ALERT: Is Drudge Giving False Exit Poll Data???? (Update(2): Results Conflict with Drudge.Why I was Suspicious)

By: quill67 (Diary) | March 13th, 2012 at 06:37 PM |

RESIZE: AAA

UPDATE(2): Santorum has won both Alabama and Mississippi—contrary to Drudge Report’s Exit Polls that showed Romney walking away with both states.

Why I am Suspicious: I am an impatient person. I want to know results NOW. So on election days I have searched for exit poll data to give clues how the race is going. In every race to date, the only exit poll data that was available on Drudge (or elsewhere) was general information about what issues were important, etc. BUT NEVER actual race projections..UNTIL TONIGHT. I believe could have been an attempt by Drudge to surpress conservative voter turnout (I do not blame CBS, polls sometimes are wrong) But it is strange that the results of these exit polls was released.

Drudge is reporting exit polls that suggest Romney walking away with both Alabama and Mississippi. HOWEVER….

These exit polls indicate a big night for Santorum then Gingrich…..We will see what the truth is in a few hours. But

DO NOT LET DRUDGE REPORT KEEP YOU FROM VOTING. THERE IS A STRONG REASON (AS SHOWN BY EXIT POLLS BELOW) TO BELIEVE THESE REPORTS ARE WRONG AND IN FACT, THE EXACT OPPOSITE OF THE ACTUAL RESULTS.

Exit Poll Mania, Southern Style

Exit polling data is trickling in from Alabama and Mississippi, and it is showing just about what everyone expected: white, evangelical turnout is dominating the scene. Here are some numbers from CNN:

In Mississippi, the voter ID breakdown is 80/17/4 (R/I/D). Among those 80% of Republicans, Santorum leads 34%-31% for both Gingrich and Romney.
In Alabama, the ID breakdown is 66/28/6 (R/I/D).
More than 40% of voters in MS self-identify as “very conservative”
81% of voters in MS and 73% in AL are evangelical.
Voters in both states say the ability to defeat Obama is the most important quality in a candidate.

Update: In AL, 41% said they were ‘very conservative’. Those voters went 41% for Santorum, 36% to Gingrich, and 19% to Romney.

COMMENTS

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Ender

exit polls show Romney is ahead in MS, but it’s a tie between Romney and Santorum in AL. Drudge has results of his website online voting right below real exit polls, so it’s misleading. All in all, misleading stuff from Drudge.

Nevertheless I am excited that it looks like Romney will win MS, but it’s still early.

quill67

Just curious.

Ender

Policy differences have been made up during this primary fight and are transient. I do not believe a lot of it from any candidates because they are just trying to appeal to voters. I care about Romney’s business background, understanding of economy, and pragmatism..
clintonformccain

1) He has demonstrated the abilty to field a national campaign with oppo research, advertising, etc.

2) He has demonstrated the fundraising ability for a national campaign.

3) He takes it seriously enough to bother getting on the ballots in all the states.

——————-

Pretty basic stuff actually. Blocking and tackling. It’s a pretty stunning indictment of the other candidates that none of them are able to manage even the most fundamental stuff.

rabun1016

Right on all points. I think he has an awful campaign manager though based on how pathetic his commercials are.

Scope

According to this article there are thunderstorms in those states. Not sure why thunderstorms keep people home from voting, but I guess they are made of salt. I’d say that the weather has less to do with the primaries this year, as in most every region/section that Romney has won in all seem to be reporting low voter turnout.

Ender

everyone saying how there is no way Romney can possibly win or come close in MS and AL… Just a week or two ago. Now it’s going to be thunderstorms or suppressed turnout.

jamesm

and that probably will hold true. Rick/Newt splitting conservatives is hurting.
jamesm

and Romney wins Mississippi

lapert

Interestingly enough for all those Newt supporters – if the exit polls are accurate you can blame his losses in these two Southern states on his gap with women voters – in both states he has slight leads among men.

jamesm

he lost. Newt needs to exit if this holds up.
demsaresatanic

nt
lapert

Yo are right I should know, since I am capable of finding exit poll data on the internet and reading it – you on the other hand, I guess we are still waiting to find out what it is exactly you are capable of knowing.
demsaresatanic

are in.
rankandfileconservative

And, more specifically, religious, evangelical women, who clearly are voting to avenge long past sins, for which he has fully repented. It always amazes me that those who cling to Christianity closest often have the toughest time with the most Christian of acts–forgiveness….it’s unfortunate and sad, in my opinion.
lineholder

That is a really, REALLY broad brush you got there. In case you haven’t noticed, we have not one but TWO posts in the Recommended Diaries list for today written by someone here at RS…a female…a Christian…from Alabama…supporting Newt.

