Open Thread: Iowa Straw Poll results
By Mark Kilmer Posted in 2008 — Comments (40) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
I don't have the numbers, but here's this (ed: numbers added):
Mitt Romney -- 4516 (31.5%)
Mike Huckabee -- 2587 (18.1%)
Sam Brownback -- 2192 (15.3%)
Tom Tancredo -- 1961 (13.7%)
Ron Paul -- 1305 (9.1%)
Tommy Thompson -- 1039 (7.3%)
Fred Thompson -- 203 (1.4%)
Rudy Giuliani -- 183 (1.3%)
Duncan Hunter -- 174 (1.2%)
John McCain -- 101 (1%)
John Cox -- 41 (0.1%)
14,302 total ballots cast.
Mitt was a foregone conclusion. He doubled Huckabee.
Fred Thompson scored best of the non-competitors in this poll, leading Rudy and McCain.
I hope everyone had fun.
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ADDENDUM: As reported in comments, Marc Ambinder has the numbers. Only 14,203 anted up to vote; in the 1999 Ames Straw poll, won by George W. Bush, 23,685 voted.
That's it. Good night.
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(from Erick)
Hat tip to N.Z. Bear for this perspective. Of course, keep your history in mind. G.W. Bush was a foregone conclusion in 2000 (yes he was and you know it. Save the rage and contrary statements because we all know it's true), but McCain's hard and serious challenge to Bush was unforeseen and Ames didn't help.
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Open Thread: Iowa Straw Poll results 40 Comments (0 topical, 40 editorial, 0 hidden) Post a comment »
Unofficial numbers are at http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/
So who's keeping the "Dead Pool"?
Couple of the candidates who just about lived in Iowa did not do so hot, like "Sam I am". Fred's 7th place for a guy not even in the race is not bad.
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None of the Above !
I believe Mitt had about 31% of the votes.
What gets me is Fred beat Rudy and McCain and he's not even officially in the run!
Thompson/Rice 2008 and Beyond!
I was surprised to see Mike Huckabee come in second! I like Huckabee, he's a good conservative and I would gladly throw my support behind him if he were to somehow get the republican nomination. My only fear is his name, President Huckabee, sounds like a Mark Twain character! Just kidding! Sort of...
Maybe Huckabee/Rice 2008! ? A guy can dream no?
Thompson/Rice 2008 and Beyond!
This guy has no place in the White House. He's never met a tax increase he didn't like and thinks that government can actually solve problems. He won't do much damage in the Senate and he'll replace a Dem.
Your dream is a nightmare.
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CongressCritter™: Never have so few felt like they were owed so much by so many for so little.
Without any busses and without any money, Huckabee still placed 2nd. Apparently many people (social conservatives) do think he is a perfect fit for the White House. And that was validated at Ames today.
I guess they did a pretty good job keeping non-Republicans from voting, heh.
will be the next VICE-President if a Republican is elected next November. He is ideal for that job, especially for a guy like Rudy of Romney to balance the ticket.
post linked above,
Gov Mitt Romney won the 2007 Ames straw poll, receiving 4516 votes, or 31%.
In a surprise, Gov. Mike Huckabee finished second with 2587 votes at 18.1%
11. John Cox with 41 votes.
10. John McCain with 101 votes.
9. Duncan Hunter with 174 votes.
8. Rudy Giuliani with 183 votes.
7. Fred Thomson with 231 votes.
6. Tommy Thompson, 1,009 votes, 7.3%
5. Ron Paul with 1305 votes, and 9.1%
4. Tom Tancredo with 1961 votes, 13.7%.
3. Sen. Sam Brownback with 2192 votes and 15.3%
Iowa state auditor David Vaudt unofficially certified the results.
14,203 ballots were cast.
www.mymanmitt.com
www.race42008.com
Member of Romney for President Faith and Values Steering Committee-an unpaid advisory position, that does not require an endorsement.
This probably means Huckabee will stay in the race for long enough to not run for AR SEN and still come in 4th or 5th in the end. Worst case scenario for the GOP nationally.
Everything else was pretty much as expected.
