Pres-NH: Plumbing the Recent Polls
A slew of polls and what they show in NH
By Adam C Posted in 2008 — Comments (14) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
In the last 24 hours, there are several new polls that tell us a lot about NH Rs and Is and the primary on Tuesday. Because the race is functionally a two man event, I will focus on McCain and Romney.
Data is below the fold, conclusions are here:
1) McCain leads most polls among likely R primary voters. The RCP average shows a 32.7% to 27.1% race with McCain leading by 4.6%. But with the exception of the ARG poll (+14), all the polls show a close race that could go either way.
2) Among only registered Rs, it is a toss-up that leans toward McCain. CNN Poll shows McCain ahead 33-27, ARG shows McCain ahead 37-27, Concord Monitor shows McCain up 32-30, and Rasmussen has Romney up 32-29. It's important to note that contrary to much of the press coverage, McCain won registered Rs 44-35 in 2000. If the election were today, it seems McCain won will Rs and Is in NH just as in 2000.
3) There is a small gender gap with Romney getting higher female support. Conversely, McCain does better with men.
4) McCain has the highest favorability rating of the R candidates. He has the highest favorability among NH GOPers, NH likely R voters, and all NH voters (tied with Obama). The biggest difference is among all NH voters where CNN finds McCain has a 71/22 favorability rating and Romney has a 39/53 favorability rating.
5) Romney is winning in areas near the MA border. Both Hillsborough and Rockingham County seem to be adopting their next door neighbor governor as the Suffolk Poll finds Romney winning both by 17 points over McCain.
6) Finally, almost all impression questions have improved for McCain over the past 2-3 weeks while Romney has stayed still. CNN asked about experience, electability, who can bring change, and who represented the values of Rs and on almost every question McCain has improved since late December while Romney held onto his supporters without falling or rising.
Overall, this slew of polls must make the McCain campaign happy. Momentum is on his side and his lead while not insurmountable is enough for the campaign to be confident. Futures markets have taken this to heart giving McCain around an 80% chance of winning. It's great to have so many numbers to plumb. I have included most of the internal numbers from all the post-IA polls below the fold. Enjoy.
CNN Poll (previous poll in late Dec 2007). Here is a graphical representation of the CNN poll over the past year on NH.
Who vote for in primary (Rs only):
McCain 33 (29)
Romney 27 (29)
Who best represents values of Rs (Rs only):
McCain 31 (29)
Romney 26 (29)
Which R has best chance of winning general (Rs only):
McCain 29 (28) (10)
Romney 28 (38) (38)
Giuliani 16 (16) (30)
Which R has right experience to be Pres (Rs only):
McCain 40 (40)
Romney 25 (27)
Which R will bring needed change to US (Rs only) (previous poll is Sept 2007):
McCain 23 (13)
Romney 23 (25)
Fav/Unfav among Rs (previous poll is Sept 2007):
McCain 81/13 (63/24)
Romney 65/28 (65/24)
Obama 54/36
Clinton 15/80
Fav/Unfav all voters:
McCain 71/22
Romney 39/53
Will you vote in R or D primary (among I voters) (note previous polls are from late Dec and mid Dec):
Repub 44 (37) (40)
Demo 56 (63) (60)
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Suffolk Tracking Poll (previous is day prior):
Overall Likely R voters:
McCain 26 (25)
Romney 30 (29)
Hillsborough County (near MA):
McCain 21
Romney 38
Rockingham County (near MA):
McCain 24
Romney 41
These two counties make up half of likely R voters in the primary.
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Zogby Poll:
Overall Likely R voters:
McCain 31 (32)
Romney 32 (30)
Which primary will you vote in (Is only):
Repub 25% (approx)
Demo 40% (approx)
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ARG Tracking Poll (previous is Jan 1-3):
Overall Likely R Voters:
McCain 39 (35)
Romney 25 (25)
Rs Only (73% of R primary voters):
McCain 37
Romney 27
Is Only (27% of R primary voters):
McCain 44
Romney 19
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Rasmussen Reports Poll:
Overall Likely R Voters:
McCain 32
Romney 30
Fav/Unfav (Likely R Voters):
McCain 72/26
Romney 65/34
Men only:
McCain 33
Romney 29
Women only:
McCain 31
Romney 30
18-29:
McCain 31
Romney 30
30-39:
McCain 27
Romney 33
40-49:
McCain 28
Romney 31
50-64:
McCain 36
Romney 30
65+:
McCain 39
Romney 32
Republicans:
McCain 29
Romney 32
Other (non-Rs):
McCain 39
Romney 24
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Concord Monitor Poll.
Overall Likely R Voters (previous poll mid Dec):
McCain 35 (17)
Romney 29 (31)
Men:
McCain 37
Romney 26
Women:
McCain 33
Romney 32
Registered Rs:
McCain 32
Romney 30
Undeclared Voters:
McCain 44
Romney 26
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Pres-NH: Plumbing the Recent Polls 14 Comments (0 topical, 14 editorial, 0 hidden) Post a comment »
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Plus any poll of GOP voters on the weekend is going to be off. Friday is the last good one we will have and Monday will be pretty much pointless.
______________________________
"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777
was the one that he cut McCain's lead in.
