An Odd Assumption

By: runnamuck (Diary) | September 21st at 09:41 AM |

I’m looking for help here this morning. I understand that wise and wonderful election wizards like Karl Rove begin the process of predicting election wins by making the (goofy, IMHO) assumption that the incumbent will win all the same states he/she did in the last race. I know they have to start somewhere, but is this a reasonable assumption in this particular race? | Read More »

Tags: elections, electoral map, Obama, polling data, Romney, Rove

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moelane: #rsrh Tweet of the Day, Moo Hoo Bwah Hah edition.: http://t.co/JOmEr67pqx
moelane: #rsrh This would be EW Jackson http://t.co/uvAr803kta This is suddenly going to be a MUCH more entertaining VA-LTGOV race. (via @JohnG405)
moelane: #rsrh Of *course* Ed Markey is hiding from Massachusetts voters.: http://t.co/kzUef1Pq2O
moelane: #rsrh Hastily-retiring Max Baucus suggests more IRS revelations.: http://t.co/ElYCPYsZ4k
moelane: #rsrh Oh, just this *once*: 44[*].: http://t.co/QWpy8SXGkt
moelane: #rsrh Let me just be honest here about 'Watergate.': http://t.co/WLu6UrRQ0F
VladimirRS: Well, you learn something every day. #eggonmyface #rsrh http://t.co/5jK2SUHwee
VladimirRS: How does burning 6 lbs of gasoline generate almost 20 lbs of CO2? #junkscience #conservationofmass #rsrh http://t.co/5B19gPSB7p
VladimirRS: Happy Endangered Species Day! Happy Nat'l Cherry Cobbler Day! Happy Nat'l Bike to Work Day! #rsrh http://t.co/2RVVcPXMZp
moelane: #rsrh "Was western meadowlark the official state bird of the entire Louisiana Purchase..." : http://t.co/flfLaSpsr0
moelane: #rsrh Politico asks: WWCD?: http://t.co/BiObg0sZKv
moelane: #rsrh Charlie Cook: GOP should (air quotes) 'start' leaking dirt on Obama to press.: http://t.co/5syx1mf0vz
RMConservative: Between 1992 and 2012, a total of about 1.7 million Muslims entered the U.S. as legal permanent residents.http://t.co/WuPJSn0yp6 #rsrh
moelane: #rsrh It has been a long day in a long week in what is already a long month...: http://t.co/77UFRvPtEh
moelane: #rsrh I hope that we will all be mature about this Lisa Jackson painting.: http://t.co/7vHT3gBauL
moelane: #rsrh Barack Obama has 'complete confidence' in Eric Holder.: http://t.co/IwQvILTUCX
moelane: #rsrh Attention, shadowy VRWC groups: start primarying John "Hi, I'm an idiot" Tierney.: http://t.co/8gcJlF9fpz
moelane: #rsrh How cute: the NYT still thinks Obama won the tax cut fight.: http://t.co/L4pvg81CXQ
moelane: #rsrh So, basically, Barack Obama is now TROLING the press over the IRS thing.: http://t.co/sbusr1n3rw
presjpolk: DHS starts gunning for Bitcoin. TOLD YOU SO. http://t.co/KJYnEUwpPK AND MT. GOX IS DOWN. 502. https://t.co/nc8jEsOCBB #rsrh
moelane: #rsrh QotD, The Huffington Post (!) Takes Media Matters To The Woodshed edition.: http://t.co/kzFKdSoMM8
moelane: #rsrh Use Buycott on *your* sweatshop smartphone to identify corporate malefactors!: http://t.co/jNBupHYB7b
moelane: #rsrh IRS accused of stealing 60 million medical records.: http://t.co/XArqhlkeca
VladimirRS: In the words of Harry S Truman, "The Buck Stops with Some Low-Level Employees." #rsrh
moelane: #rsrh It's true, it's true: anti-frackers DO sound just like the chemtrail people, these days.: http://t.co/LFJ8h2PMa1
RSBooBooKitty: In other words, REALITY is what keeps this reform (Obamacare) advocate up at night. http://t.co/rjsboI1lC7 #rsrh
RMConservative: 26.1% of California is foreign born http://t.co/BlTtEVsJsu Again, immigration can be a tremendous asset, but how much? how quickly? #rsrh
RSBooBooKitty: Using recent MSM standards, shouldn't this be Romney's worst week ever? #rsrh
VladimirRS: Sonic's new milkshake flavor -- Peanut Butter & Bacon. #rsrh http://t.co/4jliwSbFqj

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