Back when Mr 29%, Charlie Crist still claimed to be a Republican, Marco Rubio made a similar quote to activists when he was going against Goliath. “Pick a better establishment.” Crist had the establishment support and Rubio just had people. People won.

The worst thing that can be done right now is for all of us to say that we’re done and go home. We need to stay active, and hold our reps feet to the fire. We need to make sure good people are elected to party leadership. We need to stay active and pay attention to the inside baseball that goes on when we are affected by it. We can not control everything, but there are a lot of things we can control with hard work and organization. A little effort can go a long way.

I don’t know how things work in all states, but here’s what we have coming up in Michigan.

1. House/Senate leadership. There’s not a lot we can do here we can do for Majority leader and speaker except to keep our ears to the ground and to call our reps and ask them to make the right decision.

2. Precinct Delegates. Here, they are an elected office chosen in the August primary election. If there are openings, those who aren’t delegates can be seated at the next convention once business is conducted. That doesn’t affect the next meeting, but the ones after that.  Precinct delegates are extremely important because they choose the party leadership.

3. County party leadership. In a couple weeks, we will have new party leadership in the county at the next county convention. There are statutory committee members (State Reps, county commissioners and elected officials) and at large executive committee members. The at-large committee members are chosen by precinct delegates. We choose our party leadership. If we have candidates whom we support/oppose, then we need to campaign for them, just like a regular election.

4. District and State Committees. There will be another county convention after the next one. This one sends delegates to the state convention which will choose state and district leadership. The state convention will caucus by congressional district.  There, district party leadership will be chosen. District committees (Which I’m on) range in activity. Some are never active outside of convention procedures, while others are very active. You’ll also have state committee positions filled. Those are extremely important to state leadership, and are not publicized. At the full meeting at the convention, the state party officers (chairs and vice-chairs, etc) are voted on by the state delegates. The RNC Committeeman and Committeewoman from our state is also chosen at the convention.

5. August Primary is in two years. If someone does a bad job, send them home. Precinct delegates are also elected at the August primary, so if you want a major say on things, make sure you vote and/or run for that position.

November may be over, but there is still plenty of things for us all to watch the end of this year, and next year. We need to make sure the Jim Greers don’t come anywhere near power again. We need to make sure that what goes on at the NRSC doesn’t happen here. That’s our job as activists and precinct delegates. We can control what we can control, and there is a lot we can actually control. We need to do our parts, or we have no business complaining.

Who knows what’s going to happen tomorrow. Here’s the current score. 0-0. All of the state level seats are up for contest, except some trustee and judicial seats.

We’re playing offense on the state house a mix of offense and defense on the state senate, as well as the statewide and congressional seats. All of the areas are important, but there are a few counties to keep an eye on for the seats in play.

1. Parts of the UP, particularly Chippewa, Mackinac, Delta, Menominee, Dickinson, and Iron Counties. Those are competitive counties, but three seats, maybe four or five if we’re super lucky, are in play up there. Dan Benishek in MI-01, Tom Casperson for State Senate in the 38th district, and possibly three state rep seats up there, although I think we have a good chance at one of them. Iron County leans slightly democrat, but Benishek is from there. Chippewa and Mackinac slightly Republican, but McDowell’s from there. The triangle of Menominee, Dickinson, and Delta counties swing the UP, and will be the biggest factor in who wins this congressional district. I think Beniskek wins this seat narrowly. 49-47-5 for 3rd parties.

2. Kent County. We have a tough defense for state senate here and a darkhorse defense for Ehlers seat. Some of the old time Kent County establishment Republicans are often “different” and are much more liberal (outside the life issue) than the average population. It’s not an accident than Kent County local government has been one of the five most anti-gun counties in the state. The establishment there is rather hostile to small l libertarianism. That is making it more difficult than the past for this defense. I think this year though was the right year for a principled libertarian-conservative like Justin Amash. He’s getting a battle in the general, although his convincing primary win sent a strong message to the establishment there. The people are in charge, not the self-proclaimed elite. I think Amash wins by 10-15% (my gut feeling, no poll evidence). It’s not Ehlers numbers, but it’ll be in line with an average top of the ticket (Snyder should do better here – 25% win there since he’ll get the Ehlers type votes as well as conservatives because of Virg). I think 08′s an aberration. I do think Amash does better in Barry and Ionia County though, than Kent County. We need a 60% win though for Johnson and Schuette.

3. Jackson County. Jackson County is what I’d classify as conservative independent. It’s important statewide. It’s populist, socially conservative, and distrustful of both big government and big business. It has both democrat strongholds (City of Jackson) and republican strongholds (Spring Arbor), but even in those strongholds, there’s a lot of independents. As Jackson County goes, usually so does the 7th Congressional district. Jackson voted against the incumbent in 2006 primary and in 2008. Can Walberg win back Jackson County? If he does, he’ll likely win. If not, Schauer will survive. There’s also two key state rep districts based in Jackson County. Those will be key if the GOP is taking back the house. 55%+ would be real good.

4. Monroe County. It’s a swing County that voted for Gore, Posthumus, Bush, Granholm, and Obama. Dingell’s won there with big margins as well. If Dr Rob Steele (best candidate in a long time) is going to upset Dingell, he’ll need to get big numbers in this part of the district, probably close to 60%. There’s also two potentially competitive state rep districts here too. It’s a must win county statewide. 53% would be real good.

5. Farmington Hills, West Bloomfield, Waterford, Royal Oak, Clawson. Those are all key in Oakland County. If Royal Oak and West Bloomfield are close (I expect them to stay dem, but to what degree), we could be looking at blowouts and you can say an early congratulations to Congressman Rocky, and one if not two new GOP state reps. If Farmington Hills and Clawson is close (if they’re going GOP, Rocky wins), it could be a long night with potential recounts, but promising results for Rocky (he’ll need big help from Troy then). If Waterford is more populist and close, but has trended GOP lately outside of the 06/08 disasters. I’d like to see a win in Farmington Hills, 46%+ in West Bloomfield, 54%+ in Waterford, 46%+ in Royal Oak, and a win in Clawson. I think any of those will assure a pickup.

6. Sterling Heights, Clinton Township, St Clair Shores. Those are three of the key areas in Macomb County. Those will determine who wins Macomb County overall, and in Clinton Twp’s case, probably who’ll take the state. There’s three, maybe four if lucky, competitive state rep districts there. There’s a fifth competitive seat in North Macomb that was lost in the 2008 clustermuck (Despite McCain winning the district). That one should be ours. I’d like to see 53%+ in S. Heights, and a win of any margin in Clinton Township and St Clair Shores

7. Lake Michigan Coast – Can we stop the 06/08 bleeding there. If so, bye Dan Scripps. Those should be 54%+ GOP counties from Oceana up to Leelanau. Benzie’s the toughest.

8. Thumb, especially Tuscola and Huron Counties – This conservative populist area is extremely independent and loyal to no party. Even some 60% GOP areas at the top of the ticket will ticket split. Sanillac County’s rep should flip with locally popular Espinoza termed out. Mike Green is the best candidate for the state senate district. He’ll have to rack up big numbers in the thumb to counter Bay County, home of the populist socially moderate democrats. Green (best) can exceed Mayes (good) on the gun issue, and he’s also carried a union card. This may be a pickup. We may take Terry Brown’s seat as well, although that won’t be easy. Like the sunrise coast and the UP, the top of the ticket doesn’t tell the story here.

9. Western/Southernmost Wayne County. Two state senate seats and three state rep seats are up for grabs. Keep an eye on Canton Twp (Swings), Van Buren Twp (Dem leaning), Plymouth (city swings, Twp GOP), Northville, Wayne (dem, but by how much), Westland (dem, by how much), Garden City (dem, by how much) Livonia (slight GOP lean), Trenton (slight dem), Huron Twp (swing) and Gibraltar (slight dem). If any of those “dem by how much” areas are close or slight dem areas flipping, there will be some pickups. I’d like to see 54%+ in Canton, any win in Van Buren Twp, 60%+ in Plymouth Twp, 52%+ in Plymouth City, 60%+ in Northville, 42%+ in Wayne, 43%+ in Westland, 48%+ in Garden City, 55%+ in Livonia, any win in Trenton, 52%+ in Huron Twp, and any win in Gibralter.

10. Sunrise Coast – There’s a string of swing counties from Presque Isle and Alpena down the Lake Huron Coast and over to the Saginaw Bay/West Branch area. Clare and Roscommon Counties aren’t part of this area geographically, but are attached to the state rep districts here and are similar in politics. Populist. We have a tough defense (Tim Moore’s open seat) and a longshot (due to the Sheltrown name) pickup opportunity here, along with the Alpena based open seat that’s been close but democrat for several years. There’s a darkhorse defense for state senate as well that I’m not ready to put in the safe column yet.

11. Isabella County. Probably on paper, our toughest state rep defense. Mt Pleasant is soldly dem, and the surrounding area is marginally republican. Any win in Isabella County is a positive. Rural Midland gives us a small cushion to work with for the state rep district.

12. Rural Washtenaw County. Implications for Tim Walberg, Dr Rob Steele, and an open state rep seat which is a tough offense. The swing townships in Walberg’s district are Northfield, Manchester, Saline (city), Sylvan, and Dexter. Scio is a democrat stronghold, and Salem a Republican one. If the swing areas go our way along with big numbers in Manchester (or losses cut in Scio Twp), we have a shot at picking up the Byrnes seat, along with a sure thing with the Walberg seat as this is his weaker area.

13. Eaton County – Very difficult to read. Blue steak in 02, 06, and 08, but a red streak in 2004. A lot of state workers live here, although it’s much more conservative socially than Ingham County next door. However, it’s got a strong labor streak. The state rep district is a potentially tough defense, and Walberg’s economic libertarianism didn’t sell here twice, although his social views are more of a positive here outside of maybe Delta Township. This will be interesting to watch.

14. Van Buren County – Classic Swing County with state rep, state senate, and statewide implications. Must win for all of them.

15. Saginaw, Bay, Clinton, St Clair, Counties. If democrats lose Saginaw and Bay Counties (Dem lean, not overwhelmingly so), it’s over before it starts. If the GOP loses Clinton and St Clair Counties (GOP lean, not overwhelmingly so), it’s over before it starts.

As many know, I’m a Michigan State grad and fan. One of my favorite moments was how a calm but angry Coach Mark Dantonio defiantly took on all comers in the press conference after the MSU loss to Michigan in 2007. This loss happens to be his last loss to Michigan. Go State.

I don’t know Coach Dantonio’s politics and I don’t care what they happen to be. His press conference provides good lessons to politicians of all stripes. Republicans should have heeded it in 2004, and the democrats should have heeded it in 2008. Some quotes from his press conference are these.

“They need to check themselves sometimes.”
“Let’s just remember pride comes before the fall”
“They want to mock us. I’m telling them. It’s not over.”
“It’s not over, and it’ll never be over here”
“It’s just starting”
“They want to make a mockery of it. Their time will come.”

After seeing the arrogance and sneering of Obama, Congress, Jon Stewart, Joy Behar, Keith Olbermann, The NY Times, Thomas Frank, the chattering classes, and the like against grass roots opposition to their big government agenda, those thoughts kept running in my head, looking for the next payback opportunity. Those people need to lose. Those people need to be humbled. I had a lot of problems with Bush, but the best part about his re-election was John Kerry and the “gentry liberal” class losing. The only thing worse than their policies is the combination of arrogance and ignorance from the so called elites. In their minds, they know what is best for us. They don’t. We do. They want to mock us. It’s not over. It’ll never be over. Pride comes before the fall.

