(Update:  Rasmussen has come out with a new Iowa poll:  Romney 23, Gingrich 20 (!) Paul 18, Perry 10.  I’m shocked by the Gingrich free fall.  Seems like a lot of Iowa voters that were supporting Gingrich went back to the undecided pile)

Let’s just say….I don’t want to get prematurely excited.  I have seen the polls from the American Research Group and Insider Advantage showing Rick Perry gaining a lot of momentum from November until now in Iowa and South Carolina.   People and operatives on the ground in Iowa thought that Perry’s advertising and messages were starting to take hold prior to these polls coming out.  It may be a combination of this and Newt Gingrich’s record and personal history turning off that huge carousel of conservative voters that have been migrating trying to find a home for a conservative candidate they like and trust.

Rasmussen will be due out with a poll very soon in Iowa I have to imagine.  If Rasmussen verifies the polling of American Research Group and Insider Advantage, then Perry’s momentum will be confirmed and would be very worrisome to both Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney.  If we start seeing Rick Perry getting 16-20% of the vote before Christmas, then I really am going to start getting excited.  This will indicate potentially breakaway momentum and he may likely win Iowa.  Keep in mind that the coalition of Iowan conservative leaders  haven’t come out with an endorsement of a conservative candidate they are going to get behind.   If Perry gets this endorsement while on the big Iowa bus tour he is about to embark on, this could potentially propel him to get that breakaway momentum.  Heck, even a Redstate endorsement wouldn’t hurt (sorry Erick, I couldn’t resist )

Looks like this isn’t going unnoticed elsewhere in the conservative blogosphere.

Leaky Buckets — Status quo GOP candidates

I have seen so much chatter about electability in this election.  More than ever, we want a candidate who we know will beat Barack Obama.  The GOP establishment has been wanting to push Mitt Romney on us for some time.  Newt Gingrich isn’t really all that attractive to the GOP establishment but he would likely hold the status quo of government somewhat together given his recent statements, most notably in his interview with Glenn Beck, and his past history of playing both sides of the fence like Romney does.  This creates the problem of a lot of GOP conservative voters staying home.  The erroneous belief is to skim as much votes from the middle while trying to minimize the loss of voters in your base.  This is done by muddling your positions.  Hence, this is why I think that Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich can be considered as leaky buckets because of each of their unique deficiencies.  Newt Gingrich said it best that you don’t try to go get the voters in the middle, you get the voters in the middle to come to you.  You don’t have to worry about that with Rick Perry.  The past issues regarding immigration and Gardisil have been addressed.  His debating has vastly improved.  I don’t see any leaks with Perry now.

Instead of wringing our hands in the hopes of winning by nominating one who may poll the best in head to head matchups with Obama, I have a different suggestion.  Why not do what we did in 1980?  Nominate a conservative candidate who is campaigning on reforming Washington/government that will assure the GOP base comes out and take our chances with independent voters which Barack Obama has a 35% approval rating with?  It would be so nice to not have to hold our nose to vote for the GOP nominee in November 2012.