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The 2012 GOP Primary – Over Before The First Shot Can Be Fired?

"Was it over when the Germans Bombed Pearl Harbor?"

“He’s viewed as an almost inevitable candidate,” said longtime strategist Ed Rollins, who until last month managed the campaign of Rep. Michele Bachmann (Minn.), one of Romney’s opponents. “He’s the heavy favorite.”

WaPo.

I hate the current Presidential Primary system. I find it to be a corrupt cesspool of disingenuous skullduggery, back-knifing and pretentious falseness. No wonder Barack Obama and John McCain could navigate it with such adroitness and skill. No wonder very few rational Americans were particularly enthused to choose between Tweedledum and Tweedleduplicity in November 2008.

I should be overjoyed this fine and beautiful Fall Morning. The debates and the early pre-primary polling contests have taken the bat out of the hands of many a corrupt GOP Establishmentarian Apparatchik. The rigged game is now a busted flush. The GOP star-making machinery has ground to a rusty and coughing halt. This should make me happy, but it does not.

I view the fake and dishonest Ethanol Caucus Farmers with salubrious contempt. I see the self-proclaimed GOP establishment “gatekeepers” in South Carolina as profoundly anti-democratic and an absolute slap in the face to Republicans in 47 other states. The rest of us would appreciate our primary preferences actually counting for something every four years. The current Presidential Nominating system has been just as heavily normalized to reflect elitist preferences as the old, smoke-filled rooms of The Gilded Age. Have we finally replaced this corruption with something better?

Perhaps no longer will hidden wire-pullers, in early Primary and Caucus states, overdetermine the options of Republicans in other states. The race to be first in the nominating contest calendar may now be pointless. Ed Rollins, John Weaver, and many other nauseating Karl Rove wannabes will be dividing up a much smaller pie this nominating season. We may be blessedly spared the GOP version of Michael Whouley deliberately arranging traffic jams to make an opposing candidate’s voters arrive too late to vote in New Hampshire.

The GOP Candidates, themselves, appear to have solved the corrupt primary this year. We just don’t see it, because it looks like the Establishment Boy, Mitt Romney won. The difference between then and now, is that Establishment Boy, Mitt Romney appears to have won a stand-up fight. He had to win a bunch of debates, without some GOP fixer working insider voodoo on his behalf.

Now, of course, there are a few minor flaws. It helps if real, breathing Republicans want and respect Mitt Romney enough to have him as nominee. It also hurts that the people anointing Mitt the loudest are a bunch of unemployed and perhaps unemployable, establishmentarian flunkies themselves. Finally, things could happen that would block Romney’s clear and sunny path to the GOP acceptance speech sometime next summer.

The GOP contingent of the Jacksonian Silent Majority is split among several candidates. What if a couple of the less viable ones park the Crazy Train prior to The All-American Farm Subsidy Caucus? Mitt could have a game 1 loss hung on his 2012 primary record. Then, if the remaining Conservative Insurgent in the GOP field can massively turn out the SC Hill Country, all bets are off.

But that will require some actual thought. That will require a candidate with legitimate and honorable concerns beyond his/her resume. In the idea-free vacuum of the pre-primary debates, Mitt Romney has flourished. As long as the 2012 GOP Primary remains a modeling contest, the prize will and should go to the best-looking and emptiest. And that is what I’m afraid we’ve replaced our corrupt and admittedly oleaginous Presidential Nominating Contest with in 2012.

COMMENTS

  • acat

    the percentage of potential voters, i.e. 18 years old, legal resident, etc., actually show up on election day?

    Mew

    • Repair_Man_Jack

      The fight is unfair, but we still have to wage this war.

  • wennejunk

    along the lines of:

    What the %%% do certain candidates think they are doing?

    Does Bachmann and Santorum really thinkthey have a shot at this point or are they just determined to ensure Perry is not the nominee?

    What does Cain think he is doing by making it clear he would not support a Perry candidacy?

    Why are Huntsman and Johnson still there?

    Is it all just narcissm? They finally have a chance to be seen as important in some way and just can’t quit the adrenaline?

    What is it about ‘The public is just not that into you’ do they not understand?

    I like Perry. I also like Newt. They have become my two favorites. We need to drop Bachmann, Santorum, Huntsman, Johnson and move forward from here with only 4. Sorry, its time.

    Ok, we can keep Ron Paul for comedy relief. The rest need to go

    • Repair_Man_Jack

      It’s almost like Mitt has both a bid and an ask price. He’ll get at least 25% but no better than 40% under any scenario.

      • wennejunk

        In the general.

        I can already see an unenthused public saying

        “OK, I’ll go vote -once I finish my dinner, but it wont really make a difference in the long run over the guy in there now.

        [enjoys their pizza]

        ” Oh. Darn. look at the time. Guess I missed the closing time for the polls. Where were they anyways? Well, at least the pizza was good. Who’s on X-factor tonight?”

        • Repair_Man_Jack

          to convince anyone who is still comfortable to vote him in. I see no reason whatsoever for a Conservative to cheer on Romney.

