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My Take On the 2010 TX Races

By: SE-779 (Diary)  |  February 28th, 2010 at 04:36 PM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

Here’s a rundown of how I think the TX races will go:

Governor: Incumbent GOP Governor Rick Perry is running for re-election. On the GOP side, Perry, US Senator Kay Bailey Hutchinson, and Wharton County GOP Chairwoman Debra Medina are in the running. On the Democratic side, Physician Alma Ludivina Aguado, Teacher Felix Alvarado, Private Investigator Bill Dear, College Professor Clement Glenn, Homebuilder Star Locke, Businessman Farouk Shami, and Houston Mayor Bill White are in the running. On the Libertarian side, Katherine Youngblood Glass, Kenneth Griffin, former Frisco City Councilman Steve Nichols, MJ Smith, and Ed Tidwell are in the running. On the Independent side, David Carpenter, Businessman Fran Cavanagh, Curtis Hartfield, USAF Veteran Thomas Helm, Student Stephen McGee, Consultant Louis Podesta, Kenneth Richardson, Tea Party Activist Dale Robertson, John Roland Ross, Bartender Les Sanderfer, and Surveyor Kevin Sill are in the running. I expect Perry to escape a runoff 51-27-22 over Hutchinson and Medina. I expect White to demolish the opposition, and lose to Perry 55-42. GOP HOLD.

Lieutenant Governor: Incumbent GOP Lieutenant Governor David Dewhurst is running for re-election. The GOP has unified behind Dewhurst. On the Democratic side, Democratic National Vice Chair Linda Chavez-Thompson, former Travis County DA Ronnie Earle, and Restaurant Owner Marc Katz are in the running. On the Libertarian side, Computer Engineer Scott Jamieson and Computer Technician Todd Minor are in the running. I expect Earle to defeat Thompson and Katz 59-36-5, and lose to Dewhurst 53-43. GOP HOLD.

Attorney General: Incumbent Attorney General Greg Abbott is running for re-election. The GOP has unified behind Abbott. The Democrats have unified behind Community Organizer Barbara Ann Radfonsky. On the Libertarian side, Businessman Barry Cooper and Computer Programmer Jon Roland are in the running. The Independents have unified behind Manager Ruben Torres. I expect Abbot to defeat Radfonsky 70-26. GOP HOLD.

State Comptroller: Incumbent GOP State Comptroller Susan Combs is running for re-election. The GOP has unified behind Combs. The Democrats have no announced or potential candidates. The Constitution Party has unified behind Data Systems Manager Alan Marsh. The Greens have unified behind ’08 Congressional Candidate Ed Lindsey. The Libertarians have unified behind former Pharmaceutical Research Scientist Mary Ruwart. Combs will crush the opposition. GOP HOLD.

State Land Commissioner: Incumbent GOP State Land Commissioner Jerry Patterson is running for re-election. The GOP has unified behind Patterson. On the Democratic side, former Henderson County Justice of the Peace Bill Burton and former State Senator Hector Uribe are in the running. The Libertarians have unified behind James Holder. The Democratic Primary is a tossup. Patterson will defeat whoever the Democrats nominate. GOP HOLD.

State Agriculture Commissioner: Incumbent GOP State Agriculture Commissioner Tood Staples is running for re-election. The GOP has unified behind Staples. On the Democratic side, Country Singer Kinky Friedman and Whitehouse School Board Member Hank Gilbert are in the running. On the Libertarian side, Rick Donaldson and Leonard Nelson are in the running. I expect Friedman to smash his banjo upside Gilbert’s head 64-36, and lose to Staples 60-40. GOP HOLD.

State Railroad Commissioner: Incumbent GOP State Agriculture Commissioner Victor Carrillo is running for re-election. On the GOP side, Carrillo and Accountant David Porter are in the running. The Democrats have unified behind Attorney Jeff Weems. The Libertarians have unified behind Roger Gary. I expect Carrillo to defeat Porter 91-9, and defeat Weems and Gary 61-35-4. GOP HOLD.

US Congress: The GOP holds districts 1-3, 5-8, 10-13, 19, 21-22, 24, 26, and 31-32. The Democrats will hold 9, 15-16, 18, 20, and 27-30.

TX-04: Incumbent GOP Congressman Ralph Hall is running for re-election. On the GOP side, Hall, Telecommunications Executive Steve Clark, Businessmen John Cooper and Jerry Hall, Auto Racing Parts Company Owner Lou Gigliotti, and College Professor Joshua Kowert are in the running. The Democrats have unified behind former Hopkins County Attorney VaLinda Hathcox. The Libertarians have unified behind Realtor Jim Prindle. I expect Hall to crush all the opposition and crush Hathcox 66-34. GOP HOLD.

