Wisconsin Primary Day Open Thread
McCain Pursues Victory While The Democrats' Quagmire Continues Without An Exit Strategy
By Dan McLaughlin Posted in Miscellanea | Open Thread — Comments (57) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »

Republicans and Democrats go to the polls today in 2004's purplest state.
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3 delegates per each of the 8 Congressional districts are awarded to the winner of that particular district (24 total), and the remaining 16 delegates (10 at-large, 3 bonus, 3 party) go to the statewide winner. The 1/3rd minimum rule shouldn't apply as there are only 2 active candidates and 1 semi-active candidate.
The days aren't incrementing...
on the turnout or what the local TV/radio stations are saying about the primary?
My big concern is Republicans jumping into the Dem race and leaving McCain at the mercy of the more rabid Huck-a-voters.
...but it is sub-zero weather in Wisconsin today.
http://www.weather.com/outlook/driving/interstate/local/USWI0455?from=se...
“.....women and minorities hardest hit”
It will drop off tonight. -2 tonight with a high of like +10 tomorrow and -10 tomorrow night.
Lots of Wii time with the kids.
Worse, my local voting place was moved out of the subdivision, so I can't just wander down and check on it. I was voter #47 at about 7:30 this morning. If my dad would turn on his cell, I could call and ask him; he's working the polls today.
I was voter number 91 at 8:00 AM - in the Fox valley. Steve Kagen's district (Ugh!). I did not wait more that 15 seconds to vote. Traditionally it's busier in the evening in my area - but I was dropping off my kids at school (because I can't, in good concious, have my ten year lug his backpack AND baritone to school in 5 degree temps) so I voted early.
I voted Obama and my wife will vote Hillary!. If all goes well WI will split 50/50 in Dem delegates.
We're both conservative - so we'll vote differently in November. But I'm really hoping for a knock down, drag out at the Dem convention.
Listening to WTMJ-AM news now, and they mentioned Germantown polls were busier than they had been in the past. Of course, since Wisconsin hasn't mattered in the last couple dozen years, that means nothing.
That's the word from the state election officials.
We'll see. It's sunny (for now), but brutal-cold.
My brother and I just voted (1PM central time) at the court house in Monroe County. We're about 25 miles east of La Crosse, WI and the Mississippi river. Right now it's 9 degrees and with the windchill factored in, it's -6. There was a steady stream of people in and out of the court house to vote. When we fed our ballots into the optical scan machine we were number 832 and 833. We didn't wait more than 1 minute to get our ballots and there were 10 voting "stations" set up. We were done in 90 seconds.
We are both conservative, evangelical christians and have voted republican 99% of the time, as does our entire family. Today we both voted for Obama and I'll tell you why - we don't want hillary, bill or their machine getting anywhere near the white house ever again.
Short of a Huckabee miracle, and I mean a "parting of the red sea" or "raising Lazarus from the dead" miracle, McCain will be the republican nominee. The consensus among our church friends and family is quite divided. About half planned to vote for Obama for the above mentioned reasons and the other half were planning to vote for Huckabee to voice their unhappiness and resentment towards McCain.
We basically took advantage of our states open primary system to help put a nail in hillary's coffin. If this had been a close, 2 person republican race we would have voted for Huckabee.
My final comment is this; McCain really needs to choose a VP that is a "home run" in every area and also to fill in his gaps. This time around I sense that the VP choice could be a deal breaker for many people.
.....................
You deserve what you tolerate!
You just helped a man who is TO THE LEFT of Hillary on abortion, and is generally more liberal than her on most things as well.
Who cares if everyone hates her. If she somehow gets to the White House, that will just be all the more reason that Republicans will oppose anything and everything she tries to do.
Voting for Obama was an absolutely terrible decision in every sense of the word.
“.....women and minorities hardest hit”
I am recommending that all of my family in Tarrant and Dallas County vote Hillary next Tuesday.
The only way I change my mind is if McCain does not win WI today.
He's doing what he thinks is best and you're clocking him for who he voted for in a DEMOCRATIC primary.
Ease up a bit.
(you too c17wife .. couldn't figure out how to "reply to" both of you at the same time).
wrong in his reasoning. That's all.
...because I think the results of the Democrat primary impact the GOP's chances in November.
“.....women and minorities hardest hit”
Just try to relax. We're all* on the same side here.
* We do have trolls, but we're working on that :-)
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"If we want to take this party back, and I think we can someday, let’s get to work." – Barry Goldwater
"If she somehow gets to the White House..."
Here's the deal, my friends; If John McCain cannot win in November on his own merits, then why is he going to probably end up as our party's nominee?
Bueller... Bueller... Bueller...
