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Boom with coattails. Romney leads in Iowa, Wisconsin, Florida, Ohio and Virginia

By: RealQuiet (Diary)  |  August 16th, 2012 at 05:41 PM  | 

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The latest swing state polling from Rasmussen and Purple Strategies has had some alarming news for the Obama Campaign.  These polls pretty much are during the period prior to or just after the Ryan VP rollout.  I would have to be thinking “UH OH” given the fact that Romney has beaten Obama for 2 straight months in fundraising and Obama has shot a huge portion of his wad by trying to take out Romney early.  Romney has had to hold his campaign chest for the most part legally until after the convention.  I have to think that the full impact of Paul Ryan being Romney’s running mate hasn’t quite hit yet.

A Golden Opportunity For the Presidential Race to Be Won Now With Our Wallets?

Looking at the electoral vote strategy, it looks like Romney pulls off Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, and Ohio today. One might think that the Romney campaign will keep a majority of their resources in advertising and ground game on these states to make sure they are in his column.  But I believe there is a big opportunity right now that could win this election.  If the GOP and Tea Party voters open their wallets and give the Romney/Ryan ticket a noticeable windfall and expand the fundraising gap between Romney and Obama, the race could be won now.  This could allow Romney additional resources to mount a formidable advertising and ground game invasion in the reliable blue states of Wisconsin, Iowa, Michigan, as well as independent-minded New Hampshire, and trending blue Colorado and Nevada.   Pennysylvania has showed within striking distance but I would have to think that Mitt, given the choice between making a play for Michigan or Pennsylvania, would choose Michigan because of his roots there.  If the fundraising gap widens, the Obama campaign will be either stretched too thin trying to defend this monstrous push or will hunker down and throw everything into holding the Midwest, pulling away valuable resources from other states.

Coattails in the Senate?

Another four alarm fire alert has to be the latest Rasmussen poll out of Ohio showing the incumbent Democratic senator Sherrod Brown and Josh Mandel in a tie, 44-44.  I don’t think this is a seat that the Democrats thought they were in danger of losing as Brown has held solid leads through out the year.  The Senate races in Florida, Ohio, and Virginia are very, very precarious for the Democratic Party.  I might even argue that Florida and Ohio are slightly leaning GOP right now, particularly Mandel in Ohio because of the momentum he has there.

With seats in Nebraska, Montana, North Dakota, Missouri and Wisconsin likely flipping, the GOP is very possibly looking at least a 7 seat flip (assuming Massachusetts doesn’t flip back) right now taking the lean states into consideration and it could go higher.  Virginia would make it 8 and then you’re left with New Mexico, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Connecticut, Minnesota, California and Hawaii which look as likely Dem holds right now.  Looking at any potential surprise pick-offs in the likely Dem hold list, I have to figure the GOP changes are best in Michigan, New Mexico, Connecticut and Hawaii.  Nevada looks to be a GOP hold and though polling in Indiana shows a slight Mourdock lead according to the polls, I have to believe the Obamacare/Medicare raid debate is going to be awfully hard for Joe Donnelly to pull off because of his Obamacare vote in the House.

The current political dynamics give a visual of the Obama campaign trying to hold back the dam from breaking and being swamped.  Knowing undecideds typically break against the incumbent on Election Day is probably causing some sleepless nights in the White House and in Chicago.  This opportunity cannot be let to go by the wayside.

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  • renny

    and let’s hope for a comet’s worth of coattails. Sen. here we come.

  • Change Jar Conservative

    Let’s continue to pound Obama with social media and twitter.

    Give where you can.

    Taking the Senate will be great.

  • superpatriot

    …if Romney wins those states and throw in N. Carolina, Obama will be nothing but a bad memory.

    Fellow redstaters, we must make sure Romney does as well as he can in all these states.

  • emptybucket

    giving again. It sounds like the flood gates have opened with the Ryan pick. The election got a bit more exciting this week. Now if only Romney/Ryan would pound the heck out of the opposition.

    • RealQuiet

      I just hope the trend continues. There was a bucket of cold water thrown on the Florida Senate GOP race. Bill Nelson is up on Connie Mack by 47-40. Have to assume this is the result of the GOP primary fight so Mack will probably close the distance here in the next few weeks.