Romney 08
Republicans:
McCain 81/13
Romney 65/28
All voters:
McCain 71/22
Romney 39/53
Ouch. You can't buy likeability. One can change his record and his positions on issues to make them more appealing to some constituencies but that will eventually become a killer. Romney didn't convinced the evangelicals in Iowa and he isn't convincing moderate conservatives and independents leaning republican in NH. He's just unlikeable, he has no chance in general elections.
The likability of the Republican candidate among Democrats and a portion of the Independents is going to be zero during the general election anyway. The only number that matters is the (R) at this point. They will (mostly) stick by their assessment when the MSM and the Democrats are on the attack.
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Underlying most arguments against the free market is a lack of belief in freedom itself. - Milton Friedman
then should the fact that 28% of NH Rs find Romney unfavorable be something to worry about?
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Donate to the Rs in Close Senate Races through Slatecard
If it was 50%, I'd be worried. It's not like these numbers are carved in stone, either. They will change. I think likability wise we would be just fine with either candidate in NH.
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Underlying most arguments against the free market is a lack of belief in freedom itself. - Milton Friedman
The summary of the polls is that it is a close race, with McCain's lead narrowly outside the margin or error when all of the polls are considered. I consier the ARG poll to be an outlier and thus untrustworthy. This is still a very close race. If I were McCain, I would take heart from the polls, and then go out and campaign as if I was behind in the polls but determined to make up the ground. Take nothing for granted.
Stepping back for a moment however, there are a couple of methods for determining what is happening in close races at very short time intervals to the actual voting. One method is obviously a telephone poll. We can see these results that Adam C has kindly posted. The advantage is that the science is well understood, and different areas of a state can be measured and adjusted for overall expected voter turnout based upon a voter turnout model. The disadvantage is that to get good poll numbers, typically you need more than one night of phone calls to accumulate a significant sample, resulting in time dated results that do not characterize momentum properly.
The second method is in measuring the attendance and enthusiasm of the crowd that shows up at the campaign events. This can be done easily and non-quantitatively be asking observers, such as network producers "Where is the buzz?". The advantage of this method is it provides up to date information, but has some significant disadvantages. The first is that the science is not well worked out, the second is that the attendees don't actually tell the individuals who they are thinking of voting for. I think that a proper exit poll of these events would be good idea, and would provide a type of data that would be very complimentary to the telephone summaries. Unfortunately, I don't think the networks are capable of handling this type of methodology this election cycle.
The third method is a "Frank Lutz" type of focus group. In general, the advantage of this method is getting detailed information of voters thoughts IN THEIR OWN WORDS. However, I feel that Frank's approach is not appropriate for the televised debates, because most people watch these events in their own homes, not with a group, and the group aspect creates distortions. I would strongly recommend that Frank Lutz and Fox News come up with a web-based application, and carefully recruit and screen participants before the event. It is VERY noteworthy that Fox News is much more sophisticated in the selection of the group participants than is say CNN. Remember the "undecided focus group" after the CNN/YouTube debate? Remember the old bag that said that John Edwards would be the best choice? Can you say Democratic infiltration of a Republican group? Compare that to Frank Lutz's question to a group of undecided Iowa Democrats before the election. He asked if any would even consider supporting a Republican. None would. That is a GREAT example of well choosen focus group.
MOlsen6
Proud supporter of McCain '00 and McCain '08
They are consistently in the worst category. Its almost as if they are just noise to provide stochastic resonance. Then do the usual methodology of dropping the poll that deviates the most from the average.
______________________________
"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777
Which is each candidates best, the average is McCain 32.6 and Romney 28.4%. This election is at the will of wheather indies show up for McCain. I am a bit surprised McCain hasn't tried going after Obama.
Romney 08
McCain's lead isn't dependent on how many indies show up. He leads in almost every poll of registered Rs.
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Donate to the Rs in Close Senate Races through Slatecard
is within the margin of error in each poll. So McCain might not not need the indies, but they will sure help him.
Romney 08
covering jan 5-6:
MANCHESTER, N.H. -- The latest WMUR/CNN tracking poll shows that Barack Obama has moved into a significant lead over his Democratic rival, Hillary Clinton.
The poll, taken on Jan. 5 and 6, shows Obama leading Clinton, 39 to 29 percent. John Edwards has slipped to 16 percent from 20 percent, followed by Bill Richardson at 7 percent and Dennis Kucinich at 2 percent.
The poll has a margin of error of 5 percent.
On the Republican side, John McCain has maintained his 6-point lead over Mitt Romney, 32 to 26 percent.
Iowa winner Mike Huckabee has climbed slightly to 14 percent from 11 percent, followed by Rudy Giuliani at 11 percent, Ron Paul at 10 percent, and Duncan Hunter and Fred Thompson at 1 percent.
The Republican poll has a margin of error of 6 percent
I guess this answers mark penn's rhetorical question: Where's the bounce? that he unwisely issued after Iowa.
on the republican side, pretty steady mccain holding a narrow lead over Romney, Huck now in third place ahead of Rudy (ouch) Thompson at 1% (double ouch).
Look good for Mitt though. He took the lead in the Zogby Poll today, cut the McCain lead from 5 to 2, and has kept the lead in the Suffolk Univ./WDHD poll. That ARG looks like a real outlier poll also.
Romney 08