Most seriously - I don't claim to have the right or best answer to that question. Did Karl Rove play the political game so well for so long that our party is now carved up into the disagreeing, unhappy factions that we are? Can McCain be the majority consensus candidate? If he's not, then who didn't run that should have? I don't know the right answers - the historian's and the intellectual's will debate this for years to come.
I understand that some in our party would prefer to run against hillary because she'll unwittingly help us raise lots of money for the fall and hopefully help turn out lots of people to vote against her that are considering staying home because they don't like McCain. But the only way that I can help stop hillary from winning in November is to make sure that she loses the dem nomination. That's my simple answer.
I will most gladly vote for John McCain even though he wasn't my first choice. I am one of the people who do actually understand the importance of the GWOT and the SCOTUS for this election. I wonder if all republicans really realize that several current SC justice's practically have formaldehyde IV's because they're just waiting for a dem president in 2009 who will replace them with another liberal. This election has real historical consequences.
People like Rush Limbaugh and James Dobson and other well known unnamed radio personalities who bash McCain will pay a steep price if a dem wins this fall and screws the SCOTUS and hurts our military strength. Too bad right-wing radio doesn't do their job of rallying the party for the nominee - I'm sooo tired of the daily wining and bitchfest's that go on. Rush and Ann Coulter prefer hillary over McCain? Reeeally? Well, as my mother used to say; "I've warned you, so don't come crying to me when you fall out of that tree and crack your head open." I can't say it any nicer.
I vote every four years for the republican presidential candidate but since my purple (bordering on lavender) state of WI usually goes dem, I basically get cancelled out.
God forbid that any dem gets into the White House. But if John McCain loses in November after our party nominates him and I vote for him, my hands will be clean.
.....................
You deserve what you tolerate!
That is exactly why I voted Obama when I voted here in the Fox Valley. I saw the Clinton machine (with the help of that boob Perot) win once it got the nomination - even though I thought there was no way that idiot from AK would get elected -and there is now way in heck I'm going to let them get that close again.
Obama is an empty suit who makes you feel good while he's taking your money. In the off chance that he get elect POTUS he will be fought tooth nail and 2010 will be a clean sweep for the Repubs in the house and the Senate.
But if any of you think Obama will nominate a SCOTUS judge that's somehow more liberal than Hillary!, you're fooling yourself. Both Dems are bad.
however, I don't know where else to ask this.
I don't understand something. If the President was doing warrantless wiretapping secretively up until 2005, why does he now need Congressional approval?
Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor
Yes, Hillary pulls out the "hunting" line to answer a question on gun ownership in Wisconsin.
Campaigning in Wisconsin before the primary Hillary says her father taught her to shoot (in their Oak park suburb, I guess) and describes a duck shoot in Arkansas (wonder did Hillary bring a book as she did to foot ball games?).
she bagged a banded duck! much applause and some *Cheney jokes* as Hillary tries to portray herself as one of the guys.
That tells you how badly it's going in Wisconsin.
Obama takes it by a narrow margin, McCain wins easily in Wisconsin.
with a rifle! Well, if that was actually her words, I guess we have another Annie on our hands.
Formally known as Deagle... "Golf is a way of life..."
“.....women and minorities hardest hit”
probably their advanced knowledge of firearms rather than her statement in the article that I read. Of course, Hillary could just be lying again.
Formally known as Deagle... "Golf is a way of life..."
...Hillary at one point wanted to join the Marines, but they wouldn't let her.
“.....women and minorities hardest hit”
McCain 59, Huck 42. Counting the Romney delegates, this puts McCain over the number he needs. Huck stays on anyway for a few more weeks, gets embarrassed in Texas.
Obama 54, Clinton 44.
Don't forget about Hawaii!
I thought only people in Illinois got to vote multiple times...
Voted today in my college town of Madison. Seemed to be pretty busy. A lot of students doing same day registration. Too many Obama supporters harassing me with their substance-less handout.s I voted for McCain, I almost crashed the Dem Primary and voted for Hillary to stop the Obamania but I couldn't gather my self to cast a vote for a socialist, not that Obama isn't one himself.
Per the AP:
DEMOGRAPHICS:
As usual, men outnumbered women in Republican primaries while the reverse was true on the Democratic side. About nine in 10 voters in both primaries were white. The Republican electorate was a bit older than the Democratic. Roughly four in 10 in each party were college graduates.
http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5j-rJkxLbJTFVe7_sztS_x_XcNpQwD8UTL7202
“.....women and minorities hardest hit”
More women than men, 60% non-college graduate, 90% white... this is probably not good news for the Obama campaign.
The Fuzzy Puppy of the VRWC. I've been usurped!
Missouri was 76% white, 56% female, 67% non-college graduate.
Connecticut was 59% female, 82% white.
Still, Team Obama is maybe sweating this a little more than they were 24 hours ago.
