But my concern goes well beyond that.

Any site whose “managing editor” feels free to call a conservative Republican Congressman a “douchebag” (for something he didn’t even do) is not a site that most serious Republicans will stick with.

Worse than that, a site whose “editors” choose to endorse two Democrats in Alaska in some sort of spasm of misdirected rectitude, is sadly lacking in adult supervision.

Finally, in the weeks when the financial meltdown was front and center in the news and John McCain was hemorrhaging support, what was kept front and center on the “front page” here at RedState? The same bloody story! Did it not occur to “the editors” that endlessly giving the “economic crisis” so much attention would be like Kos headlining his site with breathless updates on William Ayers or Jeremiah Wright? Lunacy.

This site is amateurish in an age that demands more. For decades conservatives have been ahead of the liberals in organization. Not now. If RedState wants to be relevant it needs to clean up its act and get serious. Now.

I haven’t seen a single Obama TV ad in 3-4 days and
the TV has been peppered by McCain ads…..

If that is an accurate observation that is very interesting news indeed.

Has anyone else in Northern Virginia noticed this?

I have noticed that many news stories go out of their way to give the candidate ages.

For instance this AP story.

Ages normally are included either when the individuals are unknown or when there is a specific reason for their age to be mentioned.

In a routine story on the latest Zogby Poll it seems odd that the ages were splashed out there in the 4th and 5th paragraphs.

Amongst all the well documented media bias this is just another drip, but telling all the same.

For the past several weeks there have been odd swings where Obama goes way out in front and then slips back. We are currently witnessing another slip back.

I’ve decided a couple of things in terms of what polls I will watch. First I am only interested in the tracking polls. At least with tracking polls you have some reasonable chance of spotting trends one way or the other in spite of any bias that may be involved. And one shot polls are so ‘90s anyway.

Second, the tracking polls I have chose to focus on are the Big Five that RCP uses:

Rasmussen, Reuters/CSpan/Zogby, Hotline/FD, Gallup, and GW/Battleground. GW/Battleground does not poll on Friday and Saturday so for our purposes today I will leave them out. The other four are out with numbers through yesterday and their average is Obama up 5.87%.

This repeated exercise of Obama’s lead lengthening and then contracting is very interesting. A plausible explanation could be that a good chunk of the middle is undergoing a very difficult decision process. Under this scenario people get ticked off at the economy and want to punish a politician and McCain best represents the status quo so they move toward Obama.

Then, the painful reality that Obama is a vast unknown reasserts itself and they ebb back toward undecided and McCain.

Of additional interest is that Obama’s support now stands at under just over 49%. Given that John Kerry got just over 48% it should surprise no one that Obama is lurking in the same general area.

As I’ve stated before turn out will determine this election. If Republican, conservative, and libertarian voters stay home on election day Obama will win. If they turn out in numbers like 2004 we can still yet taste sweet victory.

This seems a tad odd and out of line with his professed love for the middle class and poor down trodden folk in general.

After all how much of the “struggling middle class” have accounts with $250,000 in them?

Given the fact that it is relatively simple to spread several hundred thousand dollars among various institutions I find Obama’s special concern in this area curious. Peculiar even.

Not to mention that FDIC has only a fraction of the money on hand that would likely be needed if things REALLY went off the tracks.

From September 14, 2000 it pronounced GWB “toast” because of his poor standing in the polls. Saletan’s concluding paragraph:

A candidate who puts pride before prudence, refuses to learn from his mistakes, and is capable of living for days in an alternate political universe can only survive while he’s ahead. Once he falls behind, there’s no reason to think he’s up to the task of correcting his course and regaining control of the race. Yes, Bush came back to beat John McCain in South Carolina. But in that case, Bush had a firewall of phone banks, military backers, and boundless financial superiority. The swing voters in that contest were conservative Republicans. Bush’s little-known opponent was prone to fatally undisciplined anger and was vulnerable to ads full of previously unaired negative information. Against Gore, Bush has none of those crutches. Stick a fork in him. He’s done.

Gee, does any of that sound familiar?

