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Canadian results

Conservatives won on technicalities, but Canadians rejected the opposition

By: Soren Dayton (Diary)  |  October 15th, 2008 at 12:31 AM  | 

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Several things to note from the Canadian elections.

The Conservatives picked up 19 seats, but only 1.1% of the vote and the lowest turnout in Canadian history. The most significant feature of this election was the collapse of the Liberal Party out west and in Ontario. (they actually beat many polls in Quebec) The socialist party, the New Democratic Party or NDP, cut into Liberal margins, giving Conservatives a number of ridings around the country. Furthermore, the Liberals were reduced to a regional party, getting virtually no seats west of Ontario.

That said, this election was called before the economy in the US and Europe melted down. Had this not happened, there would be a clear Conservative majority.

Look for a leadership election in the Liberal Party. Look for an extended minority government as the Liberals cannot afford (in the financial, and also political sense) another election. The big tests for this government will be handling the economic crisis (which will inevitably drift into a recession because of a drop off in US consumer activity) and his handling of the negotiations of the next international climate agreement.

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  • Andromsoft

    Good to hear.

    It is worth noting though, that even the Canadian conservative party is far to the left of our Democratic party – or rather, Democrats are to the right of Canadian conservatives (e.g. even the most ardent Canadian conservative politician believes that universal healthcare is a fundamental human right).

    Certainly puts things into perspective.

    • Soren_Dayton

      They implemented tax cuts, staying in Afghanistan, and very weak tea on climate change.

      And they won’t nationalize the banking industry.

      Give them more credit.

  • Xanadu

    The Canadian results are in line with a number of countries, like Germany and France, who have changed from a far left government to a more moderate right government because socialism is a pyramid scheme that can not be sustained.

    In America we have the most liberal senator with all kinds of socialist baggage running against a moderate senator famous and infamous for crossing party lines.

    Hopefully the improvement in the financial numbers will improve McCain/Palin numbers and the western trend away from ever higher taxes
    and dependence on government will continue in America.

  • shooflyguy68

    of the vote overall. They have a large plurality in the Parliament because of the way Canada elects MPs, not because most Canadians wanted the Conservatives in power. The bottom line is that it is good news that the Left is split 3 ways and that the Bloc Quebecois has such big support in Quebec.

    If the Conservatives govern well, they might have a chance to further fracture the Left and increase their ranks to become a true majority government in the next election. If they govern poorly or if the economy tanks, the parties on the Left may have a chance to come together.

  • Republicanuck

    1.) Don’t believe media reports based on polling.
    2-10.) Re-read Lesson 1.

    • Neil_Stevens

      Ask any Republican in office and they’re for Social Security. But that doesn’t mean they’re ‘for’ it for the same reasons or with the same intensity that Democrats are for it.

      • Andromsoft

        You can check out their founding principles if you like, including: a commitment to progressive social policy, the importance of government-sanctioned welfare/wealth redistribution, a very leftist focus on green politics and environmentalism, and, of course, universal health care. Plus their history on gun control is abysmal, implicitly supporting existing gun registration laws on handguns.

        Granted, they are more libertarian than democrats, believing in small government and low taxes, but their overall policy is one which would be too liberal for most of our moderate democrats to stomach.

        • Doc_Holliday

          sign me up!

          • Neil_Stevens
  • Alberta

    You need to be more real man, cmon.

    The Liberals havent been a regional party ever. They get votes in Ontario and Quebec, while being traditionally able to win some seats in BC and a few in the Maritimes. They do terrible in the prairies, and never win in Alberta. The way the parliament is set up you dont really need to win votes west of Ontario.

    That said, the Liberals were utterly humiliated last night. Im not that old, in my early 20′s, but I can remember when the NDP was a fringe party with 5% of the vote federally. They got about 20% last night, which for them, was huge. Who would have ever thought Taliban Jack Layton would be the guy to grow the party? Soren correctly identified where the vote came from, Liberal party voters. This essentially means Stephen Dion, the lamest, dorkiest, nerdiest politician in Canada, who the Liberals picked for inside baseball reasons, is done.

    He knows it too. When he was making his way up to the stage of the venue he was giving his ‘victory speach’ (he won his riding) Dion snapped at reporters, and even gave one a girly little push. Unbecoming of an egghead. Anyways, while the Liberls have to get a new leader, this will turn out to be a bad thing in the long run for the Conservatives. Dion is a fool, and as long as he is the leader of the Liberals they are hapless. In two years, with a new leader who actually knows what politics is (are?) and how to play it (them?) and maybe some full coffers, who knows.