It looks like we’re going to win big in 2010. Wrong. We don’t know. The decision hasn’t been made yet. Pride comes before the fall and we need to check ourselves. We haven’t won anything.

Most polls say that 50 or more seats will be taken over by the GOP in Congress. I’ve heard we’re leading in 63 or more seats in the state house. The most optimistic say 100 Federal House seats are in play and even the senate could be taken over.

Wrong. We’re leading in nothing. The democrats are leading in nothing. Polls are one of two things.

1. Incorrect.
2. If they are correct, they are based on a snapshot in time of the opinions of the electorate in a given area give or take a few percent. They may chance before election day.

In the US Senate, we are at 38 Democrats and 23 Republicans, needing to win 28 seats for a takeover.

In the US House, State House, and State Senate, we are at 0 Democrats and 0 Republicans.

For Governor, we have 0 votes for Snyder and 0 for Bernero. For Secretary of State, 0 for Johnson and Benson. For our districts here, 0 votes for Joe Hune, Chuck Fellows, Cindy Denby, Garry Post, Bill Rogers, and James Delcamp. For the county commission, it’s 0-0.

I can go down the list. You don’t win if you don’t show up. In 1990, John Engler was trailing by 12% before the election. He won. In 1994, Mario Cuomo was up in polls on election day. He lost. Afternoon turnout did him in.

We need to make sure we vote (or have voted), get fellow supporters to vote, and we need to make sure elections are conducted with integrity and to guard against vote fraud as election challengers.

No celebrations until the election is over. After that comes the 24 hour rule, and we need to get to work holding the feet to the fire and make sure the new republicans (hopefully) don’t screw things up like the democrats did and that we are on a road of less government and more freedom. It’s not over. It’s just starting.

It was a long, long, long, long, day today. I didn’t get much (any) sleep for today, so this may come off as a little ornery. Today was the Republican convention. It was a little different than most conventions and probably has the most contentious floor fights since a couple of the Youth Chair fights a few years back.

The nominees are as follows:

Lt Governor – Brian Calley
UM Regents – Andrea Fischer Newman and Andrew Richner (Uncontested)
Wayne State Trustee – Danialle Karmanos and Diane Dunaskiss (Uncontested)
MSU Trustee – Mitch Lyons and Brian Breslin
State Board of Education – Dr. Richard Zeile and Eileen Weiser (Uncontested)
Supreme Court – Justice Robert Young and Judge Mary Beth Kelly
Attorney General – Bill Schuette
Secretary of State – Ruth Johnson

The first sign that this wasn’t going to be an average convention is the rumors and hype about what the rules were going to be, etc. Much of that was yesterday. I was asked to be alternate for the rules committee. If I was voting on changes or potential changes to the rules, I wanted to know what the facts were and not what the hype was. I was not elevated to being on the committee, and based on what I found out, I’m kind of glad I wasn’t because I was going to be dodging a bunch of arrows no matter what I did. I left when that committee started because I heard there was rumor of possible 8th district caucus beforehand, and with at least three high ranking 8th district committee members tied up in the rules meeting, I wanted to make sure I was ready if needed for votes as I’m an officer on 8th district. I didn’t stay in the rules meeting for the whole thing, but I know the proposed changes failed on a close vote. I was opening to altering one rule, and was completely against altering most of them. One alarming rumored rules proposal was straight out of the union. No secret ballot. That was a problem in the past, and I’m glad that we have had a secret ballot for the last couple conventions. It needs to stay, and I will be raising hell here if that ever changes. More on the rules later.

My biggest complaint was the lines. I knew this was going to be a tough convention because there are a lot of new people with tea parties, longtime local activists who now were going statewide, and the longtime activists and normal factions who were there. We knew there was going to be a high turnout. That’s part of the reason why this was at the Breslin Center. However, there should not be hour+ lines going on to start the convention. That’s going to put people in a foul mood to begin with. I understand the need for security, but there should have at least been multiple lines (A-L/M-Z etc), or credentials mailed. That would have saved at least 2-3 hours today.

The first interesting battle was over Lt Governor. The West Michigan Tea Party faction opposed Brian Calley as Snyder’s pick, or wanted to send a message of some sort and wanted Bill Cooper, who ran for Congress in the 2nd District, to be the Lt Governor. The big battle was over the voting process on this. The party wanted a show of hands. The tea party wanted roll call. It was getting very contentious until Cooper withdrew from the race and gave his speech. It was a good speech, and if there is a lesson to learn from that, it is to learn the processes of conventions, its rules, how the committee members are selected and elected, and how they are changed. This is a marathon, not a sprint. Personally for this race, I’d like to have seen this go to a secret ballot vote with the others which were on there, even using “candidate A and Candidate B” ballots. It could have been done that way. The raise of hands votes can be shady at times. Oral roll call would have taken 10 hours and I would have staunchly opposed that. I know traditionally that the Governor candidate historically picks the LT candidate which is almost always confirmed easily, but there needs to be preparation when the gubernatorial candidate gets 35% in the primary. I didn’t have a problem with Calley, especially when some of the other names I’ve been hearing were much, much, worse. However, there is a virulent backlash against anything these days that comes off as old boys club, whether it is or not.

After that start, there was a bunch of uncontested races that were uneventful. I was waiting for one to have some possible headaches, but that didn’t happen.

Then came the contests. Most were done right. Two of them were one on one. Winner wins. That’s how the AG and Supreme Court races were. The Supreme Court race was civil with Mary Beth Kelly winning easily with the support of the justices of what used to be considered the best State Supreme Court in the country. The AG race was for awhile, but I think Bill Schuette nearly lost what was at one time a massive lead when his camp drew first blood and went negative through a surrogate (when there was an extremely negative SoS campaign). I expected better from him. I like both Schuette and Bishop and can easily vote for either of them this fall. Schuette won in a very close race, and will be facing Genesee (Flint) County Prosecutor. Judge Schuette v Prosecutor Leyton. It should be an interesting race.

One major contentious race was MSU trustee. It turned out the way the rules were set up worked better for the candidate opposed by many of the establishment anyway. They wanted all candidates up with people voting for the top two of the three. The way the rules were set up split the MSU trustee seats. These were rules from either February or last year. They’ve been there for awhile. I didn’t like this particular one, but the process should have been set then, not today. Anyway, it wasn’t the way I was concerned it would be. I was concerned that incumbent Don Nugent, whom I did not support due to tuition increases and too much of a willingness to go along with the more liberal decisions of the board, would be getting a free pass. Nugent was openly supported by most of the state party due to being an incumbent. It turned out that Nugent did not get a free pass. He announced his re-election for what was classified as either “seat A” or “seat B”. I’m not sure which was which. Breslin ran for the seat currently held by democrat Colleen McNamara (Airport Ed McNamara’s daughter). Lyons ran as well and had to choose one seat or the other. He chose, whether planned or not, Nugent’s seat. Breslin got the pass. Going into the convention, I thought it was going to be vote for two out of the three. That’s how it should have been, just like the November ballot. For me, at least I could have done that in that I could vote for both Breslin and Lyons as planned.

What really riled up the crowd was when one individual introduced a motion. That was poorly handled, and may have actually contributed to costing Nugent his trustee position. The motion was combining the two seats and having the top two of the three candidates moving on the ballot, just as we vote for two candidates in the November election. The parliamentarian said that the motion was for Mitch Lyons to run on two ballots, once against Breslin, and once against Nugent. That was not the motion. Not at all. That could have been explained better through the rules and procedures that they were not allowed to do things as stated in the motion and that the alternative allowed under the rules that had to be approved before convention only allowed this instead. Do you still support this motion? That really riled up the crowed and looked like incumbent protection to many of the newcomers there, as well as some of the old guard who were not procedure junkies. The vote came in, and Lyons won. It wasn’t even all that close.

There was contention of the Secretary of State race procedures. Some wanted multiple votes where the last place candidate dropped out. The rules stated two votes. The highest two vote-getters run off Southern Style for the winner (unless one gets 51%). I happen to support the current rules in place for this race, else we’d be there all night. Runoff system works great here. It worked well here, and it was fair.

It was an interesting convention, and it foreshadows the future and what we as activists need to prepare for AFTER the November elections. Bill Cooper hinted at this to his tea party supporters. Those who are tea party activists, long time republican activists who aren’t tea party, establishment supporters, and your classic convention unpredictable swing voter like me need to know how things work. Marco Rubio said it best in Florida when he was battling RINO Charlie Crist, then supported by Florida’s state party. If you don’t like the job the establishment is doing, pick a better establishment.

We as republicans choose our establishment. My own view on establishment is this. When they are right, I support them. When they are wrong, I don’t. Today they were both. They were dead right in the Secretary of State race, and dead wrong in their quasi semi-official support of Don Nugent (whom the majority believed did not deserve re-election). Regardless of that, the establishment is elected. That goes for State Party, down to county party.

Precinct delegates make the decision. Their number one job is to choose party leadership. They(we) need to be informed in what goes on. That means they need to show up at meetings. They need to show up at conventions. They need to know who is running for the party positions, and make informed decisions as to who they support.

All Precinct Delegates go to county conventions. County Conventions choose the county executive committee. I happen to think that Livingston County’s executive committee, the “establishment” here does a pretty good job. The county conventions choose delegates to different state conventions. After the election, there will be a state convention for party leadership. Those delegates chosen go to state convention and caucus with congressional district. This chooses our district committee. Until this current term, the 8th district committee was just a bunch of fancy titles that didn’t do jack squat outside of procedures at state. This term, we’ve built the committee from nearly scratch and it will be a player in some races this fall.

It is also at these conventions were state committee is chosen (outside of county/district chairs – which are also elected by delegates). This is the big one. State Committee. There’s also state party officers – chair and vice-chair which are also elected by state delegates.

Know the processes. Know how things work. Work through the processes to create good change when needed, and prevent bad change (Ie, the Hamburg problem spreading to the county party) when it isn’t needed. Prior planning prevents piss poor performance. That goes for everybody. Establishment. Tea Party. Candidates. Delegates.

I wrote a long column on Michigan’s 1st district back in April . It’s a district unlike any other in this country. It’s a district pundits pretend to understand, but are clueless about.

It is a conservative, but not republican district. It takes the right kind of Republican to win there, and if it has any leaning, is “conservative democrat” for one with populist, pro-life, pro-gun, and pro-labor reputation. Gary McDowell is a strong democrat candidate and is unopposed in the primary, so whoever gets the nomination needs to be ready for a battle.

Right now, one vote separates Benishek and Allen. This is good news for one person. Gary McDowell. Recounts take time and cost a lot of money. If you have extra, send it to your candidate’s campaign. The cost of recount go to the campaigns in Michigan, if they choose to have them.

This district can be separated into three parts for this race. Allen’s State Senate district, the Northern Lower Peninsula outside of Allen’s District, and most of the UP. This race was touted as a one on one race, but it really a six way primary. Two candidates were “trolls” and four candidates were “yoopers.” For those who don’t know, a troll lives below the Mackinac Bridge. A yooper is from the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. A “Trooper” is a troll who moves to the UP. While “troll” is not an insulting term in this sense, it does matter in politics. Trolls will vote for yoopers, but yoopers rarely vote for trolls. You’ll notice this in the results here.

