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(BIG UPDATE: WINNER TAKES ALL) We are winning this fight! — Updated target list.

By: RealQuiet (Diary)  |  March 19th, 2010 at 10:05 AM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

I have felt like this has been all tactics from Pelosi :)   However, it is from Dick Morris so I take it with a grain of salt.  However, this looks solid.

Via Dick Morris:

From a top level source in the House comes the news that the Democrats are still short of the 216 votes they need to pass Obamacare. They have decided, however, to go for broke on Sunday and attempt to pass it whether or not they have enough support. They feel that only by forcing a vote can the force members off the fence. They hope that by employing all means at their disposal, they can round up enough votes for passage. But, if they don’t have the votes, they will allow the measure to be defeated. One source called it a “suicide run.”

This will determine the survival of our country and everything it stands for.  Live free or die. 

(H/T Hedgehog Report, Ace)

Democratic leadership are saying this morning they are six votes short of passage on Obamacare.  See?  Pelosi has been full of it saying she’s 2, 4 votes short.  The Democrats know that the window of opportunity is shrinking fast.  If they can’t get a bill passed by the Easter recess, the bill is DEAD for the time being.  Don’t get depressed by all these pundits and nagative nancies who minds are deluded by how things usually repetitiously play out in Washington.   This battle is completely unique.   Especially don’t fall for the compliant Associated Press BS. 

According to Ace, Lincoln Davis and Harry Teague they will announce today that they are going to vote no on the legislation.  Their staffers have been telling their constituents this.  So chalk up two more no votes there.  John Bocierri will likely vote yes today.  It would be a huge boon if he votes no but I think he is going to take one for Pelosi.  House leadership has been leaning on him HARD.  He’ll likely be voted out of office in November as his district is an R+4 district. 

The Seattle Times came out and encouraged congressmen to vote NO on Obamacare.  Wow.  This might put a little bit of heat on Brian Baird.  The Seattle Times certainly by any stretch is not a conservative publication.  Many media outlets and pundits have been loud in their objection of Pelosi using the Slaughter Solution.  They see what could happen if Pelosi decides to go that route.  It will ensure GOP majorties in the House for the rest of the decade or two. 

Target List:

Jason Altmire (PA-4), Brian Baird (WA-3), John Barrow (GA-12), John Boccieri (OH-16) (YES, but keep pressuring him until we hear the announcment), Rick Boucher (VA-9), Allen Boyd (FL-2), Travis Childers (MS-1), (NO) Lincoln Davis (TN-4) (NO According to posters on other blogs, Davis’ staffers are telling the callers he will vote NO), Betsy Markey (CO-4) (YES ACCORDING TO YAHOO!)  , Jim Matheson (UT-2), Scott Murphy (NY-20), Glenn Nye (VA-2), Heath Shuler (NC-11), John Tanner (TN-8 ), Harry Teague (NM-2) (NO). Suzanne Kosmas (FL-24), Henry Cuellar (TX-28), Tom Perriello (VA-5),  John Barrow (GA-1), Sanford Bishop (GA-2), Tim Bishop (NY-1), Gabrielle Giffords (AZ-8 ), Baron Hill (IN-9), Paul Kanjorski (PA-11), Alan Mollohan (WV-1), Solomon Ortiz (TX-27)  (YES.  Boy is he crazy.  Wait till Texas finds this out), Bill Owens (NY-23), Tom Perriello (VA-5), Earl Pomeroy (ND-All) (Bought with sweeteners in reconciliation bill.  He’s being played for a patsy.  Update:  Has been taken out of the bill at the request of Conrad after being called on it by the GOP) Nick Rahall (WV-3), Zack Space (OH-18 ), Kathy Dahlkemper (PA-3), and Brad Ellsworth (IN-8 ), and last but not least Joseph Cao (R-LA). (NO)

Keep the heat up.  If you get down, read one of the greatest motivational posts that I have ever seen on Redstate. 

Keep the fervent heat on the congressmen.  We can win this.

COMMENTS

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  • bk

    I didn’t hear the first part as to what the source is for their numbers, but it’s undoubtedly slowly creeping up.

    • RealQuiet

      But if the White House is saying they are 6 votes short, that might be the only thing I have heard that could be honest out of the White House :)

  • Swamp_Yankee

    Yeah, Pelosi comes out this morning and tells everyone thir two votes away.

    The White House just stated that they are six votes away.

    Ah, hah.

    Pelosi is a liar and her own member must realize it by now.

  • RealQuiet

    Unconfirmed reports….trying to get more info

  • Swamp_Yankee

    Calls Senate abotion language unnacceptable.