After tonight’s outstanding performance by Sarah Palin we conservatives need to redouble our efforts to elect John McCain.

Joe Biden was right: This is the most important election of our lives.

Everyone wants to be up in the polls. No matter how much we disparage them when we are behind, we all know we would rather be up, much as a football team would prefer to lead by two touchdowns to begin the Fourth Quarter. But just as no PROFESSIONAL football team would give up when time remains on the clock, neither should Republicans give up 33 days before Election Day.

There are several reasons why but here I’ll deal with the polling issue.

Polls are a snapshot of RIGHT NOW. Assuming that people are not lying to the pollsters, we can be almost certain that IF the election were held today Obama would win. However the predictive ability of polls 30 days out is very shaky for the very good reason that polls are reflections of the present not forecasts of the future. Some examples:

A. In 1948 Dewey lead Truman by 5 to 15 points in September & October. On election day Truman won by 4.5 points.

B. In 1968 Richard Nixon held substantial leads in various polls throughout August and September. Yet on Election Day he eeked out victory by less than 1 percent.

C. In 1976 Jimmy Carter held huge double digit leads over Gerald Ford from the conventions and deep into October. Ford was burdened with the baggage of Watergate and his own less than inspiring debate performances. Yet by Election Day Ford managed to close to within 2.6 points of Carter.

D. In 2000 George Bush lead Al Gore by 5-6 points through much of September & October only to come up a half point behind on Election Day.

The point here is not the simplistic “the polls are wrong”, but to point out the unarguable fact that public opinion CHANGES over time.

This is a very odd election. I’ve been closely following presidential elections since 1980. I have studied many other elections going back to Lincoln’s time. This is not a “normal” election and thus we shouldn’t be surprised if some odd twists await us over the next four plus weeks.

The media has completely lost its objectivity and in some cases has lost even the pretense of same. In some respects this has come to feel like a holy war where the media has decided that Barack Obama MUST be the next president and that facts which suggest the contrary simply don’t matter.

However the media doesn’t vote and no matter how dark things look today they could change in the blink of an eye.

This election, like all others, will be decided by who chooses to actually vote. Republicans must keep getting out the truth about Obama. We must continue to urge our conservative friends to be engaged in the process. We must turn out on November 4th.

Mr. Newman was a classy guy, a great actor, a competent race car driver, and several cuts above the average Hollywood leading man.

Mr. Newman was a political liberal but not of the mindless Woody Harrleson variety or the nasty and angry Ed Asner or Michael Moore type, and not the smug Alan Alda or snarky David Letterman sort.

He was a liberal but also recognized the decency and good intentions of conservatives.

His passing leaves the world a colder and less tolerant place.

As of September 25:

Gallup Tracking - Tie , 46 46

Rasmussen Tracking - Obama +3 , 49 46

Battleground Tracking - McCain +1 , 48 47

Everyone buckle your chin straps and hang on.

Is anyone doing that on a daily or weekly basis in 2008?

The constant avalanche of polls is bewildering and bordering on meaningless.

Many of the results just don’t scan.

For instance the latest ABC/WaPo poll that has Obama ahead by 52-43 seems to be fairly worthless. This poll was 38% Dem and 28% Rep with 29% I. When the independents were pushed the Dem leaners lead Rep leaners 46% to 28%. The “net leaned party was 54 to 38 in favor of the Democrats. Given those numbers one wonders why Obama “only” had a 9 point lead?

At the same time the notoriously inaccurate NBC/WSJ poll has Obama up by just 2. While Battlefield is swimming against the tide and still showing McCain up by 2.

Now comes a poll by something called Marketing Resource Group of Lansing, which shows McCain up 3 in Michigan!

It makes the head ache.

I am mildly suspicious about the national polls. They seem to be going up and down in a semi-choreographed way. This makes we wonder if in fact they are all tinkering with their sample ingredients to try to blend in with the current news cycle.

It seems odd to me that while the state polls are all over the place, the main national polls are all very close to each other.