        • http://theheartlander.wordpress.com/ heartlander

          the Obama Machine is going to be meaner, more violent, more corrupt, more outside-the-law and more ruthless than ever before. Repubs will probably have to REALLY win by a 20-point margin in order to SHOW a 5-point victory. To get that kind of turnout, the numbers of GOP volunteers pounding the pavements and manning the phones will have to beat all records. Our intensity and enthusiasm will have to be unprecedented. We will have to give the effort everything we’ve got, down to the last cent of our money and the last minute of our time.

          DOES ANYONE REALLY BELIEVE THE ACTIVISTS WHO DO ALL THOSE THINGS ARE GOING TO BE SUFFICIENTLY MOTIVATED TO GIVE THEIR ALL FOR ROMNEY???

          The question answers itself.

          • http://www.usdebateboard.com usdebateboard

            And he has no shame in hijacking the talking points of the left to do it.

    • flteng8251

      Those eyebrows were so comical during that last debate that my wife couldn’t even look at the screen when he was on.

      I didn’t even know they made eyebrow toupees.

    • eabjr

      Apparently the public is preferring Cain as many new and prominent polls have him ahead of Romney now. Funny how conservatives jump on the sales tax part of 999 as if the current system is to be preferred…funny how conservatives pile on any one who thinks outside the box, yet complain about the current field, yet end up defending them against such “bad ideas”… funny how so many are so entrenched they don’t know they are…just sayin’…

      • wennejunk

        Over Romney.

        Valid concerns have been raised here over the 999 plan. I share those, but I am willing to see it as a discussion point towards fixing our tax system.

        What I dislike about Cain are a few things he can easily fix:

        - He can start treating Romney as an opponent.
        - He can rectify the ‘I wont support Perry’ by saying ‘He’s not my preferred number one (after myself) but will get my full support if he’s the nominee’

        And a few he cannot: TARP, etc without beginning to look like Romney-lite/flip-flop.

    • http://theheartlander.wordpress.com/ heartlander

      Thad McCotter dropping out before he’d even had a chance to be in one of the debates. (They really screwed him over, not including him) When he dropped out, I was very disappointed – but after reading your comments I have to think he did the right thing.

      Of course, the big WRONG thing he did was endorse Romney when he bowed out. AAUGHH!

      • http://theheartlander.wordpress.com/ heartlander

        …since his running as a Republican is a case of false identity.

  • Ausonius

    The nonsense with the New Hampshire primary is part of Romney’s attempt – and/or the East Coast liberal GOPers – to assert the “inevitability” of a Romney nomination. Pay no attention to those gears and levers, just focus on Romney and everythiing will be just fine! :)

    Others here and elsewhere have stated that if Romney is the nominee, he will need to be forced to follow a Conservative agenda by a Conservative Republican Congress and by Tea Party pressure.

    Daniel Henninger pointed this out this morning in the Wall Street Journal.

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204002304576626851425960120.html?mod=WSJ_Opinion_LEADTop

    Otherwise, don’t expect much relief from liberalism: expect “Compassionate Conservatism 2.0″ i.e. more leftist legislation leading to ruin.

    • http://theheartlander.wordpress.com/ heartlander

      New Hampshire has an OPEN primary, i.e., Democrats get to vote for the Republican candidates!!!

      GOP is not only the Party of Stupid but the Party of Sick Masochism.

  • snowshooze

    I hope dearly that we can undo the Romney camp, He was already passed over, and I wish he would have stayed that way.
    Hopefully, Erick can attract them to his forum, and maybe get them to relax enough to come out and expand on their positions, that could be a real help.
    And, you would want to think in today’s internet society, we would be more able to bypass the MSM… but that is a hard nut to crack.
    I am in the anybody but Obama camp, but Romney will be a real nose holder…I would not enjoy having to go that route.
    Many many others could not bring themselves to do so.
    And that is Obama’s only chance.

    • http://theheartlander.wordpress.com/ heartlander

      …out here in the real world.

      I know MANY folks who would vote 3rd party if there were a viable candidate — despite grave warnings from responsible people that this would be a sure road to re-election for Obama. People are just THAT ANGRY at the establishment. Many conservatives have scarcely more affection for the GOP than they do for the Democrats.

      I consider myself an activist, but I have to admit I didn’t contribute money or volunteer time for John McCain until he nominated Sarah Palin. I’ve talked to others who say the same. Is Romney thinking he can imitate McCain by selecting someone the base likes, such as Herman Cain?

      Well, remember that as soon as McCain passed Obama in the polls and held a lead for about a week, SOMEONE (Soros, probably) engineered the run on the money markets that caused the precipitous financial crisis that buried McCain’s campaign and got Obama elected. Are people really so naive that they think the people behind Obama won’t do something even worse this time around?

