Redstate

Overall small movement, but a few rays of sunshine for pro-lifers

By Adam C Posted in Life Issues — Comments (8) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »

Gallup regularly polls the country on abortion and goes beyond the standard pro-life v. pro-choice question. The most recent survey is up with little overall movement on most questions but a few rays of sunshine for pro-lifers.

See below for some analysis of abortion polling and it's possible consequences for 2008 politics.

First, the baseline question shows almost no long-term movement with 49% of the country reporting themselves as pro-choice and 44% saying pro-life. The nation remains divided. However, the last iteration of the poll showed a 51-41 split which now looks like an outlier. If that's true, then not since 1998 has either side seen a true majority in support of their view.

Second, as Gallup explains:

When it comes to Americans' specific attitudes about the legality of abortion, public opinion is somewhat more conservative than its attachment to these labels would suggest. Nearly 6 in 10 Americans (58%) think abortion should either be limited to only a few circumstances or illegal in all circumstances. Just 4 in 10 (41%) think it should be legal in all or most circumstances.

Third, there is support for the theory that the public shifts their view to be in line with the law. After Roe, the public opinion polls showed a 5-10 point swing in favor of legal abortion. Now after Carhart II, a similar 7 point shift against legalized partial birth abortion occurred. The net opinion on partial birth abortion went from -43 (68-25) to -50 (72-22). This is great news for pro-lifers. If Roe were ever to be overturned, it is possible that views on abortion may shift with the law in favor of pro-lifers.

Fourth, the Democratic field is full of extremists on the issue of abortion. Only 22 to 25 percent of the public thinks partial birth abortion should be legal, much less a Constitutional Right. Yet every Democratic nominee has blasted the Carhart decision. This places the entire group to the far left of the political spectrum on abortion (while Rudy is in the center, and most of the Rs are right-of-center).

Fifth, the "Would you support overturning Roe" question shows signs of movement in the last few years.

Support Overturning 35 (32) (25) (28)
Oppose Overturning 53 (55) (66) (63)

That is still a +18 in favor of Roe but down from the +41 from JAN 2006 and even the +23 from MAY 2006. Gallup does not do any polling to see why the public supports Roe but opposes it's actual holding that abortion-on-demand cannot be outlawed even in a few cases. Without polling on the subject, it seems likely that many people believe overturning Roe will make abortion illegal in all cases (or more cases than an individual voter would like). This misconception is hyped by Planned Parenthood and other pro-choice groups and echoed by many parts of the media.

Finally, there is an important analysis of single issue voters (SIVs) on abortion. There are more single-issue pro-lifers (19%) than pro-choicers (12%) in the country. In the D party, there are similar numbers of both. In the R party, there are many more pro-life SIVs (22%) than pro-choice (8%). Even more important, 34% of pro-choice Rs say abortion is "not a major issue" to them while only 12% of pro-life Rs say the same.

These data seem to suggest that Rudy could not win 22% of R votes, but he could still win the other 78%. Correctly, Rudy is avoiding campaigning as Mr. Pro-Choice because there are not many motivated pro-choice R voters. Even those who agree with Rudy are not particularly motivated by the issue. Thus, Rudy is correctly trying to downplay the issue to help win over those who disagree with him on abortion but agree with him on other issues.

Overall, the survey shows the Roe question getting closer to a plurality than a majority so that pundits would no longer be able to say the meaningless phrase "a majority support Roe." The pro-life/pro-choice numbers settled back into the long-run trend. The SIV analysis shows a pro-lifer gains more SIVs than he loses. And the PBA analysis shows that changes in the law can shift public opinion and thus a reversal of Roe could lead to a more pro-life electorate. All in all, the small movements mask some very hopeful data points for pro-lifers.