My quick handicapping of Democratic at-risk Senate races in 2014.

    Since Glenn Reynolds asked, here’s my current assessment of at-risk Democratic Senators in 2014*. Bear in mind: while I generally got the House right in 2010 and 2012, I overestimated our Senate performance by a couple of seats in both years and of course got the 2008 and 2012 Presidential elections wrong. So, you know, grain of salt and all of that. Alaska Mark Begich | Read More »

    Nancy Pelosi comes out strongly for… limiting federal court jurisdiction over the states?

    No, really: when asked a question about the debt ceiling/so-called “fiscal cliff” today Nancy Pelosi decided to respond by talking about how she was on the side of the Eleventh Amendment.  For those of you who need reminding, that’s the one that limits the ability of federal courts to permit private citizens in one state from suing other states as a whole (they can still | Read More »

    The Art of Compromise

    There is incessant talk of the need for conservatives to compromise on their principles, even though Democrats have never showed a willingness to compromise on any of their sacred tenets.  However, there is little thought offered by the wizards of smart in the Republicans Party as to the meaning of compromise and how to effectively pursue one. Let’s excogitate over the definition of compromise. Compromise | Read More »

    21 Thoughts and Observations on the Election

    1)      Obama won by running a divisive wedge issues-based campaign in the right locations, in conjunction with a killer ground game.  He ran up huge margins with blacks in VA and OH.  He played the amnesty card with Hispanics in CO, NV, and FL.  He played the war on women card with white women in NH, WI, and IO.  But wedge issues, such as immigration | Read More »

    Not What If – What Next (Part I: Morphine)


    It was 2008, and Bill Whittle was an intelligent man deeply confounded. He wondered how in the heck people could consider voting for Junior Senator, Barack Obama as America’s next president. He finally hit on a valid analogy. He saw people in sudden, acute economic desperation and compared them to a patient in acute kidney distress. The white-hot pain gets to be intense; it shuts down your ratiocination. You fall deeply in love with the dude who promises you the shot of pain-killer which was exactly what Candidate Obama then promised. But why continue in 2012?

    Well, let’s say the pain gets to be chronic. You’re still hurting forty days later, the doctor can’t fix it and the bills are stacked to your chin so you have to go to work hurting. You’d better take a little something and maybe put a stick between your teeth and suck it up. President Obama was overjoyed to hand out the little blue happy pills. Food Stamp enrollment shot up. Welfare benefits were extended, requirements for welfare reform got waived and disability applications grew faster than job creation. Such is the pharmacological brilliance of the Obama Economy. I’m not seeing any cures out there, but he’s sure got a new pill for whatever puts a gimp in your walk and makes it clear you can only get that little, magical pill from him.

    It turned into a societal analog to what Operations Research Analysts describe as an absorbing state. Without getting too technical and boring you to sleep with a rap about Markov Chains, an absorbing state is a place where some object or system lands and then can’t get out. It’s like O’Hare Airport on an evening with mixed precipitation. You can plan whatever you like, but as Bob Dylan once sang “You ain’t goin’ nowhere.” You get there and you’d better love Big Brother. He owns you and your vote lock, stock and barrel.

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    Equipoise And Self-Discovery Leads To Victory

    Tomorrow — or I guess today — comes the cleanup; when thousands, perhaps millions, of right-wing heads explode, it makes quite a mess. Also, notice that the polls were right. I wonder if I can get invited when Nate Silver is sworn in as president? OK, somewhat more seriously: one big thing that just happened was that the real America trumped the “real America”. And it’s also the election that lets us ask, finally, “Who cares what’s the matter with Kansas?”

    – Paul Krugman just being his lovable self. (HT: NYT)

    I admit defeat. To the extent that I proudly wear the vaunted jersey of Team Conservative and represent the hopes, dreams and values of our movement, I just got bread-trucked. And then the truck backed-up and did a few doughnuts on my meticulously-manicured lawn. I suck the odious dregs of vituperation and defeat through a sipping straw and hereby congratulate President Obama on his victory.

    I do that to clearly and completely disassociate myself from the debasing and auto-beclowning conduct displayed by Mr. Krugman above. I hate doing it. But I choose to lose in the matter that befits a gentleman.