This morning McCain-Palin are once again climbing up as Rasmussen shows it now a tie, Gallup shows just a 3 point Obama lead, and Battleground now shows a 2 point McCain lead.

The Battleground poll also raises an interesting issue. James Carville is one of the principals behind that poll. James Carville is a Clinton loyalist. It can reasonably be argued that James Carville does not want Obama to win.

Make of it what you will.

I am mildly suspicious about the national polls. They seem to be going up and down in a semi-choreographed way. This makes we wonder if in fact they are all tinkering with their sample ingredients to try to blend in with the current news cycle.

It seems odd to me that while the state polls are all over the place, the main national polls are all very close to each other.

This morning McCain-Palin are once again climbing up as Rasmussen shows it now a tie, Gallup shows just a 3 point Obama lead, and Battleground now shows a 2 point McCain lead.

The Battleground poll also raises an interesting issue. James Carville is one of the principals behind that poll[ UPDATE: I've been informed that I've confused my "Battleground" Polls and that THIS Battleground is not the Carville-Greenberg Poll] . James Carville is a Clinton loyalist. It can reasonably be argued that James Carville does not want Obama to win.

Make of it what you will.

Charges that were first splashed across the pages of the New York Post were quickly picked up by the major media of the time. The fact that the charges were spurious and that the fund in question was both common and legal didn’t matter. The fact that every cent was carefully accounted for didn’t slow the media frenzy.

Only the courage of the vice-presidential nominee and the good sense of Republicans across the country kept the left-wingers from winning that battle.

Any student of history can tell you that we are fighting the same battles today that our parents and grandparents were engaged in decades ago. The man who as Supreme Allied Commander defeated Adolph Hitler, was in just a few short years accused of being a mindless tool of the right-wing, a war-monger, a Communist agent, out of touch, too old, and of course “a reactionary”.

In an attempt to bring down Dwight D. Eisenhower, the Democrats and their fellow travelers in the media, decided the easy way was to attack Ike’s running mate Richard M. Nixon.

With the political left it has never mattered HOW you defeat your opponent. The left attacks mercilessly and then when faced with a sharp response assumes the fetal position and starts blubbering.

Barack Obama in 2008 is running the same sleazy campaign against John McCain and Sarah Palin that was ran against Eisenhower, Goldwater, and Reagan.

Its our job to make sure they don’t get away with it.

Along with various elected officials, we were honored by the presence of Chief Justice John Roberts and Justice Samuel Alito.

Before the ceremonies I had a chance to speak very briefly with each of them. My sole desire and interest was to be able to thank them for what they do.

I am not sure how much the average Republican, the average conservative, realizes and appreciates what these gentlemen must contend with solely because they represent logic and rationality on the Supreme Court.

To be a principled conservative in high office means to make of yourself a constant target for the old media and every nutball left-wingnut alive.

They each thanked me for my comment and Chief Justice Roberts looked me square in the eye and said “I appreciate you saying that”.

Both of these men impressed me with their informal and friendly bearing.

Chief Justice Roberts delivered the primary address for the day, and his words were well and carefully chosen. One part I especially enjoyed was when he dwelt on the fact that when James Madison wrote his life story near the end of his 85 years he filled up exactly 15 pages.

Feel free to draw any contrast that springs to mind.

Pennsylvania Obama 47, McCain 47 Tie
Ohio McCain 48, Obama 45 McCain +3
Florida McCain 49, Obama 44 McCain +5
Virginia McCain 48, Obama 48 Tie
Colorado Obama 46, McCain 48 McCain +2

Ohio and Florida continue to look solid for McCain-Palin, Virginia and Pennsylvania are both tied. But very important is Colorado moving to a 2 point McCain advantage.

Obviously Virginia’s numbers are disappointing but much better, and likely far more accurate, than the SUSA poll I discussed earlier today.

The Pennsylvania numbers are outstanding and now make me very anxious to see new figures for Michigan.

This group of polls is very good news for McCain-Palin and very bad news for Obama-Biden.

If you believe that I have some oceanfront property in Iowa to sell you.

