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(UPDATE: CBO Score out — $940 B UPDATE 2: Obama has cancelled (postponed Asia Trip)) Morning whip count update and looking at Democratic strategy.

Help from Ace and the Hill

A few surprising developments since I slept.  Tough to sleep when you’re in a war.  From the way I see things, I am cautiously optimistic but really I think nothing can be taken for granted.  Heath Shuler says he is now undecided.  He caught a whole lot of hell from his constituents back at the August recess and his comments toward Obamacare have been overall very negative.  He was one of I believe 10-12 congressmen who President Obama summoned for a meeting recently.  I believe Obama and Pelosi are looking for votes very hard to offset the pro-life Democrats which look to neighbor in the number of 10+.  Sanford Bishop of Georgia who was thought to be a definite yes going into this thing is now undecided as well as his fellow Georgia Democratic colleague John Barrow.  There are people who have been calling Lincoln Davis’ office and are reporting that staffers in Davis’ office are telling them that Davis is a no vote.  Smart, as he is in a R+14 district I believe.  I have to ask myself.  What kind of idiot southern Democratic congressmen would go for this abominable government healthcare takeover?  I cannot imagine what people down there would do nor do I want to.  People who live in those congressmen’s districts better bring the heat from here on out because Obama and Pelosi sure are. 

The media hasn’t run with Davis’ staffers saying he is a NO vote and its obvious why.  They are trying to help Pelosi with creating phantom momentum (I like Ace’s term fauxmentum) and trick undecided Democratic congressmen into the yes camp.  The media was announcing with trumpets the NO to YEA vote of ultra-lib Dennis Kucinich,  James Oberstar of MN and Dale Kildee of Michigan.  The last two they were trying to create the impression that the Stupak bloc is crumbling.  However, observations in looking at the actions of Obama and Pelosi suggest that they have been desperately trying to peel off pro-life Democrats and lobbying hard no votes.  Pelosi, though leadership has denied this, has been having meetings with female only Democratic congressmen and trying to broker some deal with Stupak in regards to abortion.  However, she has no leeway here.  Stupak will not accept a side-car or fix bill.  He knows the only way to solve this would start back from square one and then he would be able to get the language he wants.  There is no abortion deal that Pelosi can come up with that would currently solve the abortion problem.  Steve Driehaus and Jerry Costello firmed up their no votes yesterday (believed to be part of the pro-life coalition) even after they had likely been pushed to vote yea with a visit from Joe Biden according to local papers and The National Review.  I have to give it up to those congressmen.  It takes some strong men to do that. 

The excuses and statements coming from Democratic leadership regarding the CBO score are laughable.  I highlighted this yesterday in this post.  They are trying like crazy to create a reconciliation bill that 1) reduces the deficit.  2 ) adds on a student loan takeover program (could push more House Democrats into the no column, particularly Paul Kanjorski) 3) comes up with a cost number that they hope will attract congressional and public support. 

The problem here is that Joe Barton informed us yesterday that the CBO score yesterday came in at over $1 trillion.  The Democratic leadership had the score but they didn’t like it so it was back to the drawing board.  Obama summoned Richard Trumkin, a leader of the AFL-CIO obviously to get union concessions which would be in the form of higher and more immediate taxes on union Cadillac health plans.  So, Obama wants every American to sacrifice for his own selfish ambition now.  His interview with Bret Beier yesterday revealed a combative, seriously angry president.  He didn’t look happy at all. 

I highlighted the next probable tactic of Pelosi here yesterday.  Once the CBO score comes out, expect her to schedule a vote even though she will likely not have to votes.  This will be a bluff to get undecided Democratic congressmen into the yes column.  If that happens, check here what to do.  Obama and Pelosi are playing a very high stakes game of poker here.  It is up to us to create insurmountable strength in the opposition’s hand so any bluff they try to pull can be called any time. 

Here is the list of congressmen who I think deserve maximum heat and attention from callers. 

Jason Altmire (PA-4), Brian Baird (WA-3), John Barrow (GA-12), John Boccieri (OH-16), Rick Boucher (VA-9), Allen Boyd (FL-2), Travis Childers (MS-1), Lincoln Davis (TN-4), Betsy Markey (CO-4), Jim Matheson (UT-2), Scott Murphy (NY-20), Glenn Nye (VA-2), Heath Shuler (NC-11), John Tanner (TN-8 ), Harry Teague (NM-2). Suzanne Kosmas (FL-24), Henry Cuellar (TX-28), Tom Perriello (VA-5),  John Barrow (GA-1), Sanford Bishop (GA-2), Tim Bishop (NY-1), Gabrielle Giffords (AZ-8 ), Baron Hill (IN-9), Paul Kanjorski (PA-11), Alan Mollohan (WV-1), Solomon Ortiz (TX-27), Bill Owens (NY-23), Tom Perriello (VA-5), Earl Pomeroy (ND-All), Nick Rahall (WV-3), Zack Space (OH-18 ), Kathy Dahlkemper (PA-3), and Brad Ellsworth (IN-8 ).

I think Space might be a lost cause but he is in a R+7 district.  I thought about putting Marcy Kaptur (OH-9) but she has stated that though she has a strong pro-life rating, it won’t determine to be the primary reason for her vote. 

Go out there and drop the hammer down today on your congressmen.

UPDATE:  MSNBC is reporting a senior aide says the CBO will score the bill at $940 billion and will save $100B for the first decade (yeah right).  Steny Hoyer is saying that the House is on track to vote on Sunday.  Democratic spinmeisters are now expressing fake confidence that the bill will pass trying to depress the opposition.  Pelosi is likely going to do just like I thought she would as previously mentioned.  Apparently, Richard Traumka of the AFL CIO is now going to shop a concession package to the members as it looks like Obama needs union concessions to try to get this through.  Now blow up the phones and demand whether your congressmen will be voting yes or no.  Pay particular attention to the target list I made above. 