She isn’t the only one, BTW.

You’ve painted Christian females as being vengeful and malicious. Why?

Care to rephrase your above statements???
rankandfileconservative

However, I did not say that about all Christian females. However, how do you explain a 10 point gap between Gingrich’s male and female support? Which political issues would account for the gap? Please explain it to me so I can understand how a candidate would end up with this kind of gap in a Republican primary.

On another note, I am Christian myself, and I know a lot of Christian women. Several of the Christian women I know have made the point to me that they could never vote for Newt for prescisely this reason, and I strongly suspect that this sentiment accounts for at least SOME of his problem here.

And I stand by my statement on forgiveness, which applies to men and women alike. God bless the women you mention who support Gingrich, however it seems that there are disproportionately more who feel otherwise.
lineholder

that it was due to a desire for vengeance and that it was malicious. That may not be the truth at all. They may simply be using various elements of Newt’s character in the past and projecting on the current situation, which I can understand. I may not agree with it, but I can understand it.

As to forgiveness…when it comes to his personal life, Newt didn’t sin against me. It isn’t for me to pick up someone else’s past errors in judgments in how they’ve lived their private life and carry it as something against them when the sins that may have been committed didn’t involve me in any way, shape, form or fashion. In other words, I don’t see that Newt needs my forgiveness for what has transpired in his personal life.

I can’t answer for other people.

I just don’t like the broad brush strokes and the message that came along with it, that’s all.
rankandfileconservative

of ejecting the most articulate & conservative candidate (who can win) from the race. And it appears, based on the exits, that conservative women are the responsible demographic. I guess we can agree that we have a difference in opinion on the reason for the gender gap.
lineholder

That’s exactly what it looks like. I’m not any happier about it than you are, if that’s any consolation. But neither am I going to read things into that I don’t know to be true for a fact.

I happen to believe that Newt is the man we are in need of in the difficulties our nation is facing. However, if that is not to be, it has occurred to me more than once that Newt may still yet have a role to play in this election season…a role that could generate enthusiasm for all freedom-loving Americans and help us out with downticket races in Nov. He’d be exceptionally well-suited for it, too.

We’ll just have to see how things go.
demsaresatanic

and less on policy matters. I saw a post here yesterday talking about how women would support Romney because Mrs. Romney is so nice.
lineholder

Are you saying that females aren’t capable of being interested in, much less to make rational decisions, based on the logical and reason in evaluating public policy issues?

Men, obviously. And my guess would be men who aren’t around Conservative females very much at that.
demsaresatanic

they are driven by emotional strawman arguments; I did not even remotely say what you claim.
lineholder

.
aesthete

/bad joke

In all seriousness, it has nothing to do with gender — both genders are rationally ignorant of most public policy, and rely on signals or indicators when it comes to politics. It makes sense that the particular negative signal of a man with three failed marriages is going to affect women more on an emotional level than men, just as a man who exudes confidence and discipline, like Allen West in FL, is more likely to connect with men on an emotional level than women.

As far as I know, there’s been no conclusive evidence linking women with more “emotional” thinking, though I have seen “pop science” features trying to make this connection. Markets populated or supplied by women seem no more or less rational than markets with a higher proportion of males.
lineholder

As hard as it may be for some men to understand, it’s the whole idea that women are hare-brained, emotive-driven, objects-to-a-serve-purpose (especially where sex is concerned) who need sugar-daddy-big-government to ride in a white horse and save us from those terrible, awful religious beliefs that don’t always let us get instant-gratification of every sexual desire that we ever experience (and that also might contribute to being independent thinkers, building strong moral character, etc.) that Conservative females are having to fight against right now.

It’s a mixed bag of (pick your animal) feces, and the left keeps trying to drag ALL females down into it.

Conservatives females in particular have made a point of becoming more educated about policy issues, especially in the last three years. Truth being told, aesthete, we’re just getting to a point of really beginning to hold our own against the females on the left.

