A Good Poll for McCain
Has Rudy Peaked?
By Hunter Baker Posted in 2008 — Comments (26) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
A recent poll of 600 likely GOP primary voters by the American Research Group on March 2-5, 2007 turned up the following results:
Giuliani 34%
McCain 30%
Gingrich 12%
Romney 7%
Undecided 9%
Brownback and other notables -- all with about 1% each
The margin of error is + or - 4%. If we take it at face value, then Rudy may face an uphill climb, particularly once McCain and others start slamming him on pro-life. His speech to NARAL in 2001 is a campaign ad waiting to happen.
End story
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A Good Poll for McCain 26 Comments (0 topical, 26 editorial, 0 hidden) Post a comment »
mean nothing, but facts do mean someting. I don't see how his popularity won't go down when the facts come out about him. As far as making this a character based campaign Guiliani seems loses to about everybody when it comes to moral character.
You are right though that Guiliani success right now comes from image. If this campaign is about image than Rudy will do well, at least now.
as a federal prosecutor, mayor of NYC and leader after 9/11 is not image, those are results.
In the area of moral authority or character, that’s something you can’t force on anyone. It’s an individual choice. In other words, although you may find Rudy has no or little moral character you can’t speak for anyone else. Others may agree with you, but they also speak for themselves. However, at the end of the day Rudy has a bank deposit of moral authority with the nation as a whole that is through the roof, because of his results as a federal prosecutor, mayor and post 9/11 leader from the ashes.
Although I don’t consider myself a populist, I find it interesting someone who does doesn’t believe the results of a proven leader aren’t going to take precedence over the personal baggage. I think this is the populist position and why Bill Clinton was able to turn 60% of the country against those perceived to be trying to take him down over personal matters when it was believed he was an effect results leader. (An example of why I’m not a populist because the majority was wrong on both counts).
Rudy is positioned to win 2008 big time because he’s the only populist candidate in the race. No other candidate has a prayer of reaching the broad appeal he has. As pointed out above, only he can destroy it. It’s his to lose. He has the opportunity to use his populist appeal to keep taxes low, reign in spending, stay strong on defense, appoint and get approved federalist judges, make headway in cleaning up Washington and in particular, enforce the law on all those that leaked highly sensitive classified information about legal programs (i.e., the SWIFT program, CIA prison locations for high value terrorists and NSA international intelligence gathering)
Yes, that’s why as a conservative and not a populist I’m more than happy to see him as president. It’s about results, results in moving the conservative agenda forward and holding some people is Washington accountable that are long over due. Rudy would have never been bullied into the non-crime Plame investigation and would have held Burger and Jefferson accountable by now.
“They chose dishonor. They will have war.” - Winston Churchill
a political theory that was formulated to explain people that do not fall into conservative or liberal labels easilly. The way it basically works is people who are social and fiscal conservatives are conservative, those that are fiscally conservative and socially liberal are libertarians, those that are social conservative and fiscal liberals are populists.
I call myself populist conservative because I am a social conservative and a fiscal moderate. To check out a quiz on this, look at ontheissues.org. This is a better political quiz than most. I don't see how you can be a conservative and excited about Rudy, but I guess it is possible.
I think McCain's chief problem isn't that he was once looked at as an outsider and is now looked at as an insider.
I think his chief problem is that he went to great lengths over the past 8 or 9 years (it didn't begin with the Bush presidency) to set aflame the bridges he'd built with various constituencies within the Republican and conservative establishments.
It's one thing to cast yourself as an outsider -- it's another to do it while shooting arrows at the insiders of your own party.
It's about like France and Germany and their efforts to block the liberation of Iraq. It's one thing to decline to take part...it's another to work with some truly wretched governments around the world to try to thwart an ally.
McCain's just reaping what he sowed. And he's trying like the dickens to undo much of what he's done. What I don't think he realized all that time was that, while he was grandstanding against certain things (including the best thing GWB has done as president: lowering taxes), he was only alienating a lot of Republican voters....voters he now needs to count on for support.
It's just my guess, but I think his ego got in the way of his sense. He was miffed about the 2000 election -- and not merely by the way the Bush campaign operated, but by the way the party establishment got so solidly behind GWB. So, he became not only an "outsider" but a frequent critic and thorn-in-the-side of the Bush-led GOP...even allowing widespread speculation that he might join the Democratic ticket in 2004 or run as an independent.