    Also comments of the rude callers. Something of a pet peeve of mine. I dont understand activists who think they can threaten and berate someone into voting a certain way. It shows a complete lack of understanding of the human psyche. I hope he’s talking more about liberal losers than conservative losers.

    http://bdtonline.com/local/x282174330/Boucher-Rahall-on-the-fence-on-health-care-bill

    • RealQuiet

      Sounds like he is s Stupak member. So, the Dems are going all in on this one. They’ll allow the measure to be passed or defeated on the floor. Going to be intense!

      • Swamp_Yankee

        Dems have to beat us 3-1 on the undecideds, but every time they get one, the media covers it extensively, and our guys get one, no attention.

        Gettting Rahall would be way more important than them getting botch-ieri

        • IJB

          If that is correct, and none of the current “No’s” switch, San Fran Nan is already at the breaking point – one more “No”, and the Bill won’t pass.

          And, 5 more “No’s”, and it will be defeated soundly (because 5 more “No’s” will lead to 25 more “No’s”)…

          • proudgop

            Baird, DeFazio, Kaptur will all vote for yes I am sure

            Murphy NY is likely too now. Owens will too

            PA Dem’s will be key: Altmire, Dahlkemper, Carney

          • RealQuiet

            Dahlkamper looks like a Stupak pro-lifer so I like our chances there. Altmire would be ridiculously stupid to vote yea. 60% of seniors in his constituency are on Medicare Advantage.

  • chbroussard

    The news that this bill allows the IRS to decide if your insurance meets the govenment’s standards should light a fire under every Patriot to make those calls and send those faxes. We cannot afford to stop the pressure now. Don’t stop until the the very last vote has been counted.

  • Common_Cents

    “It’s for his mom” and he dragged out a couple constituents and gave all the bleeding heart talking points.

    • kmacwayne

      nt

      • Ausonius

        Yes, Boccieri did the “poor pitiful” act for the microphones and cameras, hoping desperately that an image of “caring for poor people” will counterbalance the destruction of the American economy and the Constitution.

        If it worked for BIG BRObama, maybe it will work for him!

        • IJB
  • RealQuiet

    It shouldn’t surprise you. When you see other Dems calling for a press conference to announce their vote, look for sob stories as a clear indicator.

  • teresakoch

    that has to be a good sign, right? These House members are starting to figure out that all of their bargaining might be for naught if the Senate isn’t going to play ball (I guess they didn’t get the memo from the Senate members yet that told them that very thing – the Senate isn’t budging).

    • RealQuiet

      The GOP Senate have been pounding the House leadership that nothing will be done because they will tie everything up if a reconciliation bill comes to the floor. Passing the Senate bill without reconciliation is what is holding the Hispanic Caucus’ support because Immigration would be next. Immigration will never come up if reconciliation is pursued.

      • proudgop

        Muprhy NY is leaning towards yes now

        Working Class Family is targeting Acuri in NY too. They have promised a third party bid in general and primary challenge already if he votes no

      • LibertarianHawk

        Not, anyway, the kind of immigration reform they’d like to see.

        There’s no way on earth they’re going to get already bloodied Democrats in Congress to grab hold of that lightning rod.

        If the Hispanic caucus Dems vote “Yes” on the promise that they’ll get amnesty this year and make the exclusion of illegal immigrants from the healthcare exchange a moot point, they’re gullible.

        Still, I don’t like the way this is going. I’m resigned to looking at this as one battle in a war that will still be ongoing come Sunday evening. If I’m right about how it’s going to come out, I’m confident that it will look to history as the left’s Bunker Hill.

  • LibertarianHawk

    I’m in IN-08.

    As most know, Ellsworth is likely to be the Democratic Party’s nominee to replace Evan Bayh in the Senate. And he’s already given up any possibility of remaining in his House seat (which he’d have been relatively easily reelected to…he’s still very popular).

    Thing is: he isn’t *yet* the party’s nominee. And, because of the timing of Bayh’s announcement, nobody filed to run in the primary.

    What that means is that the state party gets to select their candidate for the general election ballot. In other words: Obama gets to select it.

    None of these people are stupid — they know that Ellsworth’s chances of winning in November go down precipitously with a “Yes” vote on healthcare. So I think all involved would rather he be able to vote “No”….but that will only be allowed if the bill’s fate would rely on his vote.

    You may as well cross him off the list or otherwise chalk him up as a “Yes.” Because, if he announces that he’s voting “No”, then it will be a very ominous sign for our side.

    • LibertarianHawk

      “So I think all involved would rather he be able to vote ?No??.but that will only be allowed if the bill?s fate would rely on his vote.”

      should read

      “but that will only be allowed if the bill?s fate wouldn’t rely on his vote.

      • proudgop

        he didn’t vote in budget committee the other day

        Donnelly is voting no and if Ellsworth does too wonder what Hill will do?

        • IJB

          That tracks with what I thought he’d do – Baron Hill is a far, far Leftie, who’s totally out of step with his district.