The candidates are:

Dan Benishek – A doctor from Crystal Falls in Iron County. (Yooper)
Jason Allen – A state senator who moved from Traverse City to Emmet County (Troll)
Tom Stillings – A township trustee and activist from Eastport/Torch Lake in Antrim County (Troll)
Linda Goldthorpe – A frequent candidate and attorney from McMillan in Luce County. (Yooper)
Don Hooper – A frequent candidate from Iron River (Yooper) in Iron County.
Patrick Donlon – A candidate from St Ignace in Mackinac County (Yooper)

Yoopers took 54% of the vote. Trolls took 45% of the vote.
Benishek – 38.12% – leading by one vote before possible recount.
Allen – 38.12% – trailing by one vote before possible recount.
Stillings – 7.63%
Goldthorpe – 7.03%
Hooper – 5.59%
Donlon – 3.57%

Stillings probably hurt Allen in most areas, but Benishek in others. Hooper hurt Benishek badly. Goldthorpe and Donlon probably damaged both sides. It’s really hard to tell who took votes from whom, especially in Stillings case. Stillings was from Allen’s geographic base, but ideologically damaged Benishek.

The first area is Allen’s State Senate district. As expected, Jason Allen was strong here, winning every county, including his usually difficult Presque Isle County which voted for his democrat opponent in the past. There are seven counties here, three (Emmet, Antrim, Charlevoix) of which are in Northwestern Lower Michigan, two in Northeastern Lower Michigan (Cheboygan, Presque Isle), and two of which are in the Eastern UP (Mackinac and Chippewa). The Northwestern Lower counties are base republican counties. The Northeastern ones are competitive, as are the UP counties. Interesting, this is also Gary McDowell’s district. He is from Chippewa County and is the state rep from this area. This state senate district has been republican for a long time, at least since 94, maybe earlier. The state rep district that covered the parts of the UP here voted for both republicans and democrats. Chippewa and Mackinac counties are historically the two most republican areas in the UP, compared to the rest of the area. The UP as a whole is competitive today and ticket-splits. It goes democrat locally and state, but leans slightly republican federally outside of Stupak. Mackinac and Chippewa Counties are also more willing to vote for trolls than in the past. Allen showed some strength there.

Here’s Allen’s State Senate district:

Allen whopped Benishek here, and won every county. Benishek was strongest in Presque Isle, which voted for Allen’s democrat opponent in 06. Benishek was stronger in Cheboygan and Mackinac than other areas, but surprising weak in Chippewa County.

Of the rest of the pack:
Surprising Patrick Donlon didn’t do well in his home base (Mackinac County). His best area was actually near Standish.
Don Hooper was not strong in the Eastern UP. His base is in the Western UP, 200+ miles away.
Linda Goldthorpe is from Luce County, next to Chippewa and Mackinac. She pulled 11% in Mackinac County.
Tom Stillings pulled 16% in his home county of Antrim, and 12% in neighboring Charlevoix county. Those 1350 votes are significant considering the margin of victory in this race.

The Western UP is further away from Allen’s district and is much more hostile to trolls. Benishek was strongest here and it wasn’t close.

Allen won Alger County. I don’t know the reason, although it could be crossovers. Alger is one of the most democrat counties in the UP, but not like Marquette or Gogebic, which voted for Benishek. Luce County, next door to the east, voted for Benishek over Allen, despite its neighbors Chippewa and Mackinac Counties. Luce isn’t part of Allen’s district.

Benishek’s from Iron County, but more Republican Dickinson County next door was his best area. 71.58%. The western UP is his primary stronghold. Can he repeat this against McDowell? The Central/Western UP, particulary Marquette, Gogebic and Iron Counties are more democrat. Houghton is more Republican. The numbers in Houghton, Dickinson, Menominee, and Delta are encouraging.

Of the rest of the pack:

Goldthorpe took 20% in Luce County and 14% in Schoolcraft County.

Hooper took between 9% and 17% in 8 counties, most of which were in both Hooper and Benishek’s home territory. Hooper and Benishek are both from Iron county.

Tom Stillings grabbed 13% in Ontonagon County. He must have had a big event there or something because that’s an outlier.

With the home bases decided, that made the Northern Lower Peninsula outside of Allen’s district the decider. Allen won the area, but by a narrow margin. Interesting, Alpena once again voted against the Lake Michigan Coast. Benishek won there.  Allen did best in the areas influenced by his district. Traverse City media has a lot of simulcasted stations, often in Cheboygan and the Soo.  Crawford, Montmorency, and Otsego are influenced by the Traverse City area. The rest of the area is not, and that meant narrower wins and split votes that benefited Benishek.

Of the rest of the pack:

Goldthorpe took 10%+ in 7 districts. There a significant Ron Paul ideology in much of this district. Goldthorpe would do well there. Rugged individualism and America first plays well in these parts.

Donlon took 9% in the Bay County portion of the district (not including Bay City).

Hooper did fairly well (8%+) in Arenac, Gladwin, and Bay for someone 400 miles away.  Those were his best areas outside of the Western UP.

Stillings took 10% in Crawford, Iosco, and Otsego Counties. Iosco is an outlier, the other two are not.  Stillings did not do bad outside of his NW base in lower Michigan however with the exception of Alpena. He probably hurt Allen in Crawford/Otsego, but Benishek elsewhere.

Of that part of the district, Otsego, Montmorency, Oscoda, and to a lesser extent Crawford are base counties. Alpena, Arenac, and Bay lean democrat. Alcona leans our way.  Ogemaw, Iosco and Gladwin are swing counties. The southern part of this area, along with Alpena (Democrat state rep for about 15 years) have a significant labor population of union retirees and corrections workers. Ogemaw, Iosco, and the Gladwin area have been largely represented by a democrat state rep for 16 years. They prefer social conservative democrats.

This entire district is populist to an extent outside of the Lake Michigan coast. Almost all of the district leans pro-life and pro-gun. Labor however is strong. This will be a tough pickup test for the GOP, based on McDowell’s strength and geographical advantage. Benishek can neutralize some of the UP strength. Allen can bring big numbers from his Antrim/Emmet/Otsego base. Will either be enough. We’ll find out in November.

It’s no secret who I’ve voted for this primary. Mike Cox. I have my positives and negatives on all the candidates who are running, except there is one candidate who I hope loses this August. Rick Snyder. I’m not sure I can even support him in November. That is how much I am against Rick Snyder. I will have a real tough time being able to vote for him due to his economic liberal ties, social liberalism, failure to answer questions without being evasive, and most of all his outsourcing of jobs away from America. I won’t vote for Dillon or Bernero, nor any BSTP candidate, but Rick hasn’t earned a general election vote from me, even by lesser of two evil standards. I don’t like Bernero or Dillon’s politics, but I don’t have the same personal dislike for them that I did with John Kerry or Barack Obama and their uber arrogance and elitism. Personally, I like Dillon from the few times I’ve met him. I never met Bernero, but I like how he’s unafraid to take a stand. I respect that, even if I disagree. Dillon’s at least somewhat pro-life and somewhat pro-2nd Amendment. That gives me more of a conscience to leave the race blank since I don’t find much difference between Rick Michigan and Dillon on other issues. Bernero’s to his left, but at least he’s against outsourcing. Rick’s got work to do to earn my general election vote.

Normally, Rick Michigan would not be a threat. However, with a five way primary, we could have a repeat of Joe Schwarz. If one of the conservative campaign ran away with this in the primary, this would not be a problem. The main reason RTL and the Chamber endorsed Mike Cox is likely because Cox won statewide twice, was a conservative, is not afraid to make tough decisions, and was leading in many of the polls. The other reason is to stop Rick Michigan. It’s close, and here’s the latest poll from WXYZ.

From WXYZ.com

An exclusive WXYZ – Detroit Free Press poll conducted by EPIC MRA for its statewide media partners has Snyder ahead by 2 points with 26 percent of the vote. Cox is in second place with 24 percent followed by Hoekstra with 23 percent. Oakland County Sheriff Michael Bouchard is in fourth place with 10 percent and State Senator Tom George of Kalamazoo is last with 1 percent. Fourteen percent are undecided.

I don’t know accurate that poll is, but I’ve seen the large split before. 2004. Schwarz, DeWeese (now a democrat), Bisbee, Walberg, DeRossett, and Smith. That was my concern then, and that’s my concern now with Rick Michigan taking the role of Joe Schwarz and Cox, Bouchard, Hoekstra, and George taking the spots of the rest of them.

Unfortunately, I don’t think Rick Snyder has been effectively vetted. If he was, this wouldn’t be close, even with the five way split. These are the reasons why I can not support Rick Michigan, who as far as I’m concerned is more of the mealy mouthed Jennifer Granholm, Ken Sikkema, Rick Johnson establishment type of Lansing problem running as an outsider.

Reasons:

Outsourcing. Rick Snyder is an outsourcer. This is Michigan. This is a manufacturing state. I know that we need to diversify our economy, but that does not mean we throw manufacturing under the bus. Our jobs belong here and not China. Gateway Computers, under Rick Snyder’s leadership at Chairman, sent jobs to China and Mexico. That’s an indisputable fact. I have picture proof of the outsourcing from a 1996 or 1997 Gateway, which was created during the time of Rick Snyder being the president. I go into more details of his outsourcing here which also has the pictures.

Even if you are a supporter of outsourcing, something I despise, you do not want to support Rick Snyder. Outsourcers do not do well in Michigan. It is the ultimate sin in politics. NAFTA, GATT, and Most favored nation trade status in China. Just the rumor of outsourcing was a major factor in the defeat of Dick DeVos. With Rick Michigan, it’s not rumor, it’s fact, and combine that with social conservatives not liking him very much. Rick Snyder will lose in November. I know what the poll says now, but who will vote for a jobs-killer? Virg Bernero will have a field day against this guy.

Life – That’s a big issue to me. Rick Snyder is not pro-life. He dumped $20,000 supporting proposition 2 which promotes research of human embryoes, and outlaws discouraging of it, whichever that means.

Rick Michigan did not sign a no tax pledge.

Rick Michigan supports racial preferences and opposed the Michigan Civil Rights Initiative.

Questionable supporters – Joe Schwarz is well known for being pro-abortion, pro-embryo research, a gun grabber, and a RINO (supporting Mark Schauer, a yesman for Obama in Congress). Bill Milliken, another RINO, supported Obama, Granholm, and John Kerry, and is the most pro-abortion (tax funded), anti-hunting, and anti-2nd Amendment governor in Michigan history. I rarely use the term RINO anymore and safe it for those who support democrats. Schwarz and Milliken qualify. Milliken gave us the Single Business Tax and lead Michigan through its last exodus. No thanks.

Center for Michigan – That was created as opposition to the fiscal conservative Mackinac Center. Phil Power, former owner of the Livingston County Press/Hometown Newspapers runs the show. Power’s a longtime democrat (although supported Joe Schwarz republicans too) and supported several tax increases in his editorials. Others at the Center for Michigan include fiscal liberals and ex-politicians like Bill Milliken, Doug Ross, Paul Hillegonds, (Detroit Renaissance/Business Leaders for Michigan – and its services tax), and Joe Schwarz.

