Is the Media Inflating Trump’s Delegate Numbers?
Not so fast…Read More »
Every so often I read something and think. “No way! It can’t be this good.” A recent CNN/ORC poll showing the Presidential Race “Tied” fits into that category. The internals of the poll are shown below.
If CNN/ORC has polled credibly, then yeah verily, the race is tied. (On an artificial planet with an insidious atmosphere that strangles only Republicans.) The internals of this poll show Obama getting Dunhamed. Dunhamed by people who aren’t doing it for the first time and who won’t be doing it for any other love than love of country.
CNN constructs an Obama-compliant electorate that consists of 41% Democrats, 30% Republicans and 29% Independents. This is how they call the race a tie. Other polling firms that have made phone calls outside South Philadelphia perhaps, have differing opinions on what the Election Day turnout will look like. Rasmussen actually believes the GOP will have a 5.8% advantage on Election Day. I’m not quite ready to be that sanguine. Here’s the partisan affiliation numbers Rasmussen has gotten over 2012.
So why do I claim CNN/ORC predicts a high likelihood of Obama joining many other Americans in the unpleasant state of joblessness? I run scenarios below assuming CNN/ORC has accurately reflected the Partisan Preference Map of the Election Day electorate. The one variable I experiment with is the Partisan composition of the electorate. I do 3 Pro-Romney Scenarios ranging from Rasmussen to R+0 in electorate composition. These results follow below.
To be fair to CNN and The ORCs as well, I run 3 Pro-Obama Scenarios ranging from D+3 to CNN/ORCageddon (D+11). The only one that allows Obama to survive using the CNN/ORC Partisan Preference Map is the CNN/ORCageddon.
This brings me to an obvious point. You have a job to do if you don’t want CNN/ORCageddon tomorrow. Get yourself, your friends and all 12 of your pet goldfish to the polls tomorrow. Barack Obama will not voluntarily leave. He must be voted out. Mitt Romney 2012. That is all.