          No matter who his GOP opponent is, Hill’s a sure loser in 2010…

        • LibertarianHawk

          His political stones are sitting squarely in Barack Obama’s hands right now.

          If Ellsworth were to do anything that ran afoul of the White House, his (otherwise promising) political career would likely be over. The party can very easily nominate somebody else for the Senate race. And they’d get takers, because both of the likely GOP candidates aren’t terribly strong.

          And it’s too late for him to try to keep in his House seat. The Dems already have another candidate for that one.

          He’s not in a position to break ranks if they need his vote. And I’m sure that’s not a coincidence. If they don’t need his vote, then they’ll at least understand him voting against it…if not encourage it.

          He has a chance at winning in November. And voting “no” on healthcare would help those chances.

          • Joshua Persons

            From the analysis here … What’s the benefit to him for voting “Yes”? Seems to me the scenarios are:

            -He votes “No”. He is given the candidacy anyway. He runs a viable election because he voted “No”. (Best)

            -He votes “No”. He is not given the candidacy. He obviously can’t win the Senate seat, but his political career is still alive. (Bad)

            -He votes “Yes” as the deciding vote. He is given the candidacy. He loses the election because he votes “Yes”. His political career is dead. (Worst)

            Seems like “No” is better either way. He just needs to massage the situation as best as possible (i.e., don’t commit to a “No” until absolutely necessary) in order to stay in Obama’s good graces and retain a shot at the candidacy.

          • LibertarianHawk

            …looking at your first option (votes no, gets the nomination, is viable in November) as being possible. A message has been delivered and he’s gotten it.

            And I don’t think he’s looking at your second option (votes no, doesn’t get the nomination, but still has a political future) as likely.

            In other words, he’s put all of his eggs in this basket. And if the basket is taken away from him, he’ll become persona non grata in the party.

            It would be different if the party leadership didn’t hold so much power to make or break political careers. But they do.

            We’ll only hear from him once the outcome is already determined. If he votes “Yes”, it will be because his vote was necessary to secure passage. If he votes “No”, it will be because it had no bearing on the outcome either way.

    • cwilson

      If it becomes clear (before hand to the rank and file; afterwards to the leadership) that the bill is going to go down — then it will go down HARD. At that point, one more defection to “no” doesn’t matter; Ellsworth would probably figure he’d be able to plausibly say to the Party: “Look, you were gonna lose, so a ‘Yes’ from me would only have destroyed our chances of keeping this seat in November.” However, in this scenario, Ellsworth would be one of a rash of ‘no’ announcements.

      If he, alone, announces a ‘no’ — then, yeah, pretty ominous. That would signify that the leadership felt they had it in the bag, and didn’t need his vote.

      • LibertarianHawk

        If a “Yes” vote wouldn’t put it over the top anyway, then they’ll probably release him to vote “No” for political reasons.

        All I’m saying is that he’s a non-issue because of the position he’s in. A lot of people are pointing out that he’s running for the Senate, and would thus have good reason to vote “No”, etc. etc.

        What they’re forgetting is that he has to receive the party’s nomination first. It’s not like he’s running in a primary. And he simply won’t get it if Barack Obama doesn’t bless it.

        BTW, I should add that what I’m saying here isn’t my speculation. It didn’t come from the horse’s mouth — but it did come from a horse in the same stable.

        He’s in the party’s pocket, entirely. And it was by design.

  • mavericktime

    “What Are Obamacare’s Chances of Passing? [Jeffrey H. Anderson]

    With two days to go before a scheduled vote of colossal importance, passage of Obamacare isn’t looking likely ? although a great deal will be determined by how much the American people keep the pressure on wavering representatives and counterbalance the intense pressure being applied by the Obama administration and congressional leaders.”

    http://healthcare.nationalreview.com/

    Everyone needs to stay “on it!”

  • APA Guy

    Need to step up efforts.

  • APA Guy

    Need to step up efforts.

    • Beasley Beesmeal

      HINZ rule

      • penguin2

        from him yesterday.

        One thing that I think we should be on the alert for, are comments here and there that sound like concern, or even giving updates that turn out to not be substantiated. It is easy for someone to stop by and comment, but their aim is to call attention to something negative, or incite a feeling of distress on our side. The other side wants to drive our morale down.

        • Beasley Beesmeal

          and you can be sure there are others

  • cwilson

    The #1 rule of American politics: Dick Morris is always wrong. (Can you say, “President Hillary”?)

  • RealQuiet

    But it does make sense and seems in line with the breakdown of the votes. By the way,

    http://politicalwire.com/archives/2010/03/19/no_more_negotiating_with_stupak.html

  • JSobieski

    I agree that Dick’s predictions make me nervous.

  • proudgop

    Titus is voting yet not huge shock but another one to hang in November. Her and Harry Reid should have same hall to cry at

  • eburke