We have to hold a line somewhere. And we’d rather you gentleman on our end of the political spectrum back us up, when you can.
http://www.gmsplace.com/ civil truth

.
Scope

I thought it was the liberals that tried desperately to wage a gender war, hell that’s all over the place these days, but, now you want to cry about a gender war between conservatives? Don’t you guys belong on the Huff Po, WashPo, or the NYSlimes. Looking at one of the exit poll reportings in one of the southern states tonight, the vote was 50% women, and 50% men. I’d say you both have an agenda, and your agenda is not conservative or pretty.
rankandfileconservative

sorry we aren’t on board with your boy. Guess buying out the evangelical leadership’s endorsement doesn’t “do it” for all of us. I’m sure Rick has done something very important in politics over the past 20 years, I’m just not sure exactly what.
lineholder

how strongly females in general and Conservative females in particular have been attacked lately with all this recent “female parts” blather that’s been taking place on the left. Plus, when you add the religion element into it as well…

The thing is…we aren’t much inclined to tolerate coming from the left. Why in the world would we tolerate it coming from men who claim to be on our own side, politically speaking????
Scope

but is fitting with these guys- I’m going to try to spell this, Chauvanists. Doesn’t matter how I spell it, it’s still true.
lineholder

entire conversation started, I’d be making a hypocrite of myself in a major way if I read more into their comments and make snap judgments about it to go so far as to label them as being “chauvinists”, LOL.

I’m usually more inclined to be as polite as I can be in how I respond. But even for me, my patience with things like this has just worn really thin.
rankandfileconservative

anyone who looks at the data (both statistical and anecdotal) and then comes to a plausible conclusion based on logic and reason is “pathetic,” “a chauvinist,” and belongs on HuffPost and other liberal posting sites, Scope? Again, my point was that the long past personal sins were a big reason for women’s disproportionate vote against Newt; this is _not_ an indictment of all conservative women, as many showed (present company included) that they were not affected by his past personal problems, in voting for him. However, it is a plausible explanation for the difference in voting between men and women (essentially, we are talking about ~ 5% or fewer of the women who voted in each primary).

Here is the exit polling data once again for you two:

Alabama 2012 GOP primary:

Gingrich: Men 34%, Women 25%
Santorum: Men 31%, Women 38%

Mississippi 2012 GOP primary:

Gingrich: Men 34%, Women 29%
Santorum: Men 31%, Women 35%

I have expressed my opinion, now please give us your explanation for the discrepancy, with supporting anecdotes. Bonus points if you can refrain from namecalling and smearing those who disagree with you. Also, I’m still waiting for that list of accomplishments and qualities that make Santorum a much better candidate than Newt. Haven’t seen it yet, and I don’t expect to as it doesn’t exist. Then again, this isn’t the first time we have chosen to nominate a candidate who is not (nearly) the most qualified for the job, and I suspect it won’t be the last.
demsaresatanic

when they are insisting that they are not emotional. I still love the difference; the gender gap in favor of liberalism merely makes it a little more difficult.

jamesm

Guess Romney won’t win Alabama. He better win Mississippi. Oh no He is behind right now. Start praying.

jamesm

Mississippi because Santorum/Gingrich are splitting the Not Romney vote. Close race in Alabama with Rick having a slight edge over Mitt.

jamesm

Intrade now betting that Santorum will win Mississippi alsp

Ender

nt
lapert

To be fair to the exit polls – based on the current results they are well within an acceptable margin of error. On the other hand, the few pre-election polls we had here aren’t looking to good (at least on Santorum’s numbers) which actually seems to be fairly common in these states for some reason.

elayman

It is tight according to the last exit poll update I saw from CNN.

Mitt 33 Rick 31 Newt 30.
rabun1016

No way Newt leaves.
Scope

just said that Romney wasn’t ever expecting to in the two states tonight. LOL He said that Romney will get a third of the delegates, and that was there goal. LOL Anderson Cooper just asked him why/how Romney said just this morning that Santorum’s campaign was on it’s death bed. Just hearing that Romney won’t be speaking tonight. LOL

Time for Newt to exist stage left, right, front, or center.

lapert

At least about the delegates. With Hawaii and American Samoa Romney is going to increase his delegate lead tonight and remain on tack to get a majority on the first vote.