All that said, I don't know that Giuliani can't be beaten. There's a lot of time left and anything can happen.
But it doesn't surprise me in the least that McCain's not getting the easy path to the nomination that many in the beltway thought he'd have. He's finding it hard to cross all these rivers with so many bridges in smoldering ashes.
and the other big bridge McCain burned in addition to taxes was Gitmo. He utterly caved to world opinion. That was his basis for turning on Gitmo, not because anything was illegal but because it was making America look bad.
If he can't stand the international criticism that came with Gitmo how would he respond to the criticism he would receive over his OIF and OEF plans? In both cases he wanted major boots on the ground invasions, far larger than what we did in both cases or are doing now. The international screaming over that would make the complaints over Gitmo look tame.
Although he's not very concerned about what conservatives think of him, he's very concerned about what the press and international community think of him and he's caved to them more than once.
“They chose dishonor. They will have war.” - Winston Churchill
Either one can beat Giuliani right now.
Giuliani does not say a whole lot that inspires me. I liked his comments on Reagan. But I do not believe that Giuliani has Reagan's record for fighting for individual rights as opposed to governmental power. Giuliani was a nanny-state liberal when it came to the way he tried to regulate everything from the cab drivers to the NYC businesses.
Maybe he didn't raise taxes, but he turned governmental regulation into a hobby.
Giuliani also has many failings as a person. The same kinds of failings that Bill Clinton had. Do we really want to have the representative of the Republican Party be someone who has those kinds of problems? Remember, the Democrats no longer tell people what their policies are. They just run on, "well Republicans are all hypocrites because they all oppose abortion and gay marriage and then go out and cheat on their wives and harass teenage boys."
Rudy would pour gasoline on the democrats' #1 weapon right now.
for the times when he shoots himself in the foot. Trouble is, he's so freaking GOOD at it!
If the race between the big 3 makes the eventual winner a better candidate who with proven ability to unite Republicans while appealing to independents, then the two failed candidacies would not have been in vain, and ditto the efforts of their supporters.
Let the best man win!
And if McCain is the man, or Rudy, or Mitt, then I'm for him in the apocalyptic battle with the Hildabeast or the ridiculous one with the Bathing Suit Beau.
Populist,
The rules are different for major presidential candidates. If positions on issues were more important than character, Kerry would have won in 2004. Look at the post-mortems of that campaign. The pros all said that Kerry and his handlers were clueless in spending so much time and energy on positions, while ignoring the attacks on his character until it was too late.
It will be very, very difficult to stop Giuliani if his nomination campaign is based on his "presidential" image and he, personally, avoids a messy public meltdown.
McCain has been the most visible Republican other than George W. Bush since 2002. His publicity has been much more favorable than George W. Bush. His poll numbers lead the President almost since he lost the nomination (since those numbers include Dems). His face is on the cover of ... almost everything.
Giuliani almost disappeared for 4-5 years. Great publicity after 9/11, scant, almost non-existent coverage since then. Since the point that he started talking about the Presidency, his publicity has been largely negative: divorce, divorce, divorce, gun control, NARAL, abortion. Did I mention appearing in drag in public, and those freaking divorces?
So, how is it good news that McCain is 4 points (or 8 points, or 0 points, depending on the spin over the margin of error) BEHIND Rudy? What am I missing?
He's an insider. McCain is a well known guy inside the beltway, not a benefit. Rudy has played his cards will by staying out of the limelight and out of the beltway scuffles.
In presidential elections during "wrong track" years, Americans like outsiders with proven experience and results. It's best for Rudy to position himself outside the current crop of political leadership and then come in wearing the white hat.
McCain's non stop coverage is a big reason why he is no longer an outsider, and is slipping.
“They chose dishonor. They will have war.” - Winston Churchill
paid by the McCain camp. Either that or he has already decided that McCain is the most "electable" republican and is determined to help him in any way possible.
Either way, you are right: broadcasting another poll confirming a candidate's second-place status is a sure sign of desperation.
Next, look for McCain to try to photoshop pictures of Rudy and Hillary to look like they're holding hands.
You are looking to get kicked, buddy. You're charging that a Redstate editor is being paid by McCain without acknowledging it?
You could try addressing the post on the merits. Like I said, the point is that McCain is running pretty close among likely GOP voters. Rudy has yet to endure an onslaught on his positions on social issues. When that comes, McCain could go sailing by. That's the point. He's close and Rudy maybe has peaked.
don't make an accusation like that again absent facts.