Snyder was the first MEDC chair. Government picking winners and losers. Snyder’s company received millions from MEDC.

What plan? Most of his plan presented was powerpoint style fluff. It’s good for talking points, but does not have details. That contrasts to Mike Cox who has detailed plans on his website.

Lemons – Last but not least, my 1998 Gateway was an expensive piece of junk that went through three motherboards and two hard drives. I haven’t gone back to them and do not plan to do so.

We need to stop Rick Snyder during this primary. Right now if the polls are to be believed, Mike Cox has the best chance to stop him. One thing I can say is that I know what Mike’s going to do. He made his promises to me as AG regarding 2nd Amendment issues and kept them. He was not afraid to take a stand on MCRI or life issues. He was not afraid to take a stand on economic issues regarding taxes and spending. He’s walked the walk besides talking the talk and has my support.

FYI to all on Redstate. This was Cross Posted on Right Michigan and my blog. It applies mostly to Michigan, but there’s a good chance your state is targeted as well. A organized group of far leftists are trying to take all secretary of state positions in this country.

In 2010, The Secretary of State Project is so far targeting Michigan, California, Iowa, South Dakota, Ohio, and Minnesota. This post is Michigan specific, but look at the list of donors to a state level Michigan downticket race. Chances are this is happening in your state too.

You know, comrades,” says Stalin, “that I think in regard to this: I consider it completely unimportant who in the party will vote, or how; but what is extraordinarily important is this — who will count the votes, and how. – Boris Bazhanov’s Memoirs of Stalin’s Former Secretary

As long as I count the votes, what are you going to do about it? – Boss Tweed

—————————————————————————————————

Some of the most overlooked and ultra important positions in this state are those who run the elections. Those are the County Clerk, Township/City Clerk, and the Secretary of State’s office. It takes the work of these offices and their staffs to run the elections and make sure the process is above board, competent,and with integrity. Livingston County does a great job with its Bureau of Elections. While these positions shouldn’t be politicized, at least when it comes to elections, they are in a big way, and this politicization is coming to Michigan.

Some people don’t like it when their boys don’t make the rules of the game. First and foremost is the benefactor of the democrats, convicted insider trader George Soros, the man who broke the Bank of England. Much like his counterparts at Goldman Sachs, he makes a killing off of speculating, and what better way of doing that than by controlling elections.Other rich leftist democrats also wanted to get their people elected in their attempt to control our lives.

There project is called the Secretary of State Project. It’s goal is to get their type of democrats in charge, and then look the other way when ACORN and PIRG to commit voter fraud rigging the election for the democrats.

They had some success in 2006, setting up for 2008. Jennifer Brunner, now running for senate in Ohio, and Mark Ritchie in Minnesota.

Foxnews:

Since 2006 the Democracy Alliance, a left leaning influence group funded by George Soros among others, has had remarkable success in targeting and claiming Secretary of State’s offices in 11 of 13 critical states they targeted, including Ohio, Minnesota and Iowa.

Called the Secretary of State Project (SOSP) its aim is to target and capture the obscure, often overlooked office and implement election rules changes that give democrats a better chance of winning a plurality. Among those changes that SOSP calls “election protection,” are a loosening of voter registration requirements and a lessening of efforts to prevent fraudulent voting, according to Matthew Vadum, a political analyst with the Capitol Research Center.

‘The thing that is amazing is that they can get the office for as little $100,000 in campaign funding because no one pays attention to it, and they get to control election opportunities in a state. It is cheap,” Vadum said.
He said SOSP is currently targeting three states in the 2010 election: California, Michigan and Minnesota. In total they count for 82 electoral votes.

Vadum says that because of chaos and demoralization the Republican Party has not formulated a response to the SOSP or tried to match their efforts.

Brunner has been a disaster in Ohio, unless you are trying to rig the game for the dems. There was tons of shadiness in Ohio for the 2008 election. The good news about Brunner is that she’s running for US Senate where she can do less damage, even if she wins.

Frontpage Mag:

Brunner made news in October 2008 when she declined to hand over to county election boards 200,000 names on voter registration forms where the drivers license or Social Security number on the forms did not match the name. The SoS project praised her actions.

Foxnews source coinsides with Frontpage:

Blackwell’s office was one of the first and most critical offices claimed by SOSP. He was succeeded in 2006 by Jennifer Bruner, who received $167,000 in campaign contributions from SOSP, and immediately began a complete overhaul of Ohio’s voting system. Among the changes she made were allowing election day registration and the failure to purge election rolls of ineligible and dead voters.
Her most memorable moment was when a federal court judge ruled that she had violated federal law for “not taking adequate steps to validate the identity of newly registered voters.” At the time she admitted that there were “discrepancies” in about 200,000 new registrations but refused to allow polling workers to take action on the questionable ballots.

One of the watchdogs, followed Brunner’s shenanigans closely. From Discovering the Networks.

When Jennifer Brunner defeated incumbent Kenneth Blackwell in Ohio in 2006, twelve of the eighteen individuals who contributed the maximum $10,000 to Brunner’s campaign resided in states other than Ohio. (One of those donors, incidentally, was Teresa Heinz Kerry.) Said Brunner, “I received significant support from the SoS Project, which helped me toward the election.”

Brunner went on to make her influence felt in the 2008 election cycle, when she ruled that Ohio residents should be permitted, during the designated early-voting period extending from late September to early October, to register and vote on the very same day. Citing the potential for voter fraud under such an arrangement, Republicans objected. But on September 29 of that year — the day before early voting was scheduled to commence — the Ohio Supreme Court affirmed Brunner’s decision.

In a separate matter, Brunner sought to effectively invalidate a million absentee-ballot applications that Republican presidential candidate John McCain’s campaign had issued. Each of those applications had been inadvertently printed with an extra, unnecessary checkbox, and Brunner maintained that if a registrant failed to check the box — even if he or she signed the form — the application could be rejected. On October 2, the Ohio Supreme Court overturned Brunner’s directive on grounds that it served “no vital purpose or public interest.”

Brunner’s most noteworthy claim to fame took place in October 2008, when she refused to provide county election boards approximately 200,000 voter-registration forms in which the name did not match the driver’s license or Social Security number.

Count the dems, and reject the GOP votes. Boss Tweed would be proud. That’s what the Sec of State Project wanted, and what they got.

Mark Ritchie was the Secretary of State who certified Al Franken’s win on a recount. He was a Sec of State Project candidate and here’s the result.

Foxnews:

(Mary) Kiffmeyer is “absolutely sure” that Ritchie’s efforts to eliminate voting regulations ensured Franken’s victory.
“The first thing he did when he got into office was to dismantle the ballot reconciliation program we started. Under that program districts are required to check that the number of ballots issued by matching them with the number of ballots cast,” she said, “that way we know immediately that the vote count is accurate.”
But that isn’t what happened, she said. We now have 17,000 more ballots cast than there are voters who voted and no way to determine what went wrong. Why anyone would eliminate that basic check, I don’t know,” she said.

The Vadum guy quoted earlier was Matthew Vadum. He’s one of the main guys at Capitol Research, a good organization has tracked the shadiness of these foundations and similar groups for years. He wrote a good piece in the American Spectator about the Franken-Coleman race and its Secretary of State.

Both Franken and Obama, by the way, were endorsed by ACORN Votes, ACORN’s federal political action committee.

Minnesota’s secretary of state isn’t a Democrat by happenstance.

Ritchie, who defeated two-term incumbent Republican Mary Kiffmeyer in 2006, received an endorsement and financial assistance for his run from a below-the-radar non-federal “527″ group called the Secretary of State Project. The entity can accept unlimited financial contributions and doesn’t have to disclose them publicly until well after the election.

The founders of the Secretary of State Project, which claims to advance “election protection” but only backs Democrats, religiously believe that right-leaning secretaries of state helped the GOP steal the presidential elections in Florida in 2000 (Katherine Harris) and in Ohio in 2004 (Ken Blackwell).

The secretary of state candidates the group endorses sing the same familiar song about electoral integrity issues: Voter fraud is largely a myth, vote suppression is used widely by Republicans, cleansing the dead and fictional characters from voter rolls should be avoided until embarrassing media reports emerge, and anyone who demands that a voter produce photo identification before pulling the lever is a racist, democracy-hating Fascist.

……

Most media reports also leave out the fact that Ritchie has extensive ties to the controversial in-your-face direct action group, ACORN (Association of Community Organizations for Reform Now), whose employees have been implicated in electoral fraud time and time again.

In 2006, the Minnesota ACORN Political Action Committee endorsed Ritchie and donated to his campaign. According to the Minnesota Campaign Finance and Public Disclosure Board, contributors to Ritchie’s campaign included liberal philanthropists George Soros, Drummond Pike, and Deborah Rappaport, along with veteran community organizer Heather Booth, a Saul Alinsky disciple who co-founded the Midwest Academy, a radical ACORN clone. One article on Ritchie’s 2006 campaign website brags about the fine work ACORN did in Florida to pass a constitutional amendment to raise that state’s minimum wage.

ACORN got their man in. Their man made sure Stuart Smalley became a senator. The good news is that Mark Ritchie is running for re-election in Minnesota. Hopefully, the good people there throw his sorry ass out.

But closer to home, the Secretary of State Project wants their own Mark Ritchie or Jennifer Brunner right here in Michigan. Her name is Jocelyn Benson. What are Benson’s credentials?

Benson’s a native of Philly, well known for vote fraud. She went to Harvard Law. I’ve seen enough damage done by Harvard Law politicians like Obama and Granholm to refuse to back anyone who went there for political office. In 2004, for the democrats, she ran the poll challenging/poll watching programs for the DNC. They want the fox guarding the henhouse. She’s also a protege of Jennifer Brunner.Yes, that Brunner. She was recently endorsed (before dems convention) by the SEIU, the most far left of the union leadership.

The Blog Prof has been on the case researching Benson with posts here and here.

In order to ensure that elections are fair, conducted with integrity, and legitimate, Jocelyn Benson and her friends at Secretary of State Project MUST be defeated by any legal means necessary. We must keep ACORN, PIRG-IM, Soros, Moveon.org, and the rest of those groups out of the Sec of State office here.

We’ll be keeping a close eye on this race, and there’s no better spot than Campaign Finance Reports. BS walks, and money talks, much of it coming from out of state sources. Benson as of January 1st, had $200,000 to dump in this race. It’s a quite interesting list. Here’s some of the out of state money. A lot of this is from NY, Massachusetts, California, and the Washington DC area.

