Jay Cost predicts what I already believed true. Cap and Trade Legislation is potentially difficult to pass in The US Senate. He breaks down which Democratic Senators are possible defectors below.
Senators who face “significant pressure” come from states that voted against it and where most (or all) Democrats defected.

These Senators include: Bayh, Bird, Conrad, Dorgan, Johnson, Landrieu, Lincoln, Pryor, Rockefeller.

Senators who face “moderate pressure” come from states that voted against it, and with at least one Democratic defector.

These Senators include: Brown, Casey, Hagan, Specter, Warner, Webb.

Senators who face “slight pressure” either come from states that voted against it but with no Democratic defectors, or states that voted in favor but with at least one Democratic defector.

The Senate currently lines up 60-39 pro- Democrat. The GOP needs 11 out of 16 to win. This translates to 70% of the votes up for grabs. Assuming they hold their own caucus, this would require a better performance than we got in the House.

The GOP held 95% of its votes, which would translate to 37 out of 39 Senators. The Dems held 211 votes, which equalled 82% of their caucus. This would give them 48 votes in the Senate.

With 48 Dems and 2 Reps, Cap and Trade passes. This doesn’t have to happen, but it could if the GOP doesn’t get to work.