New York went for John Kerry by 19 points while Virginia went for George W. Bush by 8 points. For you community organizers out there that is a 27 point differential. No way that four years later these two states are a point apart.

It is likely that both polls are wrong but the one for Virginia by Survey USA has some obvious red flags.

Their sample is 33 R, 37 D, 23 I. According to CNN’s exit polls in 2004 VA voters were 39 R, 35 D, 26 I. So SUSA has move the Republican count down 8 points vs the Democrats.

Also it appears that they over sampled the youngest voters and the oldest voters but because they use different age groups than CNN it is not possible to be sure.

In any case if Obama is only 5 points up in NY then he is likely down double digits in VA. Conversely if McCain is down 4 in Virginia then he’s almost certainly down by 20 points or more in New York.

Both Gallup and Rasmussen show a two point McCain lead as does the Battleground poll. McCain’s bounce seems to be very gently settling down in contrast to Obama’s abrupt fall after the GOP convention.

If McCain maintains that 2 point edge for another day or two it may well solidify until the first debate.

For instance Richard Nixon was only 39 years of age when Ike put him on the ticket in 1952. The Democrats, who already hated Nixon because of his take down of Alger Hiss and Helen Gahagan Douglas, pounced on Nixon’s inexperience and alleged unsuitability for the Vice-Presidency.

Four years later the Stevenson campaign again flogged the same horse. In both ‘52 and ‘56 the nation didn’t buy it. Even given Dwight Eisenhower’s known health problems, in 1956 the people chose the GOP ticket in another, larger, landslide.

In 1960 the shoe was on the other foot as the GOP tried to paint John Kennedy as inexperienced and a risky choice. By a very narrow margin (and by the grace of Mayor Daley and LBJ) the country again discounted experience.

In 1976 the country narrowly elected an inexperienced Jimmy Carter.

In 1980 the nation easily chose Ronald Reagan who the Democrats tried to portray as risky and dangerous.

In 1992 we Republicans developed apoplexy as we tried to convince voters that Bill Clinton was too inexperienced.

In 2000 the media made much of George W. Bush’s inexperience in foreign policy vs. Al Gore’s supposed aptitude.

Now in 2008 the issue of experience is back again, first aimed at Barack Obama and now trained squarely on Sarah Palin.

It won’t work this time either because the American people have the good sense to look past “experience” when the word is used only to denote years in office and/or time spent in and around the “puzzle palaces on the Potomac”.

This is why the McCain campaign moved away from the “experience” theme. It would not have worked. They used it over the summer and the Obama campaign likely assumed they would keep singing that tune through Election Day.

But the McCain people were using “experience” as a feint, and had other plans ready to roll out at the right moment. The plan has worked to near perfection as the Obama campaign’s befuddled reaction to the inspired pick of Mrs. Palin has been incredibly stupid and amateurish.

Imagine if Barack Obama had chosen a 72 year old former POW as his running mate. Would the McCain campaign have reacted by saying “This is a terrible choice because he’s too old and just being a former POW is no reason to elect someone VP”?

That would be pretty dumb, right? Yet that is exactly how the Democrats have reacted to Sarah Palin.

Presidential politics is a game primarily of grasping the public’s mood and then managing impressions and expectations. The national mood this year is “change”. Not Barack Obama per se, but change from the last eight years. Many voters in the middle and even on the right are looking for a new start, not “experience”.

Since the 2004 Democratic convention, “change” has been Obama’s chief selling point, and yet he chose 36 year Washington insider Joe Biden as his running mate. That was a terrible decision and maybe the one that ultimately will cost him the election. That one badly mangled executive decision cut most of the ground from under Obama that he had spent four years building up. Now McCain-Palin is deftly finishing the job.

With “change” having been neutralized and co-opted by McCain-Palin, the focus of voters has moved to other areas. Issues such as policy choices, qualifications, and even…….experience.

On each of those battlefields McCain-Palin trounces Obama-Biden. Americans are far to the right of the Democratic ticket, while Palin attracts the GOP base and McCain is considered “just right” by many independents.