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Bobby Jindal Saves Louisiana
I agree, I was hoping he'd do badly and drop down to the Senate race. I don't think this will really knock out anybody with the possible exception of T. Thompson. Not much of interest - the numbers of McCain, Rudy and Fred are meaningless.
Adam
Hey Huckabee is perfectly positioned to be someone's VP pick.
He gets along with everyone it seems, is a man of faith, plays a mean base guitar and has that great personal story of loosing all the weight. Huckabee adds to the ticket for any of the realistic top three, Romney, Fred T, or Rudy G. and he appears to get along with all of them. I also think he'd make a good attack dog on the campaign trail against the Donks too.
Only problem I see is that he'd skew the Republicans way South if Fred takes it, which is not so bad if the party goes NE liberal Republican.
Arkansas loss, the nation's gain.
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None of the Above !
A bad finish for Huckabee might have left him as damaged goods, not unlike former VA Gov. Jim Gilmore. This way, he can stay in for a bit, put in a respectable campaign, and still have enough time to run a Senate bid. He's a big name in a small state, so he won't need that long to put together a Senate bid. We have relatively few targets, so plenty of money would go his way. Don't give up yet on Huckabee for Senate.
I don't know all the factors here (certainly having McCain, Rudy, and Fred not there was one of them), but 14,000 is a signifigant drop from the 2000 straw poll. Where's the conservative/Republican enthusiasm?
“.....women and minorities hardest hit”
It seems to me that if campaigns weren't interested in busing people to these kinds of things, they'd quickly dry up entirely.
I am of the opinion that Republicans.....especially Conservatives just simply are not buying this push by this new wave of "career consultants" to change this great process of electing a President in America. Also, on the tradition of the whole process, they just arent paying attention right now.
We will start spending our money, paying attention to the candidates and participating more when ITS TIME TO. And that is after Labor Day. It amazes me how captivated some are with this "new process". I think that it is distrubing the way that we have allowed a group of consultants who just want a paycheck, to change our process. I guess I'm in the Gingrich frame of mind when it comes to this?
All this is without mentioning the candidates. Our front-runners are weak. Mitt's record is, well, not that impressive. Frankly, it was taken apart this morning by Chris Wallace. He hasnt accomplished a thing, and I think that he is a huge opportunist who changes with the political winds to get elected! Rudy, he's been running for 8 years. The rest are insignificant.
Fred will get in, WHEN ITS TIME TO. And he will be the alternative who can crush Hillary in debates and expose her for the liberal/socialist that she is. The others I feel would be forced to be on defense too much to mount the attack needed to beat her.
Ames is NO indication of the Repulican efforts in 08. Lets see what happens to Daddy War-Bucks lead after this week? Rudy and Thompson coming to town.
Mitt is the GQ, Opportunist who thinks that his looks and his loot can get him to Penn. Ave..
This is the happiest Mitt has been since 1992 when the Supreme Court voted 5-4 to uphold Roe in Planned Parenthood -v- Casey.
-exits
That a bunch of pundits are wrong is not news.
Mike Gamecock DeVine @ The Charlotte Observer
www.race42008.com
www.hinzsightreport.com
www.theminorityreportblog.com
"One man with courage makes a majority" - Andrew Jackson
this thing. He paid the most and he put in the most face time.
Note: I'm not detracting from Romney's victory. As I've said, this thing was a fundraiser which is reported as something it is not and cannot be.
It's an August event, and there's no one in a ditch this year.
Mike Gamecock DeVine @ The Charlotte Observer
www.race42008.com
www.hinzsightreport.com
www.theminorityreportblog.com
"One man with courage makes a majority" - Andrew Jackson
Huckabee: A big win, people will be talking about this
Fred Thompson: A good sized win
Romney: A draw, not enough of a margin to close the door, but big enough to leave him as the Iowa front runner
Brownback: Small negative, finishing behind Huckabee is bad, but he is in the top 3, so he probably isn't out yet.
McCain: No surprise, so the negative will be lessened.
Guiliani: This hurts- not only did he lose, which was expected, but he lost to Thompson. Of course, he will still stay the front-runner nationally though, but he missed a chance for momentum in Iowa.
