michele Bachmann. I am very honored to be represented by such a fine conservative woman.

  • eburke

    would be interested in your take on Emmer. While I’ve heard from several of the candidates I haven’t heard anything on Emmer.

    Currently I’m torn between Seifert’s fairly solid conservative record but superior name recognition and fundraising and Hann who touches all the bases as far as I’m concerned but I was less impressed with his campaign literature and his website is fairly bland and generic.

    So…give me the low-down on Emmer and why you chose him over Seifert and Hann.

    Oh, and btw…considering that I’m stuck with Tim Walz (S – D1) and you have Michelle, I’m jealous. Not only is she golden on the issues, she’s a lot easier on the eyes than Timmy Boy.

  • MNConservative

    I’ve even got a button. :-)

    He’s a conservative’s conservative. Authored the Firearms Freedom Act H.F. 2376, among other things.

    Democrats say he’s a “firebrand”, but the fact is, when he talks, he connects with people. He’s able to communicate the conservative message, which is exactly what we need.

  • http://itsaboutfreedom.proboards.com/index.cgi IronDioPriest

    He’s got tremendous grassroots support. He’s a Tea partier’s dream candidate. Came from the private sector just a few short years ago. Strong family surname recognition. He’s an articulate and personable speaker. He’s fiscally and socially conservative – every bit as much as Michele Bachmann, and his way of communicating these ideals is confident, and attractive – not at all threatening, and not at all fitting into the “out of the mainstream” caricatures that the Left puts conservatives into, especially here in MN.

    I think he can win the primary, and I think he could peel off enough kneejerk Dems in the Iron Range, which spells victory.

  • eburke

    his appeal up in the Iron Range?

  • eburke

    Sold!!

  • http://itsaboutfreedom.proboards.com/index.cgi IronDioPriest

    …is just my opinion based on my perception of the man. The Iron range is filled with people who have been voting Democrat forever, but they are not liberal Democrats by any stretch of the imagination. It’s more of a tradition and a cultural norm than an ideological predisposition.

    Tom comes across very sharp – but in a very regular, roll-up-your-sleeves-and-believe-it kind of way. He’s smooth but not urbane. I think regular Joes will relate to him, and the Iron Range is very blue collar as you know.

    It’s that “authenticity” thing. Convincing people you’re aa regular person without looking like you’re trying – because you’re not trying, it’s just who you are. Voters are gravitating towards people like that, and Emmer is the best in the bunch.

    If he were to win the governorship, I would look for a Presidential run at some point in the future. That’s how much I think of Tom Emmer.

    And just to be clear, I am not involved in his campaign, other than caucusing for him tonight. He’s represented my state district very well, and very conservatively, and I appreciate the heck out of him.

  • andybates

    Peterson’s district is “conservative”. Not quite in the Gene Taylor-Bart Gordon GOP leaning territory, but close to it. Peterson had to make 3 tries at this seat before winning in ’92 and had 50-49 races in his first 2 re-elections. This is the type of seat the party should be hanging Nancy Pelosi’s collar on the incumbent, but apparently no one is stepping up to the challenge?

  • proudgop

    Peterson won the seat only because Republican had some ethics problems

    that seat is +5 Republican; no Democrat in Republican district should get free ride

  • eburke

    of the Iron Range, if Tom is what you say he is (and I have no reason to doubt you), that would be a huge plus up there.

    My only question would be his campaign organization. Having heard from all of the ‘upper-tier’ candidates, I haven’t gotten anything from him yet. Does he have the organization and the smack to compete in this thing?

  • eburke

    I’ve been wrestling w/this for a few weeks now and it’s been good to get the perspective of you and Iron.

    Which CD did you say you were in? Bachmann’s?

  • http://itsaboutfreedom.proboards.com/index.cgi IronDioPriest

    I get stuff from him all the time – but I’m in his district and on his list. I am unfamiliar with the inner workings or scope of his political organization.

  • MNConservative

    Kline’s district. We’re very proud of him, too. :-)

  • eburke