John McCain clearly is the best qualified of any of the four people on the two tickets and Obama has increasingly failed to show that he’s made of the right stuff.

Finally, on experience, McCain-Palin has more of it and more of the right kind. While Biden has spent 36 years as a typical Washington politician, John McCain has shown many times that he is willing to upset the apple cart.

And yes, Sarah Palin has more creditable and useful experience than the Community Organizer in Chief does.

This election will be close and either side could win, but as of September 14, John McCain and Sarah Palin are in an excellent position to bring home a win on November 4.

But for me he kind of ruined the whole effort with this paragraph:

In the long sweep of U.S. political history, the worst dirt that has been thrown at either of the presidential candidates pales compared with……..the false claims by Republicans in the 1944 campaign that President Franklin D. Roosevelt was senile. FDR by that point was indeed a dying man, though he did not know it, but he was mentally as sharp as ever.

For starters, the Democrats said the same thing about Ronald Reagan in 1984 but apparently Sieff doesn’t consider that to be “dirty” enough to be mentioned.

Furthermore Sieff is wrong on two counts. FDR almost certainly did know he was dying. He may not have known precisely how sick he was (does anyone ever?) but he knew he was quickly running out of time. His actions over the last months of his life indicate clearly that he knew he had little time in which to finish his program.

While his doctors apparently never directly told him “You will die soon Mr. President” they did monitor him almost constantly and made it clear that he should severely limit his activities. By 1944 his health problems included hypertension, arteriosclerosis, hypertensive heart disease, and cardiac failure.

Certainly by the Fall of 1944 FDR was not the same man mentally that he had been even just a year or two before. While he was still capable of summoning his strength and showing flashes of earlier years, he had become mentally and physically exhausted. Just over five months after his re-election to a fourth term, Franklin Delano Roosevelt was dead.

Whether he realized all the nuances of his act or not, will likely be the subject of a few books over next 5 or 10 years.

I believe that he also had the good fortune to have very fertile ground on which to plant. Just prior to the Sarah Palin pick, Republican and conservative voters all over the nation had finally gotten to the point of maximum revulsion toward the Democratic ticket.

There are some years where one team would be as well served if they just stayed home. Obviously the landslide years of ‘64, ‘72, and ‘84 come to mind, but so to do years like 1996.

Realistically Bob Dole was NEVER going to beat Bill Clinton in 1996. Partly that was because Bill Clinton was a very able politician and Bob Dole was old and boring. The fact that he was also honorable and decent was not a big seller in the crazy 90’s.

Partly I believe it was because the GOP had just captured the Congress two years before and voters knew that Clinton would have to continue to work with Newt Gingrich and Trent Lott to get anything done.

Three months ago 2008 was looking a lot like 1996. Young, telegenic Democrat vs old, grumpy Republican. (Where’s the outrage?!) Republicans were dispirited and glum.

Then along came Sarah at what they used to call “the psychological moment”.

Just when many people were realizing that Barack Obama is an empty vessel into which millions had been pouring their daydreams and desires, and that he would be “working” with Pelosi & Reid Inc., four things happened in rapid fire order.

First, Barack Obama choose old tired boring Joe Biden as his VP.

Second, in what should have been his finest hour, Barack Obama delivered a boilerplate liberal blah blah blah speech in front of a tacky Hollywood set.

Third, Hurricane Gustav gave George W. Bush a mulligan and this time GWB and a team of Republican Governors aced the exam. (Please no fake outrage, I have a dear sister-in-law who lost her house in Katrina and I and my wife were in Biloxi five days after the storm with a truck load of supplies.)

Fourth, Sarah Palin appeared before a weary nation’s eyes and like a bouquet of roses brought first smiles and then tears of joy.

The Republican base was energized as it hasn’t been since Ronald Reagan left office in 1989.

Political moderates who had begun to have doubts about Barack Obama suddenly had another option.

Women who felt stepped on, for among other things Obama’s shabby treatment of Senator Clinton, had a new spring in their step.

The two real people, with real accomplishments, were a striking contrast to the two posers, the two “change” pretenders, and it was a new day in America.