      They are more than halfway to their Socialist America dream. They are NOT going to give it up now without major dirty tricks. We need to be ready for them, and to not swallow the bait. The ONLY thing that stands a chance of keeping Republicans strong in the face of what’s coming, strong enough to hang in there and work their butts of and win next year, is a candidate they can BELIEVE in and TRUST and be EXCITED about. Romney is most assuredly not that person.

      Romney would so dampen Republican enthusiasm and grassroots boots-on-the-ground involvement, that I fear the dirty Obama Machine will just steamroller right over us.

      • Ausonius

        And yes, the Dems will stop at nothing: election fraud, the most mendacious propaganda, rigging markets, you name it.

        We need to beware another October surprise, 2012 version, which could only be worse: and do not think overt violence from the Left is unthinkable next year to intimidate voters.

        Your other comment above is also on target: New Hampshire’s open primary should be suspect to begin with, along with the somewhat curious nature of the state. :)

  • Marcus_Traianus

    Should he actually be able to beat Obama, that is. In that regard, I expect top hear lot’s of “why accept a weak substitute when you can have the real thing” theme from Obama’s campaign. That and “do you really want to put Wall Street in the White House”- anything to deflect from Mr. Obama’s miserable stewardship.

    Nothing in his past suggests Romney will be anything but a tool of the establishment. In fact, his accomplishments strongly support that assertion.
    There will be no bold moves and big successes. With Boehner and McConnell he will get very few substantive, transformational deeds accomplished with Congress. Just lot’s of press conferences and self-congratulatory speeches. In the end, there will be excuses du jour about why certain issues could not be passed or resolved. He will be John McCain 2.0, with better hair. Successful at getting elected and nothing else.

    • Repair_Man_Jack

      He is nothing but a walking bag of personal ambition.

  • uncmike

    Nothing follows but x#%x&* Now, I’ve said it.

    More seriously, I don’t think the sky has yet fallen, nor has the establishment won. If so, you wouldn’t see the on-going attacks on Perry from just about every quadrant of the Beltway and beyond. As I’ve stated elsewhere on RS, most of the public still isn’t engaged in the primary season. Heck, many of them are looking for jobs or worrying about keeping the one they have. Almost all the polls are based on calls to registered voters only since, as has been explained to me, looking for “likely voters” at this point is like looking for hens’ teeth. And when we do get to the real primary season, expect your TV to be ablaze with ads designed to define the other guy (attack ads actually work), so we’ll have to see how that turns out. Bottom line is you’re answering the question: “Are we there yet by saying, yes.” I’m saying, “not yet.”

    • http://theheartlander.wordpress.com/ heartlander

      …and it’s one that Mitt happens to have – in part because he’s been AT THIS for years and years.

      Rick Perry, on the other hand, has been busy working his butt off governing one of the biggest, most significant, most ethnically diverse, most dynamic states in the Union, and doing a darn good job at it. He does not do well in these debate formats. In other, more freeform Q&A’s, though, he SHINES.

      Perry pushed for and got the most sweeping tort reforms in the nation; has proposed for and is actively pushing his plan to significantly reduce college costs; reduced air pollution in Texas by large percentages WITHOUT the EPA, then had the balls to SUE the EPA when they tried to shut down Texas industry with their preposterous CO2 regulations; helped hundreds of thousands of Hurricane Katrina refugees WITHOUT waiting around for federal help; dealt with record-breaking drought and wildfires WITHOUT federal help (because Obama decided to punish Texas out of pure spite); streamlined and reduced state regulations so that Texas is the most job-creator-friendly state in the nation; and on and on.

      I don’t mean to single out just Perry. Newt Gingrich has been busy crafting policy and influencing policymakers on everything from judiciary reform to foreign affairs. Cain has been busy running a radio show and other projects; Santorum, like Gingrich, has been making real contributions to conservative policymaking; Bachmann, of course, has been busy leading the Congressional effort against Obamacare, the Dodd-Frank bill and other socialist travesties, but especially Obamacare. (Thank you, Michele!)

      My point is that all these people have been BUSY with REAL jobs, either governing, legislating, or making substantive contributions to Republican policy. Mitt Romney ‘s been busy for years with a much lower-level order of activity: sheer politicking and self-promotion.

      WE the People want ACTIONS, NOT WORDS!

      WE the People want SUBSTANCE, NOT STYLE.

      WE the People want PROVEN RESULTS, NOT PROMISES.

      • runner12

        NT

      • uncmike

        I like your comment very much and I totally agree. Uncmike

  • justiceasking

    Wasn’t it the highest voter turnout on record?

  • romeg

    to hold some sort of primary. Everybody wants to be first which is, obviously, impossible. If the primaries were later in the election year rather than in January or even December of the year PRIOR TO the election ( a real danger this time around), then perhaps that winnowing of the less viable candidates would take place.

    Like everything about electioneering and legislating, it is akin to herding cats. It is an every man or, as here, every state for itself and not necessarily for the greater good. It is the downside of free market economics applied to the political process; a process populated by individuals with their own agendas and a willingness to see that what THEY want comes to pass.

  • JX12

    NT

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