• Alida Messinger, New York City – $3400, one of the Rockefellers. Senator Jay’s sister. 
• Secretary of State Project, Santa Cruz, California – $3200
• Rob McKay, San Francisco – $3400, Taco Bell heir and part of Soros’s “Democracy Alliance
• Megan Hull, Washington DC – $3400 – Secretary of State Project
• Ellen Kurz, Cambridge MA – $2000 – Former staffer of Mike Dukakis
• Blair Hull, Chicago – $3400 – Former Senate Candidate, trader, sold his company to Goldman Sachs
• Craig Kaplan, New York City – $1370 – Project Vote Board of Directors
• Mary Delaney, Oakand CA – $1500 – Akonadi Foundation  (Also big Emily’s List donor)
• Tom Cosgrove, Cambridge MA – $500 – Dukakis worker, and Huffington Post poster
• Dan Payne, Newton MA – $500 – Massachusetts political consultant
• Amy Pritchard, Washington DC, $500 – DC Consultant
• Jack Corrigan, Brookline MA, $500 – Head Lawyer in Palm Beach County for Gore “Re-re-re-count” efforts. 
• Patricia Bauman, Washington DC, $750 – Bauman Foundation, Pew environmental
• Joe Ganley, Wellesley, MA, $500 – Former Campaign manager to Chris Gabrieli (lost to Patrick in 06 primary)
• Lani Guinier, Cambridge MA, $500 – Clinton’s nomination for Assistant Attorney General, supports pure racial quotas and proportional representation on local levels. 
• Laura Quinn, Washington DC, $500 – Al Gore’s former Communications director
• Ann McPhail, Arlington VA, $500 – International Monetary Fund
• Holly Schadler, Chevy Chase MD, $500 – Lobbyist, Sierra Club, Clintonite
• Tom Hsieh, San Francisco CA, $500 – Former member San Francisco Board of Supervisors, consultant
• Celinda Lake, Washington DC, $500 – Al Gore’s Pollster
• Bill Roberts, Brooklyn NY, $500 – Atlantic Philanthropies – supports Illegal aliens, Aspen Institute, left wing “vote protection” (ie fraud doesn’t exist), League of Conservation Voters, Tides Foundation (George Soros),
• Michael Kieschnick, Palo Alto CA, $2000 – One of the founders of the Secretary of State Project and CREDO (Working Assets)
• Joseph Sandler, Bethesda MD, $750 – DNC lawyer, moveon.org advisor, 
• Myles Duffy, Brooklyn NY, $450 – Howard Dean guy
• Gene Karpinski, Arlington VA, $400 – League of Conservation Voters
• Chip Amoe, Washington DC, $366.89 – Lobbyist
• Spencer Overton, Chevy Chase MD, $250.00 – Obama’s Deputy Assistant AG for office of legal policy. Worked with “Common Cause” and NAACP’s election team. 
• Noah McCormack, Cambridge MA, $250.00 – Harvard Fellow
• Scott Nielsen, Chicago IL, $250.00 – Tied to Soros, Joyce Foundation, and Democracy Alliance (Sec of State Fund)
• Alvaro Bedoya – Washington DC, $250.00 – Counsel to Al Franken, also associate of Soros
• Caron Atlas, Brooklyn NY, $300.00 – Fractured Atlas, Brooklyn Arts organization
• Sanford Newman, Takoma Park MD, $250.00 – Project Vote, associate of ACORN. Where Obama got his start in politics. 
• Sujata Tejwani, New York City, $250.00 – Camp Wellstone (former MN senator Paul Wellstone)
• Andrew Tobias, Miami, $250.00 – Treasurer for democrats, pushed for no fault insurance requirements in California, and absolutely loves current no-fault insurance law in Michigan (but lives in Florida)
• Anne Bartley, San Francisco, $250.00 – Rockefeller funds, Democracy Alliance, and “Grass Roots” Policy Project (SEIU)
• Christopher Edley, Berkeley CA, $750.00 – Dean of University of Cal Berkeley Law School
• Becky Bond, San Francisco, $250.00 – Working Assets/CREDO – (Which raises money for Greenpeace and Planned Parenthood [Barrenhood])
• Kenneth Robinson, Providence RI, $250.00 – Bank Lobbyist
• Jonah Goldman, Washington DC, $250.00 – Glover Park Group, and Democrat voting pusher
• Mark Friedrichs, Washington DC, $250.00 – Department of Energy
• Julia Cohen, Washington DC, $250.00 – Campus Progress (and heads up for vote fraud on campuses)
• Thurgood Marshall Jr, Arlington VA, $250.00 – Former Clinton Attorney, Third Way
• Jackie Bray, Washington DC, $250.00, Staffer for Terry McAuliffe campaign (Clintons’s DNC guy)
• Greg Speed, Washington DC, $250.00 – America Votes  (George Soros, Peter Lewis, Herb and Marion Sandler) – also has ties to ACORN, Brady Gun grabbers, Emily’s List, SEIU, and a who’s who of leftist causes
• Jonathan Barry, Brooklyn NY, $250.00 – Goldman Sachs
• Shaunna Thomas, Washington DC, $250.00 – People for the Unamerican Way
• Angelique Pirozzi, Boston MA, $250.00 -  Organizational Specialist of the National Education Association
• Robert Richman, St Paul MN, $250.00 – Paul Wellstone guy. Grass Roots Solutions. Consulting Firm tied to AFL-CIO. One of his favorite organizers – Saul Alinsky

That’s just in the first 250 or so contributions, of a list of 1600. I don’t have time yet to go through all of them in detail, but we’ll get to more of that at the convention report filing. Tons of out of state, east coast, California, and Chicago machine donations from lobbyists, far leftist interest groups, and Clintonites. This isn’t even a congressional race. Further glancing after the 250 shows the city attorney for San Francisco, the fundraiser for Emily’s list, the Cambridge MA peace coalition, “Fair elections” co-founder, Harvard professors, Rock the vote organizer, former congressman Marty Meehan from the McCain Feingold bill on the house side, the Massachusetts Deputy Treasurer, . I’m not even getting to our in state usual suspects. These are out of state interferences into Michigan elections.

Keep in mind this is for a MICHIGAN Secretary of State race. These national far leftists want to take our OUR elections. We need to remember this in November, and to tell these people to stay the hell out of Michigan.We do not need to have our elections be laughingstocks like Mark Ritchie’s Minnesota was in the Stuart Smalley race. We must defeat Benson in November.

Michigan’s 1st District – Congress
Incumbent – Bart Stupak (D-Menominee) – Not running for re-election
Years in office as of 2010 election – 18.
Cook District Numbers – R+3

Barone’s numbers
2008:
Obama – 50%
McCain – 48%
2004:
Bush – 53%
Kerry – 46%
2000:
Bush 52%
Gore 45%

I think Saltonstall’s chances are slim with her outspokenly pro-abortion views, and her Charlevoix address which will hurt her chances not just in the UP, but in the inland lower peninsula as well. I doubt she’ll be the nominee however, and expect the dems to run someone stronger.Gary McDowell and Rich Brown I think are their best two shots. For the GOP, I think Tom Casperson is the best shot, although Benishek may surprise people.

Candidates so far:
GOP:
Dan Benishek – Surgeon
Linda Goldthorpe – 08 Primary Candidate
Don Hooper – Usually runs for this seat.

Dem:
Connie Saltonstall – ran for State Rep in 2008, former County Commissioner

“He pulls a knife, you pull a gun. He sends one of yours to the hospital, you send one of his to the morgue! That’s the Chicago way” – The Untouchables

I’m not into the Chicago way, but I am Irish by blood, and we never stop fighting, either in politics or other matters. I’m not interested in online petitions. They are a waste of time. I’m interested in getting this damn thing modified and better yet repealed.

The problem with politics is patience and short memories. Most people don’t have any patience, or follow politics enough to have long memories. There is a way to repeal Obamacare, and it’s much harder than just having votes. It’s a long process, and it will take years. It took 10 years just for the ugly gun ban to expire, and that’s only with a sunset provision. Obamacare CAN be repealed, but it won’t be easy.

Assuming Obama will veto a repeal, it will take 67 senators, and 292 representatives to repeal this completely. It is unlikely there will be a repeal until at least 2012 if that punk Obama gets the firing he deserves. It will take a majority in congress for any good reforms to see the light of day in committee. In addition to that, we have redistricting in 2011 which redraws the congressional boundaries. In most states, the state legislature and governor draws the districts. I don’t like that system, but it is what it is, and we need to use that to our advantage.

Goal 1 – Take the committee chairs. Take the gavels away from Pelosi, Waxman, and company. That takes a majority.
Goal 2 – Take a fillibuster proof majority in the senate
Goal 3 – Take the presidency and/or veto proof majority
Goal 4 – Get rid of the damn thing, and a bunch of other bad laws passed over the last century.

What can we do now, here in 2010?

A. The obvious point, vote Republican in federal races. It doesn’t stop there though.

B. If you are in a swing state, a republican state, a republican county, or republican congressional district – fill out the census form. This is the quickest and easiest way to help. The more strength in Livingston County here, the more the borders contract in the district, as we don’t have to expand Mike’s district. This is about 2012. It does no good to take the house back in 2010, and lose it in 2012 with redistricting. Don’t boycott this in Michigan. The price may be Thad McCotter or Mike Rogers being redistricted out of a congressional seat.

C. Make sure republicans are elected in Gubernatorial, State Representative, and State Senatorial races. In 2010, all of them are up for election in Michigan. These races determine the 2012 congressional districts in redistricting.

D. Research. Find out the competitive seats, and send money or use time to help these candidates. Some people don’t have money. Others do. Some have some time that can be used for stuffing envelopes, walking doors, etc. All of that is important. Some are easier pickings than others. John Conyers for example is in a district that votes 85% democrat every year. The Gary Peters, Mark Schauer, and Bart Stupak districts voted for Bush. Don’t forget defense either. Thad McCotter had a close race in 2008, winning with 51%. He needs support as well.

E. Know the district. Some districts are bad for certain types of candidates. Scott Brown is the Massachusetts senator. He won’t be with us on everything, but it’s Massachusetts. We have to take what we can get there.

All of the house congressional elections are up in 2010. So are many senators. Here’s the senate races, all 36 of them. We need +9 to take control. I think there’s a good chance of that in 2012. 2010 it is a long shot.

Alabama – Richard Shelby – I don’t like him, and would like to see him primaried, but I’ll take his committee vote. He’s probably safe.

Alaska – Lisa Murkowski – I’d keep an eye on this one. Murkowski won with 48% last time.

Arizona – John McCain’s running again. He has a primary challenger in JD Hayworth. I’d rather see someone besides either of them, but if I have to pick one of the two, I’d reluctantly pick Hayworth.

Arkansas – Blanche Lincoln. She’s vulrunable and is one of the best shots for a pickup.

California – Barbara Boxer – Longshot, but possible. I just hope the nominee isn’t Carly Fiorina who ran Hewlett Packard into the ground.

Colorado – Michael Bennett – He was appointed after Ken Salazar left for an administration post in the Obama admin. This is a good chance for a pickup.

Connecticut – Chris Dodd is retiring. This is an open seat. It won’t be easy, but it’s worth a fight.

Delaware – Mike Castle isn’t my type of republican, but like Shelby, I’ll take his committee vote.

Florida – Marco Rubio has a good chance of wrapping up the primary here against stimulus loving Charlie Crist. He needs support in the general election as well.

Georgia – Johnny Isakson should be safe.

Hawaii – Daniel Inouye is probably safe, but if there is any year to battle the dems, this is it. He’s 86 years old this year.

Idaho – Mike Crapo – Safe

Illinois – Open seat as Roland Burris isn’t running. This is a possible pickup despite its democrat leanings. Between Blago’s troubles, Burris’s troubles, and the fact that the dems nominated a 34 year old banker with a questionable past, we have a shot here. Mark Kirk isn’t my favorite, but he won the primary, and I’ll take the committee vote, and right now, that’s the first step.

Indiana – Evan Bayh is retiring. This should be a pickup unless the GOP is stupid.

Iowa – Chuck Grassley is about as safe as one gets in Iowa, which is never safe for either party.

