reported that early voting is about 50/50 and this seems to prove it. If early voting is any indidcation, then this election is all about Turn out!

So Turn out, Turn out, Turn out!

And for the love of Pete, stop reading and listnening to these stupid polls. The only thing you need to know about the polls is that Sen. Obama is making a 30 min appeal this week; that means his staff believes he still needs to close the deal. He may yet if we don’t turn out, turn out, turn out!

-nt.

This is a myth that keeps being repeated on here. Republicans traditionally have a large edge in early voting and absentee ballot requests. The fact that it is nearly 50/50 is not a good sign for Republican turnout.

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-earlyvoting25-2008oct25,0,2944747.story

Unless I’m wrong and someone wants to look at the actual numbers of previous elections by state? This was the only reference I can find, and unfortunately it’s not a good one.

I think McCain will win NC, IN, FL, and OH

I am worried about VA, NC, and MO now for some reason

Problem is we still need another state and I still doubt we win PA

McCain holds OH, FL, MO, and NC. Obama picks up VA. If McCain holds those four states, and also manages to hold Nevada, Colorado, or New Mexico, then he only needs Pennsylvania to win.
If the polls close and both VA and NC are called for Obama, then McCain needs to concede right then and there. He wouldn’t have a prayer on winning unless something really screwy happens like winning California.
I’m not buying the polls at this point. You have a lot of the partisan left polls giving Obama double digit leads, but Rasmussen, Zogby, and some others have it in single digits, between three and six points. With this much disparity out there, it tells me there are more McCain supporters out there that are possibly not being sampled.

I’ve been Googling the Toobz all I can, but from everything I can find, California isn’t reporting Republican vs. Democrat totals. Some states are, some states aren’t. California doesn’t seem to be. Link, please?

Living here I sorta of have a feel of what’s happening and I think its so close here because of Prop 8 being on the ballot.

California’s are tired of having the liberal agenda shoved down its throat by liberal judges legislating form the bench.

I think there are many here who see the same things in Obama and the democrats and do see what a super majority would bring. The fact we have to go and re-establish the definition of marraige or sit by and watch it shoved onto our kids via the liberal teachers union and the law.

This issues has hit some nerves and people are accutely aware about how their rights can be taken away from them overnight by some judge. I think this connection has cause a worrisome eye to grow here in CA. It would be a hoot if we managed to push CA over.

These early voting numbers for California are very misleading, and I’ll tell you why. Los Angeles county, the largest county in the state and HEAVILY Democratic, only has ONE early voting location in the whole county — clear the hell down in Norwalk, where the registrar’s office is. It’s VERY out of the way from where the main population centers are. (Clue: I don’t even know exactly where Norwalk is, and I’ve lived in Hollywood nine years.) I would bet you very few people are voting early in Los Angeles county. I know I wouldn’t drive all the way down there to vote early.

The smaller and heavily Republican Orange County, however, has TWELVE early voting locations!

http://www.ocvote.com/vote/votearlyenglish.htm

It’s really crazy — I don’t know why it’s this way. (However, this could turn out to be good for McCain on election day.)

At any rate, this is much of the reason that early in-person voting seems to be favoring Republicans.

I honestly think pollsters, experts and the media are going to be shocked come election day. The election was brought up at work, one guy in particular told me he wasn’t voting at all (the odd thing too, was, I actually said some good things about Obama and knew damn well in my head, I was voting for McCain, but never said it). He said, he didn’t like either one of them. I was convinced, however, later on he told me, in private of course when nobody else was around..I’m voting for McCain. He told me, it’s not wise to ever discuss politics, religion or money with any group of people. Last week, I watched the same discussion at work about the election and several were talking to one individual about Obama, they said, he would be their choice. Not shortly after that, all three people that supported Obama in that conversation, walked away talking about how they’re voting for McCain. They did that not to hurt the feelings of the other person they were talking too.Nobody told me that’s why, but it was easy to tell giving the fact I’ve been around them long enough to understand it’s better to tell a lie than to cause static or hurt feelings. There is a lot of deceit in this particular election. I think it’s considering other’s feelings, and by telling a lie in that way is far much better than ruining a relationship.

What are your sources for these numbers? You are pulling these numbers out of thin air. This story is a complete fabrication.

Seriously, you can’t just say an arbitrary number of people are doing a particular thing without a source for the numbers.

What results are you referring to?

“The results thus far are the complete opposite. In the most liberal state in the entire country,the results are that 99,000 Republicans have voted and 96,000 Democrats voted. In the mail-in balloting the results so far are that 9,000 Democrats sent in their ballots and that 5,000 Republicans did so. So with nearly 210,000 people having voted,the Democrats have only a 1,000 vote advantage !”

Where did these number come from? Results? Results from what? What study? What poll? California does not disclose this information until after the election.

Think of why Cali swings blue to begin with: minority votes. IMO, the flood of D votes will come on the 4th. I’m not saying I don’t want to see 55 votes back on the… ahem… RIGHT side of the count - it’s happened before and it will happen again.

nt

Republican.

Plus-as good as those numbers sound right now- they aren’t even a drop in the bucket. CA has 16,500,000 registered voters!

Call me a troll if you want (but I’ve been a member longer than most, and it’s the name calling like on this comment section that’s decreased my activity here), but Arturo is just plain correct.

Republicans have always had an edge in early voting. There are several reasons for this. In my opinion, republicans are more likely to hold jobs that prevent them from voting on election day. For another, republicans are more likely to be responsible and to vote in advance instead of waiting until the last minute.

While I would like to be encouraged by the story, it’s a rehash of early voting in election years we have both won and lost. If one is going to hope for an election victory, we need to hope that undecided voters break our way, and we need to ignore polls and vote.

I think the actual popular vote is going to be close (I think people are doubting Obama, and I know a lot of Hillary dems that aren’t going to vote), but the electoral numbers look pretty bad.

[Bye, CharlesKeating/HughEBriss! - Moe Lane]

[We, like, don't let spambotters post here, mannnn. - Moe Lane]

In California, the early absentees are announced before the precincts come in (voting that day and late absentees dropped off at the polls).

In California, unless a Republican running statewide is ahead by double digets (~15% to ~20%), they are toast. At 8:10 P.M. pacific on Nov. 4th, you will know just how badly it’ll be for McCain by taking that vote percentage and subtracting 15-20%.

bhonpoo@yahoo.com

they have made it more entertaining, if nothing else.

Personal experience here in the Socialist Utopia of Wayne County Michigan, the Absentees were more Republican, were good for me in my Campaigns on the Rep. Ticket… But this area is so far Socialist… Anyway, the point again…. I would imagine the ration varies from locale to locale.

If you’ve not run for office before, call your local Party rep (really put your time and money where your mouth is) in case they need you. It’s a blast… Really … Seriously though, there are alot of Offices in many locations that need someone to step up and run.

Regardless, the MSM will spin it to the Dem’s favor or not report it, that simple.

That would be a shame!

This is news from the ground there as my good friend considered voting early. The largest populated county in America, eliminates electronic voting and forces all to come to one central location… surpressing it’s own voters? Strange, no?

My friend is a McCain/PALIN voter:

I was planning to vote early, wrote “planning”, because now the wait at election headquarters is about 3 hours.
Yes, the County decided to eliminate electronic voting at multiple locations meaning the only way to vote early
is to visit their main offices in Norwalk. You can imagine L.A. being the largest voting county in the nation, it is
madness to have everyone come to only one location. What could the benefit be? They control all ballots early.