Will the Stupak coalition fall for the Obama/Pelosi/Reid double cross?
Not too long ago, when I first heard the possible deal in the works about a seperate bill that Steny Hoyer was floating, I thought this was a hoodwink effort to get the Stupak coalition of votes of which if Pelosi doesn’t get those, Obamacare’s demise is certain. If Pelosi does get those, likely all eyes will be on Baron Hill and Brad Ellsworth of Indiana most notably. Ellsworth is making a run for Senate and knows that if he votes yea on this, he is finished. Baron Hill knows he is as well. Both live in GOP friendly districts.
Think about it here. Obama and the Democratic leadership want the health care issue out of the public eye as soon as possible. They can do this simply by passing the Senate bill and then moving on hoping that at least some Americans will forget about the government takeover of healthcare. The hoped for results would be that Democrats could somehow minimize the substantial losses they are looking at in the 2010 mid-term elections. The longer this drags on, it gets worse every day. The GOP of course would love to have this remain in the public eye until the mid-terms. They will keep the talk up about Obamacare whether talking about starting over (code speak for killing the bill) or repealing.
Obama/Pelosi/Reid are basing their hopes on what amounts to an all-in bid to get this passed by banking on Stupak’s naivity. To think that a seperate bill striking the abortion funding language from the Senate bill will pass and be signed by Obama is crazy. You honestly think that the Senate Democrats are going to alter their bill? Progressives in the House and Senate will start hollering and Pelosi will just tell Stupak and his fellow congressmen that she has hung “Sorry, I tried.” She will then turn and walk away with a smile on her face. Most of the Blue Dog caucus will then disappear from the Democratic party in November. This is probably Pelosi’s intention all along. Obama, Pelosi, and Reid are all about their own ambition and having something to hang their hat on. No matter how many fellow Democratic congressman’s careers might be ruined, it is all about them.
Jay Cost this morning called for moderate Democrats to stand up to Obama and in essence hope to preserve their careers and caucus. Stupak has already seen what happens to politicians when they sell out their principles (i.e. Judas Ben Nelson). If he and his coalition vote yea for them, most if not all will likely lose their seats this coming November. The GOP is likely to make far greater gains in Congress if Obamacare is passed than if it fails. One thing that I see this morning from the Cost article/blog that is hopeful is that there is a growing number of congressmen who voted for Obamacare last time that are now undecided. It has grown to 16 congressmen. It could be that more are now leaning no or they do not want the public to know how they are going to vote until it is too late. The only way to kill this thing is to keep up the phone calls. The GOP is helping by making robocalls to vulnerable Dem congressman districts and this is having an impact on those congressmen up for re-election. Maximum pressure should be the rule.
So long as the Stupak Coalition, Baron Hill, and Brad Ellsworth have the heat on them by your calls, there is a good chance they will stay hesitant and might want to go home and hear from the constituents over the Easter recess. Obama, Pelosi, and Reid are terrified about this happening as it would likely sink Obamacare for good. Let’s kill this thing.