Cramdown Housing Bill Hurts Families Trying to Save Their Home


Without a doubt, our economy is facing a confidence crisis.  As the historic plummet of the markets last week demonstrated, Wall Street has little confidence in recovery right now.  And, as I hear from constituents every day, so has the public.

Though 92% of mortgage holders continue to pay their mortgages on time, they worry about joining the growing ranks of the unemployed, recovering their savings, and making the next mortgage payment.  The doom and gloom reporting from mainstream media and speechifying from Washington figureheads has the potential to be a self-fulfilling prophecy, pulling us down deeper into the spiral instead of lifting us out of it.  As former President Bill Clinton advised current President Obama:  America’s leaders must project optimism in the face of today’s uncertainty.

And, that would be good advice for President Obama’s friends in Congress as well.  Last week, the House passed mortgage cramdown legislation – a seriously misguided bill that will actually add more instability and uncertainty to the housing market.

Under the current system, it is in the best interest of both borrowers and lenders to rework mortgage terms to prevent foreclosures. Lenders want to be repaid and borrowers want to stay in their homes.  Cramdown removes incentives for struggling borrowers to rework the mortgage terms with the lenders since they could simply go to a bankruptcy judge and get a cheaper deal.  Under the bill, a judge would virtually have carte blanche to wipe out part of their principal, reduce their interest rate, and stretch out the term of their mortgage.

Eventually someone will have to pay for it.  Sadly, it will hurt the very same people this legislation is supposed to assist—middle-income homeowners.  Allowing bankruptcy judges – who will certainly see an increased caseload under this law – to permanently reduce the principal owed on mortgages for primary residences, reduce interest rates, and adjust the mortgage terms at whim could result in a 2% increase on interest rates for all homebuyers as lenders increase their rates to compensate for such unpredictable risks.

Officials at the Federal Reserve and the Federal Housing Finance Agency have raised real concerns about whether giving bankruptcy judges the power to modify home loans could discourage fresh investment in that sector.  Moody’s Economy’s chief economist, Mark Zandi, is reported in Dow Jones Newswires as saying that “tinkering with the bankruptcy code could lead to unpredictable results.”

And I share Mr. Zandi’s fear, as well as worry that it will decrease confidence while simultaneously increasing costs—a blow that hard-working Americans simply can not afford to absorb in this weakened economy.  Rather than creating more affordable mortgage options, it produces the opposite effect—putting millions of homeowners or potential buyers at greater risk of an unstable credit and housing market and sustaining inflated interest rates for the future.

Only weeks ago, President Obama introduced a $275-billion housing plan to refinance high loan-to-value mortgages, pay lenders and services to make loan modifications, and subsidize struggling homeowners—even those who may have committed mortgage fraud. In my opinion, his plan has serious flaws.  For instance, it includes no firewalls to ensure people will not choose bankruptcy over loan modifications. Congressional Democrats’ cramdown bill would almost ensure that outcome.

Some in Congress question the Democrat leadership’s cramdown approach.  They wonder why we wouldn’t make it a measure of absolute last resort.  Why we wouldn’t apply it only to truly risky mortgages.  Why we wouldn’t require some proof that the borrower was truthful when he applied for the mortgage he wants a judge to rewrite.  They even wonder why we wouldn’t require some advance warning to lenders before running into court – an opportunity to allow voluntary negotiations to proceed.

These are perfectly legitimate questions that should be answered before the Congress continues to proceed with its “let’s see what sticks” approach to the economy.  Not to mention the basic questions about fairness raised by this bill.  Is it fair to reward the poor decisions of some when others – namely the ones who will foot the bill for their neighbors’ poor decisions – have been cautious and prudent?  A recent Rasmussen poll showed that 76% of Americans are not willing to pay higher taxes to help people who cannot afford to pay their mortgage on time.  And, Rick Santelli’s spontaneous call for a Chicago Tea Party demonstrated how deep such misgivings run.

Congress passed a $300-billion taxpayer-funded program last summer through which it purported it would assist 400,000 families refinance their mortgages. But with a little over 300 applications in the pipeline, it is clear that this program has been a huge waste of time, energy, money and other taxpayer resources.  In fact, this HOPE for Homeowners program has only helped about 25 families actually refinance.

And, Congress has options that could make a real difference.  For instance, House Republicans proposed a first-time home-buyers tax credit of $7,500 for those buyers who make a minimum down-payment of 5 percent. This not only provides a positive tax incentive, it also ensures responsible underwriting standards.

House sponsors titled the cramdown bill the Helping Families Save Their Homes Act, but it is more likely to hurt families than help them.

Category: ,

RSS feed | Trackback URI

4 Comments Leave a comment

Cramdown danger zone

Allan_Yackey Wednesday, March 11th at 1:33PM EDT (link)

There is a fatal flaw in the current system of mortgage financing that has not been rectified. The idea of writing down current mortgages where the home now is less than the mortgage using the same system only risks running the valuation of real estate unrealistically downward in the same manner that it was inflated over the last decade.

