Democrat electoral woes continue in Northern Virginia


Ever since the election of Barack Obama, a strange thing has happened.. Democrats have started losing elections and losing ground rapidly.

In Georgia, they lost around 5% between November and December for the Senate.

In Louisiana, they lost an open House seat as the heavily favored Democrat lost narrowly. Another Democrat, Bill Jefferson, also lost in a shocking upset.

In Delaware in a special election in a heavily Democrat district, the Republican won.

And in Virginia in a special election for Brian Moran’s 46th district (a heavily Democrat district in Alexandria), the Democrat <a href=”https://www.voterinfo.sbe.virginia.gov/election/DATA/2008/CE21C97C-418A-4AC5-BE85-246497CE595F/Unofficial/8_s.shtml”>leads by 16 votes</a>. In yet another district where Obama won over 2/3rds of all votes, the voters are swinging away from Democrats.

This bodes very well for 2009 and 2010. There’s no doubt that the Republicans will win both Virginia and New Jersey once the natural anti-Obama base vote aligns with voters disgusted over the far-left Democrat agenda and the lack of economic recovery. And in 2010, we will win back the House and Senate. The fact is that the Democrat agenda places a higher importance in paying off anti-democratic far left forces like gay marriage advocates and unions than on jobs. The Obama stimulus plan doesn’t create a single permanent job, but it creates many jobs that would be dominated by the labor unions that support Obama. Obama’s plan is not based on capitalism and will fail.
And when the failure of Obamaism is obvious, America will return to the small-government pro-individual philosophy that built America and made it great. I can’t help but be confident right now. A lot of Americans who stayed home on November 4th must be regretting the fact that they didn’t vote for John McCain. Because it’s obvious that there is an anti-Democrat backlash brewing all over America. We’re going to win in 2010.


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Let's hope your right about winning back the House and Senate

AceInTX (Diary) Wednesday, January 14th at 1:01AM EST (link)

The “Big Tent” analogy isn’t the correct one…the correct one is a MAGNET…we need to be a MAGNET that draws these independents in who are sick and tired of what’s going on in WashingtonFred Thompson

The Senate Is a Bridge Too Far

IJB Wednesday, January 14th at 1:18AM EST (link)

Especially now with Republican retirements, the GOP goal should be something modest – gaining 2-4 seats, with the focus being on retaking the Senate in 2012.

The House, OTOH, is theoretically doable, provided there is a sizable anti-Obama, anti-Dem wave, a la 1994.

We shouldn't count chickens before they're hatched....

AceInTX (Diary) Wednesday, January 14th at 1:29AM EST (link)

but we shouldn’t rule out the Senate either…we won 7 seats in the Senate in 1994 after Slick Willy’s bungling as I recall off the top of my head…and we can do so again!

seven seats wouldn’t win the Senate but it’d sure enough pucker up ole Harry’s carp whole wouldn’t it?

The “Big Tent” analogy isn’t the correct one…the correct one is a MAGNET…we need to be a MAGNET that draws these independents in who are sick and tired of what’s going on in WashingtonFred Thompson

In Fact...

IJB Wednesday, January 14th at 1:43AM EST (link)

…Between 1992 and 1994, the GOP gained a total of *11* Senate seats.

But the thing is, all but two of those pick-ups came from open seats, IIRC.

Defeating incumbent Senators, even in ‘wave’ years, is extremely difficult.

It’s possible to take out ‘baby chick’ office holders like, back in the day, Wofford of PA, or current people like Burris, and whoever replace Biden and Clinton.

But defeating entrenched incumbent Senators is extremely tough. Even in a very anti-Dem year, it would be tough to take out more than 2 or 3 Dem incumbents.

So, unless there’s a sudden wave of Dem retirements (unlikely), retaking the Senate is very, very unlikely in 2010, as scarlos points out below.

As it is, we’re going to have to waste time and resources defending *our* open Senate seats…

Incumbents vs. Open seats

scarlos (Diary) Wednesday, January 14th at 1:55AM EST (link)

IJB is right in the chances are MUCH more likely that we’ll win open seats rather than the seats of sitting senators. However, large anti-democrat pulses in the country tend to make Senators retire earlier than expected, especially if their poll numbers begin to slip.

Incumbents however, are not untouchable, as South Dakota proved 4 years ago by ousting Democratic floor leader Tom Daschle.

On a good note though, freshman senators are still relatively easy to defeat, and the Dems have 8 up for election in 2012 in swing states that are winnable.

Socialism is Oligarchy in disguise

I'm not disputing anything either of you said...

AceInTX (Diary) Wednesday, January 14th at 2:45AM EST (link)

I just don’t want to repeat the mistakes of Cole and Ensign in declaring things a lost cause and sitting back waiting for the hammer to fall…I’ve had enough of that!

The “Big Tent” analogy isn’t the correct one…the correct one is a MAGNET…we need to be a MAGNET that draws these independents in who are sick and tired of what’s going on in WashingtonFred Thompson

RedState is the Tip of the Spear

OccamsRazor (Diary) Wednesday, January 14th at 3:16AM EST (link)

The Rest is GroundSwell.

Amen to that

AceInTX (Diary) Wednesday, January 14th at 11:41AM EST (link)

Things are starting out fo the big 0 pretty much as they did for Little Willie in 1992 so we could well see Republicans run the table again in 2010…If we can stop the wholesale surrender by the squishes that is currently going on…

more later on that!

