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Obama Got Fewer Votes than Kerry in Ohio

Myth of Groundswell of Support for Obama

By: quill67 (Diary)  |  November 6th, 2008 at 09:25 PM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

CNN has a report showing only either no or only 1/2% increase. Also:

OHIO

Ohio’s population has risen and the number of registered voters this year is 211,000 higher than in 2004.

Obama received 2,708,988 votes in Ohio this year. Bush got 2,859,764 votes. Kerry got 2,741,165. Yes, Obama got FEWER votes than Kerry in Ohio!!

Pennsylvania

Total voter turnout in PA in 2004 was 5,731,942. Voter turnout in 2008? 5,768,926. That is a difference of around 37,000 votes.

In PA, there was an increase in votes for Obama. Obama got 3,192,316 votes. Kerry received 2,938,095 votes. That is an increase of 254,211 votes.

It seems what we had was not a broad based ground-swell of support for Obama, but rather, African-Americans being very (understandably) excited about the prospects for an African-American President.

African-Americans make up 10.7% of the population in PA so about 1,038,294 of the state’s voting age population. An increase in this group’s voter participation from 50% to 75% (assuming 90% for Kerry in 2004, 95% for Obama) generates around 272,000 more votes.

Obama did better percent-wise around the state only because McCain did not bring out the Bush voters. McCain got 209,728 fewer votes than Bush.

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  • LAWizard

    Was it the Christian right? Suburban voters? Perhaps it was people unhappy with Bush and then believed Obama’s lie that McCain = Bush.

    Fascinating stuff. Good job.

  • quill67

    That is a really good question.

    I suspect it was the Christian right. McCain, while a pro-life supporter, never really connected with the Christian right or conservatives for that matter and seemed to view each of these groups with disdain.

    • onimpulse

      After $700 million, you’d think that Obama would manage to get more people out to vote..

  • NoKoolAidForMe

    Obama’s friends in the media depressed our side so much into thinking that voting was pointless. Also take into consideration the fact that McCain was such a drag on the ticket, hardly any ground game got started. A good lesson to be learned for 2012 when the Obama shine will have worn off considerably. No more Doles or McCains. Let’s choose someone young, exciting, and conservative. Our fate is in our own hands in 4 years. That thought makes me sleep more pleasantly tonight.

    • bs

      Their analysis of exit polling data actually shows a three percentage point increase in self-proclaimed evangelicals this year as opposed to 2004.

    • mom2oneson

      I also noticed conservative Christian women in their 20s and 30s like to send pro-life emails, they love SP and like send how evil is Obama fowards.
      I don’t think many actually vote though. I hear n-o-t-h-i-n-g about the lines to vote, trying to vote with kids, the early voting lines, no emails on how to request a mail in ballot and things like that. If they actually voted they would certainly be talking about it.