Santorum needs to do more than win close races in these proportional primaries – he needs to dominate (as would Gingrich if he were to be any sort of factor at all) and he didn’t do that today. In that sense, they are on their death bed, they haven’t increased their ability to win the nomination tonight and really need a strong win (at least in delegates) in Illinois next week to keep that small path open.

acat

for a Presidential nominee…

Illinois isn’t voting for a governor or senator this time, and neither Gingrich nor Santorum have much money to do ad buys in the Chicago market… things could, of course, be different in Springfield or St. Louis…

My guess is Illinois gets a Romney win. Not because I want it to be, but because Romney does very well in areas that traditionally vote Dem .. and there’s no way Illinois doesn’t go for Obama in November.

Mew

lapert

Don’t think it is likely at all, just necessary.

acat

That the goal in a “delegate strategy” is to win enough early contests to gain credibility, then coast until the winner-take-all contests start?

Y’know what, never mind. You’re too giddy to do serious analysis today.

Mew

Scope

but that doesn’t matter. You are just so depressed and angry at Santorum’s wins you can’t think straight.

acat

I’m angry and depressed .. because you’re a fool.

Mew

redmymind

My, furballs, that’s a lot of power Scope has over you. Lighten up there, tux! No need to get all mean and personal with Scope. I thought you were better than that. I normally enjoy your analytical thoughts–even if mistaken at times–but this sucks.
acat

but there’s a lot of Scopes and Rombots out there voting for a candidate who cannot win.. ignoring or dismissing general election problems with their candidate(s) .. and throwing away the opportunity for real conservative reforms – both fiscal and social – because they seem unable to think.

Mew
lapert

This is kind of ridiculous, it may really be the case that Santorum can’t win the general election and that Romney has a narrow window but if you honestly think Newt Gingrich has a better chance at winning the election than Romney and a significantly different chance than Santorum you aren’t really thinking here. It isn’t coincidence that he polls the worst of the three in head to head matchups with Obama (whether those are indicative of final outcomes certainly can be argued but to ignore the relative performance is baseless), he has the worst unfavorables broadly and is already fairly well known – he isn’t likely to change that much between now and November.

If there ever was an opportunity to run someone who could achieve real conservative reforms that wasn’t thrown away by Rick and Mitt supporters, that was lost months ago when any serious candidate either didn’t run at all or ran momentarily without much effort before walking away.
acat

You’re still looking at head-to-head polls that will change significantly once we have a ticket. Happens every time.

I’m looking at Gingrich as the best able – given his record and his proven skills – to run a big-tent outreach campaign in the general.

Santorum has already started pushing away voters who supported Bush and McCain … Romney can’t “close the deal” … but both poll above Gingrich? This tells me people aren’t paying attention or learning from history… and that we’re going to hand Obama a victory.

Mew
lapert

I agree with the sentiment that Obama can lose – but that doesn’t mean that he needs to come equally as far down to lose to each of the three.

Of course the head to head polls will chance – but to ignore the relative performance and insist it disappears is just putting your head in the sand. It would be one thing if we were talking about relatively unknown candidates (like if by some odd quirk it was Cain or Perry in this position) but with Gingrich that is n’t the case. I think you are either giving Newt way too much credit on what he can achieve in a campaign (heck he couldn’t even do that in the primaries in the South when it needed to extend to a much smaller tent). And I think you are completely ignoring his negatives – to most of America he didn’t come out of the 90′s looking like the winner and the things he may have done after that to ingratiate himself to the broader electorate he now calls mistakes.
acat

negatives that are driving the head-to-head are, right now, focusing on the primary issues .. not the general election.

Voters have their heads up their {third point of contact} and, as a result, are not seriously evaluating “Would I vote for {GOP} or would I vote for Obama?” .. they’re answering based much more on “I like {candidate} in the primary so no, I don’t think {other candidate} can beat Obama”.

I keep hearing about “Gingrich’s negatives” or “Gingrich’s baggage”, but .. in the general election, against Obama, is his lifestyle going to matter to the squishy middle who will decide this thing?

Mew
lapert

I think that is a fair point for people voting in or paying attention to the republican primary – but I don’t think that is true of most people who will vote in the fall (it might not even be a true description of most republicans who will vote in the fall given recent turnout numbers). If it were, would Romney and Santorum’s numbers really be so close and just Gingrich and Paul consistently off by ~10 points?

As for his baggage, it isn’t about his lifestyle it is about the perception of him from when he was in the national limelight. He is remembered for his role in the 90s and it isn’t fondly. He will be campaigning against the Clinton’s as much as Obama and frankly I don’t think he can win that battle this time either.
acat

To your first point, I don’t expect those who are “zealous” about their candidate now to be answering entirely honestly…. and I don’t think any of their current numbers have any real staying power… this has been quite a roller-coaster.