When the concept of securitization was first presented to us in the late 1970’s we missed the fatal flaw. While government policies greatly exacerbated the problem with its insistence that lenders provide financing to people literally without income, the flaw lies with securitization itself. What it did was to remove the appraisers from accountability to the eventual holder of the mortgage.

In the old days, mortgages were issued by local lenders. First, local lenders had some sense of what homes were worth. An unrealistically high appraisal would attract the attention of the local lender. If the lender began to lose money on mortgages, where the appraisals in retrospect consistently overestimated the market, the appraiser would soon be out of business.

With securitization, not only does the investor on the East Coast who ends up with the mortgage not know what a home in Broad Ripple Indiana is worth, but the home there is only a part of a package of thousands of mortgages. The lender will NEVER know who the appraiser is, and doesn’t hire him in the first instance.

The appraiser is hired by the mortgage broker or mortgage initiator. The broker only gets paid on closed loans. The higher the appraisal, the happier the seller is. As a practical matter, the broker has already determined how much the buyer can pay and the transaction is already on the table when the appraiser enters the picture, so the appraiser needs only to in effect approve the transaction that has been negotiated. The more of these he/she approves, the more business the broker pushes his/her way. All of the biases in the system are in the direction of generating higher appraisals. This is where we are dealing with people who are trying to be honest.

You can only imagine what the situation became when the seller, broker and appraiser were dishonest. The structural brake on this that existed in the form of the local banker who had some information and who would be burned was gone. In large part this explains the engine that drove the appraisals higher and higher. Even among the honest appraisers the bias caused them to seek support for higher and higher numbers.

The proposals to write down mortgages to the current value of the property simply put the process into reverse. The mortgages are still held by the same absentee lenders who are without knowledge of the market. The situation is even worse, because the party with the nominal interest adverse to the seller (the buyer) is absent. Aside from the remoteness of the lender, if the federal government in any way provides a subsidy for mortgages that are written down, then the actual remote lender has no dog in the fight.

This is true even if we put these things into bankruptcy court. For many years we allowed “cram downs” on motor vehicles. A “cram down” on a house is different from a “cram down” on cars and trucks. A 2006 F150 is a fungible item with a blue book value. A home is unique and the appraisal of the home is a one time process without anything like a blue book. The pressure in this situation is all downward.

What makes the matter worse is that as houses in the neighborhood go through this process more and more houses will lose value. A cascade of houses going through this process is likely. With each transaction comparables of lower and lower value will be available, and the trend of the market will be down. That makes it reasonable for an appraiser to factor the market trend lower and lower.

What makes this all the more frightening is that the system has not been changed in a way to make a difference. Currently, in an effort to control appraisers, mortgages require not one but two independent appraisers. This makes it more difficult for a single appraiser to wander too far up or down. But nothing has been inserted into the system to replace the relationship between the old savings and loan that held the mortgage and the appraiser. There is no downside for an appraiser who over or under appraises a property in a knowing or unknowing effort to satisfy his/her employer.

Allan Yackey

True, as far as you go.

Socrates Wednesday, March 11th at 2:55PM EDT (link)

The other flaw in devaluing mortgages is that it will be successful in preventing foreclosures. People will continue to believe that it is their birthright as Americans to borrow too much money to buy too much house, and not face the consequences of failure to grow their income to meet their promises.

Further, I point to statistics showing that people who get mortgage help continue to fail to pay their mortgages. It does no one any good to cut a person’s bills in half if they can only pay a quarter of them.

There has to be room for failure, or there is no downward pressure on prices. When there is no downward pressure, people selling houses love it, but people buying houses don’t. When there is a price collapse, it’s just a buying opportunity.

People who have too big a mortgage should welcome the opportunity to face reality and get out of it. Instead, we are granting many of them the continued misery of chasing the unattainable.


Gone 2500 years, still not PC.

 

"All of the biases in the system are in the direction of generating higher appraisals. "

Jeff Weimer Wednesday, March 11th at 4:03PM EDT (link)

And that is the crux of the problem, exacerbated by the flood of money enabled by FM/FM and securitization.

“We stand at once the wonder and admiration of the whole world, and we must enquire what it is that has given us so much prosperity. This cause is that every man can make himself.” - Abraham Lincoln

“Cowardice asks the question, is it expedient? And vanity asks the question, is it popular? But conscience asks the question, is it right?” - Martin Luther King, Jr.

 

You mentioned Appraisers as part of the problem

Leopard1996 Thursday, March 12th at 10:57AM EDT (link)

I have a friend who is an appraiser in NJ, who I know for a fact does not over blow or push value on a house. Also NJ in the early 90s had a nice scandal where a fair amount of appraisers and mortgage brokers went to jail for overblown mortgages on houses in the crappiest areas of Asbury Park, by using comparatives in a town over to justify the values in this town. Only problem the town over is nothing but multi-million dollar homes, multi story homes, and they are using those to justify value on a crack house in Asbury Park.

“The accumluated filth of all their sex and murder will foam up about their waists and all the whores and politicians will look up and shout, “Save Us!”….and I’ll look down and whisper, “No”…The Watchmen

 
 

Leave a Comment

 

Be respectful, or be banned. No Profanity.