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My Take on the 2010 VT Races

By: SE-779 (Diary)  |  January 19th, 2010 at 11:39 PM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

Here’s a rundown of how I think the VT races will go:

Governor: Incumbent GOP Governor Jim Douglas is retiring. The GOP has unified behind Lieutenant Governor Brian Dubie. On the Democratic side, State Senators Susan Bartlett, Mat Dunne, Doug Racine, and Peter Schumlin and Secretary of State Deb Markowitz are in the running. The Second VT Republic Party has unified behind Dennis Steele. The Independents have unified behind Cris Ericson. I expect Markewitz to handily defeat all the opposition. In this climate, I expect Dubie to narrowly prevail 52-48. GOP HOLD.

Lieutenant Governor: Incumbent GOP Lieutenant Governor Brian Dubie is running for Governor. On the GOP side, State Senator Phil Scott and Businessman Mark Snelling are in the running. On the Democratic side, there are no announced candidates, but potential candidates include State Representatives Tom Costello, Steve Howard, and David Zuckerman, State Senator Virginia Lyons, and former Non Profit Group Executive Director Tim Palmer. Scott will win 58-42, and lose to whoever the Democrats nominate. DEM PICKUP.

State Treasurer: Incumbent Democratic State Treasurer Jeb Spaulding is running for re-election. The Democrats have unified behind Spaulding. The GOP has no announced or potential candidates. DEM HOLD.

Secretary of State: Incumbent Democratic Secretary of State Deb Markowitz is running for Governor. The Democrats have unified behind Attorney and Middlesex Zoning Board Chair Charlie Merriman. The GOP has unified behind Attorney and Williston Selectman Chris Roy. Merriman will defeat Roy 61-39. DEM HOLD

State Auditor of Accounts: Incumbent GOP State Auditor of Accounts Tom Salmon Jr. is running for re-election. The GOP has unified behind Salmon Jr. The Democrats have no announced or potential candidates. GOP HOLD.

Attorney General: Incumbent Democratic Attorney General Bill Sorrell is running for re-election. The Democrats have unified behind Sorrell. The GOP has no announced or potential candidates. DEM HOLD.

US Senate: Incumbent Democratic US Senator Pat Leahy is running for re-election. On the Democratic side, Leahy and Physician Daniel Freilich are in the running. The GOP has unified behind Lumber Store Owner Len Britton. On the Independent side, Cris Ericson and John LaPierre Jr. are in the running. I expect Leahy to trounce Freilich in the Primary and Britton, Ericson, and LaPierre Jr. in the General. DEM HOLD.

VT-AL: Incumbent Democratic Congressman Peter Welch is running for re-election. On the Democratic side, Welch and Teacher Dan Weintraub are in the running. The GOP has no announced or potential candidates. DEM HOLD.

COMMENTS

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  • malbis

    are you assuming a generic Dem beating the GOP candidate for Lt. Governor and making that a Dem pickup?

    And why are you assuming, in the wake of Massachusetts, that the GOP won’t be able to recruit candidates–and good candidates–for races where the GOP has no announced candidate?

    I mean, even if there is a broad shift nationwide, I can see that Leahy is about as safe as anybody can be–but why are you expecting Dem wins against unannounced GOP challengers?

    Brown winning was very much of a game-changer. Even more so than the 1994 situation.

    From the 1940 feature film Ghost Breakers, starring the late, great, Bob Hope and Paulette Goddard:

    Scientist: “It?s worse than horrible, because a Zombie has no will of his own. You see them some times, walking around blindly with dead eyes, following orders, not knowing what they do, not caring.”

    Bob Hope: “You mean, like Democrats?”

    • http://conservativestateproject.blogspot.com/ SE-779

      These are preliminary predictions. They will change as the races fully develop.

  • http://www.AmericanThinker.com Hammer2008

    As the VT GOP is uniting behind Len Britton, we all should make sure the DSCC dumps a ton of money trying to defend Leaky Leahy’s Senate seat.

    http://www.lenbritton.com/

    I like how when I Googled “len britton for senate”, Google provided me the “Oops! This link appears to be broken” page not found screen.

  • http://www.AmericanThinker.com Hammer2008

    A good local news article from The Bennington Banner here:
    https://www.benningtonbanner.com/ci_13947525

    (if I could figure out how to block quote in the comments I would, alas, from the article)

    “He said he called state Republican Party officials to see who was challenging Leahy. When nobody was, he quickly made up his mind. I said, ?Well, I?ll do it,?” Britton said.

    So why run against the third most senior member of the Senate? Leahy, now in his 35th year in the Senate, is chairman of the Judiciary Committee and ranks high on the powerful appropriations committee.

    Britton said his reasoning is quite simple — the timing is right for him and he believes Leahy matches what he most loathes about the political system.

    “I think Pat Leahy is the poster child for the political class, the entrenched, career politician who spends more time inside the beltway then in their own home state,” he said.

    (snip)

    “Britton believes he will need more than $1 million to compete with Leahy, who has already banked nearly $3 million. He?s not expected a great deal of support from the national party. “We met with some folks and they were, I think, fairly amused. But, after they heard me out they said, ?well, good luck with that, we hope that you give Mr. Leahy a run for his money,?” he said.

    And he isn?t expecting the likes of former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, “an interesting phenomenon,” to come calling, but didn?t say he would welcome her, either. “The notion of her ever calling me up is just so off the charts, it hasn?t even occurred to me,” Britton said.