And if he wins, he's gained nothing?
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"If we want to take this party back, and I think we can someday, let’s get to work." – Barry Goldwater
...would be status quo; a loss, as Moe points out, would be really bad for Team O; a big win (10+ points) would be a pleasant surprise for 'em. That's how I read it, anyway.
I figure that means a 51-48 race and pick 'em.
The Fuzzy Puppy of the VRWC. I've been usurped!
says his exit polls are showing some O-memtum. But I know not to put much stock in theoretical exit polls when there's two-plus hours to go. I'll stick with Obama a few above fifty, Clinton around 45, and a delegate split of maybe 40-34. I'd stake one beer but not a six-pack on it.
Yingling: six pack.
Tilburg's: one beer, maybe two.
Domestic: take the freaking case anyway.
The Fuzzy Puppy of the VRWC. I've been usurped!
...not the numbers.
The Fuzzy Puppy of the VRWC. I've been usurped!
The Fuzzy Puppy of the VRWC. I've been usurped!
He tied (if you use Obama's own total delegate rule-of-thumb for winning NV). :)
The Fuzzy Puppy of the VRWC. I've been usurped!
were underrepresented.
____
CongressCritter™: Never have so few felt like they were owed so much by so many for so little.
According to 2006 census data, 90% is right on the money for white folk.
____
CongressCritter™: Never have so few felt like they were owed so much by so many for so little.
as reported by various pundits is it's a big blowout for Obama, in the 60-40 range.
of course, these are just exit polls, and just rumors at that.
Polls close in Wisconsin at 9PM EST
...what was MD's 61/36, VA's 64/35, and DC's 75/24?
The Fuzzy Puppy of the VRWC. I've been usurped!
I think it comes down to expectations. She was expected to have problems in MD, VA and DC. And she was supposed to engineer some way to come back in WI. If she doesn't, she's supposedly dead in the water.
Erik
(had to re-register here since I haven't posted in forever)
I imagine turnout is pretty low. Nobody at my precinct when I went. Penciled in bubble next to Sen. McCain's name although I considered voting for Billary to try and stop the Obama express. But I stuck with my convictions and made an honest vote.
For those that are voting for Obama even though they will vote R in Nov, what are you thinking?? Have you seen the latest Rasmussen polls that shows McCain doing considerably better against Billary than Obama?? Whatever...
I was #1108. By comparison, in my ward in 2004 there were 1255 total votes cast (40% turnout). So we'll probably have a larger turnout this year.
What's interesting is in the 04 primary, there were 2.5 times as many voters in the dem primary than in the rep primary. But the presidential election went 3239 Bush to 2079 Kerry.
It also says in 04 we had 90% turnout...that seems freaky high, no?
- IJ
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The Dem primary still had some doubt, the R primary had an incumbent president.
and heard other people going into the polling place saying "i can't belive i'm voting for Hillary"! I live in a very conservative area (Brookfield) and it seemed like there would be a decent sized crossover vote for Hillary, so Obama really must have blown out clinton among Democrats.
McCain could win Wisconsin vs Hillary. He has literally no chance vs Obama.
You see, we get to *define* Obama in the eyes of the public between now and November, should he win the nomination.
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"If we want to take this party back, and I think we can someday, let’s get to work." – Barry Goldwater
getting rid of the Clintons once and for all is a for bigger thing to me than the threat of Mr. Hope.
"Nothing works like freedom, Nothing succeeds like liberty"
Kyle
Hillary might squeak by McCain, but Obama will bring in a wave of Democrats to build on their majority in the House and Senate. He will actually get to enact his awful policies while Hillary would struggle to get any kind of consensus, imo. She would arrive weak and only get weaker in the next 4 years and would be prime for defeat in 2012.
Obama as the Democrat nominee will kill the Republican Party for the next decade. IMO, we will become near irrelevant. Hoping for an Obama win is like having a death wish.
The guy has extremely favorable numbers while Hillary has a solid chunk of the public who will never vote for her. I was talking to a couple of VERY high up business people from the Milwaukee area today who lean Republican when voting. Both voted for Obama today and said their candidates of preference were 1.Obama 2.McCain 3.Clinton.
They said it isn't so much the specific issues they look for, but what kind of a leader the guy/gal would be. They thought Obama was a much more inspiring leader than McCain, even if they disagreed with some of his policies. BTW, neither of them would ever, under any circumstances, vote for Hillary.
I don't think anybody could beat Obama in this political climate. Maybe it's better that we don't lose with a good candidate and save him for a run in 8 years.
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and that Wisconsin's system apportions in such a way that McCain wins most of the delegates even if he only has 50% or so.
The sooner we can put Huckabee to bed, the sooner McCain can start saving his money for the general.