Mew
lapert

That is exactly the question Newt would probably ask – and that is what will make it him versus the Clintons and today the Clintons are lightyears more popular among the voters we need to convince than Newt. I also don’t think the country wants to rehash those arguments and I think running someone who is immersed in them is a poor choice. I actually think one of the key storylines since ’04 is the country moving past the baby boomer generations fights – and seeing two old baby boomers rehashing theirs from last century does not seem to me to be a winning proposition and makes Obama coast to victory.

The question needs to be are you better off now than before Obama – anything else and we are distracting from the issues we win on.
garfieldjl

Gingrich’s baggage has the highest chance actually calling attention to Obama’s baggage.

Plus Gingrich is very good at turning tables on the media on live TV.
redmymind

I appreciate your sense of conviction. I don’t agree as far as your assessment of Santorum, but that’s okay. Have a good day!

Wuff!
acat

I think Santorum is superior to Obama .. I just don’t see how he can get elected. Nominated? Sure. Elected’s another story.

Mew
redmymind

Just a thought . . . or a sentiment. Take care, my friend!
acat

I liked him because he had good executive experience, a compelling narrative, and was well vetted. He would have done just fine in the general, in my opinion. (and no, my opinion isn’t humble)

I don’t know where Romney stands on anything, and I don’t trust him to stay where he tells me he is, so .. not supporting him.

I do know where Santorum stands .. his record (not just votes) convince me he wants to push values issues that don’t – by themselves – win general elections… without having any real fiscal record to stand on, and while pandering to unions. Just .. no.

That leaves me with a choice of Gingrich or Ron Paul…. and while I’m quite convinced both men would upset the D.C. apple cart, kick some long-entrenched hogs out of their troughs, and turn some sacred cows into hamburger .. I think Gingrich would leave the country intact. Oh, and he’s got a good record on values issues too.

Mew
garfieldjl

The only problem is can Gingrich restrain himself from turning Biden into a pile of goo in the VP debate.
acat

They don’t seem to be even close to a “good” fit .. but who knows?

I will say that Gingrich/Santorum makes more sense than Santorum/Gingrich … the only possible reason for Gingrich to make the latter deal is if he really is in this for some reason other than to sell books, eh?

Mew
garfieldjl

It could also be that Santorum would have to take up Newt’s policies on a lot of things, and that Newt can put the breaks on Santorum whenever he gets off base.

The two have similar political views in some areas and different ones in others.

They have different personalities, but that can be a strength if they are able to work together, and they have in the past.

Newt in a sweater would probably remind me of a Grandfather actually.
cbartlett

Agree 100% with everything you’ve said above. Newt is the only one that can “teach conservatism” and expain to voters in the general why they need real conservative ideas to fix the damage Obama has done to the country. Rick and Mitt cannot “teach” anything. Rick is too busy explaining to the sheeple why social issues matter (they don’t) and Mitt is too busy feeding his desire to get elected to the White House. Neither of them has what it takes to actually accomplish any real change. If either of them get the nomination, we’ll end up just trying to bash Obama enough to get him out – there will be zero enthusiasm for the R candidate because no one really believes they can do anything except, hopefully, slow the horrible ride that Obama has put us on.
Scope

is mutual. You want Santorum’s “wheelhouse issue” to be condoms, but apparently the voters don’t agree. I didn’t notice Trojan on any ballots. Your anger and loathing for Santorum, and those that support him, out of a bad field, hasn’t done much to sway probably anyone to your side of the argument, especially with your method of arguing. Oh, and, while Ron Paul is still alive and breathing, Johnson will never be a factor in any race despite the threats and warnings.
texastaxpayer

Do you really think the paulbots are gonma vote Santorum or Romney? I don’t either..
garfieldjl

Is going to try to force the distraction issues and hide the real issues. Santorum isn’t as good at calling the media out.

If Gingrich and Santorum were on the same ticket, Obama would be in serious trouble.

Only problem is Gingrich is better able at driving Team Obama up a wall and getting them to lose it on live TV than Santorum.

RS

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ALERT: Is Drudge Giving False Exit Poll Data???? (Update(2): Results Conflict with Drudge.Why I was Suspicious)

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