Let us pray for a 1994 style landslide in 2010…

The “Big Tent” analogy isn’t the correct one…the correct one is a MAGNET…we need to be a MAGNET that draws these independents in who are sick and tired of what’s going on in WashingtonFred Thompson
 
 
 
 
 
 

We'll make progress in the Senate

RC (Diary) Wednesday, January 14th at 1:44AM EST (link)

I think that Colorado is winnable. We might be able to do surprisingly well in Delaware, especially with an anti-Obama mood. Then we could pick up seats in Wisconsin, Washington, and Nevada. Which would reduce the margin to 53-47.

As for the open seats. A combination of a strong Republican year and good candidates should be very helpful. We’ll definitely win Kansas, I think Sebelius is incredibly overrated by the media blockheads. We’ll win Missouri with someone who is a solid conservative like Sam Graves. We can win Ohio with a guy like Rob Portman who’ll be strong in Southwest Ohio. And statewide Florida Dems don’t have much to brag about outside of re-electing Bill Nelson. We’ll beat them in Florida.

Heck, we might even pick up Illinois if the primary is so divisive that backers of the losing candidate refuse to support the Democrat. I don’t think Clinton’s seat is off the map until we know who is appointed. If it’s a dynasty pick, then that seat is also on the table.

And Dems in Republican states may be more vulnerable than we’d think. But a big part of the progress is the attitude that we’ll win.

 
 
 

Senate's probably not likely until 2012

scarlos (Diary) Wednesday, January 14th at 1:31AM EST (link)

It’s definitely possible to win back the house, as many of the Democrats recent gains can be reversed. The Senate on the other hand is rather unlikely. Assuming Norm Coleman remains seated, we need to win 9 Senate seats, out of the 16 that are up. Certain senators like Patrick Leahy are unlikely to be beaten in any event simply due to the partisan nature of their constituents and their longevity, so winning that many is rather improbable. I’d say it’s possible to take seats in Arkansas, Wisconsin, Washington, Nevada (which would be a huge symbolic blow), Colorado, and Illinois (which would be a bigger symbolic blow). Connecticut could be in play as well if Chris Dodd’s role in the Obama “stimulus” plan blows up in his face and possibly Hawaii if Daniel Inouye retires. That’s at most 8 seats, and would wind up with a 50-50 tie which would be broken by Biden’s tiebreaker vote

Retaking the Senate will most likely take place in 2012, as seats in Montana, Nebraska, Missouri, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Minnesota and Wisconsin are easily within reach, and add to whatever we come out of 2010 with.

But in order for this to happen we need to unify as an opposition. We need another person like Newt to rally the county’s discontent with the Policies of the President and transform that into election results. Being a presidential election year as well, this would presumably be the GOP nominee, and alot therefore rides on who gets the nod next time.

Socialism is Oligarchy in disguise

 

Tax Bailout

OccamsRazor (Diary) Wednesday, January 14th at 2:04AM EST (link)

‘It’s about the Economy stupid’.

I recollect a tale about Clinton running reelection for Gov. and failed. He immediately called his father and questioned, ‘Dad, but I promised roads and infrastructure…and I delivered’. While in office, he ended up taxing the public of AK so much so, that yes, although the pledge of a public servant was filled, the consituents were unhappy. Clinton’s father answered, ‘Son, the voters don’t care about your roads, your infrastructure. They just care about getting up every morning with food and going fishin”.

I sincerely believe this drove Clinton’s thinking. And it was encapsulated by, ‘It’s about the Economy, stupid’.

There’s truth to that, in as horrible and twisted as it may be.

Obama has a timeline to turn this over. Either Axelrod is supremely confident that this thing can be turned around in two years, that they play the martyr card now to set relative expectations low early and end up gleaming or they are going to miscalculate and will ultimately feel the wrath of the American voter, and their impatience. I tend towards the latter.

I, for one, am not rooting for our financial fallout for the next two years. But I must admit, with regards to this Adminsitration-elect, I’ll have Schadenfreude running up and down my leg if it happens.

 

Sorry to be a wet blanket but GOP is nowhere near taking back any of congress

kyle8 (Diary) Wednesday, January 14th at 7:04AM EST (link)

And will not be for a long time. The only way the stupid party is going to get back in power is after a massive failure by the Democrats.

They will now control the patronage, they will control the media and message like never before, They will rewrite the election laws and gerrymander. You can write off all the states in the Southwest after the massive immigrant amnesty.

It will take a major economic crises to unseat them.

Then even if that happens you have to wonder if the new GOP elected officials won’t just morph into democrats the way the last bunch did.

“Nothing works like freedom, Nothing succeeds like liberty”
Kyle

 

"Morph into Democrats"?

peg_c (Diary) Wednesday, January 14th at 7:45AM EST (link)

McCain for all intents and purposes IS a Democrat and a whole boatload of us voted for him.

I agree this will require a major crisis – as it unfortunately always does to get Republicans in power. But we conservatives have ceded the party to Dem Lites and big surprise, real Dems are running the country.

And I no longer have faith that whatever party is governing, we won’t be in the same mess. The mediocre personalities in politics for the power far outweigh the true public servants as exemplified by Palin, Jindal, DeMint, Coburn, etc. Politics now attracts exactly the mental and moral mediocrities that we DON’T need running things.

Government cannot be the solution when government is the problem.