Kansas – Open seat. As long as the infighting isn’t too bad, we should keep this, whether Jerry Moran or Todd Tiahrt wins the primary.

Kentucky – Open seat as Jim Bunning is retiring. Keep an eye on this one. Kentucky isn’t as republican as one thinks once you get past the presidential level.

Louisiana – The question here is whether David Vitter cleaned up his troubles. If I’m Vitter, I’m making this election about Pelosi and Obama and Melancon. This will be tough.

Maryland – Barbara Mikulski is probably safe, but if there’s any year to fight, it’s this one.

Missouri – Roy Blunt vs Robin Carnahan. I’m not a Blunt fan, but I’m even less of a Carnahan fan. I’ll take his committee vote.

Nevada – Harry Reid is in big trouble.

New Hampshire – Judd Gregg is stepping down and this will be our toughest defense.

New York – Both Chuck Schumer and Kristen Gillibrand are up. I’ll like to see someone pick off one of these. It’s unlikely, but if any year is the year, this is it. Schumer is one of the brains behind the operations, so it’s worth a shot just to get him scared.

North Carolina – Richard Burr is up and has a tough defense. He won with 51% last time.

North Dakota – Byron Dorgan isn’t running. I wouldn’t take this seat for granted, but we need to make sure its ours.

Ohio – George Voinovich is retiring, and I’m not unhappy about that. Rob Portman is the likely nominee for the GOP. This will be a tough defense. Nothing in Ohio is easy.

Oklahoma – Tom Coburn should be safe.

Oregon – Ron Wyden is about as safe as it gets in Oregon, but that state isn’t unwinnable with the right candidate. Bush almost won it in 2000.

Pennsylvania – Arlen Sphincter, I mean Specter is getting double flanked. The dems are running Joe Stesak against him in the primary, and Pat Toomey (who won a democrat leaning seat himself) is showing he has more strength than the pundits thought. This needs to be a pickup

South Carolina – Jim DeMint should be safe.

South Dakota – John Thune may have a tough race, but should be safe unless Herseth runs.

Utah – Bob Bennett has primary troubles, but that seat should stay Republican.

Washington State – Patty Murray will be tough to beat, but this is the year to try. Slade Gorton won there a few times so it is possible to win there.

Wisconsin – Russ Feingold usually finds a way to survive, but now’s the time to go for it.

A veto override majority isn’t possible in 2010, but is there enough to take the senate? Possible. It’s worth a shot.

The house is a better shot. If we get the seats that went for Bush in 2000, let alone 2004, we get the house back. There’s dozens of districts that fit that profile, three of which here in Michigan. Gary Peters. Bart Stupak. Mark Schauer. Also off the top of my head in the Midwest. Three of them in Indiana. Joe Donnely. Brad Ellsworth’s open seat, and Baron Hill. In Ohio, Steve Driehaus, Charlie Wilson, Zach Space, Mary Jo Kilroy, and John Boccieri. That’s just in three states.

I can’t forget the state house and state senate side as well. Again, it goes to redistricting. We need to keep the state senate, and it won’t be easy. What should be:

St Senate (have 22-16 advantage)
Defenses:
St Senate 7 (Outer Wayne County)
St Senate 11 (Central and Northern Macomb)
St Senate 12 (NE Oakland, including Pontiac)
St Senate 13 (Eastern Oakland)
St Senate 17 (Monroe, part of Washtenaw and Jackson County)
St Senate 19 (Calhoun/Jackson Counties)
St Senate 20 (Kalamazoo, part of Van Buren)
St Senate 25 (Lapeer, St Clair)
St Senate 29 (Grand Rapids)
St Senate 34 (Muskegon and North of there)
St Senate 36 (Northeast Michigan)

Targets for pickup:
St Senate 6 (Livonia, Westland, Redford)
St Senate 10 (Sterling Heights, Roseville)
St Senate 26 (Eastern Genesee, North Central Oakland)
St Senate 31 (Thumb, Bay County)
St Senate 38 (UP, if Casperson runs)

St House (we need to win 13 seats, I listed 29 targets)
Defenses:
House 19 – Livonia
House 30 – Northern Sterling Heights
House 43 – Waterford
House 51 – Southern Genesee County
House 61 – Portage, Western Kalamazoo County
House 63 – Part of Kalamazoo and Calhoun Counties
House 71 – Most of Eaton County
House 78 – Southern Berrien County
House 80 – Van Buren County
House 81 – Most of St Clair County
House 85 – Shiawassee and part of Clinton County
House 94 – Rural Saginaw County
House 97 – Clare, Gladwin, Arenac, Rural Bay County.
House 99 – Isabella and part of Midland County

Pickup targers:
House 1 – Grosse Pointes, part of Detroit
House 20 – Plymouth
House 21 – Canton
House 23 – Far Downriver
House 24 – St Clair Shores, Harrison Twp
House 25 – North Warren (Had it as recently as 2000)
House 26 – Royal Oak (almost had it in 2004, shockingly)
House 31 – Clinton Twp, Mt Clemens
House 32 – Northern Macomb, pt of St Clair
House 37 – Farmington Hills (Rocky won there three times)
House 39 – Commerce, West Bloomfield (Dave Law and Marc Shulman won there)
House 52 – Western Washtenaw County
House 55 – Western Monroe County, part of Washtenaw County
House 56 – Eastern Monroe County
House 57 – Most of Lenawee County
House 64 – Part of Jackson County
House 65 – Part of Jackson County and part of Eaton County.
House 67 – Most of Ingham County outside East Lansing and Meridian Twp. Includes South Lansing.
House 70 – Montcalm and part of Ionia County
House 75 – Part of Grand Rapids
House 83 – Sanilac County and part of St Clair County
House 84 – Tuscola and Huron Counties
House 91 – Part of Muskegon County
House 101 – Leelanau, Benzie, Mason, and Manistee Counties
House 103 – Missaukee, Roscommon, Ogemaw, Iosco Counties
House 106 – Crawford, Oscoda, Alcona, Alpena, Montmorency, and Presque Isle Counties.
House 107 – Emmet, Mackinac, and Chippewa Counties
House 108 – Dickinson, Menominee, and Delta Counties
House 110 – Western UP.

This in 2010 lays the groundwork for getting rid of that 2300+ page monstrosity known as Obamacare. It starts with redistricting, stopping the bleeding, and then taking the state legislatures and governorships, as well the US House and US Senate to get ready for 2012, and then getting rid of this crap in 2013.

I’m sure you all have seen the ads from Census 2010. It’s well known that every 10 years, we have the census. Soon the forms will be coming to be filled out.  I checked my mailbox and thought it came in today. Nope.

Instead, I got a $0.44 first class mail telling me the census form will be in approximately one week from today. Thanks a lot. This is a major waste of my tax money. Anybody that is familiar with the costs of political campaigns knows how much mailings cost. This one is no different except that it is at our expense. There are about 110,000,000 households in the US. This .44 mailing adds up. About $48 million in postage alone. That doesn’t include about 110,000,000 envelopes, sheets of paper, laser printer depreciation, toners, and labor for that gigantic mailing.

I’ll give it one credit. It was quick. It was addressed from Phoenix yesterday, and I got it today here in Green Oak Township, Michigan.

Other than that, this was a gigantic waste. They should have saved the $50 million plus and just sent the actual census form instead of the one week warning.

This is just one more example why people don’t trust Washington DC with their money. $50 million here, $50 million there. Pretty soon, it’s up to 13 trillion.

Vern Ehlers, longtime moderate congressman for the Michigan 3rd district has announced he will retire at the end of his term. This is going to be an interesting race to watch. John McCain only got 49% in this district. However, Bush got 59-60% twice in this district. There’s already one challenger for the seat, as State Rep Justin Amash announced a primary challenge the day before his retirement.

This seat should stay ours, but I am a little concerned about it. I did an in depth write-up of this district last January on my own blog, which has the number breakdowns. I’ll give the quick rundown here. This district covers all of Barry and Ionia County, and all of Kent County outside of Alpine Township, precinct 2 in Solon Township, Sparta, and Tyrone Townships. It was a 50-50 district in 2008.

The City of Grand Rapids is democrat. The rest of the area leans republican in most years, but Obama won Kentwood, Wyoming, and East Grand Rapids in Kent County, Belding, Portland, Ionia, Ronald Twp, and North Plains Twp in Ionia County, and Hastings and Castleton Twp in Barry County. Bush won every one of those areas twice outside of the City of Ionia (which is a true swing area) which he lost narrowly in 2000.

There has been a long blue shift in part of this district. Grand Rapids itself was competitive in 2000, then went to 55% Democrat in 04, and exploded to 65% democrat in 2008. It’s minority population is fairly large and growing, and it also has a large number of college students. Back in the 1970′s, both state rep districts based there were democrats, then it went to one democrat and one republican up until 2006, where it once again went for two democrats. Kentwood, East Grand Rapids, Spencer Twp, Cascade Twp, has shifted as well from 2000 to 2004. I can’t pin that as an Obama 2008 aberration.

The district overall was a near perfect storm in 2008.

1. McCain quit Michigan, and announced it to the world. That demoralized conservatives and Republicans. A lot of them stayed home.

2. There is a strong good government streak in Kent County and Western Michigan (Gerry Ford types). Democrats have been fighting on this turf for a long time.

3.  Grand Rapids minorities voted. Grand Rapids normally does not vote 65% democrat.

4.  More people have moved to West Michigan, including some from Chicago area. Most aren’t of Dutch ancestry and don’t have the 70%+ loyalty to the GOP the Dutch do.

5. Bush anger.

6. Bad economy that has hit East Michigan for a long time hit the west side as well.

7. Significant dove streak here on foreign policy.

However there is one exception.

1. Strong personal popularity of Vern Ehlers and ticket-splitting.

I don’t expect that to happen again in 2010 for a few reasons. Bush is gone. Kent County Republicans aren’t likely to be caught offguard in 2010. Abortion funding in health care doesn’t go over well here.  No change in the war policies from Obama to Bush. Obama has his own problems. Just four years ago this was almost a 60-40 GOP district.  I think the best candidates for the democrats will be running in the 29th State Senate district instead which is a 50/50 district in a good year. That is opening up as Bill Hardiman is term limited. Hardiman is a moderate Republican who showed his electoral strength by winning the state senate seat in 2002 and 2006 (a democrat year). He’s rumored to be running for the 3rd. The other reason is that the democrats would have to run the table. They need to win all the areas Obama won in 08, and win Grand Rapids with 65% and overperform Obama’s numbers in other places. That is something I do not expect to happen in 2010 with an open gubernatorial seat leading the way.

The one thing that will probably determine our chances here in holding the seat is the primary. There’s an extremely long list of potential republican candidates in Kent County alone. There’s only a few viable democrat candidates who can give a real scare, with their best candidate likely running for state senate. Justin Amash is running. Bill Hardiman is likely to run, and he comes from the most democrat part of the district. I’d watch for former Lt Governor Dick Posthumus, Jerry Zandstra, one of the Glenn Steils, Ken Sikkema, Mark Jansen, Brian Calley, Gary Newell, Kevin Green, or Tom Pearce to make a run, along with a possible countywide officer from Kent County. With Bouchard’s early polling numbers, would Terri Lynn Land drop her Lt Governor bid for a Congressional run? (I’m probably going to hear about that comment later. Pure speculation, nothing more.) If the primary looks like it may be divisive, look for that “safe choice” to be recruited. I expect that to be either Land or Posthumus, maybe Hardiman.