COMMENTS

  • Mary Beth
  • proudgop

    http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2010/03/18/source-cbo-estimates-health-care-bill-at-940-billion/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed:+rss/cnn_politicalticker+(Blog:+Political+Ticker)&fbid=ZhBrgoiaJ1P

    940 billion price tag

    • RealQuiet

      Just wondering. This equals exploding deficits through the roof.

      • http://www.marklaiminger.org Lammo

        Their number is only accurate to the extent that any of the given assumptions come true (even if they are not even remotely possible).

        Reminds me of an old joke:

        An engineer, a chemist and an economist are stranded on an island, with nothing to eat. A can of soup washes ashore. The engineer says, “I csn use these rocks and branches to make a lever to pry the can open.” The chemist says, “I can use these plants and minerals to make a compound that will eat a hole in the lid.” The economist says, “Assume a can-opener.”

  • RealQuiet

    n/t

  • RealQuiet

    Heh.

    • http://beaglescout.wordpress.com Beaglescout

      I love it!

    • Mary Beth

      Per Congressman Ryan:

      ” The Congressional Budget Office has confirmed that there is currently no official cost estimate. Yet House Democrats are touting to the press ? and spinning for partisan gain ? numbers that have not been released and are impossible to confirm. Rep. James Clyburn stated he was ?giddy? about these unsubstantiated numbers. This is the latest outrageous exploitation by the Majority ? in this case abusing the confidentiality of the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office ? to pass their massive health care overhaul at any cost.”

      http://hotair.com/archives/2010/03/18/whats-taking-the-cbo-so-long-for-its-analysis/

      • RealQuiet

        Excuse me while I go to the bathroom because I’m about to wet my pants from laughing.

        • Mary Beth

          Anyone who believes they’re legit needs to take a look at this great investment strategy forwarded to me by a Nigerian businessman.

      • eburke

        I’m…I’m…I’m…just speechless.

  • mavericktime

    March 18, 2010

    Insiders Expect Health Care Bill to Pass
    The latest National Journal Political Insiders Poll finds that on a scale of 0 to 10 — with zero being no chance at all — the average score Democratic insiders gave for chances of the health care bill passing was 7.9 and for GOP insiders was 6.5.

    Read more: http://politicalwire.com/archives/2010/03/18/insiders_expect_health_care_bill_to_pass.html#ixzz0iXS6JXR1

    • APA Guy

      Blue Dogs have been looking for a reason to back this thing. The CBO just gave them political cover to spare.

      • RealQuiet

        Once the reconciliation bill becomes public knowledge, the GOP will air out everything for the public to see.

        • APA Guy

          Three Blue Dogs in my state have confirmed they will vote for the bill – with two of them being on the fence before this hit the wire.

          Not saying it’s time to concede, but this makes the job twice as difficult.

          • penguin2

            What a thought. Maybe you are discouraged or pessimistic. But giving in to a sense of “inevitability” is what they want you to do. It is smoke and mirrors, gamesmanship, distortion, lies, etc. all designed to get the opposition to cut and run. Goodness, that is no way to win, if you do not stand and fight. If this does not go our way, I have no intention or just letting them get away with it. We draw up new battle plans, new strategies…

            Read Mary Beth’s comment above, I believe Rep. Ryan before I believe the weasels from the other side.

            http://www.redstate.com/realquiet/2010/03/18/morning-whip-count-update-and-looking-at-democratic-strategy/#comment-304

          • proudgop

            http://corner.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MjJiMjFkYjQyMTY4NmMyNDllYzZjNDAxNjVkOWE1ODQ=

            There is no official cost by CBO the numbers today were simply Hoyer using press

          • eburke

            did any of them vote ‘no’ the first time.

            If they voted yes, SanFranNan ain’t one bit closer to getting this thing passed then she was a year ago.

    • eburke

      I’m sure if you were at the battle of Bastogne, you would have expended your energy going around telling all the besieged troops how many tanks the Germans had brought up and vastly outnumbered they were.

      ‘Cause *that* always helps morale

  • RealQuiet

    H/T Hedgehog Report

    http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2010/03/rules_panel_dem.php

    • eburke

      Gotta peel off another ‘no’ to a ‘yes’ now.

      Keep fighting! Keep screaming! Keep melting the phones!

      Oh…and become a Precinct Committeman so that we don’t ever have to go through this agony and anxiety again.

      • RealQuiet

        Obama going on Fox News to turn things around? Rush Limbaugh said this morning that the National Council of LaRaza came out against the bill this morning. Uhoh, Pelosi has to worry about the Hispanic caucus now. This thing might be teetering and could go down. Keep up the pressure.

  • RealQuiet

    Per Philip Klein at American Spectator. Sheesh!! Talk about a balloon payment exploding in your lap.

  • eburke

    I’ve about had it with people who swoon and panic over every well-timed leak proffered by the lying, crapweasel Dem leadership and then parroted and trumpeted by the sycophantic LSM.

    Get a grip on yourself, folks. You sit here day after day and bitch about what biased, lying sacks of manure the MSM is and then you suck in every molecule of BS that they send your way.

    There *only* hope is to create an aura of inevitability so that they can go to 10 different wavering Dems and say “you don’t want to be *the* vote that kills health care”. They’re trying to divide and conquer cause they know that if they can’t get this down to being just a couple of votes away, they’ll lose by 25 ’cause the rats will leave the ship.

    It’s one thing to be realistic and realize we’re going to have to scream as loud as all of the Dem goons and thugs that are snapping body parts on these people but this unending litany of ‘the sky is falling’ does nothing but sap morale.

    Get a grip, people.