Ryan-Pawlenty — The Midwest ticket will win for the GOP?
The heck with a Romney-Cain ticket.
Some interesting things have been happening in the last week. Paul Ryan apparently or possibly has come off his Shermanesque “No” position, saying he doesn’t intend to run for the presidency right now. I have been wanting this guy to run for presidency since 2010. Now Eric Cantor is throwing his support behind a Ryan candidacy. You have to wonder what other prominent figures within the GOP are encouraging Paul Ryan to run now.
The key to this year’s presidency is the Midwest region consisting of the country consisting of Wisconsin, Indiana, Ohio, Michigan, and maybe even Minnesota. Now in all fairness, you never want to say a presidential candidate has no chance in a region of the United States but with the exception possibly of Florida and Virginia, Barack Obama has no chance from the Carolinas on south and the Plains states this year. You could throw a GOP candidate in which most people would really have to hold their noses and put in a vote for and that candidate would come out on top.
Tim Pawlenty has stated recently would sign onto Ryan’s plan though the way he stated was framed as being a choice between Barack Obama’s plan and Ryan’s plan, he would choose Ryan’s. The money quote I found in this article was something Chuck Schumer said:
The Medicare issue contributed to last week’s upset victory of Democrat Kathy Hochul in a special election for a vacant House seat in a traditionally Republican district in western New York state. “If they continue this way, not only will we keep the Senate, but we’re likely to pick up the House,” Schumer said on “Meet the Press.”
Ahh, the unicorns and rainbows of Democratic spin. The reason for the NY-26 loss wasn’t because of Ryan’s Medicare plan, it was because of the failure of the GOP candidate to really understand and articulate the Ryan plan to voters along with a fake Tea Party candidate that siphoned off a significant portion of votes from Jane Corwin. This is illustrated perfectly in this article.
If Medicare, Obamacare, and the economy will be the defining issues in the 2012 presidential election, looking at Ryan’s plan and comparing it with Obamacare, the differences cannot be more stark:
Ryan’s plan actually puts the U.S. back on a track towards fiscal solvency and actually makes Medicare solvent. To put it simply, his plan saves Medicare. Obamacare and non-action BANKRUPT Medicare, making it insolvent. If Medicare becomes insolvent, the rule of the day will be rationing and death panels:
“Obamacare kills Medicare as we know it,” Ryan said. “Obamacare raids $500 billion from Medicare to spend on Obamacare, puts in place a [15-member] board to ration Medicare. Our budget repeals the raiding, gets rid of the rationing board, preserves this program — makes no changes for a person 55 years of age or older, and saves Medicare.
Among top-tier prospective nominees, Ryan would have the biggest geographical advantage in a race against Obama. To win the presidency, Ryan would just have to win his home state and hold GOP-leaning Florida, Ohio, and Virginia. That would be it: election over, Obama defeated, Ryan’s pen poised to sign the Obamacare-repeal legislation.
Ryan’s advantage in Wisconsin as a home-state candidate would fundamentally change the dynamic in that “must win” Democratic state. A Public Policy Polling survey in March showed Ryan having a higher net favorable rating in Wisconsin among independents, among Republicans, and among all respondents, than any other prospective GOP candidate included in the survey. Additionally, Wisconsin borders three other states in play: Michigan, Minnesota, and the important toss-up state of Iowa. The Badger State also isn’t far removed, geographically or culturally, from Ohio or western Pennsylvania.
Ryan’s competitiveness in Wisconsin would open up scenarios in which he could potentially survive even the loss of the most important state on the electoral map: Florida. Without winning Florida, a Republican who doesn’t win Wisconsin would absolutely have to win Pennsylvania. Even then, he or she would face an uphill battle, as Pennsylvania is worth 9 fewer electoral votes than the Sunshine State. Wisconsin’s 10 electoral votes, however, would more than make up that difference. Moreover, Ryan could potentially survive the loss of both Florida and Pennsylvania—which no other potential GOP nominee could realistically do—by sweeping Wisconsin, Nevada, and the three toss-up states of Colorado, Iowa, and New Hampshire. This would be a tall order, but a feasible one if the youthful and engaging Ryan were to catch fire in the West.
The only other potential top-rung nominee who would enjoy similar geographical advantages would be Minnesota’s Tim Pawlenty. But Minnesota would be harder for a Republican to win than Wisconsin, it doesn’t border Michigan, and it’s a little farther removed from Ohio and Pennsylvania.
Now if we paired Ryan with Pawlenty as the VP? Oh boy, the Democratic party would have a very, very hard map to defend. Takers anyone?