I think this seat will stay in R hands, but it’s one we need to keep an eye on this November.

I’ve been following the Chicago 2nd and 14th Amendment cases. You can find all the original research at <A href=”http://www.chicagoguncase.com”>ChicagoGunCase.com</a>.  I posted some commentary about the case at my own blog <A href=”http://republicanmichigander.blogspot.com/2010/01/update-in-mcdonald-v-chicago-and-list.html”>here</a> and <A href=”http://republicanmichigander.blogspot.com/2009/12/scotus-to-hear-mcdonald-2nd-and-14th.html”>here</a>.

In short, Otis McDonald and others are suing to remove Chicago’s handgun ban as a violation of his 2nd and 14th Amendment rights.

On Redstate, I’m going to stick to the political aspects of this case since the legal arguments can get complicated will bore anyone except legal beagles to death. Recently, amici have been filed by both sides in this case. A large number of congressmen support McDonald, even some who lean anti-gun.

Most recently have been amici on behalf of Chicago. The following 53 Congresscritters, all of whom are democrat, supported the Chicago ban on all handguns. <a href=”http://www.chicagoguncase.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/01/08-1521-bsac-representive-carolyn-mccarthy-et-al.pdf”>My source is the brief itself</a>.

Gary Ackerman – D – New York 5th District (NY-05)
Tim Bishop – D – New York’s 1st District (NY-01)
Robert Brady – D – Pennsylvania’s 1st District (PA-01)
Lois Capps – D – California’s 23rd District (CA-23)
Michael Capuano -  D – Massacusetts 8th District (MA-08)
Yvette Clarke – D – New York 11th District (NY-11)
William Lacy Clay – D – Missouri’s 1st District (MO-01)
Gerald Connelly – D – Virginia 11th District (VA-11)
Joseph Crowley – D – New York 7th District (NY-07)
Elijah Cummings – D – Maryland 7th District (MD-07)
Danny Davis – D – Illinois 7th District (IL-07)
Diana DeGette – D – Colorado 1st District (CO-01)
Elliot Engle – D – New York 17th District (NY-17)
Sam Farr – D – California 17th District (CA-17)
Chaka Fattah – D – Pennsylvania 2nd District (PA-02)
Luis Gutierrez – D – Illinois 4th District (IL-04)
Miriam Hirono – D – Hawaii 2nd District (HI-02)
Michael Honda – D – California 15th District (CA-15)
Steve Israel – D – New York 2nd District (NY-02)
Jesse Jackson Jr – D – Illinois 2nd District (IL-02)
Sheila Jackson Lee – D – Texas 18th District (TX-18)
Henry Johnson – D – Georgia 4th District (GA-04)
Patrick Kennedy – D – Rhode Island 1st District (RI-01)
Carolyn Kilpatrick – D – Michigan 13th District (MI-13)
James Langevin – D – Rhode Island 2nd District (RI-02)
John Larson – D – Connecticut 1st District (CT-01)
John Lewis – D – Georgia 5th District (GA-05)
Nita Lowey – D – New York 18th District (NY-18)
Carolyn McCarthy – D – New York 4th District (NY-04)

James McGovern – D – Massachusetts 3rd District (MA-03)
Carolyn Maloney – D – New York 14th District (NY-14)
Doris Matsui – D – California 5th District (CA-05)
Gregory Meeks – D – New York 6th District (NY-06)
George Miller – D – California 7th District (CA-07)
Gwen Moore – D – Wisconsin 4th District (WI-04)
James Moran – D – Virginia 8th District (VA-08)
Jerrold Nadler – D – New York 8th District (NY-08)
Grace Napolitano – D – California 38th District (CA-38)
Bill Pascrell – D – New Jersey 8th District (NJ-08)
Donald Payne – D – New Jersey 10th District (NJ-10)
David Price – D – North Carolina 4th District (NC-04)

Mike Quigley – D – Illinois 5th District (IL-05)
Charles Rangel – D – New York 15th District (NY-15)
Steve Rothman – D – New Jersey 9th District (NJ-09)
Lucille Roybal Allard – D – California 34th District (CA-34)
Bobby Rush – D – Illinois 1st District (IL-01)
Linda Sanchez – D – California 39th District (CA-39)
Janice Schakowsky – D – Illinois 9th District (IL-09)
Jose Serrano – D – New York 16th District (NY-16)
Louise McIntosh Slaughter – D – New York 28th District (NY-28)
Fortney Pete Stark – D – California 13th District (CA-13)
Edolphus Towns – D – New York 10th District (NY-10)
Debbie Wasserman Schultz – D – Florida 20th District (FL-20)
Anthony Weiner – D – New York 9th District (NY-09)
Lynn Woolsey – D – California 6th District (CA-06)

Most of them are in safe seats, but in a good years, we can reduce these numbers. Connelly, Israel, Bishop and Price can all be beaten in a very good year. Maybe even McCarthy, but that’s really pushing it. Connelly and Bishop are the best bets. None of these are easy, but John Engler wasn’t supposed to win in 1990 either.

The good news. 249 Congressmen and 56 senators signed on to get rid of the Chicago ban, including some who are normally anti-gun. <A gref=”http://www.chicagoguncase.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/11/08-1521tsaccongress.pdf”>Brief on behalf of congress in favor of McDonald</a>. Some I expected to sign, like my Congressman Mike Rogers who is a good guy. I did not expect Gary Peters, who was quite anti-gun as a state senator, to sign this.  I still don’t trust Peters.
This list is a good list to remember election time to hand out to single issue voters.

<a href=”http://woodtv.triton.net/news/epic%20poll%2010209.txt”>Wood TV in Grand Rapids has the poll</a>

Now this is real early, but the results are so far promising. EPIC/MRA, a democrat leaning polling firm, has all GOP candidates leading Cherry in the General election except Rick Snyder. The taps were posted by Wood TV in Grand Rapids. Some interesting results.

Direction (US).

35% – Right Direction

58% – Wrong Direction

Direction (Michigan)

17% – Right Direction

75% – Wrong Direction

The Democrat candidates are:

• Lt. Governor John  Cherry, who was a former state senator from Clio, a Flint suburb.
• State Rep and former State Senator Alma Wheeler Smith who ran for LT Governor with David Bonior back in 2002. She’s from Ypsilanti.
• Former MSU coach George Perles
• Former Flint mayor Don Williamson
• Former State Rep John Freeman from Oakland County.

Democrat Primary:

33% – John Cherry

5% – Alma Wheeler Smith

3% – George Perles (Yes, that Perles)

3% – Don Williamson

2% – John Freeman

54% – Undecided

The Republican Candidates Are

• Attorney General Mike Cox from Livonia in Wayne County.
• Congressman Pete Hoekstra from Holland in Ottawa County
• Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard from Birmingham
• State Senator Tom George from Portage near Kalamazoo
• Former CEO of Gateway Rick Snyder from Ann Arbor
• Former Huron County Commissioner Tim Rujan

Republican Primary:

29% – Pete Hoekstra

28% – Mike Cox

14% – Mike Bouchard

3% – Rick Snyder

2% – Tom George

24% Undecided.

Positive/Negative Obama

48% – Positive

51% – Negative

Positive/Negative Granholm

33% – Positive

66% – Negative

Matchups:

45% Cox

30% Cherry

25% Undecided

40% Hoekstra

33% Cherry

27% Undecided

39% Bouchard

31% Cherry

30% Undecided

34% Cherry

32% Snyder

34% Undecided

Once again. This is a democrat leaning polling firm. This isn’t Strategic Vision. This isn’t even Mitchell. From this firm, Cox leads by 15, and the rest have leads of at least 7 outside of Rick Snyder. The results are good if you are not a democrat or Rick Snyder. The problem with Cherry is that he’s Michigan’s version of Al Gore in a bad economy. After eight years of an administration, there’s usually fatigue. Reagan was the exception, and the VP Bush won in 1988. Gore had a good economy, and he still couldn’t win because he turned into a gun grabber when he went national. Dick Cheney didn’t run in 2008, but probably would have done no different than McCain.

Posthumus could have won with a little more help as the 12% expected loss turned into 4%. Still wasn’t a win. Engler broke the 8 year jinx with a third term however. Milliken’s first choice lost in the primary after 12 years. Blanchard himself lost when he wanted a 3rd term. After 8 years, usually it’s trouble.

And unless things change in the next year, it’s big trouble for Granholm/Cherry. Cherry isn’t following Clinton who had a good rep thanks to the 1994 Republicans and their work on the economy. Cherry’s following the Matt Millen of governors.

While most of the hype for 2009 is for the elections in Virginia and New Jersey, we have several important elections here in Michigan.

The big one here is the 19th State Senatorial District race.  This one is up for grabs.

The 19th District covers all of Calhoun County, which is slightly democrat leaning in most years, but was won by Bush in 2004. It voted for Gore, Granholm twice, and Obama. It has two state rep districts, one of which shared with Kalamazoo County. The shared district leans Republican, not overwhelmingly so. The other district leans democrat. It was Mark Schauer’s district before it voted for Nofs. After it voted for Nofs, it voted for another democrat, Kate Segal, by a large margin.

Jackson County is more competitive and usually slightly republican leaning, but voted for Granholm once and Obama once. It did vote for Bush twice and Posthumus once. The state rep districts were Republican districts for awhile until the 2006 elections where Marty Griffin and Mike Simpson both won in Districts 64 and 65. Griffin is the former mayor of Jackson and the Current state rep in District 64.

Mike Nofs (R) and Marty Griffin (D) are facing off for this seat. Mike Nofs is from Battle Creek and has a knack of winning difficult races that Republicans have difficulty winning. So does Marty Griffin on the democrats side.

62nd District State Rep Results
2002:

That’s impressive in that district. Albion and Battle Creek are the two most democrat parts of the county, with Springfield right behind that. That was an open seat race, where they voted for Granholm and then voted for Nofs. The 2004 race was more impressive. Nofs won Battle Creek this time. Democrats can not win this district if they don’t win Battle Creek by a large margin. Albion alone is not big enough for them to pull this off. 2004 was a good year for Bush in Calhoun County, and that may have helped.

Then there’s the democrat landslide year of 2006. Nofs survives a rematch with Lynne Haley, despite a disaster in most of the state among state reps. Most impressively, he won the City of Battle Creek once again. It’s usually the townships if anything that make Republicans competitive in Calhoun County.

Three wins. The other district in Calhoun County was and still is held by a Republican state rep. That’s the one with Marshall and some of the more Southwestern townships. While one precinct in Battle Creek and all but one precinct of Bedford Township is in the other Calhoun district.

Now to Griffin’s State Rep district. Griffin ran three times in this district. He lost in 2004 in a close battle where he ran well ahead of John Kerry who bombed badly in Jackson County. He came back and won twice. Griffin wan well even in some GOP leaning townships there, like Summit. 2004 was an Open Seat. 2006 was a rematch. 2008 was a trouncing.

Spring Arbor is the top GOP area by percentage, and Baxter was from the townships. Hanover, I believe. Maybe Parma. They rematched in 2006, where the State turned against the GOP in a big way. Griffin took advantage of both that, and his 2004 results which were a “moral victory” of sorts in the future. Summit and Napoleon Townships flipped, and Spring Arbor wasn’t enough for Baxter. Too bad, since he’s a good guy.

