September 7, 2012 — RR Day — A look at the strategy prior to a massive assault
Senior Romney-Ryan campaign officials tell Fox News the campaign will launch an enormous media offensive on Friday, the day after President Obama accepts the Democratic Party’s nomination for a second term. The push will include ad buys in several states that will cost tens of millions of dollars.
Aides said more than a dozen new ads, each tailored to different regions and segments of the electorate, will begin airing Friday, aimed at dramatically shifting the dynamics of a contest that Romney-Ryan aides acknowledge, in terms of the hard realities of the electoral map, have until now favored the Obama-Biden ticket….
Romney-Ryan officials did not repudiate such talk; indeed, one official, in speaking to Fox News, likened the offensive that will begin Thursday to the “daisy cutter” bombs used in the Iraq war.
Senior Democratic sources say that in closed-door meetings with campaign donors here at the convention, top Obama campaign officials like campaign manager Jim Messina are expressing increasing alarm over the fact that Republican Mitt Romney raised $100 million in the month of August alone, further expanding his cash edge.
The Democratic sources tell Fox News the Obama team is privately saying they believe the final days of the presidential race are now shaping up as a dramatic battle between money and demographics, with President Obama’s advisers fearful that Romney will use his war chest to unleash a bombardment of television ads and ground game to turn out more white, working-class voters.
Nevertheless, the Obama team is saying in these private meetings they are still confident that they can win by exploiting their demographic edge with Hispanic, African-American and female voters, among others.
The only problem with this is the massive enthusiasm gap advantage that Republicans have or Democrats and a huge 11 point shift towards the GOP in partisan voter identification since 2008. Combine this with Romney significantly outraising Obama the last two months (and soon to be a third) and you have the ingredients for Mitt Romney becoming the 45th president of the United States.
The Electoral Landscape
Here is a nice breakdown given today by Hot Air. The Romney has had a small presence on the air waves in Michigan and Pennsylvania thus far. Looking at the polls using the results of the 2008 electoral map, trends, fundraising numbers in both campaigns, and intangibles, I believe that Mitt Romney would win Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio, Wisconsin, Indiana and Iowa. That would put Romney at 282 electoral votes. I don’t believe this is optimistic. I believe this is actually quite realistic. I would give Romney an edge in Colorado because the GOP voter registration advantage has increased there since 2008. Michigan, Nevada and New Hampshire are in toss-up territory. Pennsylvania I give a lean to Obama. To be honest, Pennsylvania is quite a high mountain to climb but with Romney having a solid fundraising edge, the more states you compete for, the more he will force Obama to respond.
I have seen a lot of input across the blogosphere on how the Romney campaign should attack. Put me in the “Spread Obama thin and bleed his money dry” camp. The main offensive thrust would be to rake the Rust and Coal Belts from Wisconsin, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia. Makes coordinating personal visits to these states easy. The money spent in Pennsylvania should be enough to force Obama to respond. However, I wouldn’t dump as much money in Pennsylvania as I would in Michigan. I think Mitt has a great chance there of pulling that state off. Florida of course is very important and I am sure that the Romney camp is going to not ignore that. I think North Carolina is a lock for Romney after the fiasco of a convention we have witnessed from the Democrats. The secondary front would be Colorado, Nevada, and Oregon. Oregon is starting to get more and more chatter.
The Obama campaign would have a very hard choice to make in this scenario. Sit on their hands and pray Romney doesn’t start pulling away or defend immediately and rely on unmotivated donors to prevent them from running out of money gas.