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    An Election Night Primer on the House Races

    An Election Night Primer on the House Races

    There’s been a lot of attention focused on the race for the Senate this year.  The House races, on the other hand, have become a forgotten footnote on the 2012 election map.  The reason is quite simple: Republicans will retain control of the House, irrespective of the outcome of the presidential election. At present, Republicans control 242 seats and Democrats control 193 seats (a few | Read More »

    Rep. Keith Ellison Out of Control

    Democrat Representative Keith Ellison currently serves Minnesota’s 5th congressional district as the first Muslim ever to be elected to Congress. Previously there have been questions concerning his potential ties to radical Islam, but as voters take to the polls Tuesday they may want to consider his behavior of late. During a recent radio interview with his Republican challenger, Chris Fields, Ellison twice called his opponent | Read More »

    Al Gore V. Al Qaeda on Why We Had Hurricane Sandy

    It seems that Al Qaeda has a sudden fascination in Tropical Meso-scale Meteorology. It involves large, convective, cyclonic systems that involve low barometric pressure and vast amounts of flooding and rain. They actually became cheerleaders for greater destruction. Like Medieval Japanese who believed that typhoons were sent from heaven to destroy Mongolian invasion fleets*, they cheered for injuries as Sandy roared ashore. Some examples of their enlightened follow below.

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    2012 shaping up like 2004, on the Generic Congressional Ballot level.

    2012 shaping up like 2004, on the Generic Congressional Ballot level.

    I spent perhaps a bit too much time this morning trying to put the spreadsheet below into graphical form: Pollster Time R D R +/- NPR Oct 3/4 43 43 0 NPR Sept 4/4 45 48 -3 Politico Oct 4/4 46 45 1 Politico Oct 3/4 46 46 0 Politico Oct 2/4 44 46 -2 Politico Oct 1/4 45 46 -1 Politico Sept 4/4 44 | Read More »

    The 47%

    One of the most portentous comments ever made by a candidate concerning his own campaign prospects was Romney’s off-the-record remark about Obama having an automatic 47% floor of support.  The media attack dogs lambasted him for his “out of touch” sentiments.  The reality is that Romney hit the nail on the head months before the pollsters would coalesce around that number. Let’s confront an inconvenient | Read More »

    Partner of Mark Pocan (D CAND, WI-02) sent threatening texts to attacked Kyle Wood (staffer to R-CAND). [UPDATE: Story recanted.]

    [FURTHER UPDATE: Media Trackers retracts, apologizes for putting out the story. My apologies to Mr. Frank for my reaction; it was obviously uncalled for.] [UPDATE: The police are now reporting that the staffer’s story has been recanted. Absent any evidence to the contrary, this would include the alleged text messages: I look forward with some interest to whether that, at least, can be verified. And | Read More »

    Barack Obama’s Halloween Theatrics

    Barack Obama’s Presidential Campaign would like the children to sing to you. Relax and enjoy.

    Mitt Romney may have nothing left to fear from his challenger, Barack Obama except fear itself. Barack Obama could run for reelection using all the wonderful things he’s done for America in his first term of office. He could fill us all to the inebriated brim with hope about his ambitious, progressive, forward-looking and unprecedented 2nd term agenda. Oh, wait…Nope, he’ll be scaremongering from here until we go to the polls.

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    Monday Morning Quarterbacks Bother Poor Leon Panetta

    You know what? SECDEF Leon Panetta is way too important for any of you to criticize. Unlike the rabble, he knows about running operations. He manages risk. He bristles at the Monday Morning Quarterbacks who deign to question his perspicacity and strategic brilliance in how he handled the tragic events of September 11, 2012 in Benghazi, Libya. He also has a rather pompous 4th point of contact in need of cover and concealment. He throws General Ham, and General Dempsey under the bus below.

    “(The) basic principle is that you don’t deploy forces into harm’s way without knowing what’s going on; without having some real-time information about what’s taking place,” Panetta said, according to The Associated Press. “And as a result of not having that kind of information, the commander who was on the ground in that area, Gen. Ham, Gen. Dempsey and I felt very strongly that we could not put forces at risk in that situation.”

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    A Wide Electoral/Popular Vote Split Won’t Happen

    There is an emerging narrative percolating throughout the political world; the prospect that Romney could win the popular vote but lose the Electoral College.  The theory is predicated on the seemingly contradictory data between state and national polls.  National polls seem to show Romney with a consistent 2-4% lead, while state polls show the candidates tied or Obama slightly ahead in Ohio, Iowa, and Wisconsin. | Read More »