And 2008 wasn’t even close. Leland Prebble was thrown to the wolves and didn’t get the support he needed to give Griffin the tough race he needed.

That’s the election history of those two strong candidates in their state rep districts. Mark Schauer, from Battle Creek, left the 19th Vacant. He ran against Mickey Mortimer in the 19th in 2002 in a race that should have been more competitive than it was. Mortimer, a state rep from Jackson County, won the portion of Jackson County in the district, but lost bad in Calhoun County. For the State Senate District, 2002 was a competitive attempt, but a big win by Schauer. In 2006, in a very, very, very, poor move from the GOP to not challenge Schauer. Fulton was thrown to the wolves. It was not secret that Schauer wanted to go to Congress. He should have been hit hard in 06, and also recalled in 07/08 for his tax increase vote. That didn’t happen, and he beat Walberg narrowly.

The 19th has ALL of Calhoun County, but NOT all of Jackson County. It does not contain Grass Lake Township, Leoni Township, Norvell Township, and Summit Township. That favors Nofs. Griffin ran well in Summit Township, and Leoni Township is a swing township at the top of the ticket which hurts Griffin since he’s a near homer there. Here’s the 2002 results.

Calhoun County is democrat, but it’s not THAT democrat. Not 61%. Even Obama couldn’t do what Schauer did, and 2002 was a good Republican year in Michigan outside of the governor’s race and US Senate race. Congress, AG, Sec of State, State House and State Senate were all positive that year. 2006 was a disaster all around. Don’t blame Fulton. She was thrown to the wolves. Here’s 2006. (I missed Athens Township from 02 in the Mortimer Race).

Those are the state rep and state senate races relevant to the district. For comparison’s sake, I’ll show the gubernatorial and presidential numbers as well. Here’s 2000.

Al Gore won Calhoun by 1000 votes. Bush beat Gore in Jackson County (as a whole) by 4000 votes. However, Summit Township, where Griffin did so well, also went for Bush by 1700 votes in 2000. Is that township not being in this district a Griffin or a GOP advantage in 2009? I don’t know. Leoni went for Gore in 2000 and Bush in 2004, but Grass Lake and Norvell Townships went for Bush twice. From a party-only standpoint, Removing those four township hurt the GOP. From a geographic standpoint, just the opposite as they helped Griffin. In the gubenatorial race of 02, here’s Posthumus vs Granholm. Schauer and Nofs also were on the ballot here. Griffin was not on the ballot.

Granholm won the district in 2002, even though Posthumus ran better overall in the state than Bush. I think the big reason is state workers. Jackson has or had at least a large number of people working in the prison system. A lot of commuters as well live in the district. Calhoun County is straight down I-69 from Lansing. Jackson is straight down US-127. Don’t forget the teachers and MEA. Even some of the social conservatives will go democrat in state races because of funding. This district remains close for the most part, but this district was more pro-Bush than it normally would be for a Republican in 2004. This is the high point for the GOP in this district. Bush actually won Calhoun County by 2200 votes , as well as Jackson County (all of it) by 9000 votes (2300 in Summit township, which Griffin barely lost that year). Bush didn’t hurt Nofs, and he probably beat Griffin, who wasn’t an unknown then as he was Jackson’s mayor.

53% is damn good in this district, and that was by both narrowing the gap in Battle Creek, Springfield, and Jackson, and also racking up numbers in the townships. 2006 was ugly, as was 2008. Dick DeVos was wrongly painted as an outsourcer of jobs, but there was Bush fatigue and ugly corruption with many in leadership. 2008 was no different, with McCain quitting. This is a populist district, and while it is conservative, it is not republican by any stretch of the imagination. That’s particular true in the townships. Here’s 2006.

That was bad, and so is 2008. Keep in mind that DeVos and McCain both won Summit Township which is in a different district, but was one of Griffin’s stronger areas. Here’s 08. Not quite as bad as 06, but close. 08 was more high democrat because of Albion, Battle Creek, and Jackson City which has more minorities. It wasn’t AS across the board as 06, but McCain won many of those areas which Bush won big by lower margins. Bush won Marshall twice, which is a key area here. Nofs did not represent Marshall as a state rep. Griffin can win if he wins that area. Here’s 08.

2008 is almost a reverse of 2004 Bush by percentage. It wasn’t quite the low watermark of 2006, but it damn well close. That’s why this special election is so important. This district mirrors much of America. You have industrial cities (Battle Creek, Jackson, Albion). You have a swing small town in middle America (Marshall). You have a conservative college anchoring Spring Arbor. You have a liberal college in Albion. You have a sizable minority population in Albion, Jackson, and Battle Creek. There are a lot of rural areas as well. None of the areas outside of Albion are uber-democrat. None of the areas outside of Spring Arbor are sizable and uber-Republican. It’s a populist district and leans right on social issues, but centrist to slightly left of center on economic issues. It does not trust big business. It doesn’t trust the federal government much either, but state government is a different story. Lansing isn’t far from here.

It will be a very interesting race, and while Virginia and New Jersey have the hype, this is one to watch as well. The 19th District mirrors America well, and its performance in this special election will turn some heads, no matter who wins.

I’ve said for almost four years that the Republican Party is at a crossroads, mainly due to fiscal issues. It can follow the lead of the Republican Study Committee, Mike Pence, Jim DeMint, and Jeb Hensarling in its opposition to deficit spending, or it can follow the lead of Ted Stevens, George W Bush, and Charlie Crist in their support for big spending policies. The choice made here, will determine whether the GOP can take the house back in 2010, and the senate back in 2012 or 2014. It will also determine if Obama will be a one-termer. The bailout in 2008 turned the election from a close race to an arse kicking. The fiscal policies in 2006 caused an arse kicking. Democrat-lite policies from the GOP do not work. Why vote for democrat-lite when the real thing is always available.

While I understand that what works in one community does not always work in another, basic principles should always apply, and that they should be less government and more freedom.

Many in the GOP are starting to get that message again with Obama’s radical leftism, Mike Pence having a more visible role, Ted Stevens being defeated, and George W Bush being gone. Starting being the operative word. There’s still a lot of trust that needs to be earned, and nobody trusts the government right now. That’s why we have the tea parties. That’s why the calls are flooding the offices. That’s why people are involved in politics who have not been involved.

Speaking of fiscal conservatism and tea parties, they aren’t GOP. They are conservative. There’s a difference, and people are getting right hooked by it. Florida Governor and senate candidate Charlie Crist is a big example. He was at the Mackinac Conference and probably wants to run for president someday. I was real tempted to get a big banner up there that said “Marco Rubio for Senate.” Marco Rubio is Charlie Crist’s opponent in the primary. Rubio has one of my favorite quotes. “If you are unhappy with the Republican establishment, then let’s get a new establishment.” Right now, we’re in the process there in Washington. The DC insiders don’t support Rubio, but that’s changing. Rubio called out Crist and rightly so in the magazine Human Events.

The only enduring legacy of this stimulus will be the deficit it’s left us with,” Rubio said. “I don’t care how much money he raises — he will never convince Florida Republicans that the stimulus package and his embrace of it, and his campaigning in favor of it — hand in hand with the president — was a good thing for Florida, a good thing for their children, or a good thing for our country”

Rubio is frank in his assessment of why Crist went along with the stimulus at the time: Obama was popular.

“I think he supported the stimulus package because Barack Obama was popular at the time, and I think he supported it because he didn’t want to have a budget session in Tallahassee where he had to make difficult decisions — which, quite frankly, is reflective of everything that’s wrong in American politics today,” Rubio said. “We have too many people that just want to be popular.”

Right on the nose. That is also a big reason why I NEVER donate to the NRSC or NRCC. Those two groups pick and choose establishment candidates and fund them, even in primaries.

In 2005, the NRSC ran negative ads against Steve Laffey who ran against RINO Lincoln Chafee. Chafee got the establishment GOP support and won the primary. He still lost in the general in 2006. The NRSC spent money meant to support republicans, not fight them.

In 2009, the NRSC endorsed big spending Arlen Specter for re-election. Specter is now a democrat because the grassroots republicans had enough of him. Pat Toomey for senate. Toomey is an electable (won three times in a district that went for Gore and Kerry) conservative who can win a tough state like Pennsylvania.

Also this year, the NRSC said they would stay out of the Florida open primary, changed their mind, and supported Charlie Crist. My response? Rubio for senate.

The NRCC isn’t much better. In Arizona, they flodded a district with money in an open primary for a candidate that lost. Wasted money.

Those are reasons why I don’t give money to the establishment committees. If you plan on donating, the best way to go is to individual candidates, like Rubio, Toomey, Pence, DeMint, etc. Cut out the middleman.

That leads to the Politico article today which was very interesting. Tea partiers turn on GOP leadership. I wouldn’t say, “turned” on GOP leadership. Most of the tea partiers I know and talked to never liked the GOP leadership anyway. This is grass roots. These aren’t followers, but they chose their own paths. If you give them a big spending republican, they will get opposed just like an Obama democrat.

“It’s an outgrowth of the frustration people have had with the Republican Party,” said Andrew Moylan, director of governmental affairs for the National Taxpayers Union, another group that has played a large role in organizing the tea party movement. “I think a lot of people have been angry at Republicans for betraying our trust.”

“I think the GOP establishment has ignored their constituents and the feelings of their constituents for years,” added Meckler.

It’s an unusual predicament for the Republican Party, since the conservative-oriented issues that animate Tea Party activists once seemed destined to make the movement a valuable auxiliary to the Republican Party.

While there’s little evidence of tea party activist support for Democratic candidates, the specific notion of electing a GOP majority hasn’t ranked high on their agenda either.

Trust has to be re-earned. This was the major damage done to the GOP after Gingrich and Armey left, and after the arrival of President Bush.

One of those activists, Canyon Clowdus, an Army veteran who is taking on third term conservative Rep. Michael Conaway (R-Texas), has blasted the incumbent for making “a horrible mistake” in voting for Troubled Asset Relief Program.

“He has put a financial burden on my four children that will amount to hundreds of thousands of dollars each,” Clowdus says of Conaway on his campaign website.

“I think it was a bad, bad political decision,” Armey said of the 34 Senate Republicans and 91 House Republicans who voted for the TARP bailout, “and if you talk to grassroots activists, it has become a political test for them.”

Moylan agreed that TARP is “really kind of the flash point that started all of this.”

The bailout, supported and OWNED by Obama, Bush, and McCain. The stimulus package. Cap and trade. One after another. ALL of it is bad. Pete Hoekstra has mostly a good record, but he voted for the bailout the second time it was in the house. I can’t get past that, and it cost him a chance at my primary vote (I’m supporting Mike Cox) for governor. Hoekstra’s a good guy, but on fiscal issues that are tough decisions, I now have big doubts about his ability to handle pressure.

More:

For some, supporting insurgent campaigns or waging primary bids just isn’t a strong enough signal to send to a Republican Party that has abandoned core conservative policies.

Erick Erickson, founder and editor of the influential conservative blog RedState, has urged Tea Party activists to “put down the protest signs” and stage takeovers of local Republican parties.

“Grassroots activists need to start infiltrating the party,” said Erickson. “The only way to start getting [the establishment] back is to start pounding them with every fist we have.”