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Gallup final generic poll? GOP +15, 55-40

By: RealQuiet (Diary)  |  October 31st, 2010 at 09:33 PM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

Massive carnage.

If this verifies, the GOP gains in the House could likely go above 100 seats.  This poll assumes a mid-term turnout of 45% which is higher than previous midterm elections.  Typically I like my diaries to be longer than this but sometimes, few words are necessary.

Jay Cost is going to be awfully green tomorrow.

COMMENTS

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  • Kyle-MI

    The final Gallup poll in 1994 was even 46/46. The best poll of that year for the GOP was 50/44 and that was back in June.

  • barleycorn

    I think you are dead on correct. If Gallup’s numbers are accurate, this wave will inundate districts that no one has on their dry-erase boards.

    Furthermore, if this number is accurate the GOP will win a majority in the Senate.

    • RealQuiet

      If that Gallup poll is spot on. It has for the most part been quite consistent for the month of October.

  • http://908StraightSt.wordpress.com/ mbecker908

    projected a +13 (FoxNews) difference into an 80+ swing. I like the direction we’re moving.

    • JSobieski

      nt

      • http://908StraightSt.wordpress.com/ mbecker908
  • IJB

    Yes, you read that right – +27!

    Using the Swingometer, that gets you to about 250 R seats, and is R+71 seats!

    However, I did an analysis before that shows that the Swingometer misses about half-a-dozen (or more?) currently open seats likely to swtich, and a number of long-time incumbents who are also unusually in danger this year.

    So I think this R+15 spread in Gallup would actually translate into about R+80 seats!!

    (FWIW, I suspect the D’s will ultimately get up to 42-44% of the two party vote, so I suspect the real R-to-D differential will be +12-16%, so +15 is on the higher end of that range…)

    • distantvoter

      It will primarily be because they were able to up their turnout in safe D districts. That may help them in Senate and Governor races, but it won’t help in the House.

      If Gallup is right, it’s like 1894. That’s what Barone said a month ago, and he’s probably smarter than all the rest of us put together.

  • Robert Allen Leeper

    of the rated toss ups (+ all the leans/likely/safe rated seats). But let’s think how historic +55 would be and be pleasantly surprised.