"A man can never have too much red wine, too many books, or too much ammunition." -- Rudyard Kipling
Croaker,
The answer is very simple. McCain's principal base of support is commonly called, "Not Republicans".
The polls you cite were not limited to registered Republicans, or even self-identified Republicans. They were of the general public, and tended to have an unusually high proportion of Democrats even for the general public. I.e., the poll results were selected first, and then they did a poll designed to produce those results.
You have to dig hard, and carefully, to find polls of McCain's popularity which are limited to Republicans. Those show his image to be much lower among Republicans than among the general public.
The only thing McCain has going for him among Republicans has been his consistent support for the war. That lasted only until someone with a better image on the war, i.e., Giuliani for his leadership (not merely his positions), came along.
Republicans desperately want a war leader. Giuliani offers both: pro-war, and leader. McCain offers only the former.
John McCain has been running for years and has built up an effective organization at the state level. Rudy doesn't have that organization...at least not yet.
Rudy has a lot of catching-up to do if he wants to steal the Iowa caucus. McCain and Romney have already set up strong grass-roots organizations in Iowa. If Rudy is to win, he will need the kind of support that comes from people who are likely to feel so strongly about a candidate that they go out in the middle of winter to attend a caucus meeting.
Does any here know how long it takes for an Iowa caucus goer to attend a caucus? Is it much longer than voting?
I know the Democrats have a big dog-and-pony show where people have to stand in different parts of the room depending on whom they support and then the field gets winnowed down with each round of voting. But it is my understanding that we (the GOP) just have some kind of "straw ballot". Is that a very quick process? Or does it take hours?
...yet. In just about every straw poll I've seen, Newt seems to be doing well. I wonder if that would pick up steam if he officially threw his hat in the ring.
More so than any other person in the Republican race, Newt will not win a general election...even against Hilary. As a team, let's get over Newt, and use that energy to focus on other candidates.
http://www.michellemalkin.com/
http://listen.family.org/daily/A000000396.cfm
http://corner.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZmM1MzU0OWI0NDg4YjI2ZGY4NzYwZmV...
It now looks like Newt won't be running wonder which candidate will get the most of his supporters. He averages between
12%-18% of the overall likely Republican primary voters.
Take a breath.
Second of all, you are 100% wrong. Newt did this - including the public confession and "repentance," to Drs. Dobson and Falwell, precisely to counter those negatives so that he can run.
Sorry to burst the bubble.
But it obviously won't help him any of course maybe our politicians are becoming more like the French politicians Back in the 1980's I remember when French President Francois Mitterand had a wife and a young mistress with children by both of them and all of it out in the open he served for 21 years winning 3 different 7 year terms in a row. We sure have our share of divorced men running so it may not hurt him after all. By the way just when did this publicly come out I only heard about a few minutes ago. My 80 year old dad loves Newt he will be devastated.
Gingrich's negatives are almost double his positives. And he has the highest negatives of any declared or potential candidate.
http://corner.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZmM1MzU0OWI0NDg4YjI2ZGY4NzYwZmV...
It's been addressed. And he's addressing it, as well.
You can get the latest on both Rudy and McCain at these blogs:
McCain can't beat Giuliani - only Giuliani can. It's an image question. McCain didn't understand how critical it was that he protect his image, which is something that the example of California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger should have taught McCain's handlers.
McCain used to have an image as an outsider. He traded that for an insider image, and this is killing him as a presidential candidate.
Giuliani realized early on that his post-9/11 image was critical and so has been careful not to injure or dilute it, with the result that he became the front-runner immediately after his announcement of candidacy, and with little effort.
Giuliani's public image is that of a strong leader, 9/11 hero, tough, and a very successful political executive in major office. This is as ideal an image as a presidential candidate can hope for.
Too many here think that ideology, positions, etc., are the most important aspects of major presidential candidates. They're not. Character is principally what determines who wins or loses, particularly when the public feels threatened by economic or national security issues.
Giuliani MADE his unbelieveably favorable public image with his performance in office, and only he can unmake it. Media attacks mean nothing provided he keeps his temper and so reinforces his competent leader image.
What makes the GOP race interesting is that he really does have a violent temper and a deserved reputation for vivid public displays of it. So the question is, if Giuliani self-destructs, who will be around to take advantage of it.