Overall:
Expect the debate to heat up between Romney and Huckabee as to who is the the best candidate for the conservatives.
Romney's advantage will be on fiscal issues. Huckabee's on social issues.
There was that attack on Brownback's Catholicism from a Huckabee supporter- will a whisper campaign against Mormons appear or will Huckabee choose the high road and trust to his soft spoken Southern style?
If there is an attack on Mormons, will it backfire, or will it cripple Mitt?
Winner: the IA Republican Party raised some money.
Loser: the IA Republican Party, they only got less than half the number of folks to show up an pay as they did in 1999.
As for the candidates, some of them will try to spin something out of this. Bottom line, it's about as important as the election for prom queen at the Ames high school homecoming. This is worth absolutely nothing.
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CongressCritter™: Never have so few felt like they were owed so much by so many for so little.
Mike Gamecock DeVine @ The Charlotte Observer
www.race42008.com
www.hinzsightreport.com
www.theminorityreportblog.com
"One man with courage makes a majority" - Andrew Jackson
Though I'd give an honorable mention to the McCain and Giuliani campaigns, for abstaining to suck all the joy out of this for Romney, at least in the press.
Mike Gamecock DeVine @ The Charlotte Observer
www.race42008.com
www.hinzsightreport.com
www.theminorityreportblog.com
"One man with courage makes a majority" - Andrew Jackson
Mike Gamecock DeVine @ The Charlotte Observer
www.race42008.com
www.hinzsightreport.com
www.theminorityreportblog.com
"One man with courage makes a majority" - Andrew Jackson
How many millions of dollars did Romney spend to get only 4516 votes? That's a whopping $xxx per voter. Gov. Huckabee came out of nowhere to finish strong. He's supposed to be on Face the Nation tomorrow to discuss his stronger than expected showing.
the less than expected jobs created every month since Bush was inaugurated. The unemployment rate is near historic lows. The problem is with the "expecters."
Mitt won
Mike Gamecock DeVine @ The Charlotte Observer
www.race42008.com
www.hinzsightreport.com
www.theminorityreportblog.com
"One man with courage makes a majority" - Andrew Jackson
I didn't pay much attention to any predictions. but given the other big players were out and Romney poured so much money in and supposedly had such a great organization, it seems he'd be disappointed getting less than 1/3 of the votes. I realize the situation is weird and the rules were weird, but I fail to see this as a huge Romney victory. Maybe it will parlay into a caucus victory later - it seems like this was the point for him. Perhaps some lessons learned here will pay off down the road.
Mike Gamecock DeVine @ The Charlotte Observer
www.race42008.com
www.hinzsightreport.com
www.theminorityreportblog.com
"One man with courage makes a majority" - Andrew Jackson
I think Brownback's running for 2012, so he'll probably keep at it to position himself as well as possible for trying to stop President Clinton's second term.
Although the total number of votes cast in 2007 was substantially smaller than 1999, Romney won with almost the same percentage of the votes as President Bush.
Curious...
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“Well, the trouble with our liberal friends is not that they are ignorant, but that they know so much that isn't so.” – Ronald Reagan
when combined scored more votes than Romney. If they weren't splitting the social conservative vote between them, one of them might easily have come out on top. That ought to be VERY discouraging for the Romney campaign. In order to compete with Rudy and Thompson, they have do to much better with social conservatives, but those votes are being siphoned off by Huck and Sammy B.
I should also add that while I've been a huge Brownback fan for the last two or three election cycles, I don't think I've ever seen a candidate who communicates so poorly. He's been awful in all of the debates and his stump speech is delivered in a difficult-to-listen-to monotone. I'm amazed (though very grateful) that he actually won a senate campaign.
Look at those names from 1999. How can anyone seriously say that the field is weaker this year than a year where Elizabeth frickin' Dole was a third place finisher, and four of the top five finishers had never held elective office.
You have to drop all the way down to Cox on that list this year to get someone who hasn't served in the Congress or as a Governor.
It's a pretty good crop when the second-worst experienced candidate is a guy who's one of the MOST trusted on foreign policy.
does anyone really care about this these days?