      • greyeagle

        He is playing gutter politics like the other Dems here in Fl. I think there will be a huge turn out of Republicans and Independents for the election. I do think Connie Mack will prevail. Col. Allen West is going to be having a very hard time against a vicious opponent whose father got involved with a Super PAC and made some racists attacks against Col. West. I do think Col. West will prevail as well.

  • proudmarinemom

    Turnout was very heavy today at Paul Ryan’s appearance at West Springfield HS in the somewhat liberal-leaning suburbs of D.C. in Northern Va. (went for the O in 2008) The sober reality that the constituents here may, maybe, hold the deciding votes in the General in this “toss-up” (now Pink and Leaning) state was palpable. But the place was on fire.

    Artur Davis introduced Ryan with a gracious, classy, upbeat speech. Actually, they’re all classy people, from Ken Cuccinelli to Frank Wolf to Pat Herrity to Chris Perkins and onward.

    People here understand their responsibility. They take it to heart. Virginia will stand with Romney and Ryan. That’s a promise.

    Semper fi.

    • emptybucket

      were you able to go to Ryan’s function today? I love your handle. Thank you for serving. I remember we were on the same page when that Bloomberg formula thing can out. Think we may be in agreement on many issues. We are big Paul Ryan fans here.

      • proudmarinemom

        but misplaced my post below. No matter, You and I are on the same page.

        This is a great country. America is still here, still great and ever ready for a new era.

        Cannot wait to wake up tomorrow to more good news of my beloved country.

  • proudmarinemom

    beaming, as Paul Ryan shook her hand. What a memorable day for her. This is the America I wanted for her.

    We are so blessed to have this opportunity. We’re going to win this election — not “we” the Republican Party, “We The People”

    Ooh-rah!

  • barleycorn

    I think your observation that this is the time to attack and break through the Obama Line is correct.

    The lack of commentary from the pundits on the right on Romney’s poll improvement is noticeable. I think they are all waiting to see if he can sustain it a few days.

    But like you I think the dam is about to burst.

  • Remington_Steele

    It may be small, but anything to help the cause.

  • wrongwaybama

    Great post. We all need to give what we can. Please get Tester OUT!!!!

  • reclaimit

    I was just down in Florida and I can tell you that the GOP is not working as if Florida is a lock. This is a must win state now, given the way the othe swing states are moving, which is why Ryan was down here with his mother. They are all hoping Ryan spends more time in the Sunshine State. He was very effective, and Romney doesn’t inspire much down there.

  • celador2

    Does Romney have a home state? MA is where he was governor and ran for office. He has a vacation home on NH. He and Ann grew up in MIchigan and have roots there. He may not carry MA however or Michigan. But Indiana is s different matter.
    .
    Larry Sabato points out the coattails for Obama at 60-40 even 55-45 will help Eliz Warren take the Scott Brown Senate seat unless thousands of voters cross over and vote Obama and Scott Brown.

    Indiana may be one state that will return to Republican nominee Romney as that state is conservative. WIll Romney have coattails for Mourdock is the question. In this tie a Romney win might also push Mourdock over the finish line.

  • celador2

    Donate time as a volunteer to a campaign and we will be as helpful as giving money.

    In WIsconsin volunteers are vital for so many tasks, some can be done from the home like calls. The Victory centers set up by RNC Priebus to organize support for Scott in recall are now operating the R-R campaign.

    The Romney Ryan campaign seeks helpers as do Senate and other campaigns. One can also volunteer for a state or county party

    Time is money and there are so many things to do.

  • celador2

    Linda McMahon spent money and lost to Blumenthal 2010. She has repeated that process with unlimited funds this year. She had the party endorsement both times. But CT is too Democratic leaning for a pick up in a presidential election year. Lieberman is Indep but caucuses with Dems. If she does win CT it will be the biggest shake up in the nation. .Bucking Obama coattails she will have them herself and can built a farm team in the state if she wins.

    HI has rewarded Linda Lingle with a statewide win as governor and maybe might again. But a win to Lingle would also be a shake up and would signal HI is not inevitably Democratic.