    Now for the fun part. While we have laughed at the Liberals misfortunes and gave a reluctant hat tip to the communist (That would be Layton and his NDP) we now need to talk about Canadas favourite radical (Morgenteller? Shh!) Elizabeth May. For those who dont know, she runs the Green Party. She is also a bonafide idiot. Politically, I dont mean to infer that enviropaganism is idiotic. It is, but I didnt mean to imply it. Ms May has been pumped up by the media here, I would suspect through their own boredom, into a somewhat national figure. Usually, fringe nobodies arent talked about, but because of a shady backroom deal involving May and Dion (Dion didnt campaign or run candidates in her district, but we will get to that) people where watching her race. Also, because a Liberal MP had switched to the Green Party while in parlaiment, people where eager to see if they would do anything. Well, Ms May chose to run in the riding where the incumbant MP is…Peter Mckay! For those who dont know, Mckay is the Minister of Foreign Affiars!!! SHE RAN AGAINST SOMEONE WHO IS IN STEPHEN HARPERS CABINET! This is the definition of stupidity. So watching her go down in flames was fun. Especially because she put her party in debt to run for defeat. This could end the Green Party.

    Soren, I take issue with your analysis when it comes to the economy. While I live in Alberta, I have family and friends in Quebec. And lets be real about this, if Harper was to get a majority, it would have been through gaining seats in Quebec. Quebecers were pissed when Harper cut the Art Funding Program (yes I know he really didnt but the Conservatives did a bad job of defending themselves so…) and the negative noise out of that province scared the Conservatives off. They had almost no soldiers on the ground in Quebec (the Liberals didnt either but thats because of the Sponsorship Scandal…man look it up yourself) and because of their non existant politcal machine in La Belle provance the Bloc Quebecois (the seperatist party we allow to run federally…yah I know, only in Canada) were able to basically run the table. This was the reason he didnt get his majority. If Harper had spent the money in Quebec, we may be looking at a majority today.

    To conclude this long post, let me just say that in Canada, no one is happy. Conservatives wanted a majority. This majority was denied to them by a seperatist party in Quebec. People out west, in Alberta, are not happy. Liberals thought, because as one commentor pointed out, the polls where either really badly done or where lying, they had a chance to form the head of the minority government. They were embarressed by the NDP. Liberals will be out for Dions blood. They arent happy. The Greens got whipped out, so radicals all over the nation will be even more angry. The Bloc and the NDP are the real winners here.

    It would have been real nice if Harper got his majority…

  • joe6pack

    Tell me there not happy with there socialism have been looking down at us with the hopes of change. it looks like they put there vote to work.

    • Alberta

      The Conservative Party may not be the Reform party, but thats because they are in it to win it.

      Andro, what are you talking about when you say the Conservatives are to the left of the Democrats? It simply isnt true. In fact, its so not true that it makes me want to call you names.

      Harper has cut taxes and has tried to limit spending when he was politically able to. His party has tried enacted legislation to give rights to the unborn. Harper was the one of the first, if not they first, Western leader to express solidarity with Israel during the Lebanon schirmish (spelling?) which is huge because Canadian leaders arent known for expressing support for Israel. He has cut the federal funding for activist groups (yah Americans, thats how wacky it is up here, the government funds groups who are only around to critic government) and has even made our taxes less punitive and more fair.

      Harper got his name in politics for being the writer of the “Firewall Doctrine.” While I wont explain it here, it implies that the author, Harper, has a strong individualist, freedomcentric worldview. He is not a proponent for strong central government.

      You know what, Andro, just thinking about it, I could probably make a case for the fact that our Liberal party is to the right of your Democratic party.

      Dems want full controll of the banks. Our Libs dont. Dems want full access to abortion, so do our Libs, Dems want universal health, so do our Libs but even our Libs recognize our system needs reform. Dems want punitive taxes (raise cap gains ect). Our Libs dont. In fact, the Liberals wanted to reduce the income tax (albiet with the implementation of a carbon tax, but your Dem want a carbon tax and income tax).

      You cant say things that arent true Andro.

      • Republicanuck

        I am a Conservative, but consider myself a centrist. The current Conservative party rose from the ashes of the former Progressive Conservatives and merged with the Reform Party and rebadged themselves as Conservatives, but in outlook, they are to the right of US Democrats, and probably somewhere to the left of mainstream Republicans. One of the big differences between Canadian & US political governance lies in the lack of actual checks and balances between the executive and legislative branches, so when you have a majority government in Canada, you essentially have an elected dictatorship, free to run its agenda without any effective opposition for five years. Minority governments are forced into compromise and negotiation, which basically forces better and fewer initiatives, and I and I am sure many other Canadians are just fine with that.

        The “elected dictatorship” model may unfortunately be precisely what the US is about to find itself stuck with in the scenario of an Obama Presidency and congressional supermajorities in the House and Senate.