TX-14: Incumbent GOP Congressman Ron Paul is running for re-election. On the GOP side, Paul, School District Administrator John Gay, Business Consultant Tim Graney, and Chemical Worker Gerald Wall are in the running. On the Democratic side, Teacher Jeff Cherry, Attorney Winston Cochran, and Galena Park Police Chief Robert Pruett are in the running. The Libertarians have unified behind Attorney Eugene Flynn. The Independents have unified behind Auditor John Thomas Merrifield. Paul will crush Gay, Graney, and Wall 71-21-6-2. Pruett will win 87-9-4 over Cochran and Cherry. Paul will defeat Pruett 72-25. GOP HOLD.

TX-17: Incumbent Democratic Congressman Chet Edwards is running for re-election. The Democrats have unified behind Edwards. On the GOP side, Businessmen Rob Curnock and Bill Flores, Nurse Timothy Delasandro, University Official David McIntyre, and Developer Chuck Wilson are in the running. The Libertarians have unified behind Richard Kelly. On the Independent side, Retiree Tommy Smith and Truck Driver Dennis Yokie are in the running. I expect Curnock to emerge and defeat Edwards 51-47. GOP GAIN.

TX-23: Incumbent Democratic Congressman Ciro D. Rodriguez is running for re-election. On the Democratic side, Rodriguez and Iraq War Veteran Miguel Ortiz are in the running. On the GOP side, Investment consultant David Aquilar, Attorney Francisco Canceso, Podiatrist Joseph Gould, former CIA officer Will Hurd, retired Attorney Mike Kueber, and Physician Robert Lowery are in the running. On the Libertarian side, Jessie Bonley and IT Consultant Martin Nitschke are in the running. On the Independent side, Army Veteran Isaac Gallegos, Collections Agent James McCoy, and Businessman Craig Stephens are in the running. Rodriguez will defeat Ortiz 79-21. Canceso will win his Primary and defeat Rodriguez 52-48. GOP GAIN.

TX-25: Incumbent Democratic Congressman Lloyd Doggett is running for re-election. The Democrats have unified behind Doggett. On the GOP side, Opthamologist Donna Campbell and Environmental Contractor George Morovich are in the running. On the Libertarian side, Businessman Cory Bruner and General Contractor Jim Stutsman are in the running. On the Independent side, Pastor Dirk Edward Bauer and Sam Brannon are in the running. I expect Campbell to emerge 54-46 and defeat Doggett 51-49. GOP GAIN.

COMMENTS

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  • scarlos

    That’s Downtown Austin, and Dogget has been winning with 2/3rds of the vote the last few elections.

    Not that I wouldn’t mind this guy gone, it’s just that I think we have a better shot in TX-27 (Corpus Christi), where the Incumbent only won 58% in 2008 against nominal opposition in a district Bush won by a couple of points in 2004.

    • http://thesandsinstitute.org Vassar Bushmills

      VB

      • scarlos

        Dogget is in not only a reasonably safe district, but assuming we unseat him this year, the redistricting process will more or less guarantee him or another equally Liberal Democrat a newer, safer district around Austin. I’d much rather focus on beating the 3 Hispanic Democrats in the Rio Grande Valley (15th, 27th, and 28th) who all had their districts go for Bush, but have been generally ignored by National Republicans.

        If we want to make Headway with Hispanics voters, there’s really no better place than there for us to start.

  • Menlo

    I just discovered Tincy Miller has decided to run for re-election after all. This woman MUST be defeated in the primary for SBOE in district 12 in favor of George Clayton.

    I wish I had known sooner. The sad part is that she is the establishment candidate with all the money and name-recognition. I don’t know how primary voters make their decisions on these less-known races; but if it is by virtue of incumbency, such people should be barred entirely from primary voting.

    If anyone in her North Texas district is reading, PLEASE vote George Clayton tomorrow!

  • Menlo

    The state legislature matters more than the governor, who is largely a figurehead. If we don’t see a good house cleaning in Austin, particularly among house Republicans, and a different speaker (one the media elites and liberal Democrats don’t love), it would make no difference if the Democrat were elected governor.

  • http://travismonitor.blogspot.com Freedoms Truth

    That is where the action will be. The GOP will sweep the board statewide, but the State Lege is surprisingly close Dem vs GOP for a Republican leaning state.

    This year we may see many State Rep races heat up and we may see a shift to the GOP in many districts.

    And yes, we can win TX25 (Doggett), it is ripe for a change due to a better candidate (Campbell) and better conditions, including Doggett’s arrogant response to opponents of socialized healthcare.

    PS. Dont even bother mentioning LP candidates, as they invariably serve the purpose of peeling off 4% of the pro-liberty vote, just making it harder for the GOP lege candidates in close races… about half a dozen Dem State Reps won races with *UNDER* 50% of the vote in 2008. Yup, we’d have a more solid GOP majority if the LP werent in these races.

  • Menlo

    However, having more Republicans is no good if the same Polo Road RINOs remain and the same speaker is chosen.

  • Richard Mullins

    now that it seems to me that his man opponent is an idiot. I’m sure the 82nd Ledge is going to be quite different the one before it.

  • Menlo

    Without a poll, it’s impossible to know how anyone is doing.